pollster.com updates their compilations for NC and IN. Interesting!

[Buzz Clik]

Indiana now sits at 3.5% lead for Clinton. Hillary's post-pastor bump is done.





Whereas, NC rests at 9.4% for Obama. (The poll from Insider Advantage nudged Clinton up a point):



And that's it until the real voting starts.

Hold onto your hats.

[CoffeeCat]

1. I wonder how that would break down....

...in delegate counts?

Carolina has more delegates, so a solid lead there will net significant delegates for Obama.

Less than a 5-point win for Clinton won't translate into a big disparity in delegates won
between Clinton and Obama.

[rocktivity]

2. Less than a 38-point win doesn't help Hillary AT ALL delegate-wise

Every time she fails to get 69% of the vote from here on in, her goalposts get a little taller:

43-point or more margin of victory = blowout

38 - 42 points = a "real" win

30 - 37 points = good, but not good enough

11 – 29 points = a wash

5 - 10 points = useless

1 - 4 points = concession speech

Now, look at how her superdelegate lead--her ace in the hole--has shrunk. It's currently in the mid-teens:




And check out the numbers on this DU thread:

In order to gain a majority (1627) of pledged delegates:
– Obama needs 137 (34%) of the 408 remaining unpledged delegates
– Clinton needs 291 (71%) of the 408 remaining unpledged delegates.

You're welcome.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Buzz Clik]

5. She will likely see 69-31 type wins in West Virginia and Kentucky.

Unfortunately, the delegate counts are small.

The reality is that he can easily to the delegate count he needs without winning another primary. That wouldn't be good psychology, however, when luring Supers.

[SoonerPride]

6. I doubt it

The gap always closes

[rocktivity]

8. If she doesn't get 69% of NC and IN tomorrow

she'll need a couple of points MORE than 69% of WV and KY.

Besides, those are only two contests--to catch up with Obama, she needs at least 69% of the vote in ALL NINE of them.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Buzz Clik]

3. Excellent question.

Judging by past trends, I'm guessing that if the polls in the OP are correct, that Obama will net a few delegates.

[Texas Hill Country]

4. and how often has pollster been accurate? Oh that's right, it hasnt....

[Buzz Clik]

7. pollster does no polling. They average major polls. Nice try, though.

California: nailed it.



Ohio: nailed it.


Pennsylvania: nailed it.



Texas: nailed it.



Care to try again?

[cliffordu]

9. I just love it when people know what the fuck they are doing....

:patriot:

[Indenturedebtor]

11. LOL

That's a bumpersticker worth comment if I've ever seen one!

Well lets see who bothers to turn out in Indiana!

I'm predicting MUCH bigger impact from the youth vote there because elections have been largely pointless in IN for years. Just a thought :P

[berni_mccoy]

10. Excellent and logical refutation of complete desperate Hillary-supporter nonsense

[MarjorieG]

12. Will IN suppress vote like Philly? 1/4 rolls purge of AA vote, and 1/4 that in Gary-due BO votes

Hillary is still the machine candidate with coerced 40 leaders in support (by Bayh's plea he'll be short-listed VP-although neutral sounding at JJ dinner). We can't say anything to cast doubt on 2008 result? Again, totally unverifiable vote around the country-new and old tricks.

(sp)

[Life Long Dem]

13. They nailed it 4 out of 46 states?

And wasn't there a lot of voter suppression in PA? Ohio? Texas, and CA. Why are they all big states? I smell something. But I do think they have the graphics down with the nice colors! And In, and NC are not big states.

[Buzz Clik]

14. You want me to post every graphic from every completed primary?

Those were hotly contested, critical, big states that all went for Hillary by varying margins. pollster.com nailed all four.

Look for yourself and post every state that they blew: www.pollster.com