Brand New West Virginia Rasmussen Poll - Hillary: 56, Obama: 27

[NJSecularist]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/west_virginia/west_virginia_democratic_presidential_primary

When the voting is finished in Indiana and North Carolina, the Democratic Primary competition will move to West Virginia on May 13. That’s a competition Hillary Clinton will be looking forward to with eager anticipation. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows that Clinton attracts 56% of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Obama is supported by 27%. Seventeen percent (17%) are not sure.

Those results are virtually identical to an earlier election poll conducted in mid-March.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 72% of West Virginia’s Primary Voters, Obama by 48%. Clinton’s numbers are unchanged while Obama’s ratings have dropped five percentage points.

Clinton will need a big victory in West Virginia to help bolster her talking point about winning the most popular votes. While Obama supporters dismiss this talking point as meaningless, it will be repeated many times in the coming weeks and months. Still, the former First Lady has but one path to the nomination—stay close and hope that Obama makes a mistake.

In West Virginia, 72% say they’re at least somewhat likely to vote for Clinton over McCain in the general election. However, only 56% say they’re somewhat or very likely to vote for Obama.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) have followed recent news stories about Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say it’s likely that Obama shares some of Wright’s controversial views. Those figures are similar to the national average for all voters, not Democrats.

Go Hill! You can get up to 60% and possibly 70%. :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[bowens43]

1. to little too late

[NJSecularist]

15. Keep telling yourself that.

Hillary needs to win the popular vote and she will win the nomination.

[MarjorieG]

18. If caucus states were translated to popular vote wins, Obama WAY ahead.

[Leftist Agitator]

30. No, you see, there are these things called "pledged delegates"...

And your Queen is way, WAY behind by that measure, which is, incidentally, the only measure that counts.

Did you eat too many paint chips as a kid or something?

:eyes:

[K8-EEE]

2. 57% say Obama shares some of Wright's controversial views =

57% polled were morans.

Seriously, this matters HOW? She already lost on the delegates, these primaries (and the dumbass "Rev. Wright Concerned" contingent in them) don't even matter.

[Hope And Change]

3. I`TS OVER!

[Robbins]

6. This Is not news

Every Obama supporter knows full well she will win big In West Virginia and Kentuckey.These will be
the equvelent of Arkansas and Oklahoma.Democrats here are more conservative.Race Is a factor but It Is not the only factor.

[cali]

4. too bad that WV only has 27 pledged delegates.

Even if she wins by 30 it benefits her very little unless she makes it within a couple of points in NC or wins there- and that's pretty clearly not in the cards. She might pick up 18 or even 20 delegates but she'll still be over 100 behind. She just doesn't have the time or the space to overtake him. And if obama wins by 10 or so tomorrow in NC and keeps it within 5 or 6 in IN, have fun counting all the pledged delegates he picks up before WV even gets to vote.

[Cali_Democrat]

5. Frankly I'm shocked Obama even has 27% support in that state

Lets not kid ourselves about the demographics in that state.

[rocktivity]

7. If Hillary doesn't get 69% of North Carolina AND Indiana

She'll need AT LEAST 69% of West Virginia AND Kentucky just to keep running in place.

:headbang:
rocknation

[greguganus]

8. Well it is Robert Byrd country. n/t

[MojoMojoMojo]

9. Wow

[gcomeau]

10. While I'm sure you're excited, you have no reason to be.

Give her 100% in West Virginia, she still can't catch Obama. When is this going to sink in?

[NJSecularist]

12. When is it going to sink that Obama has not won anything yet? n/t

[gcomeau]

14. Only in the sense...

...that the football team up by 50 with 2 minutes remaining hasn't won yet. That being the meaningless, semantic sense. Yes, maybe the opposing team could develop astounding magical superhuman powers that allow them to somehow score 6 touchdowns and a field goal in 120 seconds... in some hypothetical fantasy land somewhere... just like maybe Hillary really could win every single remaining state by mind bogglingly larger margins than she has won ANY state by to date, including here own HOME states.

It isn't happening. So celebrate a West Virginia win all you like if it makes you feel better, but it's the celebration of that team down by 50 who managed to at least close out the game with a score. And we all know it.

[MarjorieG]

19. Kitchen sink take downs should not determine, when blips temporary.

Hillary does not have the reserve of trust.

[elocs]

11. "Those results are virtually identical to an earlier election poll conducted in mid-March."

This is a big surprise and news now, in May?

[Jersey Devil]

13. If she wins WV 65-35 she gains all of 8 delegates

Big whoop!

[berni_mccoy]

16. Damn! That's a divide. Gotta hand it to Clinton. She sure won over the WV Dems.

[Texas Hill Country]

17. thats pretty brutal

[mrreowwr_kittty]

20. Who cares? WV went big for Bush in 2004 and will do the McSame in 2008

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/WV/P/00/index.html

30% of Dems voted for Dumbya in that state. That's Hillary's base, right there. Guess what? They're voting for McCain in the general, either way.

[NJSecularist]

23. No they aren't. Bill won the state in 1992 and 1996.

A special kind of Democratic can win that state. Hillary is that type of Democrat. She will win the state if she is the nominee.

50% of the electorate is Democrat and Hilary will keep most of their votes if she is the nominee. If Obama is the nominee, Obama will lose possibly 40% of registered Democrats in that state.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

34. Bill Clinton won in 92 because Ross Perot split GHWB's vote.

1996, he won pretty good, fair enough. But then Al Gore got spanked by Bush in 2000 and Kerry did even worse than that in 2004.

Hillary is no Bill and even if she's "special" enough to win WV (and she's not - she will lose to McCain there), she's not "special" enough to get back the A/A and young voters across the country that she will lose if she slimes her way into the nomination.

Catering to the 25% of the country who are bigots is not a good strategy for Democrats.

[NJSecularist]

36. WV is full of bigots?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

More unity, hope and change from the Obamites!

Bill would have won West Virginia in 1992 regardless of Ross Perot.

[Hepburn]

37. I grew up in Ohio....and I know WV fairly well....

...yes, it tends to be full of people who do not exactly like AAs.

Apparently you think racism is funny....I don't. It is a sick mind set...that your candidate and her ilk are promoting.

Shame on you....

[NJSecularist]

39. I go to school in WV, tough guy.

I am well aware of how West Virginia is.

And there are racists in WV, just like any state. But to brand the whole state as a bunch of racists is disingenious and dishonest.

I've spent more time in WV than you ever will. You have no clue what you are talking about.

[Bill McBlueState]

55. I've lived a couple different places in Ohio

I grew up on the river across from WV, and I went to college with a bunch of Clevelanders in northern Ohio.

Let me tell you, if hillbillies and suburban Clevelanders were having a "who's-more-racist" contest, they'd have to go to double overtime.

Racists are everywhere.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

54. There are bigots in every state, including New Jersey.

Some states happen to have more of them.

My paternal grandfather's family harkens from WV. Yes, the state is full of bigots.

And yes, Bill Clinton won in '92 because of Perot. Every, and I mean every, Perot supporter I knew at the time was a white, conservative male. Perot siphoned off 22% of the WM vote in '92 and 11% in '96. So it's highly likely that his presence helped Clinton overall in '96.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

38. Hillary is not Bill.

She doesn't have his charisma or charm, and this isn't the '90s anymore.

[WVRevy]

56. We have an expression in this state

That being, you are as full of shit as a Christmas turkey.

No woman and no black man is going to win this state anytime soon. That's just the way it is. I'm doing my part to try to change that, but it isn't happening between now and November.

[SwampG8r]

58. A special kind of Democratic can win that state

yep
a pandering race baiting kind can win it

[PBS Poll-435]

25. Why?

A state with Democratic representation in the House and two Democratic Senators and a consistant Democratic Presidential record pre-Gore should not be thrown under the bus so quickly.

[NJSecularist]

26. Not to mention a Democratic governor and a Democratic legislature.

A Gore, Obama or Kerry kind of Democrat cannot win West Virginia, but Hillary can and Bill did.

[PBS Poll-435]

31. Can you imagine the turnout among women if Clinton makes it to the GE?

[NJSecularist]

32. Turnout among women will increase if Hillary wins the nomination and she'll win the white women vote

Unlike Kerry, who lost it by 10 points.

[Hola]

40. O RLY?

How does Clinton differ from Gore or Kerry? They are the same, in fact Clinton's record is even more radical. You may remember that Bill Clinton only won 36% of the 'White Male' vote in 1996. Obama does better than that.

[PBS Poll-435]

42. Radical? More "Radical" than Gore or Kerry? I thought Clinton was Pub-Lite.

You really need to get your talking points in order.

[democrattotheend]

21. Yeah, he's going to get his ass kicked in WV and KY

We've known that for a while. I'm going to WV next weekend to do what I can't...probably won't make much difference, but every bit helps.

[BooScout]

22. Great News K&R

It looks like Obama is sliding off the map.:kick:

[4_Legs_Good]

24. Nice! It'll be her first 2-1 victory since Super Tuesday

And the only other 2-1 she's gotten was Arkansas...

That's in contrast to Obama's 12 or so 2-1 victories!

Way to catch up, Clinton!!!

David

[Name removed]

27. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[WeDidIt]

28. I expect her to have a 20-30 point win in WV

The entire state is Appalachia, and that's definitely Clinton country.

that would make the delegate pickup for Clinton somewhere around 10 delegates.

[rocktivity]

45. Unofortunately, she'll need at least 38 points for a win that really counts.

And not just in WV and KY--in ALL NINE of the remaining contests.

:headbang:
rocknation

[WeDidIt]

59. She needs 61% of ALL remaining delegates to win

Not a very likely scenario.

[Arkansas Granny]

29. My guess is that if Hillary wins or comes close in these last few primaries

the SDs are going to wonder if Obama's winning streak was a flash in the pan and that Hillary is more electable. I wonder if this why so many of them have not declared yet. Are they waiting to get a better idea of how this is going to play out before they make their decision?

[cali]

35. nope. Obama will have to implode. And a flash in the pan

doesn't have a winning streak of 2 months. The SDs are already inclined to go for Obama- even the last couple of weeks demonstrates that. And actually most SDs have declared. In addition, Obama only needs 283 more delegates to get to 2024. He'll pick up at least 80 tomorrow- and that's even if he has a bad day. He'll then need just slightly over 200 delegates to win. In other words, he doesn't need that many SDs to get to 2024. Hillary needs 413 delegates to get there.

[Jersey Devil]

41. Sure, they'll base the Dem nomination on KY & WV, certainly

When pigs fly

[Arkansas Granny]

50. I never claimed that they would base the nomination on those two states.

I do think that they will consider overall electability, however.

[indimuse]

33. get out!

:toast: :woohoo:
:applause: :woohoo:
:applause::bounce:
:woohoo::woohoo:
:applause:

[kennetha]

43. The Key is sweeping tomorrow

If Hillary sweeps tomorrow, then WV will be the final nail in the coffin. Obama will withdraw and beg for the VP slot.

[rocktivity]

47. Hillary can't touch Obama

unless she gets AT LEAST 65% of the vote the rest of the way.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Mass]

44. So, racist states like WV and KY have Obama way down and it is a good thing?

No Democrats should be happy about that. We should be ashamed. (if you do not think it is racism, ask yourself why these are the 2 states where Obama polls lower than 30 %).

[brentspeak]

48. You apparently don't know how to read very well

"Do not post messages that are bigoted against (or grossly insensitive toward) any person or group of people based on their race, gender, sexual orientation, ethnicity, religion, lack of religion, disability, physical characteristics, or region of residence."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/forums/rules_detailed.html

[Mass]

51. How do you call this?

Actually, racist is the polite way to put it.

"Fifty-seven percent (57%) say it’s likely that Obama shares some of Wright’s controversial views."

[SteveM]

52. "Racist states"? With language like that no wonder Dems. have poor luck.

[pdx_prog]

46. I hereby award you a book of tickets

for the clue bus!

They are not voting FOR Clinton......they are voting AGAINST Obama....

[MirrorAshes]

49. yes, lets applaud ignorance and racism! hooray!

"Fifty-seven percent (57%) say it’s likely that Obama shares some of Wright’s controversial views."

GREAT NEWS!!!

:sarcasm:

[BeyondGeography]

53. Her phone banking effort to low information voters there seems to be paying off

[Bill McBlueState]

57. interesting responses

It's apparent in this thread that Clinton supporters aren't the only ones who value Democrats from some states more than Democrats from other states.

[Beacool]

60. Great!!!!!

Come on WV and KY!!!!!!

:bounce: