Guam Daily News: Obama still leading in Guam with only Dededo to count

[featherman]

"With only Dededo left to count, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus. Clinton will need to win Dededo by 204 votes to overtake Obama. Dededo is Guam’s most populous village."

http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504017

Dededo should come in at about 900 votes so Cinton will need to win it by 550 to 350 or so to get close enouhg to avoid the possible Obama upset in a primary which EVERY prognosticator who took a shot at guessing this one picked it as a very big win for Clinton.

The pro-Obama ticket of Lujan/Paulino has an insurmountable lead in the race for chair/ vice chair. This will add two more SD's to Obama's total from Guam.

[DAGDA56]

1. Those Dededoians! Always hogging the spotlight!

[StevieM]

2. Another day, another made up crisis. Nobody had any clue how Guam would vote (eom)

[Cha]

3. Another day another freakin' delusional

post by stevieforhilary(snipers).

[Cha]

4. Gawd Guam! Please

do your Pacific Rim Obama thing with Aloha B-)

[jenmito]

5. On CNN, Bill Schneider just said it was expected to be an easy win for Obama.

:eyes: The spin kills me.

[MH1]

6. CNN: Clinton News Network

[jenmito]

7. I know. It's unbelievable how they're promoting her. They're stationed at all the Clinton events..

even when they're finished.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

8. Too bad there are all those pesky newspaper articles available

[spooky3]

9. So did the Obama campaign, according to this source:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5799157&mesg_id=5800339

[livetohike]

10. I guess the goal posts moved again, huh?

:hi:

[TahitiNut]

11. Bill Schneider carries water for the conservatives like Gunga Din without the turben.

He's a smarmy fuck, imho, Candy Crowley's stinking kin.

[jenmito]

18. Hiring Tony Snow was a clear signal that their true colors are RED and MORE red.

Yes, Candy Crowley, Jessica Yellin, etc. The only good guys are Roland Martin and Jack Cafferty.

[featherman]

12. CBS predicted Hillary win as did the greenpapers, word press, others

"Hillary, as of today, is expected to win West Virginia, Kentucky, Guam and Puerto Rico. "

http://cbslocalblogs.prospero.com/n/blogs/blog.aspx?webtag=kyw_backroom&entry=3

Green Papers: 74-26% Clinton

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/GU-D.phtml

The Word Press: Clinton 61%, Obama 38%

http://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2008/05/01/prediction-for-the-guam-democratic-territorial-convention-clinton-to-win/

Dr Who goes with "the conventional wisdom" and predicts: Clinton by 65-35%
"I could not find any polls for Guam, so I’ll go with the conventional wisdom. Since I don’t expect there will be any significant campaigning here, I’ll assume name recognition will play a big role. So I’ll go with Clinton +30 and give her 3 of the 4 Guam pledged delegates.
Obama: 35%; 1 pledged; 1491 total pledged; 1739 total delegates
Clinton: 65%; 3 pledged; 1337 total pledged; 1604 total delegates"

http://openthread.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/2/20111/46760/475/508035

[spooky3]

13. thanks for these links, but

The first source links to the blog of an anchor of a local CBS affiliate. Where's the evidence that CBS predicted this, as you claimed? (or did a poll suggesting this outcome)?

I didn't see poll results or predictions on your second source. I saw only today's results. I searched the second source for the number 74 and the only 74's that turned up were in today's actual voting results. Maybe it's been changed.

Your third source calls himself a Republican or Republican/libertarian. He is giving his opinions/predictions, but they don't seem to be based on any evidence.

Who knows what Dr. Who means by "conventional wisdom"? It seems to be his/her own opinion and nothing more. It is at least a semi-caucus, in which Obama has done well in other states, and Guam shares many cultural ties to Indonesia, where Obama spent part of his childhood. It seems to me that the conventional wisdom, if there is such a thing, would pick Obama--as did his own campaign.

As another DUer's link to politico.com showed (in my reply before this one), in Feb. Obama's own campaign predicted a 55/45% Guam spread favoring him. Looks as if they were pretty close. However, if he doesn't get 55%, as I understand it, both candidates get 2 pledged delegates.

[my3boyz]

14. The poster did not say the news organizations had any PROOF that she

would win! The poster was saying that pundits thought she would win it. When you watch MSNBC and Tweety says he thinks Hillary will win this state or that state that is their hunch. So the press did think Hillary would win it.

[featherman]

15. Not a lot of "prognosticators" took a chance on this one... but the ones

I remembered reading over the months were all "Clinton win". Rightly or wrongly. No polling so I'm guessing those who went out on a limb were guessing Clinton visit in 95, name recognition, catholic vote etc. without knowing too much about it. I know Guam personally and figured that it would be more like it turned out.

My only point is that those who dared to guess were guessing Clinton. I haven't seen any link with the reverse prediction but there could be one out there.

[Cha]

17. "Dr Who" sounds like a real brilliant piece of

crystal ball.

Edit~ Thanks for the link Proof, featherman!

[jenmito]

19. Wow-thanks for all that info.!

I hadn't seen many/any estimates about Guam. :hi:

[Cha]

16. And bill schneider being one of the larger mediawhores

..I remember when I use to watch he was creepily shilling for bush.

We should email them and say, "with all due respect.. you're lying."

So they're pushing if it was suppose to be an easy win for Obama then the Bosnian Sniper Liar has a Surge!

I hope when Obama thanks the People in Guam he mentions that he came from behind to beat senator gag clinton..that's one way to get the real news out.

[jenmito]

20. Yeah...

and then another guy (I forget who) said he was a little surprised at how close the results were since Obama was supposed to win by a large margin.

[Cha]

21. That must be real depressing

for you to watch that to see what they're up to? Thanks again for being one of our recons. :)

cnn needs to go out of business.

[jenmito]

22. Yeah...

I hate it, but I can't look away. :)