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Obama's 6% win in Guam win a full 2/3 of way to MASSIVE, DOUBLE-DIGIT VICTORY Clinton had in PA

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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:09 PM
Original message
Obama's 6% win in Guam win a full 2/3 of way to MASSIVE, DOUBLE-DIGIT VICTORY Clinton had in PA
Edited on Sat May-03-08 05:10 PM by BullGooseLoony
ENORMOUS win for Obama. I am STUNNED he did so well.


6%. Unbelievable.

I think I need to take a walk to enjoy this, have a smoke.


Just wow.
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Windy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:10 PM
Response to Original message
1. try a 3% difference.... n/t
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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. But that's nothing.
That's only 1/3 of 9%.


3% = bollocks

6% = enormous freaking win

ALMOST even 9%!!! Huge.
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PseudoIntellect Donating Member (701 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:11 PM
Response to Original message
2. 6.6/9.4 = 70%.
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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. PLUS, you round 0.7 up to 1, which is 100%.
And 100% of 9.4% is 9.4%, which means, according to the MSM, Obama TRULY DID get a MASSIVE FREAKING DOUBLE-DIGIT WIN in Guam!


LOL.


I love thinking like Hillary supporters. There's so much room for creativity.
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JanErikFl Donating Member (55 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:12 PM
Response to Original message
3. Obama get 1 new delegate per 2107 voters in undemocratic caucus format
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5653831&mesg_id=5653831

Let's look at the delegate margins Obama has assembled in the caucus format.


Wyoming Caucus - +2 Obama
Texas Caucus - +9 Obama
Hawaii Caucus - +8 Obama
Maine Caucus - +6 Obama
Washington Caucus - +26 Obama
Nebraska Caucus - +8 Obama
North Dakota Caucus - +3 Obama
Minnesota Caucus - +24 Obama
Kansas Caucus - +14 Obama
Idaho Caucus - +12 Obama
Colorado Caucus +15 Obama
American Somoa Caucus - -1 Obama
Alaska Caucus - +5 Obma
Nevada Caucus - +1 Obama
Iowa Caucus - +11 Obama


From that list, we can determine that Obama has gained 143 more delegates from the caucus format than Hillary. The final delegate count for Pennsylvania is still being counted, but let's for the sake of argument say she came out of Pennsylvania
with a +12 delegates over Obama, which seems like a likely middle ground for what will happen..

Now, let's evaluate the final voter data in Pennsylvania, based on yesterday's primary:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/stat...

Clinton: 1,260,208 votes
Obama: 1,045,444 votes.

2,305,652 voters in PA showed up at the polls to vote in the Democratic primary. Hillary received 214,764 more voters than Obama in Pennsylvania.

As I said above, let's assume Hillary won 12 delegates. Now let's see how many votes Hillary earned per delegate. She received 214,764 more votes and she received 12 more delegates. Using that calculation, for every 17897 additional votes she receieved, she received an additional delegate more than Obama.

--------------------------------------

Now let's look over the data in the caucuses:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/popul...
Obama 754,959
Clinton 453,649

1,208,608 estimated voters total have showed up at 15 caucuses. That is a little more than half of how many voters showed up at one primary, in Pennsylvania!

Yet Obama receives +143 more delegates than Hillary due to the caucus format. Let's do the math. Let's look at how many more voters Obama has received in the caucuses. 301310 more voters have voted for Obama than Hillary in these caucuses. And Obama has earned 143 additional delegates from those 301,310 additional voters. Using these calculations, for every 2107 additional voters Obama received in these caucuses, he received an additional delegate.

Now, let's recap:
Hillary in Pennsylvania: She earned an additional delegate every 17897 voters.
Obama in caucuses: He earned an additional delegate every 2107 voters.

If you need any more examples of how undemocratic caucuses actually are, here it is. Those who are arguing in favor of Obama's “significant” pledged delegate lead typically say that if Obama wasn't chosen as the nominee, then democracy would be subverted. Yet as shown above, caucuses are the very example of an undemocratic election and Obama has benefited extensively from them.

Now, let's look at turnout rates in which Obama received all these delegates from the caucus format, and let's compare them to Pennsylvania, where Hillary only received 12 additional delegates.

Iowa - 16%
Nevada - 10%
Alaska - 5%
Colorado - 6%
Idaho - 2%
Kansas - 2%
Minnesota - 7%
North Dakota - 6%
Nebraska - 3%
Maine - 5%
Wyoming - 3%

You average these all together, and you get a 6% turnout rate. Now, let's look at Pennsylvania's turnout rate.

Pennsylvania – 39%

Obama recieves an additional delegate per 2107 voters in 6% turnout races, while Hillary receive an additional delegate per 17897 voters in a 39% turnout race. Obama has padded his pledged delegate lead in very undemocratic ways, and for Obama supporters to say that Hillary would be subverting democracy if she won the nomination when Obama's entire lead is built on sham undemocratic caucuses - is laughable and ironic.
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SoFlaJet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. another new member of the Clinton campaign
heard from...I swear so much spinning will make you dizzy
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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:16 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. Caucuses aren't undemocratic.
Just because Hillary can't win them, doesn't make them undemocratic.
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JanErikFl Donating Member (55 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:18 PM
Original message
Caucuses does not give dems the GE, winning big states in primaries does
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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:19 PM
Response to Original message
16. Caucuses are not undemocratic.
And, Obama will beat McCain in all the Blue States, and pick off several Red States like Virginia and Nevada, etc.
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CakeGrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:21 PM
Response to Original message
17. Winning big states in THE GE gives Dems the GE - big difference.
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:22 PM
Response to Original message
18. So, how long have you been an election expert, given your profile says you're a student from Norway?
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RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:55 PM
Response to Reply #9
34. It's precisely why they ARE democratic.
:think:
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #3
12. hillary's husband figured out how to do math..and she didn't
Edited on Sat May-03-08 05:18 PM by SoCalDem
he liked the UNDEMOCRATIC caucus system just fine..TWICE.. the rules were all known well in advance..(does the clinton campaign have issues with reading too?)

When you are running in a primary system, you have 50+ opportunities to gain DELEGATES (NOT popular votes).. A smart campaign sits down, well ahead of any actual contests, and figures out HOW to get the most DELEGATES, and then executes the plan..

A stupid campaign, "plans" on having rules bent, twisted, distorted, broken for them so they can have it "all over by Feb 5" :rofl:



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dbmk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #3
13. Hillary gets 1 new delegate from 1 vote from superdelegates.
Edited on Sat May-03-08 05:19 PM by dbmk
And so does Obama ofc. But he is not the one out there tearing the caucuses down after the fact - and speaking up SDs.
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Diane R Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #3
14. I am SO proud of Washington state! A big 27% win for Obama!!
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lojasmo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #14
35. 34% in Minnesota. Nyah, nyah! ;)
What state had the largest spread?
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GoesTo11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #3
19. A vote is a vote
Caucus votes are the same as primary votes. Why do they count for more? This is not fair. Only those who can go to caucuses get to vote. This is disenfranchisement. Out of 37000 people, only 2000 can go to caucuses, and these are mostly Obama supporters because they're rich and educated or they're African-American. It's not fair.
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. explain to me why being African-American makes it easier to caucus? nt
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EmperorHasNoClothes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #20
26. Duh, because AA's are lazy welfare queens, dummy!
:sarcasm:
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. oh, SURELY that's not what they were implying.....
:sarcasm:

:hi:
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thoughtcrime1984 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #3
21. SSOOOOOOO laughable
His supporters are willing to show up and raise their hand and say "I am for Obama", more than are willing to do that for Hillary. The fact that it takes a slight effort to vote pains Hillary supporters too much to participate, you say? Why did she not denounce caucuses before the cycle started? Is it because she believed she would win them, much as husband Bill did? Hell, she believed she would sweep this fucker right through Super Tuesday, and win the nomination easily. Well, boo f' ing hoo. This is the millionth time that I've seen whining over a caucus. Should've had that angst before. And, no matter how you slice it, Obama leads in total votes too, which we all know doesn't mean squat in primaries, as we are voting for delegates. Once again a Hillarite is for changing rules to whatever rule helps her win. Good luck finding that rule.
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PseudoIntellect Donating Member (701 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:29 PM
Response to Reply #3
22. "Obama get 1 new delegate per 2107 voters in undemocratic caucus format"
Uhm, what do you think Hillary gets? 1 new delegate per 2 million voters in undemocratic caucuses? Lol. They are both given an equal share in caucuses based on support.
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #3
23. I guess you should ahve worked to change things in 2006
when you could have made a difference and stopped the caucuses.

OOPS, I forgot, nobody gave a damn when Hillary Clinton wasn't losing.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:55 PM
Response to Reply #3
33. Lie. Caucuses are just as democratic as are primaries.
What's wholly UNdemocratic is the remedy Hillary's apologists are recommending - that the will of rank-in-file Democrats (voters and caucusers) be overturned by largely unelected, unaccountable party insiders...in the name of "it's Hillary's turn".
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Auntie Bush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:14 PM
Response to Original message
5. Smoking isn't good for you and makes you Loony.
At least you have a good excuse. :evilgrin:
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:15 PM
Response to Original message
8. Hold your horses--still waiting on one last precinct, 900-1400 votes' worth
Edited on Sat May-03-08 05:46 PM by rocknation
The fat lady hasn't even called a cab yet.

:headbang:
rocknation
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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:17 PM
Response to Original message
10. Clinton's did have a double digit win...
9.4----see, two digits. I'll bet Obama's in Guam was double-digit as well. :evilgrin:
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jody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:17 PM
Response to Original message
11. Caucuses can be stacked in Guam by either candidate just like the U.S. They show little about what
might happen in a primary or GE.
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Austinitis Donating Member (726 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:19 PM
Response to Original message
15. I think you're the only one who's "stunned"
The word they were using on TV was "underwhelming" and "Unimpressive".

But maybe you mean stunningly unimpressive?
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bunnies Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:36 PM
Response to Original message
24. You: "Obama's 6% win in Guam win a full 2/3 of way to MASSIVE, DOUBLE-DIGIT VICTORY...
Clinton had in PA.

Me: What the fuck are you talking about?! That sentence doesnt even make sense in English!
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WillyT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:39 PM
Response to Original message
25. Wow... I Didn't Know 9.4 Was Considered Double Digits ???
Learn something new every day from Hillary supporters.

HRC = New Math

:wtf:
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washingdem Donating Member (467 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:51 PM
Response to Original message
28. She won by 9 points. How is that double digits? Please explain.
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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:51 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. I have to admit that my sense of irony is a subtle one. nt
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washingdem Donating Member (467 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. Still, it wasn't double digits! This needs to be repudiated
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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. I'm mocking them. nt
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washingdem Donating Member (467 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. Yeah, I got it now, my fault for not reading closely. Rock on.
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:09 PM
Response to Original message
36. And here's why I told you to hold your horses
BREAKING NEWS 8:50 a.m. - Obama wins Guam caucus

8:50 a.m. — When all of the ballots were finally counted -- a process that lasted through the night until well after the sun was up -- Sen. Barack Obama had the most votes from Guam Democrats in the party’s caucus held yesterday.

Obama finished with 2,264 votes to Sen. Hillary Clinton’s 2,257 votes – a 7-point difference. Obama never trailed from the first vote count on.

Obama won 14 of 21 districts. Most districts that were won by Clinton were by small margins.

Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina, 151 in Inarajan, 46 in Asan, 55 in Chalan Pago, 87 in Santa Rita, 102 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 28 in Hagåtña, 158 in Barrigada, 36 in Merizo, 49 in Piti, 131 in Sinajana, 108 in Agana Heights, 194 in Mangilao 192 in Tamuning, 27 in Umatac, 76 in Talofofo, 224 in Yigo, 104 in Yona, 127 in Agat and 313 in Dededo for a total of 2,264 votes.

Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina, 87 in Inarajan, 33 in Asan, 87 in Chalan Pago, 73 in Santa Rita, 81 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 29 votes in Hagåtña, 166 in Barrigada, 33 in Merizo, 51 in Piti, 89 in Sinajana, 105 in Agana Heights, 155 in Mangilao, 193 in Tamuning, 24 in Umatac, 52 in Talofofo, 211 in Yigo, 98 in Yona, 141 in Agat and 509 in Dededo for a total of 2,257 votes.


rocknation
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VotesForWomen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:21 PM
Response to Original message
37. yeehawww! Obama wins another tiny little state that won't amount to a hill of beans for dems in Nov.
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GoesTo11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 08:51 PM
Response to Reply #37
38. Guam is not a state
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ruggerson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 08:54 PM
Response to Reply #37
39. Guam is a state?
I slept through that part of the movie.
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