Today I listen to the Voters

[Tom Rinaldo]

I've been low key on DU lately. For one thing the environment around here has not exactly been supportive of much real dialog. It's been more like sitting in the bleachers watching cheer leaders for your team, except it's a home game for one team and an away game for the other. But that's not the main reason for my stepping back. I feel, more so than at any time since this primary season began, that this contest has moved beyond the realm of spin masters on either side. By now the respective strengths and weaknesses of both Democratic candidates have been fairly well exposed. I know as a democrat how I will make my case for either of them if called upon to do so in the General Election. The cases are different in significant ways but similar in more profound ones.

I think that voters who reside in the States that are still being contested, starting with North Carolina and Indiana today, have a pretty firm read on both of our candidates after watching them strenuously campaign for their votes. The Democratic Party faces a historic choice this summer. Either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will be picked to represent us against John McCain in a critically important national election. Today I am feeling that it is less about what I am feeling and more about what the voters are feeling. Democrats need to win in November.

I accept that Barack Obama deserves his front runner status. If his campaign is experiencing a slump right now for whatever reason (obviously including recent controversies regarding Reverend Wright) that is not a good enough reason to deny him the nomination. Barack Obama no longer needs to defeat Hillary Clinton to win, but he does need to retain the confidence of the electorate in order to be our nominee. That is Obama's final test. Muddied results are now wins for Barack Obama, but he can still lose.

Tonight we glean real insights into whether Barack Obama is starting to lose the nomination, or if Hillary Clinton has already lost it. Today all the talking points seem hollow to me. There's not much point to any of them; we will all know so much more tomorrow.

[babylonsister]

1. Nice post. I'll be listening, too. nt

[berni_mccoy]

2. Clinton Needs 66% of the remaining SD's and 85% of the remaining Delegates

She can't win. Even if she wins both NC and IN, she can not overcome his lead at this point.

[Tom Rinaldo]

7. You either miss my point or disagree

It's no longer about the math. The math favors Obama obviously, which is why he no longer needs "to defeat" Clinton. She can pick up more popular votes, she can add some more delegates, but it isn't within her power to win this race by herself any more. She can't win unless Obama clearly "loses". Clinton can't win unless Obama moves into reverse, but if he does move into reverse some of those Super Delegates he now has in his camp can and will reverse their support for him also. The Democratic Party will not nominate a candidate whose campaign continues to lose steam between now and the nomination. The Democratic Party will not nominate a candidate that significant and increasing numbers of voters are losing confidence in as our convention approaches. I am not saying any of that is true about Obama today. Ask me again tomorrow though.

[grantcart]

3. Intelligent and well reasoned. From my point of view it stopped being Obama's

test and has become a test on America, but you knew that already. See you on the other side.

[Inuca]

5. Interesting perspective n/t

[Tom Rinaldo]

11. Yup, I did know that already

but you made you point well. Tomorrow; same time, same place :)

[Inuca]

4. Thank you for the rational and

thoughtful post.

[book_worm]

6. it seems to me in the last few days Obama has turned a corner

and in a way it's thanks to Hillary. Her pushing a summer gas tax relief and his opposing it took attention away from a true non-issue, Rev. Wright, to a real economic issue. This is what the campaign always should have been about. Obama has been better, it seems to me, on the stump and in interviews than he has been in about a month.

[Tom Rinaldo]

8. I am glad that the spotlight is off of Wright

I far far prefer that in the final days leading up to important elections like these that the spotlight focus directly on the candidates. However should Obama become our nominee, it is infinitely better that the whole Wright thing got hashed out in April and not in October.

[blm]

9. On THAT I absolutely agree - the talking points are meaningless at this point.

Tomorrow will be a new day.

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. I'm reminded of that old Bob Dylan song that starts out with:

"What's the matter with me, I don't have much to say". But this too will pass, starting in about 8 to 10 hours I figure.

[scheming daemons]

12. Reasoned post, Tom. And I concur.

Like grantcart, I believe today is a test of the American people.... not of Obama.


He's given them every reason to vote for him. If they reject him today, then it's their (and our) loss.


But I will say this: There will be 20,000 people at NC State University tonight to hear Obama speak. I think his internals are showing a solid win in NC.


...and really.... if he gets a solid (> 7%) win in NC... then Indiana doesn't much matter in the scheme of things.

[marlakay]

13. I agree with what you said

and I have written much much less the last few months too, mostly hang at friendlier blogs.

My thought about Obama though is if she wins Indiana by crossover republicans that won't vote for her in Nov, the supers aren't stupid and will know that and still go with him.

So although we might see results that seem to favor her, I will look at how much she wins by and by whom.

[Tom Rinaldo]

14. Yes

There is nothing in your sentence...

"So although we might see results that seem to favor her, I will look at how much she wins by and by whom."

...that most SD's would disagree with.

[kid a]

15. Is there a way to listen to just the Dem voters who are going to vote Dem in Nov?

Its increasingly apparent that more GOP voters are "toying" with this year's primary to manipulate the outcome and the eventual nominee.

If I were listening to them (and there MSM mouthpieces) I would assume that Obama is their greatest fear.

So, I too listen to the voters...but with a careful eye for manipulation and fraud.

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. You do realize that Clinton has won the votes of more registered Democrats than Obama has

so far in the primaries, right? Obama's lead has come from Independents and Republicans who were able to vote in Democratic contests. His campaign openly courted those votes, in all sincerity I do not doubt. But early on some Republicans also voted for Obama because they hated Clinton enough to want to derail any chance of her becoming President. That was never a guarantee that they would continue to vote for Obama as our nominee over McCain. It's similar with Independents. Some like both Obama and McCain but voted for Obama because the Democratic race was more competitive. They might shift back to McCain in the Fall even if Obama is our nominee.

Personally I back closed primaries, as closed as possible, but that is another discussion.

[kid a]

18. I, too, would listen more closely to closed primary

My post wasn't candidate specific.
But I would like to see the data and states you suggest as proof Clinton has won more registered democratic votes.

If there are purposeful efforts to disrupt either candidate's true support, that is bad.

[Tom Rinaldo]

19. I hate the efforts to skew tallies with insincere votes also

There was a whole DU thread devoted to Clinton winning more registered Dem votes than Repubs, I just found it with a DU search:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5699517

To be honest I never read it, lol, but it includes sources and it had a lot of discussion. I had seen reports of this in the media before so I had no reason to doubt the conclusion. Let me know if you find out otherwise.

[RichardRay]

16. Sounds about right to me.

I support Senator Obama, and I think he'll do fine today. And, I agree with your analysis overall. We'll see tomorrow morning where this thing is going. Even if Senator Clinton manages to win both of today's contests I don't think it's the end for Senator Obama, but it would change the flavor of the race. If Senator Obama wins both then I wouldn't expect Senator Clinton to drop out, but I would expect her to start campaignin differently.

We'll see....