Questioning Hillary Clinton's "Victory" in PA: The Rush Limbaugh Effect

[AZBlue]

by Terry Leach

I wish I could personally e-mail this to every voter in IN and NC tonight!

What if Democratic voters and the uncommitted superdelegates come to learn that Rush Limbaugh had a greater impact on Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania, and maybe Texas and Ohio, than say, the Reverend Wright, and the so-called 'bitter' comments? Would such a finding influence how voters view the Pennsylvania 'victory?'

If my thesis is correct, you have to ask yourself why so many Republicans want Hillary Clinton to run against John McCain in November.

Here is what we know: Approximately 160,000 Pennsylvania Republicans, Independents and/or new voters registered as Democrats in the months preceding the April 22 Primary. Media reports widely credit the tanking economy, health care crisis, and war in Iraq for Republican disillusionment. But wait--let's look at those very impressive numbers a little closer and compare the re-registration data to say, California. Pennsylvania is the home of approximately 12 million residents while California is the home of almost 38 million residents, over three times the size of Pennsylvania. So we might expect the California re-registration figures to climb to about three times the number of Pennsylvania's re-registrants.

But that isn't the case.

At 170,000 new Democrats, California, the most populous state, and arguably the state widely considered as being the most likely to hop on the latest bandwagon, roughly approximated the Pennsylvania experience, prior to its Primary election on Super Tuesday.

Something's not right.

I looked for answers. Like most people who've been paid to deliver Democratic strategy, I've mostly ignored self-important Rush Limbaugh's claims that his Operation Chaos is responsible for the large number of re-registrants voting for Hillary in the last several contests. Because I've worked with voters for 8 years and I know first-hand just how difficult it is to get voters to change their parties. But then it hit me when I compared the Pennsylvania numbers to California's. The voters I was dealing with for 8 years were saying good-bye to something that meant something. I sensed sadness, betrayal almost, as I stood by, clipboard in hand, helping voters leave the party of their parents. I have often compared this transition to the changing of one's religion -- it is that difficult when authentically done.

And that's the key. I believe that Rush's Operation Chaos is at play here and authenticity has nothing to do with too may new Democratic registrants in the last contests. This re-registration is, I believe, being undertaken at Rush's suggestion to cynically stretch this contest out -- as long as possible -- so that Hillary's promised kitchen sink theory -- will end up driving both candidates' negatives through the roof so that neither is likely to win against McCain.

Voters in upcoming contests will always be swayed by the outcome of preceding contests. It's human nature to be influenced by the wisdom of those who've gone before us. But if I'm right -- and the outcome in Pennsylvania, and perhaps Mississippi, Texas, and Ohio were influenced by Rush's call to Republicans to keep Hillary in the race longer -- Democratic voters in Indiana and North Carolina, and the states that follow, deserve to know that we're being manipulated.

I also strongly believe that the GOP wants Clinton to be the nominee because she's the only chance McCain has of winning in November. The GOP has truckloads of dirt on Clinton and they won't let on yet because they'd like her to be the nom - then they would bury her within the first week of her official candidacy.

[joeybee12]

1. Hmm...and all the repukes voting for Obama in other states are

just wanting that old hope and change? This post is lunacy.

[AZBlue]

2. There's a difference between a few Rep's switching, which should be expected given the shape

of the GOP, and a mass defection.

Read the analysis - it's all there. But, then again, it is more math - I know Clinton and her supporters don't like those numbers.

[MarjorieG]

3. No, but Rendell suppressed the Philly vote. Perception and expectations game everything.

[goclark]

6. Rendell was the new Rove in Philly

It was awful.

[environmentalist]

4. This was first posted on THE ENVIRONMENTALIST

and then cross-posted on huffpo.

Rush Limbaugh had something things to say about our site for publishing it. We responded to him here:

http://op-ed.the-environmentalist.org/2008/05/why-rush-limbaugh-thinks-this-site-is.html

[Zachstar]

5. I have been thinking about Operation Chaos.

#1 While it may be helping Clinton in these states it is completely destroying the merit of her arguments to the supers.

#2 Supers read the news and will likely take action if they feel that the republicans are using Clinton to influence the party.

#3 It is going to BADLY backlash on Rush and McCain. Because it will make them look like idiot scheming punks. When it fails and Obama is the nominee they will running around and trying to deny it actually meant anything.

#4 We can null and void Operation Chaos by working hard to get out the vote. Please Phonebank!

[MrSlayer]

7. I know a few of the Operation Chaos voters.

I don't know on how grand a scale this was occurring but I know it was. Everyone is a registered Democrat in Philly and unfortunately many of them are in name only when it comes to national politics.