NC Poll: Clinton & Obama in Virtual Tie

[progressive25]

Exposed Story

Democrat presidential candidate Sen. Barrack Obama's lead in North Carolina has melted away as Sen. Hillary Clinton's recent momentum has pushed her into a virtual tie with Obama just one day before the important primary election is being held.

According to poll conducted Sunday May 4 of 781 registered likely voters in the Tuesday Democratic primary by InsiderAdvantage, Obama is polling 48% to Clinton's 45%, with a 3% margin of error.

Link to rest: http://www.exposedstory.com/my_weblog/2008/05/nc-poll-clinton.html

[bluestateguy]

1. InsiderAdvantage has been in the tank for Hillary ever since this all started

Total bullshit, and most likely fake poll numbers.

[progressive25]

3. Read it.

Why because it disagrees with your wishes?

[nebulovsky]

46. I agree. Insider Advantage is to Hillary what Zogby is to Obama n/t

[rodeodance]

2. and Bill C. will do lots of campaign stops today in NC. GO BILL.

[melody]

4. The usual Clinton corporate hype

God, I'm truly beginning to despise these bastards.

[mythyc]

5. "Exposed" story?

careful with those dangling participles :rofl:

[hokies4ever]

6. Math of this poll: Obama has 85% chance to win NC

Even though this poll looks like an outlier, let's assume every other poll is wrong and this poll is golden. Statistically speaking, this poll says that there is an 85% chance that Obama is 'truly' ahead of Hillary. Call it a 'virtual tie' if you want, but an 85% chance in this outlier poll hardly suggests that Hillary will be dropping the confetti in her NC headquarters tomorrow night.

Here's a good statistics reference for polling numbers, margin of error, and what they really mean. It gives the percent likelihood that a candidate is ahead based on the margin of error and the separation between the two candidates.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_08/004536.php

[rodeodance]

39. another obama WORT game

[hokies4ever]

41. sorry simple math

and statistics is like a foreign language to you. You have your tissues ready for when Hillary gives her concession speech. It might be coming as early as tomorrow. At least she has $2.3 billion of earmark requests to fall back on.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

7. "Democrat presidential candidate?"

[hokies4ever]

13. Hillary supporters thinking like Republicans now

[MyNameGoesHere]

19. Unity, hope and change supporter being a dick as usual. n/t

[hokies4ever]

24. Use RW talking points

and that's what you get you little prick. Don't you have some pastorbating to do?

[MyNameGoesHere]

35. Hey i would like to invite you over for some tea.

Show you some unity, hope, and change Richard Cranium

[rodeodance]

38. "you little prick." MORE name-calling form an IMMATURE Obama fan

[hokies4ever]

40. sometimes when you're getting elbows thrown at you

you throw some back. If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. Go have tea and bake cookies with Hillary. :rofl:

[hell-bent]

45. And you my friend, should sip some more of that special

Kool-Aid that the Obama organization has served to its surrogates. :>)

[hokies4ever]

51. Hillary will thank us for this later

I'm just making sure that all of her baggage has been completely rummaged through like she said it was. Just putting her through the paces you know. After all, we know that the Republican attack machine will use this in the fall. :rofl:

[Leopolds Ghost]

54. What makes you think this is a Hillary supporter?

25 posts... "Democrat presidential candidate"... hmm.

[jefferson_dem]

26. Check out info on Repuke Matt Towery - IA's polling guru ---

Republican State Convention, chairman
Georgia Association of Republican Elected Officials

...

Political History
1992 Elected to the Georgia State House of Representatives
1990 Republican Nominee for Lt. Governor

http://www.legis.state.ga.us/legis/1995_96/house/gahm30.htm

[Coexist]

8. these crosstabs have Clinton getting 17% of AA vote - not likely.

[jefferson_dem]

9. IA is run by repugs and a joke of a polling firm. They even lie about their own numbers.

Their top line # are Obama at 48.4 and Hillary at 44.5. How convenient. They round his numbers down and hers up to conlcude that it's a "virtual tie". But is it really, if the MoE is +/- 3?

Obama will get more than 79% of the AA vote in NC they are predicting.

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/Sunday%20NC%20poll.pdf

[bowens43]

10. keep dreaming, you have only one day left.

Tomorrow , it's over for hillary.

[Triana]

11. 25 posts eh? Hillary paid you yet?

Who the heck is "Exposed Story"?

Never heard of them, and you have few posts here.

Credibility = zero.

FAIL.

[rodeodance]

14. Its rude to call out new DU members. Would you do that if the poll was Obamas favor??

[progressive25]

17. They would embrace it!

And say it was infallible.

[hokies4ever]

18. rodeodance = Clinton-apologist / Obama-hater

Your time is almost up dude. How does it feel knowing that Hillary is drafting a concession speech today just in case she needs to drop out? It'll be the first inspiring speech she's given all throughout the primary season. :rofl:

[rodeodance]

29. I am not the one doing the IMMATURE HS type bully name-calling. You are.

[hokies4ever]

31. You've been doing it nonstop and many people keep telling you that

I hope to be inspired by Hillary's concession speech if she drops out of the race tomorrow night. :rofl:

[rodeodance]

34. too bad.

[anigbrowl]

43. It's rude to keep creating sockpuppets as well

It's become a daily pattern by now, as you know.

[jasmine621]

53. Don't even try to reason with fools. You can't win. nt

[jordi_fanclub]

12. What a PIECE-OF-SH!T of a "poll"...

First: seems that the young people is UNDER-represented (less than 1/3 of the other age groups)... but WORSE,
Second: That "24.4" it's a mathematical IMPOSSIBLE; try to divide 1, 2, 3... per 8 and you NEVER obtain 0.244 !!!



Direct LINK to that POS: http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/Sunday%20NC%20poll.pdf

[hokies4ever]

15. GREAT JOB!

Tearing this BS poll to pieces. The 18-29 age group numbers are hilarious. As an Obama supporter, I am now completely confident in an Obama victory, because he's going to win even if you take out the youth vote according to this poll.

[hell-bent]

49. What are you talking about? Take out the youth vote

and he has little support. Late pubescence is a characteristic of the typical Obamatron.

[mythyc]

21. you ROCK Jordi !

:headbang:

anyone who recs or touts this poll is a RW POS

[rodeodance]

16. Welcome to DU and thanks for the post.

[progressive25]

20. Thanks.

I have learned to develop thick skin.

[mythyc]

22. Repitles need it

[rodeodance]

27. and yet another immature post.

[progressive25]

28. Good likeness.

Like it.

[Buzz Clik]

23. No other polls see it that way.

However, if Hillary is willing to withdraw from the race if she doesn't win or tie, then I'll accept your poll.

[tledford]

25. Senator Clinton just made up my mind for *this* NC voter.

I was an Edwards supporter and was disappointed when he dropped out of the race, but never really thought he had a chance to win, as he and Kucinich were the candidates that were the most threatening to the established power structure. I have had no serious reservations about either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama, however, although Clinton's hawkishness occasionally gave me pause. On most domestic and economic issues, Clinton and Obama are just not that far apart except for some details; Clinton has the better health care plan, for example, while Obama is absolutely correct to point out the idiocy and pointlessness of the "gas tax holiday."

But Senator Clinton (and Obama) were each interviewed on CNN this morning and she had a chance to explain or modify the most worrisome thing she has said recently and that was the "obliterate Iran" remark. Instead of explaining it or trying to make it seem like a rational remark rather than lunacy-in-a-phrase, she *repeated* it and stated once more that she was perfectly willing to exterminate 70 million people.

I normally vote early but haven't done so this year because I've really been going back and forth between the two remaining candidates. Now my decision is made thanks to Senator Clinton's appearance on CNN this morning: I will vote for Senator Obama tomorrow.

[cjsmom44]

30. RE: WELCOME ABOARD

WELCOME ABOARD THE TRAIN OF HOPE

WELCOME ABOARD THE PATH OF A NEW POLITICS

WELCOME ABOARD THE WAY TO NEW DIPLOMACY

WELCOME ABOARD FOR A NEW TOMMOROW

WELCOME ABOARD FOR A NEW ERA OF RESPECT FOR THE GREAT NATION THAT WE CAN AND WILL BE

WELCOME WELCOME WELCOME....

I APPLAUD YOUR DECISION...AND I APPLAUD YOUR DISCERNMENT AS A VOTER... :applause: :applause: :applause:

[EnviroBat]

37. Good for you. We're glad your here!

:hi:

[DURHAM D]

42. Are you actually under the impression that she said she would "obliterate Iran"? eom

[Arugula Latte]

56. Oh, so we should just chalk that up as another Hillary lie, just par for the course, huh?

[Arugula Latte]

55. Good choice, tledford!

Welcome to DU and to Obama! ... :toast:

[JimGinPA]

32. Welcome To DU...

There are some who disagree;

[democrattotheend]

33. Didn't this same poll have Clinton leading last week?

Wasn't that Insider Advantage that had Clinton ahead by 2 points in NC at one point?

[nyccitizen]

36. Yes. It had her up 2 last Thursday in NC. nt

[annie1]

44. how is that happeneing? 45% of democrats in nc are black...

and doesn't he start off with something like 80% off the black vote? which would give him a start of 36% right off the bat.

[Nia Zuri]

47. Maybe they're a fixin' to steal it and need some cover.

[hell-bent]

50. Oh yes, when there is a chance of losing always throw

out the "fixing to steal it" card.....

[Condem]

48. Yepper.

That's why he's in Indiana. Moron.

[RBInMaine]

52. IA is full of crapola. They are ALWAYS wrong !