O. wins Guam by 7 caucus votes**....NOT 7%: fraction of 1%; camp predicted 11% win.

[rodeodance]

O. wins Guam by 7 caucus votes**....NOT 7%: fraction of 1%; camp predicted 11% win.


What a squeakier. Congratulations O.


Onto Tuesday


http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504018

"When all of the ballots were finally counted -- a process that lasted through the night until well after the sun was up -- Sen. Barack Obama had the most votes from Guam Democrats in the party’s caucus held yesterday.

Obama finished with 2,264 votes to Sen. Hillary Clinton’s 2,257 votes – a 7-point difference.

…


Obama wins by a fraction of 1%.... but the Obama campaign expected him to win by 11%
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html

[FARAFIELD]

1. And he will win the Delegate thing 6-3 so congrats OBAMA

Another blow to the man who knows how to organize a caucus, put another way he will net 2 more from GUAM than he did from TEXAS. You only have to win by one friend.

[polpilot]

42. All the rodeo dancing in the world won't stop the Obama Train!!!

[GoldieAZ49]

47. Wrong, they split 4 delegates

so they are each up two

[PseudoIntellect]

51. There are 9 delegates up for grabs. 5 SDs, 4 PDs.

[AllentownJake]

2. I don't care

If he wonby 30% or lost by 30%. I think its silly that Guam and Puerto Rico get to way in on the nomination when they can't vote in the GE.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. I Agree

We should give commonwealths/territories the option to become states of independent nations...Anything less is imperialism...

[kwenu]

55. I think they can go independent by plebiscite but they don't pay U.S. income taxes.

They will pay U.S. income taxes if they opt for formal statehood status which is why usually prefer to maintain commonwealth/territory status. They apparently feel voting for the U.S. President is not worth paying U.S. taxes.

[BlueJac]

3. A win is a win.........ask Hillary

[FARAFIELD]

4. ALSO NICE TRY USING OLD "PROJECTIONS" but.......

SINCE YOU BROUGHT IT UP
HE UNDER PREDICTED LOUISIANA BY 3, NEBRASKA BY 8, VIRGIN ISLANDS BY 30(YES THIRTY), WASHINGTON BY 8, mAINE HE ACTUALLY PICKED HILLARY TO WIN BUT SHE DIDNT, AND THE LIST GOES ON AND ON.
BY THE WAY HE PREDICTED HE WOULD LOSE OHIO BY 7 (IT WAS 10), TEXAS BY 4 (ON THE MONEY) PA BY 5 (IT WAS 9)
next time you go off spouting 'stats" give it some context at least. The truth is he has only missed once (when he predicted Hill to win Maine) and he has underpredicted himself many times. With all the outperforming hes done, he can borrow a few points.

[bluestateguy]

5. 2,264 is a bigger number than 2,257

And it appears that he will also win more total delegates too. All Hillary is doing now is trading baskets with Obama, while he gets closer to 2025.

[rodeodance]

12. that magic number is elusive to obama. He will not get it.

[FARAFIELD]

26. Elusive, he is moving up on it

He gets 5 (possibly 6 today) plus he got three more supers Today. Remember for every 1 delegate (pledged or super) he gets she needs to get three so one a day he nets 3 she needs to 9. plus he got three supers today to zero for her. so he nets 6 today while she needed to net 18. The point her is that he is closer than you think and actually better organized. IF she won 70% of the vote from today (AND THEY JUST SPLIT The rest of the SUPERS) he would still only need 4 votes. So your thoughts about the number being elusive are rubbish. Remember for every margin under 70 she is, she needs to make it up. So that means NOW she has to win every remaining state by 72.3% and split the supers JUST To keep him within four of the NUMBER. Now if you have some math that will back up your
"number is elusive" thingy then please let us know.

[Eagle_Eye]

6. Hillary 49.9% . Obama 50.1% . It is not even up, Obama is in the lead by a WIDE margin

Obama's seven vote victory over Hillary sure shows how far ahead he is.

This is not even close.

Hillary should fold her tent and go home. She lost by such a wide margin, she should just resign her Senate seat and move to Frostbite Falls, Minnesota.

[FARAFIELD]

7. she should really

She proved again how lame her math is. She loses by seven votes, but isnt even organized in the caucus enough to prevent him from winning the SUPERS and Pledged, he will probably be a 6-3 delegate winner. Shows how damn smart he is and how organized he is and how crappy and insignificant she feels every place that votes is. If you cant get behind a guy who can win by seven votes and end up with a NET +3 of delegates, you ought to head to frostbite falls. Another state that "doesnt count" for Hillary. (at least until we get to Puerto Rico then THEY Will count I bet"

[AZ Criminal JD]

17. Guam has only four votes. You math is off.

[FARAFIELD]

31. Damn know your facts MAN its 9 delegates today

They also ELECTED the supers today. For the other 5. Sheesh. Why even comment if you dont know what you are talking about.

[FrenchieCat]

8. It's not how close she's is or is not winning, it is how she's getting close that

is her problem now.

[zabet]

27. Damn.

I thought you said you were leaving DU. Way to disappoint. x(

[anticat]

48. Wow. You just like blew my mind.

So deep, yet so stupid.

[FrenchieCat]

56. Well since you've been tomstoned already, guess your mind is the one gone!

[berni_mccoy]

57. She was? Whoa. Awwwwwkwaaaaard!

[rodeodance]

9. ha ha

[Austinitis]

10. Guam was a pretty huge embarassment for Obama.

But his supporters shouldn't worry about him. He seems to be getting used to being embarrassed now days.

[Blondiegrrl]

21. At least he doesn't lie about being under sniper fire.

Obama's worst sin was forgiving his loud-mouthed pastor and giving him a second chance when he should have kicked him to the curb. Hardly compares to the crap that Hillary is slinging.

[FARAFIELD]

34. IF you call a NET 3 an embarrasment then Ill take it.

Hillary WON Texas and got less return for that. Think about that tonight.

[TBF]

52. Really? 31-15 over Clinton so far overall. Those are great stats if you ask me.

[PseudoIntellect]

53. The last 2 months have been an embarrassment for Hillary Clinton.

She has had the former president, the GOP, and the entire media on her side, and she has netted 0 delegates, even with wins in the TX, OH, and PA primaries.

A virtual tie in a territory that was destined to split 2-2 anyway isn't too bad, especially when you're getting more of the superdelegate endorsements in the place and making it even harder for the underdog to get nominated.

[grantcart]

11. all of the threads by both Obama and Clinton sides on Guam are ridiculous

Its a fun interlude but has no significance

[Aloha Spirit]

13. But... Obama got 50% of the Catholic vote... that's a huge demographic shift!

[grantcart]

28. yes but if Cousin Bertha and her friends and the apostalic choir at the Pentacostal Catholic Union

decide to move to the Reformed Protestant Rock of Ages Assembly then the Catholic percentage will be only 42%

[FARAFIELD]

16. you consider a NET 3 DELEGATE WIN insignificant.?

She only netted 16 from that whole six weeks work in PA, and she hands back 3 today? thats not trivial. He worked the caucuses which she ignored, thats significant as well.

[AZ Criminal JD]

19. Guam only has four votes.

The result can only be 4-0, 3-1 or 2-2. None of those are a net of three.

[Aloha Spirit]

20. 9 votes, thanks.

[grantcart]

23. 4 pledged delegates welcome

[9119495]

25. You forgot to add the supers for Guam. The total is 9.

[grantcart]

30. the supers had nothing to do with the election today.

[FARAFIELD]

37. ACTUALLY THEY DID, the supers were voted on today as well.

Dang I cannot believe the ignorance. ANyhoo. No wonder Hillary can win texas by 4 and still lose in DELEGATES, they dont even know the totals. When hillary goes down, she is going to look back on the caucus season and realize she got her ass handed to her. Obviously her people are worried about delegate splits and what not and dont even care that supers are being voted on as well. Dang no wonder they are in the tank.

[anticat]

46. Lujan, a newly elcted super has said she will vote for the winner of Guam.....

so there is a net 1 super for the winner of Guam.

Fortunately, a recount will show Hillary is the winner.

[PseudoIntellect]

54. Some endorsed ultimately based on who won the popular vote today, though.

[FARAFIELD]

35. MATH DUDE THE SUPERS ARE PICKED TODAY AS WELL

total of 9 delegates, get it right.

[dbmk]

43. Wrong

Its 8 ½-delegates. It can be 4-0, 3.5-0.5, 3-1, 2.5-1.5, 2-2. So yeah, there is a +3 result in there. But thats beside the point.

As the one you comment on is counting the supers elected today as well. And they seem to have fallen out +3 for Obama.

[grantcart]

22. Pledged delegates decided today 2-2

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/guam-primary-results-and-la-01la-06.html

[DerekJ]

14. Hehehehe. Who is nitpicking now?!!

[jefferson_dem]

15. What a razor thin victory. To imagine that if a family of four had voted for her instead of him...

she would have won the state. Shades of FL 2000, only with much much smaller stakes.

[FARAFIELD]

18. True, thats why every vote counts

The threshold in GUAM was something like 56+% so even had SHE won with 56% they still would have split the pledged (2 apiece) the crappy part for her was that her slate for state chair and vice chair went down and the other slate of supers picked are apt to go to OBAMA. Meaning she lost by seven but it wouldnt have mattered.

[sunonmars]

24. Officials say recount is imminent on missing and spoiled ballots

Officials say recount is imminent
Pacific News Center Staff Reporter 04.MAY.08
9:30 a.m. Guam – Herbie Perez, Democrat Party Nominating Committee Chairperson, says officials will look over the large amount of “spoiled” ballots in the coming days. At issue is small margin of victory for Senator Barack Obama. He beat his rival Senator Hillary Clinton by 7 votes, but well over 500 ballots were deemed invalid during the tabulation process. Perez says she will not certify the results because the Committee needs to ensure all were properly identified as “spoiled.” She says officials from the Party and representatives from both candidates will meet probably Monday or Tuesday to address that issue.

She is also looking into missing ballots. In total, over 8,100 were printed in response to reports of shortages at precinct sites. But when the final vote count was given, only a little over 4.500 ballots were used.

[rodeodance]

33. thanks. given that close count--not surprizing

[goclark]

40. Huum ~ here we go again

I had a feeling when Obama was leading by such a big margin that something was going to make his win narrow.

Same old smoke and mirrors all the way over there.

Huum :puke:

[sunnystarr]

32. That prediction was back in February lol

Ya think Obama has had a few attacks since then? Maybe? lol

[rodeodance]

36. did he leave it stand as such? or is there a more recent on? Link?

[FARAFIELD]

38. If he did he didnt release it BUT

Its been pretty good, especially if you look at the PLEDGED delegate total, given that vote totals are linked its surprising that his people (I doubt he actually did it) did such a good job.

[anticat]

45. Exactly. He thought no one would attack him.... just wait til the GOP gets ahold of

him.... he thought he was above it all.... yeah right.

[bigtree]

39. looks like the rest of the nation

I've never seen a trailing candidate this strong at this point in the primary contest. I wouldn't be surprised to see this number change, perhaps swinging the other way (perhaps not).

[Window]

41. ..

[dbmk]

44. on 4500 votes fcs.

1% or 11% is rather unimportant in terms of pledged delegates. And since its only once district with 4 votes, with no polling, I am betting they didn't spend much more on it than "I think we take it, but not enough for a 2,5-1,5 split. Putting it down for us with..hmm...no clue....11..More than that and it splits 1 for us. Less than that, within a 22 points of +11, is all the same...11 it is.". Bingo, Guam line filled out.

None had a clue today even. Why should they have had it 2+ months ago? We are talking 250 voters or so that could move it from +0.2 to +11 by switching sides.

All in all they ended up with the predicted number of delegates. And so far as winners - as predicted.

[rug]

49. This shows how ludicrous a method the caucus is in selecting a candidate.

[Duke Newcombe]

50. Funny that it only got "ridiculous" during this primary cycle, though... eom

Duke

[mistertrickster]

58. Caucus = cheaper than a primary, unable to be hacked, and harder for Repukes to crossover for

mischief.

Yeah, totally sucks, doesn't it.