Insider Advantage Poll: close race in NC & IN/ PPP poll: Obama up by 10 in NC Hill up 5 in Ind

[book_worm]

Public Policy Polling (PPP) gives Obama a 10-point lead in NC: 53-43. Obama leads 84-11 among black voters and Clinton leads 60-34 among white voters.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_050608.pdf

In Indiana, PPP shows Obama making a modest gain since their previous poll (50-42), now Clinton is up 51-46. "The main movement since then comes from Obama shoring up his support with black voters. Last week he led 73-21 with them, now the tally is 81-13."

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Indiana_Release_050508.pdf

Insider Advantage Poll numbers:

North Carolina:

Obama: 48.4%
Clinton: 44.5%
Undecided: 7.1%

18-29: 50-43 Obama
30-44: 55-41 Obama
45-64 50-42 Obama
65 Plus 53-39 Clinton

White: 59-33 Clinton
Black: 79-18 Obama

Male: 50-44 Obama
Female: 49-45 Obama

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/Sunday%20NC%20poll.pdf

Indiana:

Clinton: 47.6%
Obama: 44.2%
Undecided 8.2%

18-29: 64-32 Obama
30-44 49-48 Obama
45-64 46-38 Clinton
65-plus: 64-30

Male: 51-45 Obama
Female: 50-39 Clinton

White: 54-41 Clinton
Black: 80-4 Obama

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/Indiana%20crosstabs.pdf

[democrattotheend]

1. Interesting IN numbers

One encouraging sign (maybe) in the Indiana poll is that a lot more blacks than whites remain undecided. That could mean that the undecideds break for him this time, unless Wright hurt his standing among black voters.

These polls strike me as odd though...closer that they should be in both states. I guess I'd be ok with this result...disappointing finish in NC but better than expected in IN. But part of me says he'd be better off if the margin were wider in both places, unless he won IN outright.

[book_worm]

2. Yes, I was just thinking about that.

I think NC will be better than this. All the polls show it tightening with Obama up.

[Zynx]

3. The thing about Indiana is that the black vote is relatively tiny compared to NC.

It's the smallest of any state that's had a primary since Vermont and Rhode Island.

[book_worm]

7. It's about 10-12% of the total vote.

[Zynx]

11. Which refutes nothing I said.

[book_worm]

13. nobody was refuting what you said just giving a percentage.

[MadBadger]

4. I dont trust either.

[Austinitis]

5. I think there's something wrong with both numbers.

But who knows? Polls for the last few days have been all over the place.

[BenDavid]

6. HRC is happy and happy as she was the day before Pa. and that

does not bode well for obama. Not saying she will win N.C. but it will be a lower bargain of win for obama which will make eyes open wider, and HRC doing rather well in the internals of Indiana. So, it should be a good evening for HRC.....and obama is looking for a caucus, anywhere, anyplace...

[book_worm]

8. kick with PPP numbers for NC and IN

[MadBadger]

9. PPP and IA have late deciders going to Obama in Indiana

Obama +4 and Hillary +1 in Both Indiana Polls

[book_worm]

10. I hope it continues.

I think NC will be Obama by 8-10 points in the end (maybe more)--all the polls are consistent he is leading. I think Indiana will come down to turnout and where.

[MadBadger]

12. I just hope its true

Cuz SUSA obviously sees things differently.

[book_worm]

14. They always see things differently.

[MadBadger]

15. They do. And sometimes they are dead on (California), and sometimes they are awful (Missouri)

Hopin for a Missouri.

[Zynx]

16. I will say that their accuracy has been pretty good so far this cycle so I would

have a hard time simply dismissing their results. I don't really care for the predictions game any more myself. We'll have results in about 27 hours and then we'll actually have something we can use.

[jefferson_dem]

17. According to PPP, Obama leads early voting 63/34. Those planning to vote tomorrow are split 46/45.

First, thank goodness for early voting. Almost 500,000 votes are in the bank!

Second, the final spread may actually be wider than reported because early voters (more pro-Obama) have already been cast while those planning to vote tomorrow (more pro-Hillary) may or may not actually do so.

EDIT: This is regarding NC.

[book_worm]

19. That's good. I hope late deciders will go for Obama, too.

[jefferson_dem]

18. NC SUSA POLL: Obama 50 (+1), Hillary 45 (+1)

Obama wins AA vote 85/12, loses white vote 62/32. AA represent 32% of voters. Let's hope it's higher than that.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=06dd4624-776e-440d-811a-79584a511f2f

[IronLionZion]

20. Just want to note that NC has 115 delegates, Indiana has 72.

I'm only saying this because I'm sexist.

[jefferson_dem]

21. Pig!

[IronLionZion]

22. all up in it loving it strong!

you better believe it

[book_worm]

23. I just read that Obama picked up two Maryland supers today--the chairman and vice chairman

of the MD Dem party!!

273 more delegates to go!

[Zachstar]

24. He needs to try to keep her win under 5 in Indiana and try to stretch his win in NC to 15