dbmk

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Mon May-05-08 07:12 AM
Original message

Indiana - The Numbers

Edited on Mon May-05-08 08:09 AM by dbmk

Hello guys and girls!

Time for another little post on the numbers of a coming primary contest.

I'll start with Indiana (North Carolina will follow asap)

Lets get right into it:

Indiana

According to the http://indems.3cdn.net/1efd23d4bb4d8dce3d_tam6bp2v2.htm">Selection Plan for Indiana the pledged delegates are distributed as follows:

District-Level Delegates: 47 - distributed over 9 districts of varying size allocations.
Pledged PLEO Delegates: 9
At-Large Delegates: 16

For a total of 72 pledged delegates at stake in tomorrows primary.

Lets have a look at the districts. I am going to work from the different predictions I have been able to find on the different blogs out there.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/4/161114/5058/573/508962">PsiFighter37 at dKos
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/indiana-toss-up-but-tilts-clinton.html">fivethirtyeight.coms computermodel
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/05/04/election-inspections-final-indiana-projection/">Elliot at electioninspection - he won the prediction contest on PA at TheField.

Note: There is quite a few districts with even numbered delegates. In general that seems to work in Obamas favour here as there might be a few where Hillary will break 50% but not overwhelmingly. (In other states it hasn't been in his favour - before someone starts crying foul and what have you.)

6 delegates - Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 3

Second largest AA population of the districts. Close to Chicago. Thats points for Obama in what otherwise might look more like a Clinton area. Most seem to agree that neither will break the 58,333% threshold though. So thats going even split. It might be an outside shot a +2 for Obama if the AA+Chicago influence is stronger than expected.

6 delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction:Obama 3 Clinton 3

Again 58,333% is the threshold for a 4-2 split. Should be Clinton area but apparently the polls show Obama even with Clinton in north Indiana - so this is again called for an even split. this one tilts to Clinton though, so could be 4-2 in her favour.

4 delegates -- Split percentages | 12,500% | 37,500% | 62,500% | 87,500% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 2

Borders a 60-40 Ohio district for Clinton. This areas a bit more mixed - but should be a sure win for Clinton. Everyone agrees that 62,5% is a bit far fetched though. Even split again.

4 delegates -- Split percentages | 12,500% | 37,500% | 62,500% | 87,500% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 2

Another 4 delegate district with a tough 62,5% threshold that will make it hard for Clinton to make a delegate gain here. This district stretches half of Indiana from north to south. Mostly rural with some Indianapolis suburbs. Purdue University gives Obama a little plus. Clinton wins here, but not enough. Split again.

4 delegates -- Split percentages | 12,500% | 37,500% | 62,500% | 87,500% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 2

Looks like CD#4. Above average income. 538 calls it: "Home to Indiana's bourgeoisie" - but also very republican overall. Giving the gasbag a chance of meddling some. Depending on the Limbaugh vote, this could be an Obama win - but still only for a split.
(By now it should be clear to new readers what restrictions the district delegates puts on the overall development in the remaining primaries.)

5 delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 3

The only district with an odd number of delegates. That will hand Clinton +1 delegate in a mostly, geographically at least, rural district that borders Ohio heavily and is the least educared area. Obama got just under 40 in the neighbouring Ohio district and there are some Indianapolis suburban like areas in play with a large part of the population in this district, so it is deemed more or less impossible for Clinton to break the 70% needed for a 4-1 split.

6 delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 2

Indianapolis. 29.4% AA population. Even though the demographics are seemingly not as favourable as in you would normally see in an urban district like this, Obama should be able to break the 58,333% for a 4-2 split, but 75% for a 5-1 seems out of the question.

6 delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 4

Should be Clinton leaning land, even if it neighbours Obamas Illionois. Some think Hillary can break the 58,333% for 4-2 split. And given that its Bayhs hometurf as well, it is very likely. If Obama does good overall theres a good shot at him holding this for an even split. But expect 4-2 Clinton.

6 delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 3

Again heavy Clinton land (borders Kentucky to boot) - but former, and apparently still quite popular, congressman (30+) years Lee Hamilton has endorsed Obama and we have Indiana University in Bloomington that should give Obama a buffer to keep Clinton under 58,333%. Yet another split.

That gives us a total on the district level delegates of:

Obama 23 - Clinton 24

This could move +/- 4 for both as some of the above predictions could be quite close. More likely for Clinton than Obama perhaps.

Statewide delegates

Realclearpolitics have a average on the polls atm at just under 6%. I am going to err on the side of Clinton here and go with a mini-PA result of 8% for a 54-46 win (which will probably be rounded up to a tripledigit win).
That gives us:

Pledged Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEOs)
9 delegates -- Split percentages | 5,556% | 16,667% | 27,778% | 38,889% | 50,000% | 61,111% | 72,222% |

83,333% | 94,444% |
Obama 4 - Clinton 5

The 3-6 split is out of the question. That would mean a 22 point win for Hillary.

At-Large Delegates
16 Delegates
Split percentages from 4 to 12 | 21,875% | 28,125% | 34,375% | 40,625% | 46,875% | 53,125% | 59,375% | 65,625% | 71,875% |
Obama 7 - Clinton 9

This could go 8-8 if Obama keeps it under a 6,25 point loss. 6-10 would mean a 30 point loss. Not happening.

That gives us a grand total of:

Obama 34 - Clinton 38

A 4 delegate win for Senator Clinton. Two of my mentioned predictors even have it 36-36. Could be 32-40 if Hillary has a good day.

There is not really a big win scenario for Hillary here, unless she really breaks out in the districts beyond all expectations.

Anyways - there you have it. What do YOU think?

I will follow up with North Carolina later today.
(13 districts.. Why can't they all be more like http://journals.democraticunderground.com/dbmk/1">Guam?).