Clinton Camp: Obama Document Predicted Indiana Victory, Does That Still Stand?

[NJSecularist]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/clinton-camp-obama-docume_n_100027.html

Back in February, the Obama camp mistakenly released a spreadsheet detailing their anticipated margins of victory (and defeat) in all upcoming primaries. With only days to go until Indiana, the Clinton camp is publicly musing whether Obama stands by his projection to win Indiana by seven points. The memo is below.

Spreadsheet: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html

To: Interested Parties

From: The Clinton Campaign
Date: May 3, 2008
RE: Why Did the Obama Campaign Predict Victory in Indiana? Does That Prediction Still Stand?

Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.

Tellingly, that spreadsheet predicted an Obama victory in Indiana by 7 points, as well as an Obama victory in North Carolina.

Does the Obama campaign still stand by that prediction? If not, why not, and what has happened?

It is easy to see why the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana. Senator Obama has won each of the primaries in the states that border Illinois - Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, and 25% of Hoosiers get their television from Illinois stations - a huge advantage for Senator Obama. Indiana's primary is open, and Senator Obama has tended to do better in those contests.

The Obama campaign has also dramatically outspent Senator Clinton in Indiana by more than $2.4 million -- $5.6m - $3.2m and has even gone up on broadcast television in the very expensive Chicago media market.

Despite Senator Obama's advantages and his prediction of victory, we have worked hard in Indiana to do as well as we can and anticipate a close finish.

In North Carolina, Tuesday's other contest, Senator Obama enjoyed a lead of over 20 points in public polls throughout this year and outspent us there on TV by $1.3m -- $4.9 - $3.5. Senator Clinton has been working hard to narrow that 20 point gap.

The Clinton campaign is closing on the big challenges and questions facing American families - who is on your side and who is best able to fight for working and middle class people on Day One in the White House?

Is the Obama campaign going to stick by their projections? Or are they going to spin their way out of an Indiana win and say they didn't expect to win the state?

[VolcanoJen]

1. Hillary's camp is counting on Operation Chaos in Indiana.

Hillary's camp is also apparently run by twelve year-olds.

[Vinca]

2. Who really cares? I'm sure the Clinton campaign had internal

documents that showed she would be the candidate after Super Tuesday. In fact, they must have since they had no plan at all for contests after Super Tuesday.

[NJSecularist]

3. Have they been released?

Do you have any evidence of these memos? Or are they just your wishful thinking?

[tabatha]

8. Hillary stated that it would all be over by Super Tuesday.

How right was that?

[NJSecularist]

11. She said that in December.

Do you have any memos of her campaign saying such after Iowa?

[RaleighNCDUer]

22. Of course not.

After Iowa she was too PANICKED to sit down and write memos.

[texas_indy]

10. Didn't have to have documents since she stated it ON TV in an interview. last December!

[Vinca]

14. You really need to get a life for yourself.

Obsessing over internal projections in a campaign that ebb and flows is just silly.

[NJSecularist]

17. Says the cult...err group that obssesses over a comment by Hillary over Iran.

You and your flock get a life.

[Vinca]

20. "Obliterate" was a forceful statement ON TAPE.

It's not like we had to go looking for it. You like the fact your candidate made such a remark? It could have come out of Shrub's mouth. Hillary is an intelligent woman and there's no reason for her to try to act as if she has the biggest balls among the candidates.

[NJSecularist]

24. What is Obama going to do if such a scenario happens?

Is he going to sit back and just let it happen? :crazy: :crazy:

No, he will likely do the same thing that Hillary proposes. Yet she had the balls to say it.

The thing that annoys me most about the netroots and their naivety is that they simply believe that the Iranian governor is innocent and being picked on.

[Vinca]

29. Let's see. Shall we "obliterate" and kill every living thing or, perhaps,

use surgical missile strikes to take out only the bad guys? Hillary evokes images of Hiroshima. I hope she didn't intend to say that, but I suppose it would look like her testosterone level had dropped if she retracted it.

[gal]

21. Your the one that started a thread to try to start something.

Now that someone has given you something back you want to tell others to get a life?

[dionysus]

34. oooh shillbot's a little touchy, eh?

:rofl:

[speedoo]

16. So, you're saying the Clintonites did not think it would be over on Super Tuesday?

If that's what you're saying, explain their apparant lack of Plan B. Particularly their failure to effectively compete in all the caucus states. And their financial mismanagement.

[NJSecularist]

19. The frontrunners at the start always plan for their races to be over by Super Tuesday.

Gore did. Kerry did.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

18. She said it on national television.

:wtf:


ABC w/ Staphylococcus:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saBU6ux0hsQ

[berni_mccoy]

4. For a Two Month Advanced Prediction, they have it pretty close. They had Hillary in PA by 5

Off by only 4 points there. Obama did better than expected in Texas and they only predicted an 8 point spread in NC. It looks pretty accurate.

Furthermore, this was before the many kitchen sinks that Clinton has thrown at Obama. Given the damage he's taken, it's extremely accurate.

[oviedodem]

5. Like they don't have predictions in theirs what f****g jokers they are.

[d00mzday]

6. Win Some Lose Some

Win Some Lose Some, but Hillary sure has lost alot of them.

ty 4 correction

[tabatha]

12. "lose some"

loose pronounced the same as in moose

[dchill]

7. "Does That Still Stand?"

Who knows? What on earth is your point? Does HRC's campaign stand by anything?

[BeyondGeography]

9. The same document said she'd lose Virginia by 2 points

instead of 29. :boring:

[mdmc]

13. I so want this to be over

but I wouldn't mind seeing Hillary Clinton stay the course a little longer.

[NotThisTime]

If this is all the Clinton campaign can come up with,their in trouble. They said they'd be DONE 2/4

[babylonsister]

15. Sorry, but I can't take any of your posts seriesle. You were supposedly

an Obama supporter, and now you're a raving Clinton supporter, with all the vitriol that comes with that. (There are some honest, nice Clinton supporters; this is not one of them.) You just aren't 'real' to me. You have no standards, so I have a hard time even reading anything you write anymore.

Maybe 'ignore' should be my friend in this instance. :hi:

[MannyGoldstein]

23. Obama Has Won The Nomination

Let's all work to get the Republicans out of the WH in November.

[NJSecularist]

25. No, he has not won the nomination.

Until he wins 2024 pledged delegates, he has not won anything yet.

[Avalux]

27. 275.

That's all he needs. Unless there's a mass exodus of SDs to Hillary, she cannot win. THAT is not going to happen.

[NJSecularist]

28. So Obama will get the nomination through backroom deals?

By that same token, Hillary could win the nomination the same way.

[Avalux]

30. Oh please; you can't be that dense.

:eyes:

[NJSecularist]

31. Fact: Obama, if he wins the nomination, will have won it through backroom deals. n/t

[MercutioATC]

26. I expect Clinton to take Indiana by 5.

That's a huge strategic win for Obama.

Any race with significant delegates that he doesn't lose by a landslide is essentially a win due to his lead and the shrinking pool of remaining pledged delegates.

[mnotme]

32. Have you read the spreadsheet?

It has a number of worst case and best case projections.

And according to the spreadsheet the assumed projection after Guam was suppose to be: 1441 obama vs 1382 clinton.
The real score is 1492 obama vs 1334 for clinton (CNN.com)

So the "prediction" have proved to be quite conservative.

[shadowknows69]

33. Who cares?

if he does lose it will probably be by single digits under 5 and it still won't give Clinton enough to win the nom with. Petty non-issue BS.

[NJSecularist]

35. Coming from the cult that cares about everything little "mistake" Hillary makes...

this is ironic. And laughable.

[andym]

36. Political predictions more than a few days out are like long-range weather forecasts

Political predictions more than a few days out are really like long-range weather forecasts or possibly like the Farmer's Almanac's weather forecasts. They may sometimes be right, but it's usually a matter of luck. Polling, especially more than a few days from an election is just not a reliable guide into how the thoughts of the American voter will translate into votes. Too many things (events) can change at a moment's notice and people are fickle. That's why it is nearly impossible to predict what will happen in the General Election. For example, Jimmy Carter was leading Ford by 33% in the polls in 1976 after the convention but only won by 2%.

Of course, your post really deals with propaganda/spin. The prevailing media spin based on the post Pennsylvania polling results is that Clinton will win IN. However, to be fair, it's only now (about 3 days before the election) that the polling has even a chance of being accurate. The Obama's campaign's predictions from February, the Clinton's, and really anyone's predictions from 3 months ago are just not relevant, and would not be taken seriously by anyone except for spin purposes.