Decision facing SDs

[JMDEM]

Who would you pick if you were an SD?

Barring Hillary taking all remaining states by some huge margin (80%?), Hillary will end up behind in the delegate count.

If the SDs choose Hillary under these circumstances, it could fracture the Democratic party for years to come. Young people, people of color, the most progressive of Dems might largely stay home during the GE out of apathy, anger, and disgust. This is not intended as a threat, it just could happen very easily. And the damage could be very long lasting.

The massive grass roots organization that Obama has created on his own would simply be thrown in the garbage heap. Discarded.

Dems staying home in droves would ripple into all elections, ensuring that many Republicans get elected at many levels.

Conversely, Hillary supporters might also abandon the GE elections if Obama is nominated.

Obama has been careful NOT to personally attack Hillary, probably knowing that he needs her voters if he wins the primaries. The opposite has not been true -- Hillary has played slash and burn Rove style tactics against Obama, seemingly intent on taking him down with her if she loses. But does this make any difference to the Hillary supporters? They may still hate Obama enough, regardless of the lack of personal attacks, to not vote for him.

Here on DU, we may not view the attack issue this way. Both sides have been attacking the other with equal ferocity. But above the fray here, Obama HAS refrained from the personal attacks, while Hillary has engaged in them gleefully.

Hillary has tried to push around and bully the SDs. How does this play with them? There was the infamous letter of the top 20 Hillary donors to Pelosi, threatening to cut off donations. Most recently, there was Hillary's adamant insistence of knowing WHO was on her side on the gas tax issue. This cannot sit well with the SDs.

"Electability" against McCain is a big issue. A major Hillary strategy at this point is to claim she is more electable. How valid is this? Is California really going to turn red if Obama is the candidate? Is New York really going to turn red? What about PA and OH, key swing states? But what difference does this make if many young people, many people of color, and many progressives sit out the election if Hillary is nominated?

Personally, I don't think the SDs can ignore the Obama movement at this point, and throw it on the garbage heap. I think they know what this will do to the Democratic Party. Given that Obama will come in to the convention with the lead in delegates, I don't think they can risk fracturing the Democratic party beyond repair. They may also be really tired of being bullied, threatened, and pushed around by Clinton, and may want to teach her a bit of a lesson in this regard, if only to send a message to future candidates.

So I think that many SDs will take the gamble with Obama. The gamble obviously involves skeletons in the closet, losing Reagan Democrats, and losing Clinton supporters. This is being weighed against irreparable damage to the Democratic Party and throwing Obama's magnificent grass roots organization onto the garbage heap.

A final note: regarding skeletons in the closet -- guess who has full access to all the private records of the 8 years the Clintons were in the White House? Can you say Bush? Can you say Rove?
Yes you can. Perhaps now it might be a bit clearer why the Republicans want Hillary so badly. Imagine the scandals that lie there. Imagine them being drug out one at a time from August to November. Ouch.

[DevonRex]

1. There's definitely a reason that Rush and Coulter and Fox News

all want to face Hillary in the GE. Doesn't take a genius to figure out why, does it. Great post. K&R

[RiverStone]

2. .....irreparable damage to the Democratic Party

Is exactly what would happen if the SD's pulled of a Hillary coup. In the 30 years they have been around, never have the SD's over-rode the will of the pledged delegates.

Don't expect that kind of history to be made this time either.

Obama will be our nominee. :)

[MattP]

3. No SD's

This is why they shouldn't have SD's if they left it up to the will of the people nobody would be crying foul and it would all be up to the delegate count.

[JMDEM]

4. Well, you may have a point there... nt.

[solidguild]

5. We should abandon both superdelegates and caucuses

After the election of President Obama. Between his first and second terms will be a good non-controversial time to do it.

[newmajority]

7. Abandon caucuses? I don't think so

It's not even up for discussion, as long as electro-fraud machines exist.

[solidguild]

8. It could be part of a two-prong campaign reform effort

Democrats streamline their own nomination process, while instilling huge campaign and voting machine reform on a federal level after we take back the White House.

[barack the house]

6. The trend of SDs is to Obama and it increases with time so probably why a long race is good.

[TragedyandHope]

9. Of the handful of SD interviews I've seen

the SDs specifically dismissed a lot of the hotly disputed factors here on DU, like "electability," "big states," Wright and so on. They are looking at the popular vote and what's best for the party and the country moving forward. They're also trying to figure out how the party can gain the most seats in Congress. They see the record turnouts and assume enough of the other candidates supporters will stay loyal to the party in November, so either candidate would do well in any of the states with close Primary results.

Whichever candidate is our nominee, the Rethugs are going to pull out all the stops on their slime machine this year. They aren't even warmed up yet. I fear this may be one of the dirtiest elections ever. Our candidate must connect with voters, stay focused on the goal of leading America forward and turn the negatives into positives.

For months now the general consensus has been, "Well, Obama is the nominee unless some unknown catastrophe strikes." It hasn't. Obama has weathered multiple attacks with grace and he's still going strong.

Clinton can coast along through the rest of the states on her First Lady legacy and the entrenched Clinton network, but I don't see that as a reason for the SDs to swing her way. On the contrary, you can see them becoming more and more vocal about the need to limit damage to the party. It's time to move on to the next step, unify the party and start going after McCain.

Whether Obama is the nominee next week or in June after all the votes have been counted, I don't see much changing between now and then.

[depakid]

10. None of the two above is also an option

though I tend to think historically- and with respect to the way other western nations do things.

As in- elections are called about 6 weeks before people vote (though posturing does go on for a bit longer than that).