Clinton Leads Obama in New Nationwide Poll, USA (51% to 44%)

[BooScout]

Clinton is at 51% to Obama's 44%

Obama is sinking fast.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aeUjiGIoGixc&refer=us

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by 7 percent in a new nationwide poll of party voters, USA Today reported.

The USA Today/Gallup survey was taken after the controversy reignited over comments by Obama's former pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, the newspaper said. Illinois Senator Obama led New York Senator Clinton by 10 points in support nationwide in a similar poll two weeks ago, USA Today said.

The new poll marks the first time that Clinton has been ahead in three months. Clinton also was seen as the stronger Democrat to beat John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential candidate, by 5 percent points, USA Today said.

The USA Today/Gallup nationwide poll, conducted May 1-4, included 516 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, the newspaper said. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, USA Today said.

[SharonRB]

1. Then how do you explain this?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106981/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-Clinton-45.aspx

Today's latest Gallup tracking poll has Barack back up by 4%. According to this, the trend line is going up for him, not down.

[BooScout]

3. It's dated May 4th...

And if you can read the OP says its USA Today/Gallup Poll.

[SharonRB]

5. Okay -- let's see today's new poll when it comes out

The trend line is going up, though, and I'll bet today's new one has him even higher.

[RiverStone]

32. Yep. Today Obama is ahead by 5 points on Gallup

:hi:

[TBF]

2. They polled 516 people - what a joke.

[nolabels]

9. Done by Bloomberg (owned by NYC's billionaire mayor) can you say New York-centric?

:shrug:

[TBF]

10. Right, so Bloomberg polled 516 NYers and they want their senator to win. Who the hell cares.

[BooScout]

11. Can you say wrong?

It's a Bloomberg report on a USA Today/Gallup poll.........last I checked USA Today was owned by Gannett.

[TBF]

12. Again 516 people. Fine, Hillary can have her 516 people. It's still ridiculous to call

that a viable sample.

[Hoof Hearted]

35. I take it you've never taken a statistics class.

[Bill McBlueState]

19. so the margin of error is 4%

It's typically 3% in a national poll, so that's not too bad.

[frickaline]

20. then why does it say in the article that the margin of error is 5% ?

[Bill McBlueState]

22. if they used the usual method to calculate m.o.e.

They would have gotten 4.4%. They probably did that and rounded up to 5% to be safe.

[sfam]

4. Why on earth do any of you still care about these polls?

Has anything they've ever said in this election cycle held any water for any period of time? Um, NO. It's clear that the polls are a waste of time this go-around. They can't nail the right percentages of people, and the answers they receive bare little resemblance to the final totals.

Give it a rest, already...

[SharonRB]

6. I actually agree with you

The polls don't mean much -- they change by the minute or from poll to poll. The only poll that really means anything will be the actual voting results.

[Hoof Hearted]

17. Um, you're pretty worked up over something you don't care about, aren't you?

Breathe. It's going to be OK.

[BooScout]

29. It would be fine if Obama was ahead in this poll....

Trust me........whenever there's a poll with Obama in the lead.......it's taken as the gospel truth but if it's Clinton.........the poll must be statistically flawed.:eyes:

[frickaline]

7. 516 people polled AND 5% margin of error? I think I could do a better poll myself.

seriously, is that a normal MOE ?

[Bill McBlueState]

21. moe

Margin of error is just 1/sqrt(sample size)

1/sqrt(516) = 0.044, or 4.4%

Usually in a national poll, they survey 1000 people for a margin of error of 1/sqrt(1000) = 0.03, or 3%

So this is less precise than a typical national poll, but not by much. I suspect they called around 1000 people and got 516 Democrats.

[frickaline]

23. i see ... thx

[featherman]

8. And CBS/NYT has Obama up 12 nationally - go figure

[cliffordu]

13. Yay!!! IT's almost over!! He's tanking!! I'm not afraid!!!

She'll protect us from th' evildoers!!!



I'm super cereal!!!!11!!11


:crazy:

[Cheap_Trick]

27. you're a HUGH, UNIFORMED MORAN!

that is all.

[cliffordu]

34. OH, NOES!11!!!!11!! SEND MONEYs FAST!!!

She ned the moneys!!!!!11!11

I amd speerious!!11!!!

[rodeodance]

14. YOU GO HILLARY~~

[rodeodance]

15. THANK and REC ~~ for the gal.

[Hoof Hearted]

16. This bodes VERY well for the contests tomorrow. GO HILLARY!

[SharonRB]

18. Today's new Gallup tracking poll is up now -- Obama now up by 5%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107014/Gallup-Daily-Democrats-Tied-Record-12th-Day.aspx

[oasis]

24. Wright's aroma "clings" to Obama. (eom)

[Bill McBlueState]

25. Thing is,

National polls are irrelevant in determining the nominee. It's all about the delegates, and Obama's lead in the pledged delegates is getting to be difficult to overcome.

It's a little weird that our system uses an amalgamation of state-by-state election results collected over five months, but that's how it works for now.

[Cheap_Trick]

26. Then why is she still LOSING?

she can't catch up. SHE HAS LOST. Move on. Get over it. Pop a Zoloft. Deal with it. Or don't.

[PVnRT]

28. What relevance does a national poll have at this point?

There are only a few states left to assign delegates, and then the superdelegates get to make up their minds. This poll means absolutely nothing, especially since there is nothing in it about how either fare against McSame.

[jefferson_dem]

30. HEADS UP: This POLL is of Democratic identifiers not likely voters.

Poll Confusion Made Less Confusing
05 May 2008 12:53 pm

Reader Cristine Barbour, a political scientist at Indiana University, notices that the USA Today/Gallup poll sampled its wares from Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, NOT likely voters, which is the universe from which the CBS News / New York Times poll was derived.

In fact, the CBS/NYT poll also has Clinton up (well, tied -- 45 to 44) among its sample of Democratic identifiers (registered voters who vote Democratic with leaners pushed), with Obama leading among likely voters. So the divergence is artificial (although still interesting).

Obviously, the much larger pool of Democratic identifiers is more of a weathervane sample, apt to support Clinton when the noise is unfavorable for Obama and vice versa. The smaller likely voter samples suggest that Obama is much more durable among those who have or will bother to show up at the polls.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/poll_confusion_made_less_confu_1.php

[BooScout]

31. Heaven forbid they should poll Democrats....

What will the evil ones do next? :eyes:

[jefferson_dem]

33. Heaven forbid someone point out why these results might differ from others...

What are you - like ten years old?