Clinton-supporting RBC Member Shay Predicts MI and FL will be Seated 50%

[Triana]

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/rbc-member-predicts-florida-will-be.html

Shay has endorsed Clinton, as have 12 other members of the rules and bylaws committee.

My fear is that, as someone commented on DemConWatch, Obama may reach the necessary 2024.5 delegates within days of reaching 1627 pledged delegates in May, then the Rules and Bylaws Committee will strip him of the win on May 31 when they meet to discuss FL and MI.

They're mostly HILLARY loyalists and I wouldn't put it past them. In 2000, we had the Supreme Court appoint bu$h. And in 2008, it appears that a passel of HillBots are likely to force Hillary in as nominee. Whether she actually won the spot - or NOT - by changing rules SHE previously agreed to, in order to get her in there.

And Ms. "I-want-the-rules-I-agreed-to-changed-now-that-I'm-losing!" Hillary is strongarming, threatening, cajoling, buying - whatever she has to do to twist things that SHE PREVIOUSLY AGREED to around a different way so she can "win".

Hillary Clinton - the Republican she is - is trying to steal this election. And like a good Republican, she's getting all her little friends to help her do it.

[democracy1st]

1. thanks Triana It will never happen

It would send the Democratic party in a backwards spin.

[kwenu]

2. If they do, this is going to end up before the Supreme Court.

They cannot blithely overturn a ruling that was relied upon and agreed to by the candidates in advance. At least not without getting slapped with a lawsuit that you damn well better believe Obama is already primed for. And he will win that too.

[Triana]

3. I hope ya'll are right but I would put NOTHING past Hillary & Friends.

NOTHING. Anymore than I'd put it past bu$h himself and his pals.

[dansolo]

19. Actually, 50% wouldn't be a bad thing

Assuming that the superdelegates are prohibited, and Obama gets all of the Uncommittted delegates from MI. It will net Hillary about +60 delegates. In the end, that won't be enough for her, not by a long shot.

[kwenu]

20. The key is they will have to seek an agreement from all of the candidates in order for the seating

of delegates to take place. Anything less and it will be sitting in front of a judge.

[cliffordu]

4. If they do I predict blood in the streets,

Figuratively of course....but maybe literally, depending on how shitty it gets....

[Triana]

14. With the Clintons involved and their friends, it'll get pretty nasty, I predict.

I hope I'm wrong but ....

[cliffordu]

16. Third party now!!

[madfloridian]

5. Not counted except by agreement of BOTH candidates....

Remember this is the same rules committee that sanctioned them. It is not going to happen in any way that both candidates do not agree on.

[Triana]

9. That's the funny thing. Hillary agreed on not seating MI and FL to begin with..

...now she wants to change it.

[thoughtcrime1984]

6. Wouldn't adding the 2 states 50/50 still leave him the winner?

The total delegates needed would increase, but he would meet that increase by getting half of the "new" delegates.

[Triana]

8. If they do it that way, but even Shay says Hillary is likely to object - you KNOW she will...

...object to/reject any scenario where she can't "win".

[lapfog_1]

10. No, it's not a 50/50 split

it's a 2 for 1 based on the January vote. Here is his "solution".

"What I anticipate will happen is that—and I have not received any communications from anybody, this is just my own thoughts on the matter—that the super delegates will likely be seated from both states. That Florida will be seated with a half delegate for each pledged delegate based upon the January results. The concept there being that there must be some punishment for violating the rules, and at the same time, excluding those two states is very difficult."

So, Florida gets all of it's super delegates and 1/2 of the pledged delegates, and the pledged delegates are divvied up according to the "primary" that Florida had.

This would be a +19 in pledged delegates and a +4 in Supers for Clinton.

It is expected that the Clinton campaign would reject this compromise as it isn't enough to overcome the likely lead of Obama. And it doesn't do anything for Michigan.

[Triana]

11. "the Clinton campaign would reject this compromise as it isn't enough to overcome the likely lead ..

...of Obama"

IN OTHER WORDS, as I said, Hillary will REJECT any scenario that won't let her "win" - though she initially AGREED that these delegates and SDs from these two states would not be counted.

[jackson_dem]

13. That's negotiating. You enter taking a hard line position and then compromise

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. He'll need to get more than 2025 to ensure that can't happen

I can't find my thread with advanced search gone, but essentially in order to be completely MI/FL-proof he'll need at least 2081; but to be absolutely sure, 2100 would be ideal.

(That's the number he'd need of delegates that are currently available - not the number he'd need of the additional delegates if MI and FL were added in. But this calculates the number he'd be losing, essentially 56 from MI/FL plus some superdelegates.)

Estimating (conservatively) that he'll take 47% of the remaining delegates, that would give him 190 more and bring his total to 1680 plus 248 superdelegates, for a total of 1928.

With 278 remaining superdelegates, in order to reach 2025 he'd need 35% of them.

In order to reach 2100 he'd need 62% of them - certainly within reach. I'm optimistic that he can achieve a MI/FL-proof number like that and we can finally put this all behind us.

[jackson_dem]

12. Good. We are insane if we think we can disenfranchise 10% of the country, 2 big swing states and win

[leftofcool]

18. Exactly

[Capn Sunshine]

15. I know Garry Shay

And having worked with him at the State and national level for years, I have a very high opinion of him. Not all Clinton Supers are intractable robots who do Hillary's bidding you know. In fact of all the Supers I deal with, he is the most committed to the Democratic Party. The work he has done here in Cali for the party is without equal.

He's level headed and fair, and I've been among those from the Obama Campaign calling for the 50% compromise. We have this won, people, and it's just a matter of waiting for the right time to close the door on Hillary's campaign.

And that includes counting on Garry Shays to do the right thing, like he always has and always will.

[Triana]

17. Thanks for that insight! I appreciate it. :) n/t