Brand New Indiana Poll - Hillary: 48, Obama: 38

[NJSecularist]

http://www.theindychannel.com/politics/16106143/detail.html

INDIANAPOLIS -- The results of a statewide survey indicate a dramatic shift of support from Sen. Barack Obama in favor of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Indiana Democratic presidential primary.

The survey, conducted by Indianapolis-based TeleResearch Corp. and released exclusively to RTV6, showed Clinton with a 10-point lead over Obama -- 48 percent to 38 percent -- with 14 percent of respondents undecided. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.

The telephone poll of 943 randomly selected likely Democratic primary voters was conducted from April 25 through April 29.

What is particularly striking in the results is the declining support for Obama in favor of Clinton over successive days in which respondents were questioned.

On the first day of the survey, Clinton held a 2 percent lead -- 45 percent to 43 percent, despite a 20-point lead for Obama among male respondents. Each day, more respondents supported Clinton.

By the last day of polling, Clinton took 4 percent lead among men -- 45 percent to 41 percent -- representing a staggering 24-point swing.

Over the four days in which the survey was conducted, the controversy involving the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama's former pastor, swelled.

"In that window, he dominated all the political news in the presidential race," said Jeff Lewis, TeleResearch CEO. "In that period of time, Obama's lead among men went from a 20 point lead on Friday … to a four point lead for Sen. Clinton."

Among females, Clinton held a commanding lead of between 15 and 20 points.

TeleResearch accurately predicted the results of the last two Indiana gubernatorial elections within a 1 percent margin.

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: If Obama cannot come within 10 points in Indiana, it really says a lot about his candidacy and his lack of appeal to working class whites.

[Avalon6]

1. A 24 point swing among men in 5 days of polling means this poll isn't accurate

There is nothing in the news cycle to suggest that big of a shift.

[jsamuel]

3. or the previous one wasn't... or neither of them are

or not

[Texas Hill Country]

4. wright - and its all about perception at this point.

[ProSense]

6. The spin is in. n/t

[NJSecularist]

9. Except... you know... Reverend Wright?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

The crosstabs look good too.

[RiverStone]

38. Yea, the media whores pounded it in 24/7

You might be celebrating it, but thankfully the 5-6 SuperD's that endorsed Obama today did not fall for that bullshit.

[Texas Hill Country]

50. and they will continue to do so because it is ratings gold

[cliffordu]

35. Yeah, you pretty much have to shoot someone in the face to get that kind

of loss that rapidly, and as far as I know.....

[Texas Hill Country]

2. friggin ouch... that has to sting!

[bluestateguy]

5. So if she wins, will Indiana "matter"?

Her argument is that all of these small red state caucus/primary wins by Obama don't "matter" because Democrats won't win those states in November. Indiana last voted Democratic for president in 1964. So if she wins thiat primary is she planning on grabbing it in the fall?

[rodeodance]

72. ha ha is that all you got. get a life --and new material

[Joe the Revelator]

7. 14% undecided and also is IN an open primary?

Because if so, these number are even more useless.

[The Ghost]

8. "his lack of appeal to working class whites."

so it IS about race then?

[NJSecularist]

10. No, it is about results.

When is the last time Obama won a state with a majority of working-class whites?

Who is the last president who won an election without the white working class vote?

[The Ghost]

14. Neither Hillary nor Obama will win IN

nor will they lose PA or CA, etc etc.

Primary elections and Genral elections are COMPLETELY different animals.

[Leopolds Ghost]

17. "My campaign is not about racism, it's about RESULTS. Don't expect any results from a black man..."

"Why, just LOOK at his pastor! Much worse than McCain's pastor, or
my pastor... Unlike Hagee or (unnamed Fellowship pastor) it's not just
WHAT he said but the WAY he said it... in that whiny, uppity, black
tone of voice... think of all the black leaders pushing President
Obama to the left, where you KNOW sensible working class whites
don't want to go! Real Americans hate elites because they are rich
and don't deserve to be, whereas white rural voters have been held
back and left to squabble with undeserving minorities!
It's right wing populism!
and I, Hillary, am its representative, returning the party to its
Jacksonian roots!"

[MADem]

32. See, you just made an error of fact. Hagee is NOT McCain's pastor.

He is an assclown reverend who ENDORSED McCain. And McCain disavowed everything the guy said, and still kept the endorsement. He said he often does NOT AGREE with those who endorse him.

McCain's pastor is someone who knows how to stay OUT of the news. Apparently. Because we've never seen him...or her.

So, all of that "whiny, uppity" nonsense is based on a false premise, see?

Hagee is NOT the guy that McCain sat in the pew listening to for twenty years, he's not the guy who got thirty grand or more in donations out of McCain's wallet.

He is NOT McCain's pastor.

[The Ghost]

44. Right ...

... and you also didnt sit in the pew for 20 years either, and all you know of Wright's work in the church is by a few minutes you saw on YouTube.

So tell me, do you honestly think it was 20 years of America bashing, etc etc, and if so, Obama would really sit and listen to that for 20 years?

If so, fine, thats your opinion.

[MADem]

48. False argument. This isn't about ME. This is about a comparison of Wright and Hagee, and

their relationships to the two candidates.

Stop trying to obfuscate the issue. It doesn't work.

We aren't talking about "degrees" here, and how much "good" Wright may or may not have done.

Fact: Hagee is NOT McCain's PASTOR. He never was, either.

Fact: Wright WAS Obama's PASTOR.

And that's not opinion. And it isn't about ME, either. So cut that crap out.

[BeyondGeography]

19. Al Gore got 36% of the white male vote in 2000; Kerry only did slightly better

Working class white males are not our friends come GE time. Hillary will lose them to McCain by a wide margin, as will Obama. In the meantime, they get to pretend they like Hillary by claiming to be upset by the scary black preacher man. This hurts Obama in the primary right now buyt says little about what will happen in the GE.

[redqueen]

25. Exactly... and this is pointed out routinely... but the M$M says jump...

and some people still jump.

Sad.

[The Ghost]

27. Bingo ...

and I actually think Hillary would get less than what Gore got, unless voters REALLY vote the issues this time, which is a 50/50 chance.

[Maine-ah]

53. Maine?

[PBS Poll-435]

11. Hot Damn!

:woohoo:

[bluestateguy]

I'd like to know her paln for winning 90% of the black vote WITH a high turnout

Much is made of him not appealing to working class whites. Fine. But the door swings both ways. Why is she not appealing to blacks? Why is it that she can't seem to win in big cities, save for her New York City?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. She Won Los Angeles

I believe metropolitan Los Angeles has 14,000,000 people!!!

It's bigger than all but four states...

[bluestateguy]

57. OK, that's 2

She has lost in DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Boston, St. Louis, Kansas City, San Francisco, Dallas, Austin, Houston, New Orleans, Atlanta, Denver, Nashville, Memphis, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinatti, Jacksonville, Seattle and Oakland.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

60. What's More Likely?

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton shows well in urban centers against Republican John McCain

Democratic nominee Barack Obama shows well against Republican John McCain among working class whites in vital swing states...

[Phillycat]

66. Do you honestly think DC, Baltimore, Philly, etc etc etc WON'T go Dem in the general?

If course they will. They always do. On the other hand, are Hillary's white working class voters going to vote for Obama or McCain?

On edit: And saying NYC and LA are "just two" cities is like saying our economy is going through a "little hiccup".

[bluestateguy]

69. Sure they will

But there is a big difference between winning 93% of the vote in Detroit with a high turnout, which you need to win Michigan, as opposed to 80% and a light turnout. Given her alienation of black voters right now, that appears to be the road that Hillary is heading down.

I'm not going to deny Obama's problems with certain groups of voters. I never did. But Hillary has her own problems with other pieces of the Democratic Party coalition too.

[Phillycat]

70. Yes, and it's getting worse on both sides.

This contention and negativity is bad for the party. I want to let the Democratic process play out and ensure all voters have their voices heard, but man I would love to see a unity ticket...if only so all of us lunatics on DU have our heads explode. :D

[jefferson_dem]

12. RAS has Hillary 46, Obama 41.

Indiana Democratic Primary
Indiana: Clinton 46% Obama 41%
Thursday, May 01, 2008

Senator Hillary Clinton leads Senator Barack Obama by five percentage points in the Indiana Democratic Presidential Primary. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state finds Clinton attracting 46% of the vote while Obama earns 41%. With just a week to go before Election Day, 13% remain undecided.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Clinton voters say they are “certain” they will vote for her while 77% of Obama supporters say the same about their decision. Among supporters of each candidate, just 4% say there’s a good chance they will change their mind.

Clinton leads by nineteen percentage points among White voters. Obama leads 90% to 4% among African-Americans.

Obama leads among voters under 40 while Clinton has the edge among older voters. The former First Lady is especially strong among those over 65--she leads by a two-to-one margin among senior citizens.

The survey was conducted Tuesday night. That was after Obama’s denunciation of his former Pastor but before Hoosiers had a chance to see it in the morning newspapers.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 73% of Likely Indiana Primary Voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 70%. Those figures include 46% with a Very Favorable opinion of Clinton and 39% who think that highly of Obama.

Fifty percent (50%) of Clinton voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/indiana/indiana_democratic_primary

[redqueen]

13. Ugh.

Let's hope this poll is an outlier.

[Joe the Revelator]

16. 14% undecided in a poll taken during a really bad week for Obama...plus they didn't poll

independents....I wouldn't worry about it unless those undecideds firmed up.

[redqueen]

18. And still NOTHING in the news about the robo calls.

Not ONE question to her campaign about it, either, I bet.

x(

[Iceburg]

23. The indies are raving about Hillary after her debut on O'Reilly

Its a shame Obama does not have the confidence to go on his show.

[BigD_95]

36. Screw you!

I normally dont speak like this but to act like Obama sould go anywhere near that BS show is assline! That show has done nothing but bashed Obama. I would think any Dem would stay clear of that asshole!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. He Already Went On Fox With Chris Wallace

Next

[democrattotheend]

22. It's not

And given the trend, unless things turn around, he's probably going to lose by more than 10. This is really sickening, to watch everything come apart because the media can't get over their obsession with Reverend Wright. If Obama had taken a bribe or had an extramarital affair I could understand all the questions about his character, but to see them relentlessly bash him over someone else's words is outrageous. This is why good people don't usually get very far in politics. Obama doesn't have that much baggage so they have to focus on his associations in order to give the appearance of fairness.

[redqueen]

24. I thought voters had had enough of pandering and being lied to...

so did millions and millions of new voters, who were ready to do away with the cynicism and get involved to make things better.

Guess we may end up stuck with the status quo after all.

[democrattotheend]

28. Yeah, I think we had too much faith in voters. So did Obama.

No matter how much people want change and dislike the state of our politics, they fall victim to the media frenzies and scare tactics every time. My mom was right with what she said after Obama's Philadelphia speech: if we can't see through this kind of crap, we don't deserve to have a president with as much character and decency as Obama.

[redqueen]

31. I don't know... I'm not convinced that a few polls now

mean that people are all of a sudden willing to slurp up the lies and innuendo again.

I still have hope. :)

[democrattotheend]

33. I'm trying not to lose hope, but it's hard

It's really hard not to get demoralized. I went through this four years ago with Dean and it was painful. It was hard to stay motivated to keep volunteering when it felt like things were collapsing. I am trying not to get so demoralized that I can't help Obama but it's tough.

[redqueen]

46. Perhaps this might cheer you up... this spin can be overwhelming.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5768131

:hi:

[hell-bent]

54. Hope? Hope for what?

Listen, if Billary gets the nod for the nomination you Obamatrons can always gather and sip some of that Jonestown Kool-Aid, or just vote for Ralphie or Ron. :evilgrin:

[redqueen]

56. Hope that more voters are concerned with ISSUES than BS / smears.

As for your... whatever that is... whatever.

[hell-bent]

59. You are not the "queen of diamonds" are you? :>)

[redqueen]

62. NEVER.

Greed sickens me.

[BigD_95]

40. lets be real here

Its such a story because of white racist America. Nobody gives a damn about all those white religious wackos saying crap. But damn if a black man does. What a freaking joke this country is.

[democrattotheend]

42. You're right.

And it's pretty damn sickening. I thought we'd turned a corner and reached a point where we were ready to move on but apparently we're just as racist and stupid as we've always been. And I am sorry if that sounds elitist but right now I am really disheartened.

[democrattotheend]

15. Yeah, no surprise

It seems like all the polls are showing Obama's support dropping. I wouldn't expect anything else, the way the media is pumping the Wright story nonstop for the second time (as if it did not get enough attention the first time!). I just hope he can do something to turn things around...it is really breaking my heart watching this happening. If Obama were found guilty of an affair or some sort of corrupt dealings this would be understandable, but to see him get attacked relentlessly for days over the actions of someone he has no control over is really disheartening.

[ksoze]

20. Attacked for actions he DID have control over

The campaign knew wright was poison way earlier and probably stayed with him as not to highlight him. Obama thought the Philly speech would erase the spotlight and it did until wright turned the spotlight back on himself. Wright was controllable - either when he first showed signs fo the very things Obama now says he hates or when they uninvited him to OB's launch when someone knew they had a problem brewing.

[democrattotheend]

26. But why should he have to answer for Wright in the first place?

Nothing Obama has ever said or done suggests that he shares Wright's views, so why should he be held accountable for them? I don't argue that the press has been tough on Clinton, arguably tougher than they were on Obama in the beginning, but Obama is the only candidate who has been attacked mercilessly for someone else's words and actions.

[ksoze]

34. Because Wright is defining someone who was a blank canvas

no shocker. Hillary was defined by the press/Repugs years ago - all the baggage has been rummaged through for decades. Obama is basically unknown and inspiring speeches aside, he was due to be judged by learning about whom he said he was "guided" by. It may unfair, but Obama named books after Wrights's speeches and kept him close to him for a very long time. If Wright just snapped and went berserk a week ago, then OB did get screwed.

[democrattotheend]

41. He's written two books on his own (without ghostwriters). There's plenty there to learn about him.

Especially since he wrote one of the books before he even ran for state senate. It was unlikely he was planning his presidential campaign back then. You can read his books (as I am sure the opposition has done) and learn plenty about his philosophy on life.

He also has 8 years of votes in the Illinois senate to comb through, as well as almost 4 years in the US Senate. How much more do you need to make a decision about him? Shouldn't he be judged on his own words and merits?

If they are going to play the guilt by association game, then they should put it all out there about all of the candidates. Even if it's old it's still relevant now that we are judging Clinton and McCain as presidential candidates. I was 8 years old when Bill Clinton got elected. I have heard of travelgate but I don't exactly know what it is (and have not bothered to search, because I don't care). I am too young to remember the Keating 5. And even people who are older may not remember them. If we are going to use past associations as a judge of character we should do it for all the candidates. But personally, I'd rather judge all the candidates on their own words and accomplishments and character.

[ksoze]

45. Autobiographies start the sketch

It certainly can help sketch out someone, but when those same outlines are contradicted by someone who he has said is important to him and his faith, it creates a question. Also, I am not sure his voting record in 8 years in the Illinois senate was enlightening and his 'almost" 4 years in the senate has been "almost" all spent campaigning. I respect your support of obama (whom I will support if he is dem nominee), but am trying to help you make sense why others may view him differently and how Wright hurts him more since he has a mostly self-painted picture.

[1776Forever]

21. Indiana Democratic Primary RCP Average 04/20 - 04/29 -- Clinton +2.6

Indiana Democratic Primary Polling Data

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html

Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread
RCP Average 04/20 - 04/29 -- 46.3 43.7 Clinton +2.6

Rasmussen 04/29 - 04/29 400 LV 46 41 Clinton +5.0
PPP (D) 04/27 - 04/28 1347 LV 50 42 Clinton +8.0
SurveyUSA 04/25 - 04/27 628 LV 52 43 Clinton +9.0
Howey-Gauge 04/23 - 04/24 600 LV 45 47 Obama +2.0
Research 2000 04/23 - 04/24 400 LV 47 48 Obama +1.0
Indy Star/Selzer 04/20 - 04/23 535 LV 38 Obama +3.0

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Look At The Trend

Her lead is growing....

All the close polls were prior to Obama throwing Reverend Wright off the bus and then running over him...

Strategically, it might have been better off to have stuck to his original position...

It's academic now...

[AllentownJake]

29. 60%

Is the threshold.

Get 60% of the vote of your dead in the water.

[Life Long Dem]

30. There are connections with Senator Bayh and TeleResearch's president. n/t

[MarjorieG]

39. Media needs to analyze what they created. All these weeks had to affect.

[SeaLyons]

43. Swwwweeeeet!!

:woohoo: :woohoo: :applause: :applause:

[BootinUp]

47. BLAM! take that superdelegate traitors!

[Beacool]

49. Fantastic!!!!!!!!

Hillary will win IN and lose NC by a narrow margin.

Either way, RISE Hillary RISE!!!!!!!

[haymakeragain]

55. She needs 22 more points, in Indy and everywhere esle

to pull even. Not gonna get there. sorry. Will you vote for Obama if he's the nominee?

[hell-bent]

58. No she doesn't!

If she wins Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, and is close in North Carolina she will be the nominee. The SDs will see that she is the best choice to beat McCain. These are not stupid people; they are politicians and know how the game is played. Her popular vote will be more than Obama's when they will include the 800K+ Hillary voters in Florida. How can they not choose the one who received the most votes? If she doesn't have the most popular votes then he should be the nominee. Hillary needs to overcome that 317K popular vote plurality that Obama has presently. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[rocktivity]

61. She has to win ALL TEN of remaining contests with AT LEAST 68% of the vote

if she wants the superdelegates to ignore Obama's pledged delegate numbers...and his larger campaign coffers...and his 2-to-1 margin of primary/caucus wins...and the fact that gap in the number of superdelegates has shrunk significantly. As for MI/FLA, the delegates will most likely be split down the middle, if at all. The DNC isn't going to slit its own throat by rewarding the Dems who breaking the rules when they moved their primary dates.

:headbang:
rocknation

[haymakeragain]

63. Yes, she does.

She isn't going to win Oregon, or probably many of the others, that you failed to mention. If I remember correctly, weren't Obamas wins in red states meaningless because we aren't going to win them in the fall? Well, we sure aren't going to win IN or KY or WV in the fall. But we are going to win OR. You clinonarians forget your own talking points.

IN and KY are gonna make the supers line up for Hillarious? Doubt it. Even then, you still have to depend on supers to overturn the primaries. Not a good idea.

Will you vote for Obama if he is the candidate?

[hell-bent]

65. Yes, I will holding my nose while I vote.

Pledged delegate count doesn't mean jack shit at this point. They(SDs)will look at the caucus process and compare it to the primary vote process and conclude that the caucuses are a bunch of horse shit! If it was winner take all delegates as the Repukes have done in their primaries; then, Clinton would be way ahead in delegate counts. The GE is done this way. The caucus system is the most fucked up process that anyone could imagine. Leave it to we Democrats to have such a stupid, undemocratic system of awarding the delegates. A candidate gets the most votes in a state,(Texas,etc.)and the opponent gets more delegates. What a democracy! Stalin would be very happy...........

[haymakeragain]

68. You need to check your talking points, Hillarians have been

screaming about counting the votes and how Obama is disenfranchising Florida and Michigan (a pantload but they are still selling it), yet now you want to do away with ALL the votes and caucuses?

Damn.

[Quintana-Jones]

64. Clinton has been ahead in Indiana for weeks anyway

I don't see a big boost for her.

[Phillycat]

67. "ERROR: you've already recommended this thread"

:D :thumbsup: :bounce:

[rodeodance]

71. :-)

[Maribelle]

73. Looks like Obama is in free fall to me.

Gravity pulls. I love you Mother Earth!



:kick:

[JanErikFl]

74. So cool. Hopy you all have read the fact check about the false "Magnaquench" story

source: http://facts.hillaryhub.com/

Today, McClatchy published an article with the headline "Clinton blasts Bush for not stopping a project Bill OK'd," implying that the Clinton administration approved the move of a Indiana factory to China. In fact, the Clinton administration specifically prohibited the company, Magnaquench, from moving Indiana jobs overseas.

In 1995, Magnaquench was purchased by a consortium of investors that included two Chinese investors. At the time, the purchase was reviewed by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), and was approved on the condition that the production and the technology to produce neo-magnets would stay in the U.S.

In 2003, the Magnaquench investors announced their intention to move the production facility in Valpariaso, Indiana to China. Senator Bayh and numerous others in Congress raised concerns that the move violated the initial terms of the deal, and introduced new national security problems. They pleaded with President Bush to review and halt the deal. President Bush refused, and the jobs and production were moved to China.

Details below:

1. 1995 agreement was premised on agreement that jobs and production would remain in the United States.

David Cay Johnston: Clinton administration imposed condition 'that the new owners keep magnet production and technology in the United States.'

Evan Bayh: Investors in 1995 'promised to maintain U.S. production of the magnets.' “The U.S. high-performance magnet industry has been hit hard in recent years by China' efforts to dominate the market. Five years ago, the state lost more than 225 jobs when Chinese investors moved the operations of Indiana-based Magnaquench to China. Magnaquench, which had operations in Valparaiso and Anderson, was originally purchased in 1995 by a group of investors that included two Chinese companies. The investors promised to maintain U.S. production of the magnets but in 2003 backed out on that promise."

2. 2003, President Bush failed to use his authority to block the movement of jobs and production overseas.

Bayh and Visclosky sought help from Bush Administration to halt the closing. “In September of 2003, Magnaquench was in the process of closing down their Indiana production plant, with intentions of moving operations to China, and headquarters to Singapore. This move is of particular interest to homeland security because this plant made 80% of the rare-earth magnets used in the construction of U.S. “smart bombs”. Democratic Representative Pete Visclosky and Senator Evan Bayh have been attempting to gain support from President Bush to halt the closing, citing national security concerns.”

Bayh: 2003 decision 'raised new questions' about national security concerns because the jobs would be transferred. “We understand that CFIUS approved both the 1995 purchase of Magnequench by a consortium that included two Chinese companies and Magnequench's acquisition of the Valparaiso facility in 2000. However, the potential transfer of these operations to China raises new questions about maintaining both a significant source of domestic production of rare-earth magnets and U.S. technological leadership for these critical production technologies.”

Bush Administration 'offered no response' to Congressional inquiries in 2003. “Then, when the Chinese owners in 2003 shut down Magnequench's Valparaiso, Ind. production plant and moved equipment to China, CFIUS offered no response when Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) requested an inquiry. Bayh became concerned that the Chinese might corner the market on a sensitive military technology. Defense Department contacts informed his staff that Magnequench provided 80 percent of the guidance magnets used in smart bombs. Still, CFIUS refused to provide information about its Magnequench review despite requests from Bayh and from two key Senate committees: the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees CFIUS, according to a former Senate aide who sought to contact CFIUS.”

4/30/2008 12:33:52 PM #


source: http://facts.hillaryhub.com/