New Indiana Poll: Clinton Leads Obama By 6 Points

[BobbyVan]

http://www.suffolk.edu/28622.html

From Suffolk University poll:
Clinton 49, Obama 43, undecided 6.

Dates conducted: May 3-4. Error margin: 4 points.

---

Hillary Clinton (49 percent) leads Barack Obama (43 percent) among likely Indiana Democratic voters, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University.

Six percent of Democratic voters were undecided, and 2 percent refused a response. However, 38 percent of these likely Democratic voters -- which include registered Democrats, Republicans, members of other political parties and independents -- said they would vote for John McCain in November if their Democratic choice does not win the party’s nomination.

"It’s no slam-dunk, but Hillary Clinton is poised to win the Hoosier state, provided there aren’t some critical turnovers late," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "Although the margin appears to be single digits at this point, the outcome will hinge on high turnouts in Marion and Lake counties, which are crucial for Obama."

[rodeodance]

1. and Hillary does tend to pick up undecideds toward the end.

[Buzz Clik]

2. That seems to be hitting it right in the middle.

Indiana seems likely to tilt to Clinton by at least 5 points.

[cali]

3. I think she's likely to win by 8 points or so.

in Indiana and lose by 10 pts or so in NC. Tomorrow will likely be a wash.

[Hepburn]

5. Which, of couse, leaves her still behind with no place to go...

...except to try and steal the nomination at the convention. If she does that, it is IMO a guarantee that she will further damage our party to the point that McCain will be elected.

[AllentownJake]

4. Better win by 20

That's the only path to the nomination...anything below 20 is a loss.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

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[DMorgan]

8. A win by a small margin proves NOTHING!

And only prolongs the pain.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. Unless it isn't.

Winning by 6 will decrease her ability to catch up on delegates.

Aka, winning the battle and losing the war.

[AllentownJake]

13. Wow

Personal Insults after 8 post...I'd put you on Ignore but I don't think I'll be seeing you that much in the furture for some odd reason.

I'd also explain to you why a win is not a win when your seriously behind. However I don't explain math to 3 year olds.

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

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[jordi_fanclub]

7. Another "candidate to a POS "poll"?

I cannot find the results in the link you provided. Of course it's not your fault.
But the difference at this moment between your OP and the TIME link provided is ZERO.

[BobbyVan]

10. i've updated the post w/ more info

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The Poll Is AT RCP

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html


But the specific link goes to the university's website...That poll isn't linked yet...


I'm laughing watching people get so upset over polls when we will know the actual results in less than thirty six hours...

[faithfulcitizen]

11. I have a hard time believing ANY Indiana poll, just too many variables.

[indimuse]

12. K&R!

!

[Mass]

14. She was always the favorite in IN, so I expect her to win. If it is only by 6 points, it will be a

small victory.

[Stevepol]

15. What is Suffolk University? What gives their poll any validity?

[Aloha Spirit]

16. It's a University here in Boston that's pretty good at polling, they use

bellwether districts.
However, here's a gem from the IN poll:
Only 44 percent of Indiana Democratic Primary voters said that, if their choice lost the Democratic nomination, they would still vote Democratic. A considerably high 38 percent indicated they would vote for McCain, while 6 percent said they would vote for independent Ralph Nader, and an additional 11 percent were undecided. "This 38 percent is one of several statistical signs that Republicans are meddling in the Democratic fray, knowing full well they will vote Republican come November," said Paleologos.

http://www.suffolk.edu/college/28622.html

[Blue_Roses]

19. so is this the reason Hillary is polling well in Indiana?

what is going on here?

[Aloha Spirit]

20. I'm guessing close to 20% of tomorrow's IN voters will be (R), which doesn't mean they are trying to

spoil the race necessarily... I think a lot of people just want to have their say in the news story that is Clinton vs Obama.
Some of the (R) voters are spoilers, some are genuinely switching parties, some are just being idiots:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5813423&mesg_id=5813423

[Aloha Spirit]

18. Crosstabs just released:

http://www.suffolk.edu/files/SUPRC/INDIANA_LIKELY_DEM_VOTERS_5_4_08finaltables.pdf

[Aloha Spirit]

21. kick