What are the Pubs smokin? They think Minnesota is in play for 2004.

[ALago1]

I was watching Hardball and the governor of Minnesota (a republican btw) was on.

He claims that the state will be going Republican this year due to recent demographic and cultural changes that have taken place there.

Hasn't Minnesota consistently gone Dem. in every election in recent history? What do recent polls there indicate? I just simply can't fathom this occuring.

[aquart]

1. I dunno. They got new voting machines, maybe?

[fujiyama]

2. Gore won it

by less than 4%. Also republicans took one of the senate seats and has a republican governor. It's understandable why it would be considered a swing state.

However, I don't see it as going to Bush this year. Kerry has had some decent leads -- most have him up by around 5 points or so. A recent Rasmussen poll had him up by 9.

[bluestateguy]

3. It is in play

Polls show Kerry with a small lead there, but it is not to be taken for granted. Al Gore did just that, and had to come in a shore it up in October. He won it 48%-46% with almost 6% for Nader.

There are a lot of fundamentalistwackos and selfish white suburbanites and on the Left flank there are a lot of Naderites who like to whine and complain.

[RichV]

4. Closer than we'd like, but not a battleground

Just a shame we can't get rid of Norm Coleman sooner. Asshat.

[joanne]

5. The state that gave us Paul Wellstone

A shame.

It should be a cakewalk for Kerry.

I think he will take it but it will be close.

Makes me wonder why Iowa and Wisconsin could possibly be in play as well.

[shockingelk]

6. MN is absolutely not in play

Kerry's ahead in polls of likely voters: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

There will be multitudes of first time voters voting for Kerry. In my precinct, we had to spill out into the hall so many showed up for the caucus. The precinct had never been able to provide more than 10-15 delegates to the state convention - this year, all 50 some delegate and alternate spots were easily filled.

In MN, you can register the day of the General Election at your polling place. These polls we're seeing do not include first time voters as they go off of voter lists provided by the Secretary of State.

No way Republicans will be able to get enough people out to vote to counter the deluge of first time Kerry voters.

[bushwakker]

7. Recent elections seem to indicate a GOP trend in MN

Election of Ventura (whom I consider to more a GOPer than Dem) Coleman and Pawlenty were surprises to many of us who had thoyght MN as a pretyy reliable Dem state.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

8. It's not RELIABLY Democratic

I'm a native, and throughout the 1950s and 1960s, the Democrats and Republicans practically took turns controlling the state. Of course, those were the days when the Republican were still sane. The difference between the two parties was more a matter of emphasis than a matter of rabid ideology.

BTW, Minnesota went for Nixon in 1972, even though, I'm proud to say, I voted absentee for McGovern while going to school in New York State. I wasn't paying much attention to elections before 1968, when Hubert Humphrey was on the ticket, but I remember the buzz on the University of Minnesota campus the day after Election Day, when the results were delayed. Some people carried radios around with them and announced the latest results to their classes or to the riders of the campus shuttle bus.

I live in Minneapolis now, and my precinct had nearly four times as many people turn out on caucus night as in the previous election cycle. I canvassed for Kucinich in my neighborhood, and even the people who weren't able to come to caucus said that they were definitely going to vote against Bush.

I'm seeing lots of Kerry bumperstickers and window and yard signs. Kerry is definitely winning the bumpersticker wars. The few Bush/Cheney bumperstickers have been on either beatup old pickup trucks or tasteless rich people Cadillacs.

I haven't been out in the boonies lately, but the key to winning Minnesota will definitely be turnout in Minneapolis, St. Paul, and the Iron Range.

[ALago1]

11. Thanks for the firsthand report

Sounds pretty promising!

[shockingelk]

17. Two three-way races + a candidate that campaigned a week

I don't want to say "yeah, but ..."

BUT, Mondale did only get to campaign 1 week, the other two were three way races.

Also, they were all open seats ... we have an incumbent in the White House that's not well liked ... lots of anger. I think, for instance, Bush would not be popular with the type of independent voters who that came out in response to Ventura's campaign.

[WI_DEM]

9. they thought they could win it in '00 too

and it was pretty close.

[featherman]

10. The upper Midwest is a core DEM region

and needed in any electoral projection. Although some may end up close (as low as 2% or so depending on Nader vote), I see all going blue in the final tally. This is the state list for this key region ranked according to my level of confidence based on historical trends:
IL, MI, IA, MN, WI

[ALago1]

12. Welcome to DU featherman!

:)

[goodhue]

13. It is in play.

Why else do you think both Kerry and Bush were both in northern MN recently?

[dflprincess]

14. Minnesota is in play

The demographic changes refer to more people living in the suburbs. I'm also firmly convinced the state has become the victim of the Yuppie scum that have moved into it because the quality of life was always rated so high. Sadly, once they got here, they didn't want to keep paying the taxes that created that quality of life so they vote for *holes like Pawlenty and Coleman.

On the somewhat brighter side, Nader got about 5% of the vote here in 2000 so Bush actually lost the state by 9%, not just the 4% Gore beat him by. If fewer people vote for Nader this year, our chances improve, it may also help that there are formerly moderate Republicans who have declared themselves to now be independents, there's even a former Republican state supreme court justice who has endorsed Kerry. We may pick up some votes from Republicans that can't stand their own party any more.

[indigo32]

15. I think we'll take it

I can understand why they think it's in play, and I don't take anything for granted. But I LIVE in the burbs, and there are definitely Dems there, motivated Dems.
Obviously the city has to turn out and I think it will. No I'm not losing sleep over it.
Sigh... now if they could just figure out what a horrible idea Pawlenty and Coleman were. Yuch!

[MsUSA]

16. The high Nader vote in 2000 will be turned to Kerry this time.....

*keeping fingers crossed* I'm in rural Southeast Minnesota, and there's a lot of B/C bumper stickers around here......but just in talking to others I think Kerry will do OK here.

[goodhue]

18. Not necessarily here in Mpls/St. Paul

Progressives who were on board with Kucinich seem to be breaking pretty evenly between Kerry and Nader (or Cobb) I'm afraid.
Nader plus Cobb still likely to be 3% if not more. Some of us are doing our best to keep them with the democrats but Kerry is giving precious little with which to work. It's pretty sad really.