New Zogby Numbers.... NC/Obama by 8.... IN/Obama by 2

[aaaaaa5a]

Here's the link...

http://www.zogby.com/


Another New Poll released Monday by Suffolk University has Clinton by 6 in Indiana.

[thewiseguy]

1. Thanks. Those numbers have not really changed in the past 3 days.

[PBS Poll-435]

2. You are right! An Obama +16 in NC 3 days ago to Obama +8 today in NC..

No real change.

:rofl:

And I know it it Zogby. And his dartboard. Does he even make the calls that he says he does?

[thewiseguy]

4. What about Indiana? You seem to ignore Zogby's numbers on Indiana?

FYI I will take those numbers by Zogby.

[PBS Poll-435]

7. So would the Obama Campaign. LOL

:rofl:

Zogby! HAHAHAHA

:rofl:

New SUSA Indiana & NC Poll out tomorrow. I think I will go with their numbers.

[thewiseguy]

11. Zogby was correct in Pennsylvania. SUSA was off by 4.

[PBS Poll-435]

13. GO ZOGBY!!!

Woot!

:woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:

1 out of 127,894 isn't bad. I guess

[thewiseguy]

17. SUSA has been an outlier in Indiana.

[PBS Poll-435]

22. Really?

RCP Average 04/25 - 05/03 -- 47.3 41.5 Clinton +5.8

Zogby 05/02 - 05/03 559 LV 41 43 Obama +2.0
Zogby 05/01 - 05/02 629 LV 42 43 Obama +1.0
Insider Advantage 04/30 - 05/01 478 LV 47 40 Clinton +7.0
Downs Center 04/28 - 04/30 689 LV 52 45 Clinton +7.0
Zogby 04/30 - 05/01 680 LV 42 42 Tie
Rasmussen 04/29 - 04/29 400 LV 46 41 Clinton +5.0
TeleResearch 04/25 - 04/29 943 LV 48 38 Clinton +10.0
PPP (D) 04/27 - 04/28 1347 LV 50 42 Clinton +8.0
SurveyUSA 04/25 - 04/27 628 LV 52 43 Clinton +9.0
Howey-Gauge 04/23 - 04/24 600 LV 45 47 Obama +2.0


The only outliers that I see are Zogby (:rofl:) and the Howey survey (who isn't objective since they endorsed him.)

[thewiseguy]

24. Yes really. When other polls had Obama up in Indiana, SUSA was saying otherwise.

It was more funny when Downs Center asked SUSA to do them an Indiana poll and even they had Obama up!

[PBS Poll-435]

26. Using different (and more unreliable data sampling)

SUSA appears to have been right all along.

And even their most recent survey gives Obama's support # more than a point above the RCP average.

[thewiseguy]

29. Yes they were right in Missouri!

:rofl:

With their "reliable" polling methods!

[PBS Poll-435]

32. And how about Zogby in CA? And Ohio?

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

SUSA has put themselves out there by polling so many races, and this cycle they have proven themselves in the very top tier of pollsters.

[thewiseguy]

34. Who got Pennsylvania right?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[PBS Poll-435]

37. SUSA, obviously. They had Obama's number at 44.

Zogby had it at 41. It ended up 45.4.

Who was closer?

SUSA

[thewiseguy]

39. Zogby had Hillary by 10 while SUSA had her up by 6. Are you for real?

You seem to be high on something? :crazy:

[PBS Poll-435]

41. You think I give a **** about the margin? Nope.

If you read ANY of my PA poll threads, you would know that I cared about Obama's solid support #. Poll after poll, he had 38-45%. And within 1 point (Actually four-tenths of a point. Which I would round DOWN :-)) of accuracy, I was right.

[PseudoIntellect]

48. Do we really have to argue about the polls this much?

ROFL. We've got just two days to wait.

[PBS Poll-435]

50. I agree. And less than 12 hours until SUSA gives their final predictions!

:woohoo:

[PBS Poll-435]

57. Wahoo! NEWS SUSA POLL!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5821657&mesg_id=5821657

[thewiseguy]

58. Thats a joke. We will see the real numbers tomorrow night.

[PBS Poll-435]

59. Yep! Big Joke!

:party:

I can't wait to see Zogby's Monday numbers. Something tells me we will see a DRAMATIC reversal in his IN numbers...

[thewiseguy]

62. something tells me you are still dreaming?

:evilgrin:

[PBS Poll-435]

63. Nah. And I forgot to say Congrats on your 1000th post.

:toast:

[Robbins]

3. Problem

I am an Obama Supporter and gnerally this Is good but losing a point In North Carolina when his
national support Is rebounding seems strange.However If I am wrong A win Is a win.And the fact he has kept a narrow lead In Indiana Is good,and he could(and I stress could) win both tuesday.

[thewiseguy]

6. Thats just statistical noise. You cant possibly reproduce the same numbers over and over again.

[aaaaaa5a]

8. Would You Rather Go Into Tuesday...

WIth a probable Obama blowout in North Carolina but a loss in Indiana?

Or both states reasonably close meaning he could win or lose both contests Tuesday night?

[PBS Poll-435]

16. NC is an obvious Obama win because of early voting.

Is there a way for people to correct their early-votes?

:rofl:

[Zachstar]

5. I do not like that Obama by 6 poll. That is way too close.

A more secure number is closer to 15.

Indiana is too close to call. He needs to open it up by atleast 5 to get a secure win.

[writes3000]

9. Edit: The Washington Times? I find it tough to take them seriously. n/t

[PBS Poll-435]

10. Stop trying to make Indiana "happen."

It is NOT going to happen.

[thewiseguy]

12. Says who?

[PBS Poll-435]

14. Facts.

(And Math)!

:rofl:

[thewiseguy]

18. Where are those facts?

[Zachstar]

15. Why do you care?

[PBS Poll-435]

19. I guess I don't care if Obama throws any more of your $$$ into a state that he can't win.

More tv ads, please!

[thewiseguy]

20. You sound bitter.

[PBS Poll-435]

23. I am not bitter. At all.

Indiana is DONE.

[thewiseguy]

25. Indiana is even done voting yet, and in your dreams that Indiana is done.

[PBS Poll-435]

27. Done. Move along. Save NC.

DONE

[Zachstar]

30. Are you drunk?

[PBS Poll-435]

35. Drunk, no. Realistic, yes.

Indiana is OVER.

[thewiseguy]

36. Indiana is "Mission Accomplished"

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[PBS Poll-435]

40. No. Just done.

:P

[Name removed]

44. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Alexander]

42. He's been sipping shots of Crown Royal with Hillary.

[PBS Poll-435]

43. Yep!

:beer::beer:

:eyes:

[thewiseguy]

31. See you on Tuesday!

[Zachstar]

28. Why arent you a happy one today.

I was talking poll results and hope nothing warranted your crap. Take a dump elseware.

[PBS Poll-435]

38. You asked why I cared and I told you. You are the one that made it "personal"

You can go take a dump elsewhere (:rofl:)

[aaaaaa5a]

21. I agree... I wish I could find some crosstabs.

[MadBadger]

33. I dont see the 6 point poll.

[MadBadger]

45. The Article from the Wash Times cannot be found. What poll was it?

[Tropics_Dude83]

46. Turns out it was a Suffolk Indiana poll showing Clinton up 49-43 there

The website washingtontimes.com has a link.

[MadBadger]

49. Apparently dems were in favor of Bush's tax cuts there 48-33...not buying that stat.

[aaaaaa5a]

51. THANK YOU VERY MUCH....

I can't believe I put North Carolina instead of Indiana in my opening post.

I really do apologize.

I have North Carolina "on the brain" because to me it's the more important state Tuesday night. And right now I'm very worried about it.


Again, thank you for noticing my opening mistake. I edited the correction into the first post.


I wish I could see the crosstabs on that poll.

[PBS Poll-435]

52. It is CLINTON by six according to the updated times link

http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080505/NATION/658166943/1002

[aaaaaa5a]

53. Upon Further Review....

I actually think I read the article properly the first time. I think the Washington post had the poll up for the wrong state on their website. Infact the link I originally posted is now dead. And I tried it about 10 minutes ago and it was working fine. I had to remove the bad link.

In retrospect I think the Washington Post got it wrong. But either way I'm glad you guys were able to clear everything up.


Suffolk County Indiana Poll.... Clinton by 6

Zogby Indiana Poll.... Obama by 2

Zogby North Carolina Poll.... Obama by 8


shame on you!!! Washington Times....

[PBS Poll-435]

54. No biggie.

Thanks for posting the data to begin with!

:toast:

[aaaaaa5a]

47. Here are the crosstabs to Saturday's Zogby Numbers...

They may be important because Zogby's Sunday results were nearly identical to his Saturday numbers.


Zogby's Saturday crosstabs

In Indiana, BHO/HRC/und:
18-29 - 51.8/34.0/7.8
30-49 - 50.5/34.8/7.7
50-64 - 37.8/47.6/6.9
65+ - 28.3/51.4/10.2
Male - 47.0/38.1/8.1
Female - 39.3/43.9/9.7
White - 35.9/47.1/9.1
Afr-Am - 77.9/7.5/14.6

In North Carolina, BHO/HRC/und:
18-29 - 52.4/35.6/12.0
30-49 - 57.8/32.0/6.2
50-64 - 45.4/39.3/8.4
65+ - 32.3/53.4/8.4
Male - 46.8/42.1/7.0
Female - 48.2/37.2/8.6
White - 33.0/55.5/3.8
Afr-Am - 77.7/5.8/15.7

I got this from another poster at the dailykos.

[Triana]

55. I'm pretty sure Hillary will get Indiana.

I'd LOVE to be wrong.

[MadBadger]

56. I think Obama will outperform his numbers in another southern state

Just like he did in VA, GA, SC, and AL.

[Texas Hill Country]

60. zogby has not been right once... they even corrected their numbers AFTER pa

zogby is a joke.

[truebrit71]

61. If that holds HRC concedes tomorrow night!!

Please, please,please,please,please,please,please,please,please,please,please,please,

[noisyanimal]

64. Zogby better pray Obama wins in Indiana

The pollster already screwed up with huge Obama-biased polls in OH and CA. His reputation as a pro-Obama pollster would be further damaged if he blows Indiana in a similar way, specially after his brother has called for Hillary to withdraw from the race in a Huffingtgon Post Op-ed.