********INSIDE THE NC & IN POLLS: An Obama SWEEP is now on the table*****************

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

Far from a done deal, but not out of the question now, is an Obama sweep tomorrow.

NC:
I know some posters are trumpeting the new Insider Advantage poll in NC showing a smaller gap than the other polls, but keep in mind that Insider Advantage had Clinton ahead last week--the only poll to put her in front in NC.

I think Obama is ahead in NC by all reasonable indicators. I also don't believe Clinton's support is weakening in NC, though. In fact, I think she could possibly close the gap to 6% or so, and would've possibly closed it further were it not for early voting in NC (see below these poll results for more on this).

Here's NC by the numbers the last four days or so to get an idea of trends across polls, with the most recent polls first:
5/4, Insider Advantage: Obama 48, Clinton 45
5/3-4 Public Policy: Obama 53, Clinton 43
5/3-4, Zogby: Obama 48, Clinton 40
5/2-3, Zogby: Obama 48, Clinton 39
5/1-2, Zogby: Obama 46, Clinton 37
5/1, Rasmussen: Obama 49, Clinton 40
5/1, Insider Advantage: Obama 49, Clinton 44

Of note: all four pollsters have Obama ahead, and both I.A. and Zogby suggest minor movement toward Clinton, but likely not a win.

Predictive wrenches in NC now include the massive early voting drive I mentioned above. In Obama strongholds in Greensboro, Charlotte, and Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, there has been a ton of early voting. Likewise in Fayetteville, home to military bases, where war-weary families might break for the candidate who never supported the war...or might make some other calculation. How pollsters weigh Charlotte-Meckelenberg, with its 900% increase in early voting, or Fayettville, with its 600% increase in early voting, obviously will affect the accuracy of their numbers. However, at this point nearly 400,000 people have voted early in the democratic primary in NC, and across the board, the democratic electorate breaks down like this in the two main key competing demographics: 40% African American, 33% white women. Http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com/ suggests this translates conservatively into a 56-44 Obama lead going into tomorrow. It's no wonder Bill Clinton's on an 11-stop tour through the state today to try to turn out the rural white vote on Election Day. He'll generate some TV coverage of course, but the problem will be that much of the light-touch small-town newspaper coverage he generates will come in papers delivered while people are already on the way to the booth tomorrow. (Bill Clinton's actual campaign events in NC themselves do not draw many people.)

Now INDIANA, which is a tougher call. There, only Zogby has Obama ahead, and though Zogby wasn't too bad in PA (nailed the margin), it's certainly hard to put the predictive eggs all in Zogby's basket, especially when Suffolk shows Clinton up 6 and Suffolk likewise nailed the margin in PA. Here's IN by the numbers the last few days, most recent polls first:
05/03 - 05/04, Suffolk: Clinton 49, Obama 43
05/03 - 05/04, Zogby: Clinton 42, Obama 44
05/02 - 05/03, Zogby: Clinton 41, Obama 43
05/01 - 05/02, Zogby: Clinton 42, Obama 43
04/30 - 05/01, Zobgy: Clinton 42, Obama 42
04/30 - 05/01, Insider Advantage: Clinton 47, Obama 40
One glaring issue with the Suffolk Poll is that a whopping 53% of its respondents are 56 years old and up, and only 11% are under 36. If that actually does represent turnout, then surely Clinton will win. Note, though, the smallest bit of movement toward Obama over the last few days in Zogby's polls, which might suggest support hardening for him ever so slightly. Advanced word from Insider Advantage on their latest poll in Indiana, to be released today, is that their new poll likely will also confirm some weakening in Clinton's support in that state.

Predictive wrenches in IN that could influence voters enough to affect outcome and/or make pollsters look silly:
1. Last minute fear/smear, as in OH/TX (3AM) and PA (bin Laden). Will it happen, or has Clinton really called off the dogs?
2. There's a very slight trend toward an MSM consensus on a meme labeling Clinton's gas tax holiday as pandering.
3. Indiana's new voter ID law is sure to baffle college students who show up with their college IDs, some of which won't count as ID, as well as the older crowd.
3. Rush L.'s dittoheads voting for Hillary, who have influenced the vote by 2-4% in PA and TX according to this site:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/indiana-toss-up-but-tilts-clinton.html
4. Early voting. It has been very strong in IN counties expected to break for Obama, but as a whole nothing like the statewide turnout in NC.


In short, the money's still on a Tuesday split, with Obama netting more delegates on the day between IN and NC, BUT a sweep no longer looks out of the question.

Obama 08

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/indiana-toss-up-but-tilts-clinton.html
http://www.pollster.com/08-IN-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
http://www.pollster.com/08-NC-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com/

[WA98296]

1. Fingers crossed for Obama...by the way, love your avatar! (:

[sfam]

2. Again I ask, how is poll watching any better than cloud watching?

Both have the same predictive qualities in this election cycle. Bottom line, the polls tell you less than something, as you tend to believe they are somewhat accurate. I have yet to see that they are. Merely averaging a bunch of false results doesn't boost my confidence either.

Is it too much to say that we really don't know what the results will be tomorrow?

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

25. No,

it is not too much to say that we really don't know what the results will be tomorrow, but polls do have SOME predictive quality to them. For me, I'm more interested in how they move with or against news cycles. Also, like clouds, sometimes they turn into dogs or ponies.

[tekisui]

43. Obama Camp's leaked memo expects Obama to win both!

THey've only gotten it wrong once. They got the losses in PA, TX, OH right.

[otohara]

48. I'm Waiting Patiently & Not Watching TV

until tomorrow when the polls close.

[npincus]

3. Please, please... let it be!

Then we can get to work on Grandpa!

[sfam]

4. Are you speaking words of wisdom? If so, Mother Mary comes to us and says that polls are useless...

Beatles reference for those younger folk...

[crankychatter]

5. k/r nt

:-)

[Lucky 13]

6. Thank you for your hard work putting this analysis together.

From your lips to God's ears. Little left to do now but sit back and pray...

[tabasco]

7. I hope to God it happens.

Gallup had some really frightening numbers out today.

This full-on corporate media attack on Obama is a disgusting sight to behold.

They have dropped the facade and gone into full attack mode.

[Stop Cornyn]

8. K & R #5

[faithfulcitizen]

9. The voter ID law will also negatively impact the inner city AA communities as well.

[doublethink]

10. Thank's for noting this on the Indiana Suffolk Poll ......

One glaring issue with the Suffolk Poll is that a whopping 53% of its respondents are 56 years old and up, and only 11% are under 36 -snip-

Go Obama !!!

[MarjorieG]

11. Reminder: Purged AA's from rolls-millions-and 1/4 from Gary.

Also, factor in the 40 plus mayors, leaders, etc, coerced by Bayh to come out for Clinton (and his VP hopes). Most wanted to stay neutral. Will they pull a Rendell, and suppress the votes?

[faithfulcitizen]

18. Bayh effect in my district: my county chair doesn't publish Obama rallies, only Clinton ones.

It's truly pathetic, the arm-twisting Bayh is requiring in order to deliver Indiana for Hillary. I've sent several e-mails for Obama events to my chair, and NOTHING. I finally wised up and sent the next big Indy rally to a long-time member I know who is anti-war and former Dean supporter. Voila- 2 minutes my chair sends the rally info our to the whole county! It's disgustingly obvious.

[futureliveshere]

12. Thanks for the great work putting this together. Lets hope for an Obama sweep.. K&R

[malik flavors]

13. Interesting analysis. We shall see. As long as wins N.C. I think he'll be alright.

[Frank Booth]

14. I'm not getting excited.

I think it'll be closer than we expect in NC, and Hillary will win by more than we expect in Indiana.

Hillary's got the political machinery working for her in both states. Remember how important this was for her in Penn and Ohio. And Obama won big in Wisconsin after getting the governor's endorsement.

Hillary's campaign has done a much better job of setting expectations. If she loses NC by 4 points and wins Indiana by 8 points (which are my guesses), the media will hype it as a huge victory for HRC. The real winner will be John McCain, just like with Pennsylvania.

[faithfulcitizen]

19. Yes, imagine how well he might do if elected Dems actually supported the candidate the *people* want

[Fire_brand]

15. I lived in Indiana

I don't see him winning there

[flpoljunkie]

16. Interesting Obama will have a Get Out the Vote Rally tonight in Indianapolis with Stevie Wonder

http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/indianapolis

Barack Obama in Indianapolis, IN

Join Barack Obama at a rally in Indianapolis on Monday, May 5th.
Get Out The Vote Rally with Barack Obama
with a Special Guest Performance by Stevie Wonder

American Legion Mall
N. Meridian St. and E. North St.
Indianapolis, IN

Monday, May 5th, 2008
Gates Open: 7:30 p.m.

The event is free and open to the public. Tickets are not required, but an RSVP is strongly encouraged. Admission is on a first-come, first-served basis.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

24. excellent.

[powergirl]

17. Whew! That is a lot of information and an excellent post

That sums up everything for me and I thank you for taking the time to edit and cull this information into a readable format. I am hoping for big wins for Obama manana.:toast:

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

20. ************UPDATE: READING THE SUSA POLL in INDIANA*******

SUSA has a new poll that puts the race in Indiana at Clinton 54, Obama 42. Of Note:

1. It's a three-day poll, ending yesterday. Although it could represent where the electorate stands today, most of this polling is already at least two days old, before the gas tax holiday began to get much negative play.
2. SUSA typically underestimates Obama's support, although they did NOT underestimate it in PA.
3. This poll seems to show reasonable breakdowns by age, seems to have undersampled African Americans a TAD, and seems to have sizeably undersampled early voters (3% of its sample size, compared to 13% for Zogby, which better reflects the electorate).

My guess is that despite any problems with the SUSA poll, Indiana might not be as tight as Zogby shows. Still waiting on I.A.'s Indiana poll today to see if Clinton actually might be weakening there.

[clevbot]

21. KICK!

[TragedyandHope]

22. Yes we can!

[Innocent Smith]

23. A split is likely

Indiana to Clinton and NC to Obama.

Looks like the Wright issue has become a non-issue -- at least as far as the primary goes. I can see a swift-boat type group bringing it up in the GE, but not being effective with it as the original swift-boaters were.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

26. UPDATE: ARG has 8 point leads for Obama and Clinton in NC and IN respectively, polling 5/2-4.

More support for the notion of a split, with Obama netting more delegates on the day due to NC's larger size, but both polls are behind the new news cycle on the gas-tax-holiday-as-pandering story. Both polls suggest very slight weakening of support in week-over-week polls for the lead candidate (but within the MOE).

Still waiting on the 5/4 poll from I.A., which is supposed to show that "Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp,”to be released today.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

[meow mix]

27. K&R

im hopin

[DemGa]

28. Fingers crossed for an upset in N.C. - Clinton taking both would be SWEET!!

[gbrenna]

29. We are looking at the possiblility of an Obama sweep

Clinton will not take Carolina...it's pretty clear that the Clinton campaign is having to spend money to try to keep Indiana otherwise she would be in Carolina trying to lower his voter margins. In my opinion, the best she can hope for is a split. I can not understand why Sen. Clinton is still in the race, she can not win legitimately-if she won by stealing the election essentially then get used to 'Pres. McCain'.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

30. *********BREAKING: INDIANA MOVEMENT TO OBAMA CONFIRMED***********

The day's long-awaited Insider Advantage Poll confers movement toward Obama, who now trails Clinton in Indiana by only 4%, which is within the MOE. That's a 3% smaller gap than three days ago. This poll mirrors Zogby's movement toward Obama in Indiana, but Zogby has him up by a couple of points there. All polling for I.A. was done yesterday only, making it the most recent poll we have in Indiana.

caveat: I.A. also shows movement toward Clinton in NC. See the OP about early voting in NC to see why NC still looks like a lock for Obama, though, anyway.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_55_381.aspx




ed for accuracy

[jefferson_dem]

31. Obama with 80% of the AA vote and 16% undecided.

:wow:

How can they square that with their AA numbers in NC?

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/Indiana%20crosstabs.pdf

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

32. that's an excellent catch. IN could be really tight.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

34. also assumes AA turnout will mirror the AA electorate. I think AA turnout will be disproportionally

higher.

[Shine]

33. Wow, way to go Team Obama!

:woohoo:

[Zachstar]

50. That is some GREAT news!

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

35. *****FINAL SUSA in NC still has Obama in front 50-45********

Polling 5/2-4, so most data is two-days old at least. Can't find crosstabs yet, but SUSA has typically underpolled Obama's final support (but did not underpoll his support in PA).

[Hepburn]

36. Gawd to hell and back....

...I hope he shuts out that POS lying Hillary tomorrow.

<see...non-sexist words to slam the bitch....>

[hell-bent]

38. Is your relationship between you and that Scottie

unusual?

[Hepburn]

40. Sorry....

...but the dog thinks you are a very sick person and she has requested that I put you and your sick thoughts on IGNORE.

<click>

[book_worm]

37. Interesting, Thanks.

[phrigndumass]

39. Excellent analysis, dmsRoar!

K/R :thumbsup:

[hell-bent]

41. He seems to be in serious retrograde momentum,no?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[Bucky]

42. By "sweep" do you mean one win and one loss?

I won't cheer up, not until Thanksgiving.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

54. sweep=possible split=more likely

[NJSecularist]

44. This post is cherrypicking and selective interpretation at its finest....n/t

[FedoraLV]

45. Thank you for the updates! /nt

[shadowknows69]

46. That would pretty effectively end this thing. Keeping my fingers crossed.

[jazzjunkysue]

47. HRC on CNN now: Looks like she knows it's over.

I've always had a pretty good B.S. meter, and there are tell tale signs when someone is fibbing, or at least scared.

She's both.

She's tipping her head sideways when she talks. Her smile is forced. And the hyper-pandering is a dead give away. She's not sounding or looking like someone who's holding her ground. She's on the way down this slope, and she's scared and angry.

She's brittle: Like someone who is bracing for the big, big, disappointment. The big scary monster in the closet.

She knows she's done. It's all over her face.

[Zachstar]

49. Have you looked at the early Chapters of "Red Storm Rising" ?

This may be all just a ploy to try to fool us so that we are shocked when she wins by a few points.

We need to be prepared for her to Win Indiana which will likely mean this will go until June.

[jazzjunkysue]

52. Entirely possible, but, she'll go on as the obvious loser, as the delegates

go to Barack.

She keeps calling this a game changer. I think she knows the pressure is mounting.

This is a total political animal, and all political animals will negotiate to survive for another day.

I thinks she's getting close. I really do.

[rainbow4321]

53. I think she decided before this past weekend..her Guam concession speech showed it

(Or it has been decided for her by the HRC camp--they finally broke thru her wall of denial??)

I noticed her post-Guam announcement congratulating Obama was worded funny. Others in the thread noted it, also...she (paraphrased) said voters from Philly to Dededo (Guam village) have had their say in what kind of leader that they want..something like that. It was noted here that Obama won Philly so why the hell was she referring to it? He got more votes in that village, also.
Why not pick cities/states that she won in her concession speech?
It was just a very oddly worded statement.

Here, I found it:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5803465&mesg_id=5803465

While our campaign was dramatically outspent, we had an impressive grassroots-oriented effort. With the help of dedicated volunteers, thousands of people became energized by the idea of a brighter future for all Guamanians. Today's results further demonstrate that voters from Philadelphia to Dededo want a leader who will take swift action to get our nation back on track. I will be that President.

[yodermon]

55. I think the Supers do not want to come out and PWN her.

It would look very bad. They want her to concede/drop out so she can save face. THEN the SD's will announce, maybe en masse.

[Scurrilous]

51. K & R

:thumbsup: