perform this experiment with CNN"s delegate calculator

[Lerkfish]

go here:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

give Hillary 70% of every remaining state.
give Hillary 50% of the supers

realize that CNN gives her Florida and Michigan already.

SHE STILL COMES UP 2 DELEGATES SHORT OF THE NOMINATION.


try it, and see.

[Coexist]

1. LOL - I'll take your word for it

[BklynChick]

2. that's ok, I believe you. math is a beautiful thing.

[JuniperLea]

3. Two whole delegates, huh?

And what do you suppose the margin of error is, three?

[tekisui]

5. I think the point is that she is not going to win by 70 and then pull 50.

[Terran]

6. It simple math

There is no margin of error. The only gray area is the supers.

[JuniperLea]

21. That's a pretty big gray area. eom

[Terran]

23. Not so much

Not when all the hard numbers are in Obama's favor, and not when 60% of the public finds HRC untrustworthy. There's only the human factor of non-predictability. It's always conceivable that the supers will pick HRC...just very very unlikely.

[JuniperLea]

45. Believing polls/fairy tales

for part of the equation doesn't give me much faith.

[Lerkfish]

13. um, math-impaired dude? its not an opinion poll, its a delegate calculator

no margin of error, just simple direct tabulation.

If you're supporting Clinton, and your math is this bad, then I think we've figured something out, haven't we?

[ClassWarrior]

18. "Then I think we've figured something out, haven't we?"

:rofl:

NGU.

[JuniperLea]

19. Think again, genius

Not a dude, and I'm not supporting either of the fucked up losers that have been handed to us. I'll be holding my nose and voting for whomever gets the nomination and is still being called a Democrat.

[Lerkfish]

20. dudette, then, your math skills are still not there.

which is the whole point of YOUR post and my response to it. I cannot always determine gender on the internet, NOR do I expect that everyone self-professes that correctly.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

30. "...fucked up losers..."

I finally understand.

[JuniperLea]

46. do you?

do you understand that there are actually people who don't really care for either Democratic candidate, but who are fully intending on voting against the Republican candidate? or is this merely a personal jab because you can't think in those terms?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

61. Repeating your own words is a personal jab?

I apologize.

[thoughtcrime1984]

35. Fucked up losers? Wow.

Are you a fucked up winner?

[JuniperLea]

44. Jeez... what a laugh riot...

They are both smelly politicians... Hillary too old school, Obama trying hard not to be but obviously being poorly advised by some old schoolers.

What is it with the Obama and Clinton Kool Aid swillers? No one can have an opinion unless they like your candidate? Jeez.

[thoughtcrime1984]

59. Well, don't be such a dick about it

You fancy yourself as "above the fray" I'm sure. :eyes:

[tekisui]

4. My estimation, being generous to Hillary requires he to convince 87%

of the remaining Superdelegates to break to her instead of Obama. It ain't gonna happen. They are letting the Primaries play out. As McCaskill said, they are uncommitted, not undecided.

[SoCalDem]

33. I just wish they would "go there" and commit..and when he reaches "the number"

it's game over..announce that he won. and let Hillie & Billie just keep on Huckabeeing around, while Barack rests up for the GE :)

[redqueen]

7. People get so upset when you point out these uncomfortable facts.

It makes them have to realize they have been PLAYED by the M$M.

[Lerkfish]

15. oh, De Nile is a very long and very deep river. Some who take a dip never come up

for air.

:)

[DrFunkenstein]

8. But Are You Going to Allow The Party to Nominate Obama X?

Don't you know that the guy is a Muslim drug-dealer who went to a radical madrassa and will allow your children to die in their sleep? Didn't you see the ad with Osama Bin Laden? Do you really trust this radical black militant and his 20-year nutball mentor to oversee health care reform?

Did I mention he hates gay people?

[Lerkfish]

16. Well, the white idiot we have now ain't doing all that well.

:)

[jsamuel]

9. if clinton gets 55% in every state and 70% of the supers, she gets 2025

[truebrit71]

17. Except there's NO way that happens...

...

[jsamuel]

24. well, she could get 60 in some and 52 in others.

like Kentucky and WV

If she wins almost all of the remaining states, ends up winning the popular vote, and continues to show strength against McCain in OH and FL, that may be enough to get the supers to back her.

[truebrit71]

25. Won't happen. Next Tuesday seals the deal.

...She's toast.

[truebrit71]

10. Interesting that the Clinton News Network has just "given" her MI and FL..you know like it was legit

..or something :eyes:

Leave the supers alone she STILL can't beat him winning 67% of the remaining states INCLUDING Mi and Fl....

Can you spell "toast"?

I knew that you could....:evilgrin:

[CakeGrrl]

27. At least they didn't add the delegates, but they do like to make it LOOK pro-HRC, don't they? n/t

[PBS Poll-435]

11. Here Ya Go!

[Gore1FL]

26. So I guess you will believe she cannot win it if:

she doesn't get 100% of Guam, 70% of Montana, 75% of Puerto Rico, 57% of Indiana, 68% of West Virginia, 54% of Oregon OR 60% of South Dakota?

This will be over this Sunday then when she secures 2/4 of Guam...

[PBS Poll-435]

32. Don't put words in my mouth.

The OP asked for a way, I showed a way.

[Gore1FL]

43. But if that ios the best way you can find

and it fails, what else is there?

[PBS Poll-435]

51. Gonna need a translation on that Dostoyevsky-quality post.

[Gore1FL]

52. OK I didn;t realize one typo would throw you

If that is your best scenario, and it doesn't work, what else do you have pretend she can overcome her huge delegate gap?

If that wasn't your best scenario, then why did you post it instead of your best scenario?

[PBS Poll-435]

54. I just posted 1 possible scenario.

Possible. It can happen and this is NOT over, contrary to the opinions of some here.

[Gore1FL]

55. Well wake me up when Clinton wins Guam by 100%

I suppose anything is possible. We could be invaded by aliens in the next five seconds, but they will be forced to withdraw when they find out we used compact bulbs, and on their planet, they are considered WMDs.

Yep it's as possible as Clinton sweeping the remaining contests by 60%-100%...

[woolldog]

28. Pretty unrealistic.

100% of Guam? And she won't win Montana, let alone by 40% or South Dakota, and certainly not 60-40. Obama is favored in all those contests. She also won't win PR-75/25.

Also, super-d's haven't been breaking 65-35. they've been breaking 50-50 or better for Obama. It looks like the floodgates are opening and they will all start declaring sooner rather than later, which is very good for Obama.

[PBS Poll-435]

31. He was favored to win NC by a huge margin too. It now looks like that is not going to happen.

[woolldog]

36. Even so, I think your margins are unrealistic.

esp in PR, Montana, ND, and Guam.

And the fact is that she *barely* tops the magic number even with all those unrealistic assumptions....which says a lot.

(The IA NC poll has some serious flaws. I suspect it was put together in the way it was more for propaganda purposes than to enlighten us about what might happen on Tuesday.)

[PBS Poll-435]

37. Guam, obviously.

I think she will get 3 or 4 delegates and not two.

We will have to see about NC. I have a feeling it is going to be really close.

[WeDidIt]

12. Come off it, you Obamatron!

Everybody knows that Math has a well known pro-Obama bias.

:sarcasm:

[Lerkfish]

14. yeah, me and my superfocused math skills.

LOL

[Tribetime]

22. The only State that counts is DENIAL

[Bucky]

29. I've done the math a little more realistically.

If Clinton wins every Clinton state by 58% to 42% (Indiana, West Virginia, Puerto Rico, & Kentucky)

But Obama only wins his states by 52% to 48% (North Carolina, South Dakota, Oregon, & Montana)

and then Clinton ultimately wins 67% of the remaining superdelegates...



She still comes up short of Obama's total by 18 votes.

[jsamuel]

34. heh, the same amount Edwards has, lol

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

38. It's broken!

Why does Hillary keep losing!?! :grr:

[Lerkfish]

41. LOL! actual math is a clinton-hater

:)

[zerostar]

39. Neither will have enough? so who decides then?

[rock]

42. The delegates

All of them super and regular. Maybe at that stage MI & FL delegates as well.

[BootinUp]

40. Why only 50% of the supers?

She is going to get more than that.

[dbmk]

49. Yeah, is really trending that way.

not.

[BootinUp]

50. Are you trying to convince me or yourself

that the trends you observed will continue?

[Texas Hill Country]

47. they are not adding FL and MI delegates to her total.

[dbmk]

48. Their calculator is crap.

It does not take into account districts and that Guam has 8 ½delegates. Sloppy work.

[palindrome]

53. give her a bunch of Obama SDs if his polls drop and what happens

This could go many different ways... until recently he had an 85% win according to intrade markets. If you'd bet on Hill last week you'd have some money today

[cascadiance]

56. I'm betting most of the uncomitted delegates are leaning Obama...

At least those uncommitted that are in states that went to Clinton (New York, California, etc.).

If they were for Clinton, and their states were committed to Clinton, they shouldn't have much to lose by selecting Clinton now. Nor is it too difficult for Obama favoring SD's in Obama winning states.

If they are for Obama, and their states were committed to Clinton, or they haven't voted yet, they just sit back and wait until Obama wins an unbeatable edge in pledged delegates. Then with the pledged delegate race "decided" they can justify their vote to commit to Obama contrary to their state votes because they'll wan to "unify behind the nations' choice". If they commit too early, the other side will claim that they aren't waiting until its decided and are trying to override their state's and/or the national vote of delegates.

Now in the case of Clinton favoring delegates in states that voted for Obama, they have a difficult choice. They can wait until the last minute to see if Hillary can pull it out, but that's pretty unlikely now. So the penalty of committing early isn't much different than if they wait. Therefore, if they are going to override their state, they might as well do it now if they want to push Hillary ahead to win.

So, I think a lot of the uncommitted delegates are favoring Obama and holding off committing until that unbeatable lead is in place. Then I think you'll see a whole SLEW of them committing to Obama.

I think that there are many out there that are wise to the voter being angry with them in the voting booth if they go against both their state's and national vote in their superdelegate vote.

[Turn CO Blue]

57. The conclusion is also clear switching percents for SD & states

Using your 70% and your 50%

Give Senator Clinton the vast majority of 70% of all the remaining Super Delegates (unlikely)
Split all the remaining state contests evenly at 50%

Obama still wins 2024 and Senator Clinton is 22 short at 2002.

[cindyw]

58. Okay how about a more realistic count. She wins by 10% in every state from now on.

Maybe not realistic, but could happen. This means that she would need 72% of every superdelegate left to get 2027.

[Lord Helmet]

60. she can't win but won't concede, it's all about her