If you think Hillary has a chance still, prove it. I want the path to victory, the math to get there

[PresidentObama]

I did one of these threads before Pennsylvania and got barely any answers.

So let's try this again...

Hillary supporters, lay out how she win's the nomination.

I want the path to victory including the math (yes, math) behind how she'll pull it off.

Do you honestly think she can win 68% of every one of the remaining states? Didn't she only break 60% in one state?

So let's hear it. Make me a believer. And do the impossible...

Show me how Hillary Rodham Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee...

EDIT: Make sure your answers are realistic and logical. And if she say something stupid like "Same way Obama does, get to 2025" tell me how she gets to 2025. Seems to me she doesn't have a way to get there...

[Ravy]

1. The rest of the superdelegates vote for her.

There you go.

[Triana]

2. And how realistic is that? n/t

[PresidentObama]

5. Not realistic at all.

[Ravy]

17. The remaining SDs are waiting for something.

Which indicates to me that they will probably vote in blocks...one or more.

I think the most *likely* scenario is that Pelosi's block of voting for whoever has the most pledged delegates, thereby completely punting their role in the process (a tactic Pelosi is familiar with).

But let's say they are waiting for what Gore says. If 200 of the remaining SDs are holding out just to see what he says, and he says Clinton, then *boom* Clinton is back on top.

I don't know what dynamics are out there, but I hear lots of rumblings about a Pelosi block of delegates waiting for her word.

[grantcart]

91. except the 5 that went for Obama so far today

including one that had been for Clinton

[Ravy]

8. Doesn't take all of the rest of them. Until Obama reaches 2025, it is possible.

Some might say it is likely, but I don't fall into that camp.

[tekisui]

144. He needs only 31 more to effectively remove enough from the undecided

pool of Superdelegates to make it impossible for her to reach 2025. Unless, of course they start switching from Obama to Clinton, ut I don't see that happening.

[Ravy]

239. I could see it happening if Obama loses NC and Indiana.

That would be devistating. I think he will win NC though. Perhaps Indiana, too... and if he blows her out there then I think the floodgates will open up with SDs for Obama.

[jaysunb]

6. Is that likely to happen ?

Seems like the supers are gravitating to Sen. Obama. :shrug:

[olkaz]

9. Give the guy a break, he just answered the question.

[AllentownJake]

7. That's about the only way

and SD are not an organized group as the past 5 days have shown us.

[krispos42]

25. there are only 294 SDs left

52% of SDs are for Clinton

52% of PDs are for Obama

PDs outnumber SDs 4:1


Get a fork.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

162. One dark green.

That's all you need to know.

[MonkeyFunk]

3. The same exact way Obama gets the nomination

Gain enough superdelegates to secure it.

[Blarch]

221. But hillary keeps crying about 'counting the votes'

How can her path to victory include tossing these votes in the trash ?

If the SD side with her...then the peoples votes will be ignored.

[PBS Poll-435]

4. Math?

:rofl:

[MADem]

10. Superdelegates can do what they want, too. Even if they make a promise, you know, like Bill

Richardson did.

When those pesky "facts on the ground" change, well, it's man the lifeboats, desert the sinking ship. It can happen.

[PresidentObama]

13. How can the facts on the ground change enough to make Hillary the nominee?

[PBS Poll-435]

14. I think they already are....

[PresidentObama]

16. How? n/t

[PBS Poll-435]

20. If you can't feel the seismic shift...

[PresidentObama]

24. Seems to me Obama is still ahead in delegates, popular vote, and closed the gap with SD's.

And oh, he's leading in NC and tied in IN.

What shift?

[PBS Poll-435]

27. Haha...Just wait a few days

[PresidentObama]

30. Really? She can win the total number of delegates and the popular vote in a few days?

Really, now? How?

[PBS Poll-435]

40. Haha...

It must SUCK to be on the Obama side lately.

This is from InTrade



If you "feel" that Obama is STILL going to win, then it is time to make some $$$

[PresidentObama]

45. Intrade means what in the big picture? Oh, nothing. Thanks.

[PBS Poll-435]

51. Usually a pretty good indicator of the mood.

Their 2006 results speak for themselves.

[PresidentObama]

53. What's next? Going to use an AOL poll as an example?

Keep dreaming.

[PBS Poll-435]

55. Do you know what InTrade is?

[PresidentObama]

59. Yes. And it definitely doesn't mean shit in the big picture. At all.

Not even in the least bit.

Desperation...it drives one to great lengths.

[PBS Poll-435]

60. If you say so....

:rofl:

[PresidentObama]

62. I know so.

[PBS Poll-435]

71. Good Luck in NC & IN!

[PresidentObama]

75. Thank you :)

[stevenleser]

192. How is it you explained the math again?

Oh yeah, you didnt.
:eyes:

Please tell me you aren't in any engineering discipline. I wouldnt want to drive over any bridge you designed or use any electrical circuit you engineered.

[PBS Poll-435]

228. Wow...Who are you?

:eyes:

This isn't about *math*.

People's opinions change.

Circumstances change.

And we are NOT going to get saddled with a loser again.


If it was about math (and saving face,) the SDs would have announced in lockstep by now. (But they haven't.)

[RainDog]

229. Obama is the winner, according to this math

which I would tend to trust, looking at the voting splits thus far... and b/c the negative campaigning from Clinton just digs her grave a little faster. that's her "big mo."

via The Politico at HuffPo-

Currently Obama is credited with 1737 delegates (pledged and super) and Clinton is credited with 1598 delegates. Of the 795 Super Delegates only 272 haven't indicated for whom they intend to vote.

As such, assuming the remaining pledged delegates break 50/50 -- which given our system of proportional allocation is nearly certain to be at least roughly accurate -- then Clinton would need to win 206 of the remaining 272 Super Delegates to win. In other words, she would need to convince 75.7% of the remaining undecided Super Delegates. This would require her to gain more than 3 of the undecided for every one that Obama picks up. This is essentially impossible and this is why the race is really over. The only think Hillary Clinton can do at this point is continue to damage Obama by (1) attacking his qualifications to serve ("he's not ready" "he's not fit to be Comander and Chief"), (2) providing opposition research to the Republicans (see today's article in HuffPost), (3) making Obama waste campaign cash fighting Clinton instead of McCain, and (4) spliting the Dem and dragging the race out where her followers won't be willing to vote for Obama.

[PBS Poll-435]

230. Um...Thanks for sharing!

lol

[stevenleser]

233. You are welcome. Somone has to be grounded in reality. You obviously arent towing the line

:eyes:

[stevenleser]

231. So, the OP asked about what is your math solution for Hillary and you don't have one.

Just clearing that up. Thanks.

BTW, "Who am I" That question reminded me of someone I know who asked on what date Cinco de Mayo was. I'm the guy that uses his real name on his posts. That's who I am.

[mtnsnake]

67. Why did you even bother to ask anyone if all you're gonna do is reply with feeble snark?

You just got handed a dose of reality by the above poster, so what's the problem?

[Terran]

92. All he's gotten is feebleness in reply

"Seismic shift", that one was particularly good. The dude asked for numbers and all he gets is spin. I think the question has been answered.

[demon67]

57. Huh?

Going from an 81% chance of winning the nomination to a 76% chance of winning sucks? I imagine Hillary wished that her prospects "sucked" that much. No matter how you do the math, 76% is a lot better than 24%. If you think Hillary is going to win, then the really money-making opportunity is out there for you. You could quadruple your money by August at the latest.

[PBS Poll-435]

65. :-)

Can you see a trend?

[PresidentObama]

76. Obama still leading? Yes! What a trend! n/t

[PBS Poll-435]

81. And falling like a rock.

[PresidentObama]

83. 75% change of winning is falling? Oh, ok.

[PBS Poll-435]

85. From 82-85% last week? Yeah. Falling

[PresidentObama]

87. So what's at Hillary at? Percent, please? And again, InTrade means nothing.

But ok.

[PBS Poll-435]

88. She is up by the same amount Obama is down! Go figure.

:-)

[stevenleser]

193. Let me always do so badly.

:rofl:

[RichardRay]

126. Do you know what a 'trend' is?

From your use of the term it sure doesn't seem like it. Be careful with sharp knives, you can cut yourself.

[PBS Poll-435]

129. Why so bitter?

[RichardRay]

143. Not bitter, just careful with the terms and concepts I work with.

'Trend' is a technical term, the word means what it means, not what you or I want it to mean. What you're referring to is not a trend, it's new data. You have some more work to do to establish the existence of a trend, and you haven't done it.

You can snark back and forth with people with whom you disagree, I take no issue with that. When you use a well defined term incorrectly, though, it's not just snarking anymore.

[PBS Poll-435]

148. Trend - Noun

American Heritage Dictionary

n.
1. The general direction in which something tends to move. <---------
2. A general tendency or inclination. See Synonyms at tendency.
3. Current style; vogue: the latest trend in fashion.

[RichardRay]

157. Trend analysis - the process of distinguishing between...

statistically significant changes and random behavior. Consult you statistics book.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
on edit - I see where the disconnect is. I don't like the word trend unless that data change has been shown to be non-random, that's the statistical definition. You're happy with the work to refer to any change in a data point. I don't like that, but I'll grant you the difference in perspective.

In my little world of data and statistics, if x = 45% yesterday and x = 46% today that's definitely a change, but I don't recognize it as a trend unless there's a lot of data points before yesterday and I can put a line through them all nad look at how the data has clustered around the line and establish that the change between yesterday and today is greater than the random changes seen in the past.

So, I'm a nerd, you aren't. One of us is lucky...

[JackORoses]

64. so Obama is at 75%, what is Lil' Hilly at again?

[PBS Poll-435]

68. Lil' Hilly is Movin' On Up!

[JackORoses]

90. I see you are embarrassed to actually post her number

That says it all.

[PBS Poll-435]

95. Oh...I thought it was rhetorical...

If Obama is at 75% and falling, then Clinton is at about 25% and rising.

[kmsarvis]

70. Wow ! I cant believe it !

He's down to a piddly 74% chance of winning the nomination !!

[PBS Poll-435]

73. And Dropping Precipitiously...

[eridani]

109. So, he's dropped from 82% chance to 74% chance?

Where does that leave Clinton?

[PBS Poll-435]

110. Rising. Fast

[eridani]

111. How's the weather on your planet?

Do the unicorns bite?

[PBS Poll-435]

112. Do you deny that she is rising and Obama is sinking at this moment?

[eridani]

113. Yes. The drop has leveled off at 76%. Not seeing any further downward trend

[PBS Poll-435]

116. It is at 74.2 at this very minute

[haymakeragain]

118. What's Hillarious' number?

Just curious.

[PBS Poll-435]

121. 25. Up about 10 pts in a week.

[haymakeragain]

123. Wow, basically 75 to 25? Are you bragging or complaining?

Can't tell.

[PBS Poll-435]

124. You can't feel the shift?

[haymakeragain]

136. I feel a bowel movement coming on, is that what you mean?

75-25 is a shift? And besides, it's just some kind of bookie site isn't it? doesn't mean much.

[PBS Poll-435]

139. No.. Up ten for Clinton, down ten for Obama.

That is a huge shift that mirrors the Rasmussen & Gallup daily tracking polls.

[haymakeragain]

140. It's 75-25 and you're gleeful?

You got the wrong kind of hope.

[PBS Poll-435]

141. Up 10% in a week is evidence of a huge shift.

[haymakeragain]

142. 75-25 is what is huge.

The shift you are refering to is reletively small and will be short lived when the public is reminded of just who is who and what is what. when the fog of bullshit lifts, it will settle.

It's only a bookie page right?

[PBS Poll-435]

146. :-)

On to Guam!

[haymakeragain]

171. ;-)

On to Oregon.

[PBS Poll-435]

172. The Beaver State!

[haymakeragain]

174. Careful,

Your treading on thin ice there. But I get your meaning. Good one.

[dbmk]

201. One person can move those numbers in 10 mins.

[PseudoIntellect]

220. LOL. Today I learned that getting 5 superdelegate endorsements is not a shift compared to Intrade.

Intrade shifts are FAR more important than real delegates. By far!!!

[eridani]

108. I think the OP wanted to COUNT it, not just feel it n/t

[PBS Poll-435]

114. Um...Yeah. OK

[stevenleser]

194. Yes, and your delegate math again?

oh, sorry, I know you don't want to talk about that.

:eyes:

[PBS Poll-435]

240. Right.

Since you asked nicely.



Ignore the winning percentage for Guam. She will, however, recieve 3 or 4 delegates.

[MADem]

26. Well, take a look at the Dean Scream, for example.

The Wright Blight hasn't helped Senator Obama.

[electron_blue]

74. Delegates who already "endorsed" can still change their mind.

Just bcs they came out for Obama or Clinton doesn't mean a damn thing, ultimately. They can still change their mind. I think that's what the poster meant.

[tammywammy]

69. What promise did Richardson make?

He says he never promised to not endorse Obama.

[MADem]

179. That's what he says. Apparently there are a number of people who say he isn't telling the truth. NT

[tammywammy]

181. I've only heard Bill Clinton say he promised something

And, well, sorry, Richardson is much much higher on the truthfulness scale than Bill Clinton.

[MADem]

184. If you want to believe that, well, that's your choice. NT

[futureliveshere]

150. Richardson had not publicly endorsed. Just because "wagging finger" says so doesnt make it real.

[MADem]

180. His word was not his bond. That's not how it's done, though. He'll pay for it. NT

[futureliveshere]

191. Thats a ridiculous argument Maddy and you know it.

Just because Bill says something, give me ONE reason to believe that man?

[MADem]

199. No, I won't.

You believe what you want. I find you to be a mendacious, simply because you are a partisan. Have a nice day.

[futureliveshere]

213. You won't because you CAN'T

I adored the Clintons. I was a huge supporter of Bill and Hillary for a long time. They lost me through their own actions. I did not read RW talking points thrown at me. All I had to do was open my eyes and ears and listen to what the said.

If you are making a claim that I am mendacious because I am partisan then what does that make you, "Mega-Mendacious"?

[Lucky 13]

156. You're damn skippy!!

And just wait... MANY people who endorsed Hillary are about to switch sides. Thank you Joe Andrew.

[MADem]

182. Flabby little whiner, that fellah. But hey, you dig on it if it keeps ya warm! NT

[Lucky 13]

203. Why when intellectual people choose her opponent do you attack them for their LOOKS?

Do you not have ANYTHING to say about the SUBSTANCE of his argument? Did you READ his letter?

But FINE. If that's the level you're at, FINE. If it's a battle of looks you want, BRING IT:

[MADem]

204. Keep whining. That's all we hear from your team. NT

[Lucky 13]

207. Still not hearing you say ANYTHING intellegent....

I won't hold my breath.

[MADem]

210. Lucky, I don't want to talk to you anymore.

So keep holding your breath till you turn blue, for all I care. You haven't had anything to say but the usual partisan back and forth bullshit, and this is a waste of time.

So, see ya.

[LakeSamish706]

11. And this video needs to be kept kicked as well... This should dump any...

chance that she might have had (slim to none) down to zilch...

I can't believe she said this!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pypZVJQt1Tg

[MonkeyFunk]

35. In typical Obama like fashion

that video is a lie.

It excludes the rest of her sentence to make it appear she said something other than what she did.

If you guys couldn't lie, you'd have nothing to post about.

[LakeSamish706]

47. Do you mean to tell me they did something like they did to Rev. Wright?

Took something out of context, how dare they do that at Fox Noise? It servers her right for going on the Bill O'Reily show in the first place.

[MonkeyFunk]

89. Wrong

That doesn't mitigate the fact that you posted a blatant lie. But don't worry, I'm not upset. I've come to expect it from Obama fans. It's your main form of argument.

[otohara]

80. What Did She Say

prior?

I can't watch O'Really under any circumstances.

[NatBurner]

159. sucks, don't it?

[MADem]

186. It's pretty interesting how that works.

They're like little gremlins who are the antithesis of HOPE CHANGE BELIEVE. They embarrass themselves, with the personal insults directed at Clinton, the childishness, and the inability--the woeful inability--to engage on the issues.

[Cruzan]

36. "Rich people, God bless us, we deserve all the opportunities..."

What did she say after 'opportunities'?

[PBS Poll-435]

131. ROFL

That is freaking hillarious.

[cali]

12. sure. She comes with in a couple of points in NC or beats him there

wins solidly in IN, blows him out in KY and WV and comes close in OR. The SDs flock to her, and presto, she's the nominee. If they think Obama has imploded, they won't go with him. Simple as that.

[DangerDave921]

15. Math is not the issue

Of course she can't catch him in primaries. The issue is whether she -- and a compliant media -- can make the SD's nervous enough about Obama's chances in November to decide that Obama is not a viable candidate. If Hillary wins Indiana and NC, it will be a close call.

That's how it can happen. No math necessary.

Of course the SD's have to worry about their own upcoming elections if they go against Obama.

[PresidentObama]

19. The only way she can make them "nervous" enough about Obama is to slime him.

And if it gets much worse than it is now, I don't see how any SD would want to join her sinking ship.

[DangerDave921]

34. agreed

She can only do so much herself before it backfires.

BUT: If the media keeps up the firestorm of Wright it will help her.

ALSO: If the black vote now backs away from Obama a little bit, under the theory that Obama is attacking Wright and cozying up to the white establishment, then Hillary could use that to show the SD's that Obama is losing his core. NC will be a big sign of whether this happens or not.

Hillary is walking a tight-rope. Her chances are clearly less than 50% but she is not out of this at all, depending on what happens over the next week. If Obama wins NC comfortably, I think it's all but over.

[newmajority]

29. Superdelegates are party insiders. They aren't going to be swayed by the whore media.

If they are, they deserve to be voted out of office as well (at least those who hold an elected office. And that would be a good portion of them)

[MADem]

32. And they also aren't going to back a clear loser. They're not stupid.

The idea is to win the White House, not stand on principles as they're swept out to sea.

[newmajority]

44. That's why they're all abandoning the SS Hillary

They can see the iceberg coming.

(Yeah I know about the 4 pickups in New York. They just want to get rid of her.)

[MADem]

102. You cling to that, idea like a gun or your 'worldview,' if it makes you feel good. nt

[SeaLyons]

18. Win in IN and NC...

SD's will flock to Hillary. It will be over for Obama. Math or no math.

[AllentownJake]

21. Dreaming

2 states does not a race make

[SeaLyons]

43. that's right....

but we're not talking about 2 states overall, are we?

[AllentownJake]

78. Right

We are talking about 50 states and a race for delegates.

[Tellurian]

82. No, we're talking about the popular vote..

If Hillary overwhelmingly get the Popular vote in NC, Indy and the rest of the primary states...she will be the designated nominee.

[PresidentObama]

23. Poll numbers in IN and NC, please? And even if she wins by huge margins, who would still be ahead?

And justify how they would flock to her? They didn't after PA...

[SeaLyons]

46. did they flock in large numbers to Obama - No!

They are waiting - what do you think they're waiting for??

[PresidentObama]

48. Didn't answer any of my questions--thanks though. Next.

[TheDudeAbides]

22. True Democracy? Do we get a revote in Florida & Michigan?

...or is this just another corrupt election like when Busch "defeated" Gore?

[PresidentObama]

33. Hillary: FL or MI don't count for anything.

Words. They can bite you in the ass.

[TheDudeAbides]

41. Democracy: not to be decided by Hillary *or* Obama

this is none of Clintons or Obamas or DNC's business.
Everyone gets to vote in a Democracy.
They don't get to decide what the definition of Democracy is.

[PresidentObama]

50. Florida nor Michigan count. And it's there fault. So get over it.

Whether or not they benefit either candidate, they shouldn't be counted.

And it's too late for a revote.

[TheDudeAbides]

58. DNC Primary: not Democratic

then you agree that the DNC brokered a non-Democratic "election".
No matter who wins this primary, it is a complete joke.
3rd world countries come closer to counting each person's vote.

The people have not rights. This is a great start for Obama *and* Clinton.

[PresidentObama]

61. Florida and Michigan sealed their own fates.

[TheDudeAbides]

77. A true leader would correct corruption by state leaders & candidates

A non-biased leader (Dean?) should step up and ensure Democracy prevails.
A corrupt leader would point the finger and let it slide.
If the shoe fits...

leaders chosing corruption over Democracy.

[newmajority]

63. Florida & Michigan broke the rules. Why should they get a do-over?

Now I realize the voters in those states didn't break the rules. But y'all DID vote to put DLC'ers in office, who DID break the rules deliberately, in an attempt to create an early Hillary coronation. Which got cancelled anyway, thank God.

If you COULD talk the DNC into a do-over, how would it be done? A "privatized" election, paid for by Hillary's corporate donors? A Diebolded primary, with Mush Limpdick fucking around in the process again?

If it were up to me, I'd say do a caucus in each state. Low cost, no electro-fraud, do it on Saturday night after sundown, so the maximum possible number of people can participate, and leave it in the hands of the voters as to who shows up.

[TheDudeAbides]

86. Democracy is about the People...not the elected leaders

This is a People's Government.
There must be a revote whereby ever person has the opportunity to vote.
Otherwise, let's be real and stop calling this a Democratic process.
While we're at it, "Democratic Party" name no longer applies either.

For all we know, Obama will win these states by big margins.
Then...and only then, can we have a nominee that we *ALL* can support.

[stevenleser]

224. Only half right. Democracy is about the people electing leaders to execute decisions and policy

and unfortunately, when the state leaders break federal policy, there are consequences.

[TheDudeAbides]

227. Funny how it's ok for Republican state legislature to screw up Demo Primaries

...and nobody steps in to say that's not democracy.

[stevenleser]

232. You dont really want me to get MadFloridian on your case to explain how wrong you are, do you?

Here is a hint, look at his Journal. The Democrats in the state legislature voted to support the Republicans in Florida in moving the primary. Had they not done that, the DNC would not have punished them.

[TheDudeAbides]

241. Dean destroys the people's Democracy as punishment for naughty state leaders

"Had they not done that, the DNC would not have punished them."

Great, so they punished the people by outlawing Democracy.
The People don't get to vote and that somehow is supposed to punish the leaders who screwed up.

By the people and for the people.
I can't believe you people are not outraged by this!
Oh yea...I almost forgot...your candidate winning is more important than Democracy.
Kinda reminds me of O-dinga's "election". Oh...btw...Dick Morris himself was involved
in that lovely exhibition of true Democracy too. I guess it was just a warm-up for
the destruction of Democratic process in our "Democratic" party's primary.

Scottie, beam me up, there's no Democracy here.

[VotesForWomen]

235. yeah, and the SDs and party leaders can do whatever they want. deal with it.

[stevenleser]

238. That is the nature of representative democracy. Are you just learning this now?

:eyes:

[harun]

237. Go back to grade school. We live in a representative republic and for

good reason.

[mtnsnake]

28. Just another dumbass post by you. How the fuck do you prove something that "you think"?

Have you ever heard of the role that Super Delegates play in this, Senator, when NEITHER one of our candidates can get enough pledged delegates to win the nomination on their own?

[PresidentObama]

37. Instead of blasting my post, you could simply answer the question.

Or get out, and post another thread to gain attention to feed your internet ego.

[mtnsnake]

39. Why are you always accusing people of looking for attention? That reeks of your jealousy, Senator

BTW, who are you for this week? (snicker)

[PresidentObama]

42. Answer my OP instead of attacking me and making silly remarks.

Namecalling doesn't prove shit.

[mtnsnake]

54. Did you forget

all those times you attacked my threads out of your sheer jealousy and for no other reason than that? It was YOU who initiated each and every one of those lame attacks on my threads in the past...always with your same feeble reason, claiming the "starved for attention" thing. Funny about that.

What comes around goes around, Senator, tsk tsk

Getting back to the subject, do you realize the role that Super Delegates play, like I asked you two posts ago, or would you rather just whine about my valid question?

[PresidentObama]

72. Oh my dear god, jealousy? You take the internet too seriously...

And how many SD's would Clinton need to win?

And Obama?

And whose leading in NC and IN? Poll numbers?

Finally, what was the SD count three months ago compared to today?

[mtnsnake]

79. Yes, jealousy. BTW, Senator, are you actually saying that some "math" rules Hillary out?

If the math ruled her out, then she would no longer be in it, genius.

[PresidentObama]

84. Not really. Huckabee was still in the GOP race when the math was 100% against him.

[mtnsnake]

93. Huckabee was far far behind, and the Republicans system is different

Plus, it was inevitable that McCain was going to get their nomination over time, while in our case, neither one of our candidates can get enough pledged delegates to win it. That's why this will be determined by the Super Delegates as long as neither of our candidates backs out. I don't believe that the Repukes have a Super Delegates rule like we do, thus one of them only needed 1100+ delegates or something like that.

Do I like our rule? Fuck no, but that's the rules, so you can't blame either one of them for staying in it to the end.

[PresidentObama]

96. I don't blame Hillary for staying in, it's her right.

And she is more than welcome to stay in. Whether I or others like it or not.

You seem to miss the point where I think Hillary is the stronger candidate.

I came to the conclusion a month ago she couldn't win.

I know it'll take Obama winning the nomination to make that conclusion a reality for some of you, and that's fine. I did this thread to get response and replies on how exactly she can get to the nomination. Because I don't think she has a logical way there...

If she did, you'd see me 'flip-flopping' (which seems to be what you think I do, but whatever) again.

But I don't see that happening. Barack Obama will be a fine President, don't you think?

:)

[mtnsnake]

99. Because of the way our system is set up, she'd be crazy NOT to stay in it now

I did some checking on the numbers needed to secure the nomination. For Repukes it's 1191 and for Dems it's 2026. So if you're "doing the math", that's why it's impossible for one of ours to win by the number of pledged delegates, but we've known that for quite a while because Hillary and Barack have been so close in the race that neither one of them could get enough advantage to win enough pledged delegates. Ususally, one candidate eventually blows one or the other away, but this time around it didn't happen. The Super Delegates rule was initiated for this very purpose, when two candidates are this close in the running. Like I said, I don't care for the rule at all, but that's the rule, and if the shoe was on the other foot, Obama wouldn't be quitting either. Nobody would.

Barack Obama will be a fine President, don't you think?

If he wins the nomination, yeah, I think he'll be fine and I'll be happy we won. I'll especially be happy for Black people, too, as it will be a great thing for African Americans. In the meantime, my preferred candidate still has something to say about it. If she wins, I'll be delighted, and I'll be especially happy for women, too, that it happened.

[PresidentObama]

104. I certainly would prefer Hillary as the nominee....However...

I think the writing on the wall is clear, and that Obama will be the nominee.

Which is why I switched my support. Maybe that was premature, and I've been attacked for that. But I felt it was the right thing to do, and I was happy to come to terms with the fact he was going to be the nominee.

Obviously if Hillary pulls off a miracle and somehow (which how, I don't know) wins the nomination, you won't see me complaining. I think she's a strong candidate. I just happen to think Obama is going to be the nominee, I've made my peace with that, and I'm looking forward to the General Election.

In all honesty, I wish John Edwards would have stayed in till the end like Hillary and Obama did. I don't think he would have necessarily won, but at least I wouldn't have felt any conflict on who to support and etc.

:P

[Avalux]

31. I've been reading these replies with amusement. Apparently math is not a factor.

Hillary supporters are living in some sort of la-la land by refusing to acknowledge it's next to impossible for her to get to the magic number.

Remember how Hillary mocked Obama's supporters by saying we believe the heavens will open up and everything will be wonderful, blah, blah, blah?

Isn't it funny; the only way Hillary can win is to have exactly that happen.

[PresidentObama]

38. At least they're replying this time. Just not with answers.

[woolldog]

56. She can't.

She would have to get a super-majority of superdelegates. And that's not going to happen.

So they're just taking out their frustrations by bashing the democratic nominee and weakening him for the GE. What patriots they are.

[mdmc]

49. Easy... Obama pulls a Spitzer and HRC is still standing

no math required

[PresidentObama]

52. How realistic is that? Maybe should pick up on the National Enquirer story I saw yesterday.

"Obama Cheating"

Seriously, if that's the only way she can win...

Fork, please. She's done.

[mdmc]

66. Hillary might sic the BigDog on Michelle

Obama won't be able to handle the betrayal!

[spooky3]

94. Realistically, NEITHER of them can win enough total delegates to secure the nomination

unless there is massive switching by supers after this point. If the DNC pressures delegates to decide before the convention all bets are off for EITHER candidate. Or, if Clinton (or Obama) convinces enough superdelegates that s/he is the better candidate, including some who have already declared for the other candidate, either could win. If, for example, one of the candidates has a major f***up in the coming weeks, OR if one does MUCH better than the others in the remaining primaries, those supers could get off the fence or change their minds from the prior declaration. Nothing in the rules prohibits this. In fact, that's why the party put the superdelegate system into the mix in the first place -- to try to prevent a landslide if the primaries have produced a candidate likely to lose.

If this does not happen, and neither has a majority on the first vote at the convention (because some supers abstain, because Edwards delegates decide not for one candidate or the other), on the second ballot, any delegate (super or not) can vote however s/he wishes.

So there's your "proof" -- there are several possible paths. If you get away from DU and read sites that have a more balanced view of things (and more technical info about the nomination process) you'll see that the candidates are neck-and-neck and either could win at this point. It depends on what happens over the next few weeks.

[GihrenZabi]

97. Answer the question

No one has. Show how many delegates the person gets and from where - and assume the superdelegates split.

Right now, that's the best guess you can make as they're, what, 19 SD's apart?

Someone who knows how, make a reasonable scenario of PD distribution based on the election yet to be held. Show that Hillary can win the majority of PD's. Anyone who thinks the SD's are going to override the will of the people is delusional.

So it comes down to PD's and nothing else.

Now will someone answer the question rather than everyone sniping back and forth? If it can't be done, just say so.

[spooky3]

98. I answered the question and PROVIDED MULTIPLE PATHS.

It is NOT NECESSARY for Clinton to win the majority of PD's in order to win. And Obama can't ensure victory if he does - though if he wins most of them AND a lot more superdelegates declare for him, he's got a better shot than she does.

Why don't you bone up on the rules of the nomination process?

To make it easier for you:

1) Obama has 1737 total delegates, by one count: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html.
2) A candidate must have 2024 delegates to be the nominee.
3) He's currently short nearly 300 delegates.
4) < 400 p. delegates remain to be chosen in the upcoming primaries.
5) He's not likely to win all of them or nearly all of them.
6) A decision has not yet been made about MI or FL's delegates, but it is highly likely they will not be ignored, unless all trends favor Obama by that point.

[GihrenZabi]

100. ?

Wasn't your argument predicated on SD's?

I asked someone to remove them from the equation and show how she can still "win."

[pdx_prog]

101. The nomination is going to be decided by the DNC at this point

The DNC pretty much makes up the remaining SD's. Who disqualified Fl and Mi?...The DNC....they made the rules. They are going to vote for whoever racks up the most delegates which in this case will be Obama.

The nomination depends on the number of delegates.....To swing their support to someone who is NOT the delegate leader would be like handing the Presidency over to McSame.

[Tellurian]

103. Hillary will WIN with the popular vote..

that is how it will get settled..and she will be the Dem Nominee.

People are getting sick and tired of the Soap Opera, "The Obamas, Days of Our Lives"...

The more we get to know what Obama is all about, the less we like him!

[wowimthere]

105. You're judging him based on his pastor and the word bitter and not the war vote?

You dislike Obama on peripheral issues but you love clinton's war vote, the kyle/libermann amendment, that bad bankruptcy bill, tuzla, her constant bashing of a democrat in favor of a republican? You love that about her? Wow! Most who support her support her without weighing her votes or the facts or that she sounds like Bush.

[Tellurian]

117. I'm judging you on your accountability of stating accurate facts..

But the main reason Hillary is my candidate is SHE CAN and will WIN!

So, you can huff and puff how Obama wasn't around for the War Vote, and you can lie about her Bankruptcy vote because she wasn't there when the final vote was taken; You can exaggerate the importance of a misstatement about Tuzla, you can lie about her bashing Democrats and favoring Republicans..But at the end of the day..

Obama won't win the Nomination, because his judgment is flawed on simple personal issues never mind the responsibilities of our country. When a presidential wannabe doesn't know enough to stand up for our country from a Church Pew and say, "I've had enough of listening to Pastor Wright tearing down our country and walk out the door"! He is not someone I want as my president representing me!

[haymakeragain]

120. Facts like Hillary is ahead in the popular vote?

that kind of fact. pshaw.

[Tellurian]

127. Hillary is already ahead of Obama in the Popular vote

"Why Hillary is Ahead in the Popular Vote"

Elections 2008

Sat Apr 26, 2008

Michael Barone at Real Clear Politics examines the popular vote totals, including caucus states, and says Hillary Clinton is ahead.

Her 214,000-vote margin in the Keystone State means that she has won the votes, in primaries and caucuses, of 15,112,000 Americans, compared to 14,993,000 for Obama.

If you add in the votes, as estimated by the folks at realclearpolitics.com, in the Iowa, Nevada, Washington and Maine caucuses, where state Democratic parties did not count the number of caucus-attenders, Clinton still has a lead of 12,000 votes.

Barone says even with a loss in North Carolina, Hillary may keep the lead if she does well, as expected in W.Va and Kentucky and Puerto Rico.

So it's likely that Clinton will be able to argue that undecided super-delegates should heed the will of the people.

Barone presents the Obama campaign's likely response, which he says, likely will prevail with superdelegates:

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/26/23307/7286

[Vinca]

132. Does that include Michigan and Florida? I've seen the same

sort of analysis done by Chuck Todd (I think) and it comes up the exact opposite result.

[haymakeragain]

134. You're full of crap.

Florida and Michigan aren't included and you know it. Even if you include Florida, she's still behind by about half a million. Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot in MI and you think that should count? You're positively delusional.

It's obvious that you understand that only through deceit and malfeasance can you even make an argument that Hillary is ahead or should be the nominee. The resemblance to Bush Repukes is staggering. Sad.

[Tellurian]

153. Am I ? Florida and Michigan are not included in the vote totals giving her a 12,000 vote lead..

take remedial reading classes. Because besides being an insulting, primitive, ignorant poster, you're not worth wasting the bandwidth to communicate facts to. The influx of trolls coming here in March as nothing more than disruptors to thread communication is an abomination, as are you sir!

[haymakeragain]

167. It is you, you pontificating,

cherry-picker who should stow the bullshit.

Reading your links is useless. Here's one for you:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

It says exactly what I have been saying, that without MI and FL Hillarious is trailing. ONLY with MI and FL is she ahead.

I can read, but I can also see. See through the bullshit.

[Tellurian]

185. No you are as hopeless and hapless as your candidate..

[dbmk]

152. One would think

..that the ability to predict the progress and effects of a war goes quite far up on the ladder of "the responsibilities of our country.".

Resisting calling for wrong taxcuts could also be seen as being rather important.

Angry words from a pastor over the history of the US sticking its nose where it didn't belong and suppressing minorities and using them for experiments, would seem to be a bit too trivial to put on such a list at all.

[haymakeragain]

119. Actually the reality you're hoping for is

the more Hillarious can snowjob the public with this Obama sliming, the more the super Ds will vote for her. That's your hoped for "reality", too bad it ain't reality itself.

She will not be the nominee, and she is way behind in the popular vote too, fyi.

[Tellurian]

128. The usual disinformation campaign by Obama supporters allergic to the Truth

You can get yourself up to speed here, so you won't look so foolish: :hi:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5767945&mesg_id=5769934

[haymakeragain]

135. Hey rovarian, just repeating it over and over don't make it so.

Obviously you're willing to cheat to win it. You should consider skipping all the clandestine niceties and just declare as a Repube. You act just like they do, it's fucking sad.

Hillary is behind in the popular vote and behind in pledged delegates and will remain there. Deal with it.

[Tellurian]

149. I provided a link to the math..your refusal to accept she is ahead by 12,000 votes

coming out of Pennsylvania is your problem not mine..

[haymakeragain]

170. Here's the facts:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

You need to deal with them. Notice the only time Hillobeans gets ahead is with Florida and Michigan counting.

Now throw in the Rushian Operation Chaos dickwads and you see that your claim is mute.

[Phillycat]

107. Excellent, unbiased post.

So of course the partisan loonies will attack you for it.

[wowimthere]

106. That's why there should be separation of church and State... The Wright issue is a stupid GOP issue

That isn't a Dem issue and Dems are letting Republicans tell them how they should vote. And many Dems let them.

Not this time.

[TheDudeAbides]

115. The Wright issue is a Judgment issue

Judgement is (was) Obama's claim to fame.
But, he has shown horrific judgment in the people he's chosen as his mentors, friends, business partners, etc.
This is far beyond the Wright issue.

Regarding the Wright issue and religion...it actually is important too.
Black Liberation Theology is a separatist religion; the polar opposite of what you'd expect from a unifying leader.
And yes, I have read Cone.

"just words"

[Lucky 13]

122. You're asking them to do MATH?

You might as well ask them to speak martian. It's a language they don't comprehend.

[Vinca]

125. There is no way she can overcome Obama's numbers and there

is no way the superdelegates are going to kiss Obama's list of a million and a half willing donors away. Based on the list so far, it's worth hundreds of millions of campaign dollars.

[Tellurian]

130. Do notice Kerry 2008 has suddenly disappeared..

now that his question of "How Hillary Can Win" has been answered!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5767945&mesg_id=5769934

[haymakeragain]

137. She can only win through malfeasance. but she's trying anyway.

That ought to tell you something.

[Tellurian]

145. Since when is the Will of the People considered malfeasance?

sounds like more sour grapes coming from a disappointed Obama supporter who thought Obama has a LOCK on the nomination!

[haymakeragain]

169. Since trying to count MI when one of the players wasn't on the ballot,

and calling that the "will of the people". Since trying to change the rules and counting unfair elections and relying on super delegates to overturn the ENTIRE PROCESS, full well knowing in advance the rules, is MALFEASANCE.

And nice projection, it is you Hillarians who are hacked off because your entitlement to the nomination disappeared when more people wanted someone else.

[Tellurian]

188. No projection at all...you're a sore loser is all..

and resent the fact Hillary can WIN in spite of your propaganda Obama has a lock on the Nomination. He doesn't!

[rodeodance]

133. Hey Pal---What is the magic #???

[haymakeragain]

138. What is the magic number? I don't know, can you tell me?

thanks.

[dbmk]

147. I tried to do this yesterday too

And I got 0 (zero) responses living up to the simple criteria of showing me that the argument was based on an understanding of what the pure realities are.

I can take many arguments. But I need to see that the baseline is understood.

[Tellurian]

151. Hillary is ahead in the Popular vote by 12,000 votes...that is how she can win..

For a complete understanding...go here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5767945&mesg_id=5769934

[dbmk]

154. yeah

If you count elections that were stated as not counting and in one of them Obama wasn't even on the ballot. And had no campaigning by the candidates.

But of course you would only expect to do that if you were a relative of the late Saddam Hussein or Mugabe in Zimbabwe.

Do you have any idea how much the rest of the civilized world will laugh and shake their head at something like that? And see it as a continuation of the corruption that is your current administration?

How can anyone have so little and so hypocritical a grasp of fairness when it comes to democracy and rules?

[Tellurian]

158. MI and Fl aren't included in the popular vote totals giving Hillary a 12,000 vote lead over Obama..

feigning ignorance is about as useful as the dog ate my homework.

read the entire link. A third grader could understand the thrust of the information.

[dbmk]

165. Haha - See I was looking at the numbers

..that the article was based on.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Now I will walk you through it - they have even colorcoded it for you - are you ready?
Here we go:
The yellow numbers at the top are the numbers excluding MI/FL - With caucus estimates and without. Both spell "smackdown".
The slightly purple/gray numbers are the ones with FL included but no MI - With caucus estimates and without. Both spell trouble for Hillary.
The purple numbers are the ones with FL and MI included - With caucus estimates and without. Both spell "Mockery of rules and democracy".

So I guess my question is; Whats the name of your second grade teacher? Think she needs to hold you back this year as well.

How can you not know that he is about ½million+ ahead without those two?

[haymakeragain]

173. A big river in Africa is in the way.

The Nile.

[dbmk]

175. Yeah, I would be much surprised to see Tellurian in this thread again

[dbmk]

178. I am just left wondering..

How do these pieces of misinformation get spread around? And how many are running around being under this impression?

Something like this was the entire point of this thread, I guess. To show that there is close to NO grasp of the numbers behind all the "Hillary will win" posturing.

[Tellurian]

They specified in the link...even IF she looses NC..

I immediately compensated for the fact that as of today, May 1st she is close to winning NC as the new polls are beginning to reflect and Indiana by a landslide. Those numbers were not included in the final reconciliation done on April 26th. The worst case scenario for Hillary at this point in time for Hillary is 12,000 may be a too conservative number she is ahead in the popular vote. And if they use the Primary votes instead of the Caucus votes on (2-9) in Washington on Feb 19th..Obama's popular vote count is yet reduced another 50,000 votes

[dbmk]

187. It is STILL with FL/MI counted in

Did I not spell it out clearly enough? I mean I might have made some mistakes, me not being a third grader and what not.

I even provided a link with color coded numbers and everything. Even I could understand it.

It is increasingly clear to me that you have no grasp of this subject. Which is very ok. But here is some free advice; Don't belittle the ones that do.

[Tellurian]

190. Yes, but they allowed for a loss in North Carolina...

that is the compensating factor you refuse to admit as a distinct possibility.

[dbmk]

196. Ok, lets take this one step at a time

You say that Hillary is ahead by 12k in the populalr vote without FL and MI. Not true. I have shown you that it is not.

You then start mixing NC in. What they do in the article is, that they say that she might loose there and keep up this already mentioned phony lead of 12k anyway due to other coming contests.

"Barone says even with a loss in North Carolina, Hillary may keep the lead if she does well, as expected in W.Va and Kentucky and Puerto Rico."

Which is an entirely different matter. And is STILL based on counting FL/MI. And has NOTHING to do with the 12k lead they claim she has today.

Have you read both articles? The one you link to and the one that article is based on? And the numbers that the first article as based on that I gave you the link to?

[kenny blankenship]

155. Well, she has 53-56% unfavorable ratings already, & 59% of the country regard her as a Liar

So she's got that going for her... What's the big problem?

[Tellurian]

160. The live MSM has Obama Poll numbers sinking like a rock..

I hope he bows out soon..his failure is all his own.

[kenny blankenship]

163. You -and a bunch of racists- are going to be SO disappointed.

[Tellurian]

164. Ah, yes, we've been waiting for the race card to be played..

whenever Obama starts losing the Race Card players show up!

Have fun talking to your ignorant self.

[haymakeragain]

176. The phrase "race card" is cover speak

for racists. Kind of like "politically correct". Just dog whistles.

[VotesForWomen]

236. calling anybody that doesn't support obama a racist probably isn't a good campaign strategy.

[Two Americas]

161. make me a "believer"

Why is it assumed that this is all about "believers" on one "side" or the other?

I don't think there is much of any chance of a Clinton nomination. So what? There was never much of a chance of Kucinich getting the nomination, or years ago Reverend Jackson. They run because they have some support, and the primaries are where people have an opportunity to express that. That is the most important reason to hold primaries, not to run an American Idol popularity contest.

Close to half of the people are still supporting Clinton. Were that not true, we would not be in this situation. But is is and we are.

If the numbers were reversed, I would be saying "Hell yes Obama should stay in the race. He has close to half of the Democrats supporting him, and they need to be heard and the process needs to play out."

I can't see any downside to Clinton staying in the race. Believing in something, and then trying to bully other people to make those beliefs come true, does not make them true.

Clinton is still getting support from close to half the Democrats. I don't know with certainty what that means, nor why that is. But it is true. Many do not like that, and that is what the uproar is all about.

[Tellurian]

166. Easy..

and alot easier if people would read the thread before posting..

Hillary is ahead by 12,000 Popular votes as of today, not including FL or MI..

If your interested in how she will WIN..read the link within the link in it's entirety.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5767945&mesg_id=5769934

[dbmk]

168. Well it is easy if you have no clue what numbers you are dealing with

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5767945&mesg_id=5771212

And even easier if you insult the ones informing you of your lack of information - instead of doing fact checks.

[haymakeragain]

177. You know what?

the Bush campaign and the Repubes in general have long been past "willfully ignorant" and have graduated to "willfully wrong" The truth doesn't even enter into it. It's all about repeating it and repeating it in hopes of giving people cover for their idiot vote. As long as they can have it in their pocket that "but I read that ....", then they can cling to their belief, even if it is wrong. The Rovians don't give a flying fuck about being right or the truth. The only care about getting power and using it to their advantage.

Same case here it seems. Makes my skin crawl.

[Tellurian]

183. Well, before you make a fool of yourself as well.. I answered your post up thread..

[dbmk]

189. But you did not read it apparently

[Tellurian]

195. I did..

It's simple. I used an instant algorithm for trading MI and FL for the popular vote which she is now expected to WIN in NC. Winning Indiana is all gravy for her on top of the excess vote total she wins above and beyond the MI and FL totals in NC.

[dbmk]

197. You claimed she was 12k ahead to day without MI/FL

That was proven false.

Your response is nonsense number gymnastics. Without numbers.

[Tellurian]

198. Come back to me after next Tuesday...deal?

You'll see that my numbers are conservative.

[dbmk]

200. Aarg

What the hell does "she is 12k ahead as of today" has to do with tuesday?

And your numbers? I have seen no numbers from you, besides the "12k as of today".

[Tellurian]

202. The NC and Indy Primarys...are May 6th...next Tuesday

Ok...Wednesday, if you can wait that long...and I'll do the numbers for you..

[dbmk]

206. You still haven't explained how that is in any way tied to your claim

..that Hillarys is up 12k as of today in the popular vote. Excluding FL/MI. Which is wrong obviously.

But I guess you found out and started on magnificent piece of mathamajumbo to explain that away.

"But she will be" is your answer - getting caught peddling misinformation about the present situation. Which has absolutely _nothing_ to do with your intitial statement or the article you linked to.

[dbmk]

208. Oh, btw

I'd rather do the numbers myself, thank you very much. Wouldn't want you to get hurt.

[Tellurian]

212. Oh, my...I'm bookmarking this thread btw..

It would be good if you do the same... it's the same page thing, if you know what I mean..

when you're not busy...apparently you skipped over the parent link and why you are responding so vaguely to my posts.

This is the parent thread.. begin with the headline..and read all.. than substitute MI and FL for the forthcoming good results in NC using NC as a wash with FL and MI and Indy as lush gravy.

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/26/23307/7286

[Two Americas]

215. ROFL!

13 posts on a subthread off of my post, and apparently no one actually read my post.

Carry on with the feud.

[dbmk]

218. I did read it. And I don't agree that Clinton does no harm staying in.

But Tellurians response to it was 100% false so that had to be corrected.

It is increasingly clear that the people that think Hillary can win this have NO clue as what that will take in terms of political reality. She just will. It is nothing more than a wish. I have seen nothing to suggest that any amount of intellectual capital is invested in reflecting on how that will come about. Or seen anything to indicate that the numerical reality is understood.

But I would like to be shown otherwise. Two threads like this hasn't brought it out though.

[Two Americas]

219. I know, I know

I don't think it matters whether she stays in or not. I am not convinced that it hurts anything.

Isn't it a sign of weakness that so many supporters of one candidate are so desperate to drive the other candidate out of the race? What are we going to do? Yell at McCain to drop out if he falls behind in the polls at some point?

[dbmk]

225. It is a sign that many believe her to do McCains work. For no good reason.

Money is being wasted. McCain gaffes are being completely overlooked. Healing time for the party is being burned away.

There is a ton of good reasons to stop a contest that is already won by one of the contenders - when they are supposedly on the same side afterwards. Especially since the loser has seemingly forgotten that and is doing everything she can to make sure the winner doesn't leave the contest in one piece.

That would be why many are calling out for her to stop. Because Obama is NOT going to hit back at Hillary with anything and everything, out of decency.

[Two Americas]

226. symptoms, distractions, confusion

The is a big problem with money in politics. The pervasive notion among activists that we need to play the game cleverly rather than challenging the game is a problem that is important that worrying about what Clinton is spending, and assuming that this impacts the general, seems petty by comparison.

I do not think that a case can be made that Clinton is destroying the party nor Obama. Certainly that gets repeated here ad nauseum. When you trace most of the uproars back, wading through all of the outrage and slander and smears, you discover that the original offense was minor, typical of politics, spun to be something it was not, or magnified and perverted into an anti-CLinton rant. If these things Clinton is saying are so destructive to Obama, then why is it Obama supporters repeating them again and again?

I have to wonder just how weak the party is, and just how weak the Obama movement is when I hear these charges against Clinton. I think much of it is projection. "Kitchen sink? Is that not what Obama supporters are doing? "Scorched earth?" Is that not what Obama supporters are doing? These little slogans get repeated endlessly until they are accepted as fact.

"Doing everything she can to make sure the winner doesn't leave the contest in one piece" is projection in my opinion, as well. Many Obama supporters gleefully and proudly say "fuck 'em" to people who disagree with them or do not vote for Obama, call Clinton and her supporters Republicans and everything else under the sun, say they will not support the ticket if Clinton is on it, and call for the purging of Clinton and her supporters.

In my view, as a person who is not enthusiastic about either candidate and was neutral before the food fight erupted, Clinton and Clinton supporters have been far more gracious and civil, and have burned far fewer bridges. Now that the fight is in full force, I see it as significant - inevitable and based on substantial differences between different factions in the party.

[dbmk]

216. But what has that got to do with the article you link to?

And your claim that she is ahead with 12k as of today - not counting MI/FL?

I've read it all. I fail to see what that has to do with me pointing out that you were spreading misinformation.

I have not been vague at all. You are the one the keeps on moving the focus. My guess is you do it because you got caught defending numbers with bogus claims.

Did you or did you not claim she was ahead by 12k as of today - not counting MI/FL? Easy question.

But if I understand you right, you are changing the argument to that Hillary will get there Tuesday anyways. Not counting MI/FL.
500k+ difference in popular vote... good luck.

[dbmk]

217. But hey, if you think I am as dense as it appears you deem me to be

..would you then care to walk me through your claims, arguments and how that article plays into it?

[Two Americas]

214. read my post

It would be a lot easier if you read my post before responding.

I wasn't seriously asking for anyone to make me a believer. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

Finally, a Clinton supporter jumped on me for a change! Been waiting for that for a long time. Obama supporters jump on me every 5 minutes for daring to be neutral about the two candidates.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

205. Use the new reverse math.

[ronnykmarshall]

209. Isn't it funny

how just a few months ago you were addressing Obama supporters with the same forcefully "I DEMAND TO KNOW" back when you were a "Hillary supporter"?

And make sure you point out to all your pals in the new club house how I'm calling you out and throwing you under the bus.

[PresidentObama]

222. You guys ignore me everytime I say this---I still prefer Hillary.

The math isn't on her side. The nomination is all but Obama's.

I made the decision to support the nominee.

Instead of watching this go on and on only to have the same result.

The race has only gotten more dirty and slimy.

Hillary has every right to stay in, but I disagree with her and her supporters that she still has a chance.

If she did, you'd see me flip-flop back to your guys side in a jiffy.

[cornermouse]

211. Whatever happened to voting for the person who most closely

represents your views? Is that nothing more than a quaint notion now?

[PresidentObama]

223. I already did. I voted for Hillary. That was on Super Tuesday, when she had a chance.

[quakerboy]

234. Not a Hillary supporter

But I'm pretty sure the plan is 3 parts:

1) trick Obama into the the basement at the convention, then lock him in.
2) convince the super delegates that he couldn't take the pressure and just didn't show up.
3) Thats it. I am guessing she will finish out with about 1553 pledged pledged delegates. Add 4 generously paid Obama pledged defectors to start the trend, and you have 1557. Then you add 793(794-1, since Obama will be locked in the basement, he won't get to vote) super delegates, and you get a convincing 2350 delegate victory.

That sounds about like par for the course, given the campaign so far.