Gallup Daily: Obama 50% (+1), Clinton 45% (same)

[npincus]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107014/Gallup-Daily-Democrats-Tied-Record-12th-Day.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has a five percentage point edge over Hillary Clinton for the nomination among national Democrats, 50% to 45%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 2-4. This is not a statistically significant lead, but a continuation of the close race seen for nearly two weeks.

Although there have been variations in the gap between Clinton and Obama in recent weeks (for example, Clinton led Obama by four points at one time last week), the two have been statistically tied in national Democratic preferences continuously since Gallup's April 21-23 interviewing -- spanning 12 Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports. This is the longest stretch the two have been tied since tracking began in January -- beating an 11-day streak seen at the start of March. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

Obama won 2,264 votes in Guam's Democratic caucuses on Saturday, May 3, to Clinton's 2,257 votes. It is unclear from Gallup's Sunday tracking results whether Obama's razor-thin 7-vote victory there boosted his candidacy among Democrats nationally. The upcoming Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Indiana on Tuesday are poised to be much more important events in shaping national Democratic perceptions of whether Clinton or Obama should lead the party's ticket for president this fall.

[gateley]

1. Before we know it, it'll be back to a 10 point lead.

GOBAMA!!

[Frank Booth]

2. I expect Obama's post-Guam bounce will last for another 3 weeks at least.

"Obama won 2,264 votes in Guam's Democratic caucuses on Saturday, May 3, to Clinton's 2,257 votes. It is unclear from Gallup's Sunday tracking results whether Obama's razor-thin 7-vote victory there boosted his candidacy among Democrats nationally."