Final SUSA Indiana Clinton 54 to Obama 42

[sunonmars]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=777e9395-9b22-44ec-a525-981fcb9029e9

24 hours till votes are counted in the Indiana Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama in the symbolically important popular vote, and possibly by enough to pick up more than a trivial number of net Convention delegates, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-primary tracking poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. In 4 tracking polls over the past 5 weeks, Clinton has never polled lower than 52%, Obama has never polled higher than 43%. At the wire, they finish: Clinton 54%, Obama 42%. Among males, the two have been tied in 3 of the 4 tracking polls. Among females, Clinton has always led by at least 14, and finishes ahead by 22. Among Republicans and Independents, the two are effectively tied. Among Democrats, Clinton finishes ahead by 19. Clinton leads among Conservatives, Moderates and Liberals. She leads among Pro Life and Pro Choice voters, among regular and not-so-regular church goers. In Northern Indiana, she leads by 11. In Central and Southern Indiana, she leads by 27. In greater Indianapolis, Obama leads. Among voters under 35, Obama leads. Among voters over 35, Clinton leads.

[NJSecularist]

1. A 10 point win for Hillary is a disaster for Obama.

Go Hill! :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[sfam]

2. Define disaster. Are you predicting a concession speech? Will this change the math? or...

Are we just talking again about this "perception of the moment" crap?

[rocktivity]

28. Anything less than a 38-point margin of victory doesn't boost Hillary's numbers

That works out to 69% of the vote, and she'll have get it in ALL NINE of the remaining contests to catch Obama:

43-point or more margin of victory = blowout

38 - 42 points = a "real" win

30 - 37 points = good, but not good enough

11 – 29 points = a wash

5 - 10 points = useless

1 - 4 points = concession speech

:headbang:
rocknation

[cali]

4. nope. not if Obama wins by 10 in NC

it's a wash. And nothing changes.

[Texas Hill Country]

7. he wont tho

[cali]

37. the average of all recent polls in NC has Obama up by 9.2

The newest by NC polling firm PPP has him up by 10. Odds are he'll win by 8-10 abd odds are Hill will do the same in IN. In the end, she'll gain zip if that's how it sugars off.

[Pawel K]

6. Yeah, except that it isn't.

Unless you are cheering about what a disaster this will be in November for him. because as you know there is no way in hell Hillary can win the nomination.

[Seen the light]

3. Ouch

God bless North Carolina though. :)

[Texas Hill Country]

5. SUSA has been the most spot on this year... k&r

[Boz]

16. And for them to change behavior at the last minute and be wrong.......

would be interesting. If that were true do you think people would question why they would change.

Would you think they would ask why the owner of SUSA would Have Bill Clinton on his payroll?

Would you think they would ask why SUSA was given all of the mailing list data from the Hillary Clinton campaign for a mere 8,000 dollars?

Would you think they would ask, how a company who owes its existance to a campaign family, might fell beholden to add a few points to impact the outcome of an election?

Hmm do you think there might be a modicum of reasonable doubt to take these numbers with a slightly skewed grain of salt to think it may be just a but closer?

[PBS Poll-435]

18. LOL. You have no idea what you are talking about.

By your logic, Dr. Sanjay Gupta must also be in the pockets of the Clintons.

[Boz]

40. You should educate yourself before you remove any doubt about what you know or dont know

The name is VINOD GUPTA and he is the founder of both SurveyUSA and InfoUSA

He is a source of Bill Clintons income every year since hes been out of office as well as a major contributor of not only funds but services such as regular use, by the Clintons, of InfoUSAs corporate jet and 80 foot yacht named the american princess.

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/c/bill_clinton/index.html?query=INFOUSA%20INC&field=org&match=exact

In addition he provided them with a family vacation in January 2002 to Acapulco as well as many other favors in return Bill Clinton appointed Mr. Gupta to the board of the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts and offered him several ambassadorships

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/26/us/politics/26clinton.html


Hllary Clintons FEC from december 2007 filing included a payment from InfoUSA of $8225 for the use of her campaign mailing list data including names and financials

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18958566

This list was given to InfoUSA which in the past InfoUSA advertised lists of “Elderly Opportunity Seekers,” 3.3 million older people “looking for ways to make money,” and “Suffering Seniors,” 4.7 million people with cancer or Alzheimer’s disease. “Oldies but Goodies” contained 500,000 gamblers over 55 years old, for 8.5 cents apiece. One list said: “These people are gullible. They want to believe that their luck can change.”

And previously these lists had been used to prey on the elderly using a scam the thieves operated from small offices in Toronto and hangar-size rooms in India. Every night, working from lists of names and phone numbers, they called World War II veterans, retired schoolteachers and thousands of other elderly Americans and posed as government and health insurance workers updating their files.

Then, the criminals emptied their victims’ bank accounts.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/20/business/20tele.html?ei=5070&em=&en=ad871c2e7de29df9&ex=1179806400&pagewanted=print


You do not know what YOU are talking about, I know exactly what I am talking about.

[PBS Poll-435]

42. INFOUSA IS NOT SURVEYUSA

SurveyUSA was founded 9/15/90 by Jay H. Leve.

Leve remains in charge of the day-to-day operations of the company.

Leve is a former newspaper reporter and editor at the Miami Herald. He worked 7 years at Knight-Ridder, the company that owned the Miami Herald. Leve has a MSJ and a BSJ, with highest distinction, from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University.

[Boz]

45. And recieved its first round of public funding in 1998 from, wait for it , wait for it

InfoUSA.

The software was written in 92 by Leve and operated for local news companies as survey us.

InfoUSA gained controlling interest when it facilitated the company being taken public and it BECAME SurveyUSA formerly survey us software.

Do not confuse the BRAND and Business with the corporation.

Its also SurveyUSA that powers InfoUSAs Opinion Research BRAND that supplies CNNs polling numbers

Two companies, several brands and common software, intellectual properties and interests.

[PBS Poll-435]

46. Prove it.

Survey USA is NOT a public company.

[Boz]

47. Any longer......It was bought out as a private interest in 2001

[PBS Poll-435]

48. Still looking for proof...

[BklnDem75]

32. Except for the Penn Primary

InsiderAdvantage 04/21 - 04/21 712 LV 49 42 Clinton +7.0

Zogby 04/20 - 04/21 675 LV 51 41 Clinton +10.0

Rasmussen 04/20 - 04/20 722 LV 49 44 Clinton +5.0

Suffolk 04/19 - 04/20 600 LV 52 42 Clinton +10.0

PPP (D) 04/19 - 04/20 2338 LV 46 49 Obama +3.0

Strategic Vision (R) 04/18 - 04/20 1200 LV 48 41 Clinton +7.0

Quinnipiac 04/18 - 04/20 1027 LV 51 44 Clinton +7.0

SurveyUSA 04/18 - 04/20 710 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0

Final Results - - 54.6 45.4 Clinton +9.2


Where 5 other polls did a better job.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

[PBS Poll-435]

49. In what metric? They had his number within 1.4 points.

Suffolk was off 3.4

Zogby was off 4.4

SUSA was only off 1.4

And PPP... Well PeoplePollingPoodles was off yet again by a huge margin.

[zulchzulu]

8. The Democratic nominee is picked through delegate count

North Carolina has 115 delegates up. Obama will get at least 70 of them. Clinton may get 40 or so. Obama will add to his lead by 30 more delegates. If Clinton wins Indiana by 5%, she will get perhaps 40 delegates to Obama's 30+ delegates, which are 72 in total.

The bottom line is that Obama will get another 35 or more delegates to add to his insurmountable lead to Clinton. It will continue to show that Obama IS the nominee and that it's Clinton that needs to face facts that she lost.

Obama will have about 1,800+ delegates to Clinton's 1,375. Game. Over.

[thewiseguy]

9. I looked at the crosstabs. This poll is bs.

Hillary leads Obama by 18 among democrats? LOL

Hillary leads Obama among early voters? LOL

I mean come on folks. Early voting numbers favored Obama and this poll sounds like a joke to me.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Survey USA Has Been The Most Accurate Poll This Primary Season

[MadBadger]

10. I read somewhere that Indiana doesnt allow automated polls to be done

If so, that would change the way SUSA does their polls.

[thewiseguy]

11. She is getting 21 of the AA vote. Seriously this poll is a joke!

[democrattotheend]

13. Maybe

But is it possible that Obama denouncing Wright hurt him among African American voters?

[MadBadger]

14. Nah, dont he'll still get 90 percent.

The only place denouncing Wright could hurt him is in Chicago I think.

[thewiseguy]

17. And only 3% of the respondents said they had voted early!

And among the early voters Hillary leads by 19 points! Thats just a bad joke.

[corkhead]

43. AA? Alcoholics Anonymous?

[PBS Poll-435]

12. WAHOO!!!

She might even do better than she did in PA!

:woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:




Indiana voters: DO NOT FORGET YOUR PHOTO ID.

[BlueIdaho]

15. I suspect she'll win but it will be single digits. Too little too late.

[ProSense]

19. "Clinton has never polled lower than 52%, Obama has never polled higher than 43%."

So Wright had no impact?

These polls are becoming ridiculous: Obama has been damaged, make that, there's no change, then again he's ahead.

One thing is clear from this poll, nothing has changed in SUSA polling.

[mmonk]

20. The popular vote?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Survey USA Has Been The Most Accurate Poll This Primary Season

[thewiseguy]

22. Well they are going to be very wrong this time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. How Wrong?

I predict the spread is between six and ten percent which would make their prediction a respectable one...

[thewiseguy]

26. This will be much closer than anyone thinks.

[noisyanimal]

24. Either SUSA or Zogby will be embarassed

We'll see who. I have a feeling Zogby, whose brother has called for Hillary to withdraw, will be proved to have lied.

[GoesTo11]

25. Say hello to our next president!

[Zynx]

27. I have an easier time believing an average of this and the Suffolk Poll

than Zogby given the state's demographics, history, and politics.

[jefferson_dem]

29. SUSA routinely has a larger lead for Hillary than other polls. She was up by 16 in mid-April.

Hillary +2, Obama -1 since last poll.

We'll see who's right...tomorrow.

http://www.pollster.com/08-IN-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[aquarius dawning]

30. If she can hold him in NC and pull off a 10 point win in Indiana, it will be a disaster for Obama

Especially considering that the West Virginia and Kentucky primaries are right around the corner and he's projected to lose big time there. I see the potential to erase his delegate lead and to seize the momentum going into the convention.

[democrattotheend]

34. She can't overcome his delegate lead, even with MI & FL

But I agree with you that losing NC and losing IN by double digits would be really bad for Obama, especially with West Virginia and Kentucky coming right afterwards. If she wins most of the later primaries, including NC and Oregon, I think she could make a credible case to the SD's about buyer's remorse. But I don't see any way she gets the nomination without putting him on the ticket.

[Beausoir]

31. She should just quit! LOL.

[my2cent]

33. No she wont

:thumbsdown: go hillary:woohoo: :woohoo: :applause:

[my2cent]

35. wow, this is good news

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:
:applause: :applause: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[Prophet 451]

36. Interesting but probably irrelevant

Barring the collapse of Obama's campaign, there is no mathematical way she can enter the convention with more pledged delegates and would therefore find it near-impossible to convince the superdelegates to back her (as said, absent some catastrophe in Obama's campaign).

As for the disputed states, Florida could be inserted pretty much "as-is" which would probably make some difference but not enough. Michigan is an impossibility since Obama wasn't on the vote and the Clinton campaign has ruled out anything which would diminish her delegates from that primary i.e. her campaign has ruled out a revote which would be the only fair way of settling things (in that regard, it is Hillary, not Obama, who is disenfranchising Michigan voters). Also, since she signed off on the rules that removed those states and is now trying to reverse course for the sole reason that she needs those delegates, including Michigan would be widely seen (rightly, in my view) as rewarding a candidate simply for whining.

[lojasmo]

38. Clinton needs %70 of the vote in IN to become competitive.

These numbers don't bode well for Clinton.

[Hoof Hearted]

39. Woooo Hooooo! THREE CHEERS FOR THE ~LADY~ . . . . Obama himself

said the election would depend on Indiana.

Damn those words!

[futureliveshere]

41. Well..good for her, though I doubt this. I think she will win, but it will be 4-5 points.

[oldhickory1767]

44. Obama will do better with blacks, but so will Hillary with whites

No way Obama gets 38% of the white vote. That's the only thing keeping him afloat really. Hillary will get more of the white vote, Obama more of the black vote, and the final tally should be a 10-12 win for Hillary in Indiana.