Obama losesFlorida and Ohio by significant margins. Hillary wins by significant margins.

[aquarius dawning]

In Florida, recent polling data figured into the average of all real clear politics polling data gives Hillary a 1.7 point lead over McCain. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_clinton-417.html">Hillary ahead of McCain in Florida by 1.7 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html">Mccain beats Obama by 9.0 points in florida. Hillary does better than Obama in Florida by 10.7 points. Who is unelectable again?

In Ohio, recent polling data figured into the average of all RCP polling data has http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html">McCain beating Obama by 3.4 points in the Buckeye state.

The same data has http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_clinton-399.html">Hillary beating McCain in Ohio by 5.4 points Hillary does better in Ohio by 8.8 points. Ever heard the saying "As Ohio goes, so goes the nation"? Who is unelectable again?

OK, so that's 47 electoral votes in critically important swing states that Hillary brings to the table. That's 47 electoral votes in critically important swing states that Obama can't bring to the table. 47 electoral votes from two states that are the electoral equivalent to Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Mississippi, and South Dakota. Worse yet, not even one of those states went to Kerry in 2004. In 2000, Gore won New Mexico by 366 votes. Of the other 5 states mentioned, he didn't even come close to winning. I'll say once more what I've been saying all along, Obama is going to cost us the Presidency and a couple of Supreme Court nominations which means he's going to cost us Roe V Wade. Congratulations. I hope whatever inner demons you're trying to appease with this are finally satisfied. Bravo. :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause:

[Vinca]

1. Once again, until someone is actually running against McCain,

the polls are meaningless. You can't assume Hillary would make out any better than Obama once the 527s gear up and Murdock releases his "dossier." No one knows what will happen. It's highly likely any Democrat will win overall, especially when the sheeple realize McCain plans to let them buy their own health insurance (average $12,000 a pop for a small family).

[roguevalley]

82. hillary still loses. stuff doesn't count until they actually take on McCain.

[Maribelle]

2. Obama is in big trouble.

With 174,405 democratic votes, the AOL straw poll has terrible news for Obama this morning: Hillary at 65% to O's 35%

Her lead in every single state is nothing short of spectacular.

75% to 25% in West Virginia
58% to 42% in Oregon
64% to 36% in North Carolina
72% to 28% in Kentucky
64% to 36% in Indiana
59% to 41% in South Dakota


74% to 26% in Florida
63% to 37% in Michigan
63% to 37% in California
71% to 29% in Ohio
69% to 31% in Pennsylvania

Even in his home state: Hillary is 54% to O's 46% in Illinois

[bowens43]

6. No , he isn't.

He is the nominee. He kicked hillarys ass up one side of the country and back down the other. Hillary is in trouble. Not only will she never be president, she has destroyed any hope that she may have had of continuing her political career.

[aquarius dawning]

9. He's the one looking like he's taken the ass kicking.

[Maribelle]

17. 'He is the nominee'?? -Obama cannot win. He can only be 'selected' by the super-delegates.

Try truth.

[Cheap_Trick]

39. maybe you should try some of that thing called truth yourself

hillary has lost. deal with it. maybe some zoloft or something will take that bitter sting of defeat off....

[JoFerret]

31. Do you think Obama can win Florida in the GE?

And Ohio?

If so, what gives rise to your thinking? On what is it based.

[aasleka]

15. Does anyone under 65 still use aol?

[Maribelle]

Ha ha ha - bash everything and anything that shows support for Hillary.

I truly have pity for the Hillary haters.

[aquarius dawning]

22. Information only matters when it supports Obama and their case for him you see.

Everything else isn't worth mentioning.

[aquarius dawning]

23. the elderly are probably the single biggest voting block in the country.

go ahead and laugh at them.

[BklnDem75]

33. LOL!!!

The only time I know it's over for a candidate is when they point to AOL polls to prove they're still in it.

[aquarius dawning]

34. Well go ahead and look at the RCP polls in the OP then. that's what this thread is about actually.

[Th1onein]

50. AOL poll?

You're using an AOL POLL?

Hahahahaha!

[here_is_to_hope]

59. Wow, you are posting something from an AOL poll?

It says she will take Oregon?
I got some reality for you, she isnt much loved here in Oregon, no way, no how.
Obama by 15 or I buy ya lunch.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

60. Obama wins 31 states, Hillary wins 15

I bet the Super Delegates can count.

[nichomachus]

64. Drink up

[Butch350]

66. 64. Drink up

Yeah i remember Jonestown - wsn't some of your family members in that group?

[nichomachus]

67. I know you are but what am I?

Go do your homework . . . you don't want to stay back in middle school again.

[neverforget]

80. You cite an AOL online poll? Are you serious? ANYONE can vote

in that poll and it's hardly scientific.

[bowens43]

3. Not this shit again

talking about electoral votes when we don't even have a nominee is ridiculous.

[aquarius dawning]

16. Like hell. This is exactly the conversation we need to be having right now.

More to the point, this is exactly the conversation those super delegates need to be having right now.

[Arkansas Granny]

62. Talking about electoral votes now is very valid. We need the Democratic

nominee to be the candidate who has the best opportunity to beat McCain in the GE. According to the poll numbers I've looked at, that candidate is Hillary Clinton.

When you are discussing the GE, it doesn't matter how many states a candidate won during the primaries. In the Democratic primaries there will be a Democratic winner, regardless whether or not Democrats can take that state from Republicans in the fall. For example, Obama had a strong win in Alabama and Hillary had a strong win in Oklahoma. Do you really expect that Democrats will take either or those states in the GE? We have got to start considering which candidate can win which states in the GE, and their electoral college numbers and we have to think about it before we wind up with a nominee that can't bring in the electoral votes.

[Exilednight]

4. I thought you said that Hillary wins by signifigant margins. 1.7 is signifigant? That's well .....

within the MOE and 5.4 is right on cusp of the MOE. In fact, one of the polls has Hillary losing to McCain in Ohio by 5 points and another has McCain winning Florida by 4 points.

[Maribelle]

5. Ha ha ha - If Hillary wins by 1 vote it will be significant to Obama.

[bowens43]

8. give it up, hillary is through. Finished. Over. Done. etc

[aquarius dawning]

11. I wonder how you manage to write when you're incapable of reading.

[Exilednight]

10. What? What the hell are you talking about? This is the GE we're talking about.......

it's either Obama or McCain. Hillary won't even be in the race.

[aquarius dawning]

7. It's signifcant considering she was losing to him in Florida by 0.3 points last week

[Exilednight]

12. Wow, a 2 point bump. Still well within the MOE. n/t

[aquarius dawning]

13. He's going to cost us thePresidency, the supreme court, and Roe V Wade.

Take your fingers out of your ears and open your eyes. He can't fucking win in the battleground states.

[Exilednight]

18. And what proof do you have of that? Was the GE run and I'm not aware of it? n/t

[aquarius dawning]

20. Information only matters when it supports your case for Obama, is that it?

Start preparing your excuses again.

[Exilednight]

27. No, I just don't buy into GE polls when the primary isn't even finished yet. n/t

[midnight]

14. I appreciate you explaining this information about Florida and

Ohio. Those two states were the lynch pins in stealing the election in the last two presidential elections. Do we have any Idea what sates are being set up now to steal the election?

[aquarius dawning]

19. With Bush we lost Fla and Oh illegitimately. With Obama, we lose them legitimately. the end result

will be the same. With Hillary, we are pretty much guaranteed Ohio and we have a good chance in Florida.

[JoFerret]

29. I cannot see Obama winning Florida and Ohio

in the GE.

I can't imagine the Obama campaign can either.

[jefferson_dem]

21. Shame I won't have a chance to say I told you so regarding Hillary's GE electability...

since she will be back to her "Junior Senator from NY" position by then.

[iamthebandfanman]

24. Good for her! ...

to bad she didnt win the nomination eh ?

[aquarius dawning]

36. a bit premature for high fives and back slapping, don't you think?

[davidpdx]

25. Another Obama free fall thread

What a huge surprise!

Oh wait...the only one that can save us now is...is....wait for it..wait for it...

























Hillary W.

[AllentownJake]

26. How does this bring her

Closer to 2025 Delegates? She started the primaries with huge leads in every state as well. She's a person that loses support. Does not gain it.

[aquarius dawning]

30. here's a hint, just because you keep saying and thinking something

that doesn't make it true. She's gaining support. Obama is the one sliding. what's worse, he's sliding where it hurts the most, int he swing sates.

[AllentownJake]

83. Hmm 6 months ago

Before one vote was cast Hillary was winning in virtually every state. Now not so much. Give the Rethugs 6 months to talk about her "35 years of experience" and we'll see how she does...btw Bill O'Reilley and Sean Hannity aren't going to be your friends if your the nominee. Just a hint.

[CreekDog]

28. Then she should get to those states right now and start campaigning for him

it would probably help.

as for the nomination, well, it's a little late...had she run a decent campaign she could've been the nominee (or at least have better than the small chance of being the nominee she has now).

[aquarius dawning]

32. She isn't going to quit. You should accept that.

This will go to the convention and to the super delegates and to a brokered nomination.

[CreekDog]

38. then why have primaries and caucuses at all?

[Lyric]

40. Primaries and caucuses are usually fine.

Because *usually*, we all end up behind the clear front-runner in the beginning, and it never goes this far.

On the rare, rare, RARE occasion that it doesn't work out that way (like this one), then all that the primaries and caucuses can tell us is who supported whom at the time the votes were cast, and that one candidate might have a slim lead over the other--but not enough to take the nomination outright.

In those cases, the superdelegates have a responsibility to choose the candidate who is the most likely to win the general election. Therefore, looking at polls pitting each of our candidates against the Repuke candidate in key battleground states becomes extremely important.

If Obama is polling badly against McCain in states like Florida and Ohio, then his ability to win the general election is called into serious question. Surely even the most devoted Obama supporters can see the reality there? Sometimes I wonder if DU has the mistaken impression that squeaking out a win in the primary actually matters worth a damn. It doesn't. Getting the left wing of the nation to support you is a HELL of a lot easier than getting those middle-of-the-road centrist Americans to do so.

Winning the primary gains Obama supporters nothing but shallow gloating for a few months, because he's losing to McCain in the battleground states and he can't connect with the working class folks who make up the biggest chunk of our base. This is not a Clinton-spun fantasy, this is reality.

Speaking of reality--all I ever hear is that I need to "deal with it". Well guess what? So do you.

[CreekDog]

43. that's all reasonable, except for Florida and Ohio

shouldn't supers look at how both candidates do in ALL states?

when you say otherwise, it feeds a perception that Hillary folks only point to states where she is doing better than Obama. we need 270 electoral votes, our priorities are keeping blue states blue, turning purple states blue and picking off whatever red states have some potential.

[aquarius dawning]

46. Missouri is a critical bellwether state. McCain beats Obama in Missouri too.

Despite hisprimary victory, Hillary beats McCain in Missouri.
Check it out: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May04.html

Obama is losing in the two principle bellwether states, Missouri and Ohio. Hillary is winning these states. Obama is going to lose despite your best excuses.

[CreekDog]

47. i said count all states

got a problem with that?

what excuse did i make?

ass-inine.

[aquarius dawning]

53. all states except Michigan and Florida you mean.

[CreekDog]

57. yes, count them too although people were told those votes would not count

so it's not clear cut how to do it.

[RainDog]

51. Dean stated that this should not go to convention

because the democrats need time to heal from this primary in order to unite behind a candidate. He and other party leaders have called for this to be OVER by June.

As soon as the primaries are over, the super delegates will break the tie - that's my prediction.

I suppose we all will see what happens. I think it will be a sad day for the democrats if Hillary is the nominee.

[LittleClarkie]

35. It's not hard to win when you're the only one on the ballot

And I rather like that Obama seems to follow the 50 state strategy while Hillary appears not to.

Polls also, you may remember, had Hillary winning the primaries. Who was supposed to be the front runner again? But who won state after state as soon as he started campaigning there, or closed the gap more than anyone thought he could?

If she's so hot, why hasn't she been able to pull away from him?

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, polling this far out from the general, when Obama hasn't really had a chance to go after McCain since he's still involved in a fight with Hillary, don't really faze me. If he's still behind when he's been campaigning for the general against McCain himself, then come talk to me.

Because a few months ago, Obama wasn't even supposed to be where he is now. Hillary was supposed to be the front runner.

If she can't beat Obama, how will she beat McCain.

[aquarius dawning]

37. They were both on the "ballots" in florida and Ohio. That doesn't even make sense

You keep making excuses for Obama. I'll be here to throw them back in your face come Novemeber.

[RainDog]

54. Many Floridians didn't even bother to vote

because they knew their state party had made their primary worthless.

so calling Florida's election anywhere near representative is a joke. However, if Florida's Democratic Committee would like to pay for an actual primary, then Florida would matter. Otherwise, it's just a talking point.

[aquarius dawning]

55. regardless, they all have a voice in the telephone polls and they seem to suggest that BO will lose

strongly suggest. and hillary wins. looks to me like they're trying to tell you something.

[RainDog]

68. telephone polls?

what are the demographics for those who use land lines, I wonder? Would those telephone polls include the younger as well as the more affluent and better educated voters who generally count as Obama supporters across the states? Or would that tend to under-represent this voting block?

seems I recall the issue of the skewering of telephone polls way back in 2006. When democrats regained the legislative majority.

[aquarius dawning]

73. The polls were accurate in Pennsylvania despite that very argument.

[RainDog]

75. isn't that tautology?

Clinton won the blue collar, job hurting sector... the same sector that would most likely answer such a poll?

[aquarius dawning]

77. I don't think so. Everyone said that the cell phone using youth votes would be underrepresented

andwould result in a Obama win in PA. It didn't happen. It didn't happen in Ohio either and I heard th same arguments back then. I think it's far more likely that relatively conservative southern states have an issue with barack obama and it's reflected in these polls.

[Lyric]

41. Considering how badly Obama is losing to McCain in the polls

and how Hillary is ahead of McCain, I feel perfectly justified saying that even if every Obama supporter in Florida had turned out for the primary, Hillary STILL would have won it. She's obviously a lot more popular there than he is.

[RainDog]

69. Obama is NOT losing to McCain in the polls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May04.html

Obama is ahead of McCain in the polls. And this is without him even being the announced democratic candidate.

[aquarius dawning]

74. He beats him by 1 EV there. Hillary wins by 55 EVs from the same polls.

and Obama still loses Florida, Missouri, and Ohio which, based on the relevence of those states in previous elections, strongly suggests that Obama is going to lose in November if the super delegates don't intervene and prevent this train wreck.

[totodeinhere]

42. We can't trust these polls. They are often very inaccurate. And...

any poll this far out from the general election is meaningless. Hello President Dukakis? The polls had him up 18 points over Papa Bush in September of 1988.

[dcindian]

44. Hillary is losing no matter what you wish would happen this is a fact.

Democrats around the country continue to tell Hillary NO!

It is not about one state or one district or the super delegates its about the people and the people have spoken.

[TheDudeAbides]

45. Superdelegates will look at this; better to have a real election there

because Obama would close this gap if he had time to campaign in Florida and Michigan.
Otherwise, the Superdelegates will look at these polls and be forced to question
Obama's chances of winning the GE in these states.

We need new, fair elections in Florida and Michigan.
Please call the DNC and request this (both Obama *and* Clinton supporters).

[Hepburn]

48. Another day, another bullshit post from a Kool Aid soaked Hillbot.

Think about where we are, OK? No one is running against McGrandpa ~~ thanks to HilLAIRy and her selfish bullshit about not getting out of a race she cannot win.

Next time, think things through, OK?

[TheDudeAbides]

49. Pot / Kettle ----- n/t necessary --- the Dude is out

[aquarius dawning]

52. OMG, she's so selfish because she won't just quit for Obama. What a crock of shit.

you're about ridiculous.

[cjsmom44]

56. RE: OH PLEASE

Everyone, including the superdelegates knows that

you cannot judge the general election polls now....

Trust me...supers are looking at these general election polls....

You are drinking WAY too much Hillary Punch.... :beer:

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

58. Blah blah blah blah.

Delegates or STFU.

[aquarius dawning]

79. superdelegates

or STFU

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

84. Ya, not doing so well in that metric either, are ya? n/t

[mapatriot]

61. This is not constructive......

I would have no problem voting for Hillary in the GE. But this is NOT the election. Hillary has LOST the Democratic Primary. Obama is AHEAD and Hillary can't possibly catch him. A mathematical impossibility. He's ahead in states, in the popular vote, in delegates and, in a few days, he'll be ahead in super-delegates. I expect Hillary to concede by the end of this week.

[cd3dem]

63. the state delegates may now vote for Hillary at the convention... they too want to win the GE!

[mapatriot]

65. Uhh.....

did you miss the point? This isn't the GE!! It's six months before the GE and EVERY delegate understands that. Obama will chew up McSame and spit him out! NO delegate pledged to Obama will switch to Hillary UNLESS this goes through several deadlocked ballots at the convention and that WILL NOT happen.

[localroger]

70. And silly crap like this is why she's LOSING

This isn't Calvinball. You don't get to pick the rules that favor whatever just happened to you. The reason Obama is handing Clinton her butt is that he understood the primary and he campaigned it properly, while she campaigned as if it was the GE not apparently understanding that her husband's strategy of parsing and dividing and campaigning only to swing voters simply doesn't work in a proportional representation situation. She did not even know how the primary was conducted in Texas, one of the critical states where she actually did campaign.

Meanwhile, Obama organized, fought, fought, and organized, understanding that a few delegates here and there even from states you ultimately lose matter in the primary, and that extra delegates from states you are certain to win are also useful. He understood and played to the rules -- rules everyone, including Clinton, knew going in.

So now Hillary has thrown away a position of inconceivable advantage -- she had the name recognition and the relative goodwill from the contrast between GWB and her husband, a bunch of pre-endorsements -- and she LOST ANYWAY. That failure is so fundamental and profound that, knowing nothing else about the two candidates, it would be enough to cast grave doubt on Clinton's suitability for high office.

And far from breaking away from the pledged delegate totals to stage a coup, superdelegates are coming out for Obama in a steady trickle, as they see this contrast. Obama saw the game, played the game, won the game. Clinton failed to see the game, played it incorrectly, and lost. Why would we expect her to perform better than him in the GE, again?

[Thickasabrick]

71. That was a wonderful summation - thank you. nt

[newmajority]

72. Anyone counting Florida as a "must win state" in the General Election is a fucking fool

In case you didn't notice in 2000, that state is corrupt to the core. And yes, the Bush Crime Family is still very much in the picture, as they have been since the late 50's.

Florida will be stolen for McCain, you can take that to the bank. I doubt that even massive turnout would be enough to stop it in that state, because they're probably using the ethnic cleansing software again. And if you can't vote when you get to the polls, it doesn't matter how many friends (who also can't vote) you bring with you.

[Neshanic]

76. Who needs those states? Add New Jersey and some others too.

He can win because he looks cool emerging from a "change-powered Tahoe".

[aquarius dawning]

78. swing states? We don't need no stinking swing states.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

81. You seem bitter, Neshanic. nt