I predict Hillary will drop out by the end of the week

[Quixote1818]

Tomorrow Obama will have a respectable 10 to 12 point win in NC and make it close in Indiana. By the end of the day Obama will win more delegates than Hillary and it will be clear she is spinning her wheels and stuck in one place or perhaps losing ground. The Super delegates will begin a mass exodus toward Obama and the press will be forced to cover it. I don't think Hillary will try the nuclear option. I think they were just floating it out there to see how people would react. Someone posted earlier that there were rumors floating around that she would drop out later this week if she didn't bring in huge numbers, and according to the polls it's just not materializing for her.

Hillary might decide to stay in until June to see if Obama is hit by something worse than Wright but by tomorrow evening she will know it's over. I know she says she is in it for the long haul but that is what Fred Thompson said too.

I admire her Quixotic heart, however in the novel Don Quixote both Sancho and Don Quixote represent important parts of the human spirit. Sometimes a Quixotic soul needs a Sancho to bring a person back down to earth and reality. There is always tomorrow to fight a new even more important battle. Al Gore showed us this with his fight to end global warming. The lesson this time around is that Democrats don't want to win like Republicans. Especially after 8 years of Rove and Bush. I personally don't think Hillary was ever comfortable playing the cutthroat politician roll. She was just doing what her advisers felt needed to be done to catch up. You can see in her eyes that she doesn't like going on the attack. I am sure she had good intentions for this country and would have given her heart and soul to the job, but it just wasn't meant to be this time.

PS. The last major prediction I made was that John McCain would come from behind and take the nomination. Several people said I was nuts for making that prediction. Lets see if I can make it two for two.

[uponit7771]

1. K & R

[K8-EEE]

2. GOD I hope you're right!!!

I had a lot of respect for the Clintons before this campaign -- I really don't LIKE not liking them but OMG they've just completely jumped the shark.

[SmellsLikeDeanSpirit]

7. Hillary jumped shark back in 2002.

[Usrename]

3. I think she may be out of gas, finally.

Another loss to Obama should make it even harder for her to raise cash.

[cliffordu]

4. I SOOOO want this to be over....

I wanna kick some NEOCON ASS!!!!


:bounce:

[Carrieyazel]

5. Obama's too soft to kick any ass. He won't be able to do it.

That's the problem with B.O. He'll need to have surrogates to flail McCain, and it won't be enough.

[cliffordu]

19. The problem with you is complete ignorance of the man's skill set.

That's cool.

:boring:

[PseudoIntellect]

6. There's no way she drops out after winning 1 of the 2 states, is there?

Especially if she can still use the Puerto Rico popular vote talking point later on.

I expect goalpost shifting.

[Iceburg]

8. Obama has to win Indiana too ...

Obama’s momentum has been fading since February, and he’s been falling short of his own expectations. Obama predicted a 5-point loss in Pennsylvania (Clinton won by nearly 10 points) and an 11-point win in Guam (currently he’s winning by 7 votes -- a recount is under cosideration).
In April, Obama was up 23 points in NC. Now his supporters are talking up a 12 point result.
In February he was predicting a 53/46 win in Indiana.

If Obama doesn't win both NC & IN decisively, he should drop out immediately because the late May contests are going to really hurt him.

[kmla]

10. Wow. That is a unique analysis.

Is the sky blue in your dream world?

Just askin'...

[K8-EEE]

13. LOL.

Yeah RIGHT! The winning candidate should drop out because....because....otherwise he'll get HURT in MAY!

[AllentownJake]

12. Right

He should drop out because he's winning and still will be winning unless the Queen wins 85% of the vote in the remaining states.

We are in a race for delegates...not popular vote. Stop trying to move the goal post.

[TheDoorbellRang]

20. Two points to counter the new M$M talking points you're making

The predictions you cite are from the Obama spreadsheet that was leaked to the press shortly after Super Tuesday. I notice eveyone cites the IN prediction but no one is citing the spread they predicted in NC, which is one point better than the IN spread. Their win predictions are as conservative as many of their loss predictions -- but so far they've been completely accurate as to who would win or lose with the exception of Maine: they predicted a loss in that state but won by a blowout instead. In fact, considering that their predictions are three months old, compared to what the national polls have spit out, they're almost prescient.

Second point: All their predictions were made before the Wright and elite nonsense that's been swirling in the toilet bowl of M$M.

[davidpdx]

9. Quixote, I hope you are right

But I'm going to bet against you (figuratively speaking) on your prediction. I think Clinton will stay in the race until May 20th and suspend her campaign on the 21st. She will take West Virginia, Kentucky (by quite a bit) and maybe Indiana by a slim margin. Obama will take North Carolina and Oregon and possibly Indiana (either way it will be close). The only way she drops out this week is if she loses Indiana. If she wins Indiana even by a hair there's no doubt in my mind we are going to see the same recycled arguments (Obama can't win big state, Obama is not electable, the voters regret, the superdelegates are going to all break for Clinton, etc.). Honestly if her campaign has been tone deaf this long, don't expect them to give up two days from now.

[HootieMcBoob]

11. She's going to start bleeding SD's

She's pissed off so many in her party and the uncommitted are going to start breaking for Obama and she will begin to shed some who have committed to her. This will all hopefully be over very soon.

[BklynChick]

14. I hope you do make it 2 for 2!

[backscatter712]

15. As much as I dislike her, she's too stubborn to quit.

It won't happen easily, but it will eventually happen.

I predict it'll happen soon after May 20th, when Obama gets that 1,627th pledged delegate, and the supers all flock to him and give him 2,025 total delegates.

Once Obama's mathematically won it, Hillary will look like a total fool to keep fighting.

[dbmk]

16. I was saying the same thing to a colleague 5 mins ago

I expect her to drop out some time this week.

One thing can make it hard for her, though. She has painted herself up in this "everyone should be heard" corner, which her stopping would make look slightly opportunistic in retrospect. But it does seem like she has been warming up to an exit lately.

And this days contests will not inject extra fuel into her donation machine.

Overall she will be in a -140 delegate situation with about 220 pledged and about 250 superdelegates to go.
The about 200 pledged will almost certain break 50-50ish. A certain part of the SDs will break to the pledged delegate winner. It will be clear after today that she will need an extremely large part of the remaining SDs - which run counter the the general trend. We might be looking at her needing 180 of of 220ish SDs

Even the MSM pundits will find it hard to ignore - or be able to understand it is more likely. It might depend a little on how much the concept of winning the pledged delegates gains traction - and what the signals are from SDs in that regard.

In short: I think you are right.

[graycem]

17. I agree with you on some points..

I think she's going to eek out a small victory in Indiana, and she'll pick up some more donations, giving her the money and will to fight the good fight until the next primaries. And we know that she'll do well in KY and WV, so that will prolong it further, and the noise will grow louder that he "can't connect w/ working class whites." The only thing that will cause her to drop out is if an overwhelming number of SD's come out for Obama, other than that, she's in this until June at least, and I do think you're right about the whole "nuclear option" kerfluffle. Testing the waters is all that was. The backroom SD's are who she is courting and if they think it's a bad idea, what's the point.

[Crabby Appleton]

18. I predict she won't. nt

[WeDidIt]

21. 80 delegates is Obama's magic number today.

Right now, according to DemConWatch, Obama needs just 282 delegates out of 677.5 remaining delegates. That's just 42% of remaining delegates.

There are 187 delegates up for grabs today. 42% of 187 is 79.

That means if Obama wins 80 or more delegates today, he decreases the percentage of remaining delegates needed in order to win.

By contrast, Clinton needs 415.5 out of 677.5 remaining delegates in order to win. That's about 61% of the remaining delegates. 114 is 61% of 187.

If Hillary takes 114 or fewer delegates today, the percentage of remaining delegates she needs in order to win increases.

Who has the higher hurdle to jump?

If we assume Obama only takes 93 of the delegates and Clinton takes 94 the number of remaining delegates required to win the nomination is altered thusly:

189 for Obama

321.5 for Clinton

There will be 490.5 delegates remaining. Thus, Obama would need ~39% of the remaining delegates to win and Clinton would need 66% of the remaining delegates.

Every primary day where Hillary Clinton does not totally blow Obama out of the water, the hurdle for her is raised higher.

[Leocattiglio]

22. I think it's possible

Kentucky won't be enough for her to erase a 130+ delegate lead.

[last1standing]

23. Hillary will only slither off the stage when the SDs force her.

The problem for them is that many lack the spine to be the first to stand up.

[SurfingAtWork]

24. I wish you were right

But after hearing about the deployment of the "nuclear option" in recent days, and after reading this:

"Top Clinton aides said the nominee must win based on a tally that includes delegates from Florida and Michigan, which held January primaries that were disqualified by party rules. The campaign's "Delegate Hub" Web site identifies 2,208 as the total delegates needed to be nominated, or 183 more than the threshold of 2,025 set by the Democratic National Committee's rules."



http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080506/NATION/525934081/1001

I am positive she will take this to the convention **even if he hits 2025 delegates**, and I don't think any amount of prodding by Dean or other party elders will be able to make any difference.

I really really hope that I'm wrong however.

[curious one]

25. She will continue no matter what. She just changed delegates number from 2025 to 2208.

She only cares about herself and nothing else. Do not get fooled by her eyes. Have you looked at shark eyes? cold with no soul.

[Quixote1818]

26. Kick to pat myself on the back.

Of course she hasn't officially said she will drop out yet but it's looking like she will.