Clinton refuses to guarantee that she'll stay in until THURSDAY

[geek tragedy]

http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/05/evening-news-roundup-99/

CBS: Clinton promoted/defended her plan, said Obama supported a gas-tax suspension three times in Illinois. Said she’s “making a lot of progress” with superdelegates, but did not guarantee she’ll stay in the race past Tuesday.

[habitual]

1. hmmmm, i suppose it was clever to ask

'do you guarantee that you will stay in the race past tuesday?'

but i'm not sure that she not guaranteeing it really means anything.

although i do think that if she was planning on staying in for sure that she would give a resounding 'hell yah' while knocking down a shot, so maybe there is something to it.

[tekisui]

2. Internals may show a loss in IN.

Which means she is practicing her concession, unity speech now. I have to admit, I will be a little sad when the time finally comes.

[cliffordu]

5. Actually, yes it will be a little sad. She sure has mixed it up good.

Not in any healthy or positive way, but she's been good 'vetting' for Obama.

[tekisui]

13. I came to this acceptance Friday.

She really strengthen Obama, and has helped to bring up the worse that the gop will have. By this fall, Wright et al., will be old news. It won't do anymore damage than is already done. She has helped to dull the gopper's weapons.

Honestly, I think she has made Obama greater, although I have pulled my hair out at times to see it.

[Plasticoburess]

23. Nobody has reported that Clinton's internals have her losing in Indiana

You have no link or source.
Why do you lie?

[Zodiak]

25. There is a difference between a lie and speculation

The post you responded to was clearly speculation.

[2008]

The wording was that she "may" show a loss in IN

That's not a lie

She "may" get 95% of the vote in Indiana, and then promptly and inexplicably drop out of the race

It's a good word. One can use it to "tell the truth" in the most creative ways

[RainDog]

28. did this person get tombstoned after 1 post?

I just clicked to view the profile and *poof*

[JVS]

32. Probably a zombie with an identified IP

[Warren DeMontague]

44. Yeah. Speaking of "lying".

See ya later, ya big phony.

:rofl:

[boppers]

45. We don't accuse each other of being liars.

It's bad form.

[TheDonkey]

54. LMAO! Record time

[TheDoorbellRang]

46. Alas, Plasticoburess, we hardly knew ye

Out, out, brief flame:spray:

[Leopolds Ghost]

51. We are all sparks thrown from a great fire, burning into the night. n/t

[Brundle_Fly]

24. funny that...

me too,

I am sure she'll outrage us again *snif*

[democrattotheend]

40. I'll be sad too

I admit that I am going to be sad if/when she drops out. As a woman, I feel guilty sometimes for not supporting the first woman with a viable shot at the presidency. When she shows her softer side it tugs at my heartstrings sometimes, and I know that I will be sad if she steps aside.

[ecstatic]

52. me too. I fully expected her to be our nominee this time last year

But if she actually concedes tomorrow... it will be so... long overdue yet final.

[MattNC]

3. I can't imagine

her internals show her losing Indiana. I really can't. Maybe it's a BS expectations game move. I don't know.

[geek tragedy]

6. Even if you're planning to drop out, you don't concede the

possibility that you'll drop out.

[VolcanoJen]

18. It's conceivable they'd lower expectations to bolster turnout

But it's odd. Just last week she claimed North Carolina would be "The Game Changer."

This is a strange tack for them to take. Interesting.

[L0oniX]

4. I am throwing a pool party with Corona's if/when she is dragged off the platform.

[NightWatcher]

7. I've rolled the celebratory 'fatty' for when the Bush-Clinton dynasty ends

[tekisui]

14. I will roll one tonight to join you at that time!

A hog leg, as we call it in the mountains.

[JackORoses]

50. that looks like a hogger that Woody's puffin' on in your avatar

[Paulie]

10. So this damn gong sound will finally stop?

Wonderful news!!! My head hurts...

[geek tragedy]

16. Is Bill the Unknown Comic? n/t

[AZBlue]

20. I've got a bottle of champagne waiting for me.

[mmonk]

29. I'll bring the limes and a Jimmy Buffet CD.

[Leopolds Ghost]

53. I'll bring a hunting knife to cut the limes with, man.

On'y problem is there's no limes here... we're in the desert.

You didn't make a deal with him, did you? He stole my white house, man...



One thing I've learned in all my years is: You can turn your back on a Clinton fan, but never turn your back on a Clinton. Especially when she's waving a razor sharp hunting knife in your eye.

[Hippo_Tron]

41. My celebration will be for Obama officially being the presumptive nominee

Victory is sweet enough without gloating.

[L0oniX]

56. We are not gloating ...we are preparing to party.

:evilgrin:

[saltpoint]

8. She's lost the nomination under traditional circumstances and if she

employs the so-called "nuclear option, " she will have lost quite a deal more than that.

I consider the "nuclear option" to be technically, procedurally legitimate, but legitimate in the way that drinking shark blood is legitimate, for those extraordinarily few times in your life when the option presents itself. It's not a first-choice beverage at our house. In fact it's pretty far down the list. In fact it's not on the list at all.

If it shows up in the cooler at the grocery, we're likely to buy something else.

If it bangs on the door demanding entry, we're likely to call the damn cops.

The boys won't let the neighborhood tomgirl in their tree house so she threatens to set fire to the tree.

Someone on that half-ass campaign staff of hers needs to sit the woman down and talk some plain talk. She's behaving poorly at a rate of acceleration even faster than the speed of super delegates leaving her and going to Obama.

If anyone caught Rachel Maddow today, you caught a very good program. This "nuclear option" issue was discussed.

[StevieM]

19. "The nuclear option" is an Obama talking point which the media, of course, has adopted. Hillary has

been saying that Florida and Michigan should be seated for months. She tried to set up new elections but Obama blocked them. So we need to use the original results.

Hillary's position on this is old news. What is new is that as the May 31 date approaches the media has named it "the nuclear option" in order to bolster Obama's position.

Steve

[saltpoint]

21. I'm sorry, but you are incorrect. The option, discussed for a a while now,

is strictly Clinton-generated.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/clinton-camp-considering_n_100051.html

Obama is not to blame for it.

The media are not to blame for it.

Hillary Clinton is to blame for it.

I stand by my post.

[StevieM]

26. It's not a matter of "blame" it's a matter of position. Hillary's position has been that we should

seat the MI and FL delegates. What's new is the labeling: "nuclear option." That is an Obama-driven label in order to make it sound like this is a shocking new thing that Hillary has come up with out of nowhere, so that she can win, rather then her official position ever since Obama blocked the revotes, since he new he would lose those states.

Steve

[saltpoint]

27. The term denotes extreme action, likely il-considered, with extensive

and irretrievable collateral damage.

It is in fact a matter of blame.

Hillary's plan, Hillary's burden, Hillary's position in history.

She's being a bad girl.

[StevieM]

30. Obama's accusations of wrong-doing against her will be laughed out of the history books.

Especially if he gets the nomination, because in order to win her support--and that of her voters--he will have to retract every single smear he launched against her character, starting with his despicable accusations of race-baiting. Until he does that, she shouldn't endorse him. Fortunately, all Obama cares about his winning, so he'll do it.

Hopefully, he won't have the chance. If our part is smart we will nominate Hillary. Obama would make a terrible president. And he isn't even a very nice person.

Steve

[saltpoint]

31. You're on a Clinton-is-a-Victim persecutory delusion tract.

It hasn't played well thus far and I think those historians you reference have already determined that arrogance and bad instincts for the more-modern era of social politics will be the key factors.

Obama ran a wonderful race against Chris Dodd, by the way, but you didn't see Dodd behaving like a 2-year old the way Clinton is.

So I don't subtract from Obama's campaign strategy, which has turned out to be quite solid. It's just that on top of his teams' sure-footedness, her campaign team tripped over itself, burned money like it was going out of style, and were so full of themselves that they didn't bother to put a plan in place post-Feb. 5th. Unbelievable.

[StevieM]

35. Chris Dodd didn't get nearly as many votes as Hillary, and Obama is acting like a two-year old

by attacking her character over differences of opinion. All Hillary is doing is staying in the race and winning votes. If Obama doesn't like it he can get himself 2025 delegates, a few more after the resolution of MI and FL, and win the popular vote (including FL, not including MI). Otherwise we'll see you in Denver.

Steve

[saltpoint]

36. If you want to launch a media slam, and who doesn't, ask why the media

gave Hillary the Inevitable all the attention early on -- and it certainly did -- as opposed to Dodd, and the others in the race.

She blew a huge lead DESPITE media fawning. Had Dodd et al had her advantages, we'd be nominating one of them in Denver.

[StevieM]

42. Ummm...because she was leading in the polls? (eom)

[saltpoint]

43. Sen. Clinton was leading by a huge margin in the polls. Not just

"leading."

She had unlimited name recognition. She had a pile of cash. She had her husband's political celebrity. She had the media fawning over her every hiccup.

She lost it all.

The "nuclear option" referenced would make her the sorest loser in modern political history.

[StevieM]

48. Nope. The race was close in May and then Hillary worked to pull away. She earned new voters

They weren't hers to begin with. Then Obama resorted to a hateful campaign in which he presented her as nothing more then Bill Clinton's wife. And the media carried his talking points, while smearing her left and right. No other candidate could have survived that.

The "nulcear option" is just an Obama talking point--as if she hasn't been saying the same exact thing about FL and MI for months. She tried to hold new elections in FL and MI and Obama blocked them--at that point we had to use the original elections in some way. There is nothing new about this debate, and the fact that we are having it is a product of Se. Obama's willingness to do anything to win, including disenfranchise people in FL and MI by denying them new elections.

As for "sore loser"....my guess is that you will be very unhappy, should Sen. Obama win, when he is forced to retract every single suggestion that he has made declaring that Sen. Clinton behaved as a "sore loser," or "tried to overturn the will of the people," or "was a protector of the status quo," or "engaged in race-baiting." He'll have to retract all of that if he wants to get her endorsement, and she shouldn't endorse him unless he does. Fortunately, Obama will do anything to get elected, so he'll happily admit that the whole basis for his nomination was fraudulent.

Steve

[saltpoint]

49. Steve, you've made a bad call on the Clinton campaign's decision to

go nuclear in this nomination fight.

Why don't you call up your county Democratic organizaiton, arrange to meet with them over a pizza, and ask them how they feel about this.

I wouldn't want you to take my word for it.

As for the polling statistics, you can check any major national polling apparatus you want and you will find individually listed and in aggregate a significant lead for Hillary Clinton over the entire Democratic field. Here's just one source:


_ _ _ _ _

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pres_08_the_democratic_primary.php

Excerpts:

But any sensible reading of these data show that while Sen. Obama has enjoyed a brief flurry of attention and a surge in support, he is far from catching up to the actual front runner, based on the polls, Sen. Clinton, whose most recent polls are over twice as high.
….

Sen. Clinton has easily led the field so far, as any poll reader would know. But there is a bit of a dynamic in her support that has been less remarked upon. While holding at or above 40% throughout 2005 (with one mid-year and two late year exceptions), Sen. Clinton has seen some non-trivial erosion of support through 2006, falling from 40% to 33% support (based on the trend estimate), though rebounding to almost 36% at year's end. That hardly constitutes a collapse, but does suggest that the lead is not immovable. It is also clear that this decline came before "Obama-mania" took hold in late fall. So while Sen. Clinton continues to be the clear "front runner" in the polls, her hold on Democratic support is not entirely solid. Those not satisfied with her as a choice are liable to jump to a seemingly viable alternative, a well known phenomena in presidential primary polling. Sen. Obama's rise in support may provide an example. But the year long decline in support shows that Sen. Clinton must work to secure the nomination, rather than take front runner status for granted.

_ _ _ _ _

Beyond the individual polling archived for 2007, there is also this:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2007-12-17-politics2.htm

-- showing without question that she held the lead for the entire calendar year of 2007 and at most points in that calendar year that lead was substantial.

[cliffordu]

47. LOL.... I like that

Although it has no basis in reality, I like it.

:rofl:

[Catherine Vincent]

9. I am assuming if she loses NC and IN that she will drop out.

Right?

[geek tragedy]

12. She was pretty sure she was winning PA.

Not so confident this time.

[MadBadger]

15. She could stay in and run up the score in WV and KY...but the supers would have none of that.

[Leopolds Ghost]

55. She'll win WV and KY even IF she drops out, and she knows it. Dean won VT

Sadly, there seem to be a lot more racists in Appalachia than I reckoned there were. Factor that in as well...

[Hepburn]

11. Okay, gotta ask: Which Tuesday?

With Hillary the Lyin' Queen...one never knows what spin is about to pop up on us.

[AllentownJake]

17. Odd

She guarenteed she was going to NC and IN on the eve of the PA primary.

[TBF]

22. Did she cry when she said that?

[Skip Intro]

34. When she said what, exactly?

[Skip Intro]

33. Wonder what her actual words were.

Wonder what the question was.

I think it highly possible that she pulls a sweep tomorrow.

Why would she drop out, even if it's just IN that she wins?

Hard to tell without context and actual quotes.

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

38. If Obama wins Indiana and North Carolina tomorrow

the supers will start endorsing in waves.

I still think Clinton takes Indiana by 5, but if Obama upsets, I think the party will be ready to declare a winner before KY/WV/OR/PR

[Skip Intro]

39. And if Hillary takes Indiana and North Carolina?

Why would the party circumvent it's own process?

[windbreeze]

37. Everyone needs to understand something....until Obama is in the WH

the race is not over, even IF she drops out...there's a multitude of things that could happen between now and then...in short..for me, this whole primary has been so surreal an experience...that until I see that man seated in the WH, governing this country...I won't believe he's made it...wb