MSNBC: Polls: Obama falters with working-class whites (Clinton favored by 39 percentage points)

[Amerigo Vespucci]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24447399/

updated 5:34 a.m. PT, Sun., May. 4, 2008

WASHINGTON - Barack Obama's problem winning votes from working-class whites is showing no sign of going away, and their impression of him is getting worse.

Those are ominous signals as he hopes for strong performances in the coming week in Indiana and North Carolina primaries that would derail the candidacy of Hillary Rodham Clinton, his rival for the Democratic presidential nomination. Those contests come as his candidacy has been rocked by renewed attention to his volatile former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and by his defeat in last month's Pennsylvania primary.

In an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll in April, 53 percent of whites who have not completed college viewed Obama unfavorably, up a dozen percentage points from November. During that period, the numbers viewing Clinton and Republican candidate John McCain negatively have stayed about even.

The April poll — conducted before the Pennsylvania contest — also showed an overwhelming preference for Clinton over Obama among working-class whites. They favored her over him by 39 percentage points, compared to a 10-point Obama lead among white college graduates. Obama also did worse than Clinton among those less-educated voters when matched up against Republican candidate John McCain.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. Which he'll get back in the GE.

:shrug:

[JoFerret]

13. How will that happen?

exactly?

[indimuse]

15. no.....

....

[jbm]

21. that's not how it works..

The vast majority of general election voters are not straight ticket people. Individuals may label themselves as Dems or Repubs, but their voting history tends to be more flexible.

It's impossible to predict an election turnout, in part because the circumstances are never static, but there are trends that are fairly reliable. Vote counters may not get much info from a poll about who people are planning on voting for, but they can make fairly accurate predictions based on past trends, and other available info.

That's why demographics are so important, and why Obama should be concerned. I know people have come after me before for discounting the young vote, and I hope they do turn out, but traditionally they're not reliable. The African American vote may stay home if it's Hillary, but they are less likely to vote Republican. I'm not sure what the well educated liberals would do, but I suspect they'd vote for the Democratic candidate, even if it wasn't their first choice.

The blue collar people like to identify with their candidate though. Years of vote counting in my state has taught me that they trend Dem if both candidates seem like someone that could be a political version of themselves. But if the candidate seems 'different' somehow, they'll switch parties. I don't think it's Obamas race that gets him into trouble-I think he really does project an elitist image, even if it's not really reflective of who he is.

I'm sure the Obama people will jump in here and tell me Hillary is less likely to relate to people, but her vote demographics aren't supporting that theory. The assumption that most voters are Democrats or Republicans is a fallacy. Many people pay lip service to a party ID, but don't have an emotional investment.

Predicting election results isn't about how many voters identify as Democrat or Republican. It's about trying to isolate groups of voters based on their circumstances or belief systems, and determining which candidate is connecting with them.

[stray cat]

2. What about Hillary's failure to appeal to educated voters, those under 40 and blacks?

[SemiCharmedQuark]

5. Those elitists?

Screw them. They never vote Democratic anyway.

[bowens43]

3. another meaningless poll

[Kokonoe]

4. Clinton lost

I think McCain has a problem.

[Middle finga]

6. Did they identify how many of those voters they sampled are

Republicans? Why is the MSM allowed to pick the democratic presidential candidate by the preference of white blue collar conservative voters. Most of those voters probably voted for Bush twice now we are allowing them to decide our candidate in the democratic primaries. Liberal and progressive voters doesn't get the opportunity to decide the repub candidate during their primary. This narrative is media driven and should be rejected.

[jeffrey_X]

7. Please give me a valid reason why this is the case?

Let's face it, at the end of the day the policies between Clinton and Obama are just not that different.

So what's the real reason?

[my3boyz]

8. What happened to the ignore function? I'm so tired of these threads. Will we get ignore back?

[emilyg]

9. No one is forcing you to read.

[Amerigo Vespucci]

11. Put me on ignore if you'd like

It's the little icon of the person with the red X. click it and you'll never have to read one of my threads again.

You can still do that, and that way you won't have to whine in my threads again. It's a "win-win scenario." Although I would consider myself to be the bigger winner, in all honesty.

Have a nice day.

:grouphug:

[kmsarvis]

10. I find the part that says........

that his unfavorable rating among uneducated whites is up 16 % from November funny.I wonder how many of them had actually heard of Obama back in November?

[Iceburg]

12. "Working class" approx eq to 75% of the total population. Bad news for Obama if the poll is true.

[ecdab]

14. Clinton has about a 53% unfavorable rating among ALL PEOPLE

- so what's your point?

[psychmommy]

16. this is important because

hilly only got 2 delegates out of guam. she can no longer claim momentum. the #'s are looking worse and worse. there has to be some reason that can justify election theft and doggone it the msm is going to find it, working class whites won't vote for him yeah that's the ticket.

[Condem]

17. Is working class whites

Another name for white @#$%^?

[AZBlue]

18. But she'll send their jobs overseas. Why do people vote against their own best interest?

[goletian]

19. working class is another name for uneducated whites? - nt

[powergirl]

20. OBAMA REBOUNDS IN NEW NATIONAL POLL Obama 50/Clinton 38

Oh well, looks like Obama still wins HUGE!

http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/04/obama-rebounds-in-new-national-poll/

From CBS/NY Times:

Obama 50, Clinton 38
Obama’s margin has grown four points since last week. Most respondents also said the Rev. Wright issue has not hurt their opinion of Obama.

However, Democrats split on whether Obama or Clinton would be a stronger opponent against McCain. Obama had a strong lead three months ago.

Among all voters: Obama 51, McCain 40; Clinton 53, McCain 41
Margin of error: 4-6 points. Dates conducted: May 1-3

If someone could post this as an OP, it would be appreciated