Debunking the 'nuclear option', 27 add on Obama Super Delegates, Clinton needs 87% remaining SDs

[grantcart]

I) The so called 'Nuclear Option' hysteria continues unabated despite the fact that it makes no sense.

Background: One guy without sources made a stinking pile of dung alleging Clinton is about to launch a coup on the DNC Rules Committee.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/clinton-camp-considering_n_100051.html

The people on the rules committee have been in leadership roles for years in the party and love the party more than either candidate that they may now support. The people promoting this could not name a single person on the committee they think would support it.

Even the author of this crap states that the plan is contingent of the following

quote
For the scenario to work, then, Dean would have to be convinced of Clinton's superior viability in the general election, and that she has a strong chance of defeating McCain next November.
unquote

Beyond that it isn't with the rules committee. Credential challenges would go to the credential committee and then to the floor of the convention. There is no 'nuclear option' that gives Hillary MI and FL without a floor fight.

Today Hillary confirmed again that it will be decided before the convention.

Just because the HuffingtonPost wants to sensationalize and stir up the hornets nest does not mean that we have to follow such claptrap.



II) Add on Super Delegates favor Obama. There are a total of 76 Super Delegates that are being chosen as per schedule to fill the last open super delegate spots.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/add-on-superdelegate-selection-schedule.html

So far 13 Add on SDs have announced for Obama and 9 for Clinton 7 undeclared.

Of the 47 SDs not yet selected 27 come from caucus and primary states that Obama took by overwhelming margins and 9 that Clinton took. There are 11 from large states that Clinton took (CA 5 TX 3 PA 3) that might split some of their SDs for state pary unity.




III) Pelosi Club Super Delegates 6 undeclared and 1 Clinton




IV) Assuming that Obama will maintain a 135 delegate lead (135 today) and will maintain that number through the primaries Senator Clinton will have to make up 135 delegates with 135 net SDs.

Total SDs left 272

minus Obama add ons/pelosi Delegates 34


Leaves 225 super delegates left and she has to net 169 (135 Obama delegate lead + 34 'highly likely known additional Obama SDs)


Hillary will have to get 169 + 28 = 197 (225 - 169 = 56/2 = 28). 197/225 = 87%



Therefore If Obama maintains 135 delegate lead and if Obama picks up 34 SDs from the add ons from his states and the Pelosi club the Senator Clinton would have to gross 197 Super Delegates of the remaining 225 unannounced Super Delegates - 87%


This is why I believe a quick end is imminent.

[lapfog_1]

1. This isn't about Hillary winning the nomination...

it's about prolonging the campaign, all the way to the convention, leaving the "question" of the Democratic nominee up in the air for as long a possible ( and telling everyone that you are "just playing by the rules" ).

Of course she won't win a floor fight over this.

But she WOULD be able to stop Obama from effectively acting like the nominee of the party.

And that's all it takes for McCain to win in 2008... and for Hillary to run again in 2012.

And that's the plan.

As for the "story" not being sourced (about initiating the nuclear option)... the Clinton campaign has already admitted it! "it's not a secret plan...".

[grantcart]

3. the admitted simply that they continue to advocate that what they have been saying all along

that they think the FL and MI should be added in their favor.

They did not admit and no one has confirmed any details of a 'secret' plan conspiring with members of the rules committee to push this through.

More over both Clinton and McAwful have said that it will be over before June


Finally the plan as outlined on Huffington requires the agreement of Dean. Does anyone really think that is going to happen?

[lapfog_1]

6. uhh, the challenges have already been filed with the

Rules and Bylaws committee.

They will meet on May 31 to rule on the challenges.

Hillary has approximately 50 percent of the membership who are declared Hillary supporters and superdelegates. She may have MORE than that. But she doesn't even to need to win the vote in this committee. All she needs is enough votes to force an appeal to the Credentials committee and a minority report to the full convention. She has that many votes (unless they abandon her).

[grantcart]

22. she doesn't have 50% of the membership

There are rules committee memebers some of them are her supporters. The vast majority are long term democratic professionals who love the party more than either candidate. She doesn't have that great a command of these people's loyalties. Many, if not most are only supporters of Clinton or Obama after supporting somebody else like Dean, Gore or Edwards.

If you reread the original Huffington article the guy that wrote admitted a number of Clinton supporters who are polilticians in areas with huge Obama support for example:

quote

Former DNC and South Carolina Democratic Party chair Donald Fowler -- a Hillary loyalist -- would, for example, face an outpouring of anger from South Carolina Democrats if he were to go along with such a strategy.

unquote

And the rules committee doesn't have the authority. As I mentioned above it would simply go to the credentials committee and the convention rules committee. This committee has a large number of dean appointees who, although divided between Clinton and Obama are much more loyal to Dean.

quote
A controversial decision to seat the two delegations, as currently constituted, would be appealed by the Obama campaign to the Democratic National Convention's Credentials Committee.
unquote

so all the nuclear option does is take it to the credentials committee and then to the floor of the convention.


Note that to date no one has been able to identify a single rules committee member who is likely to be in favor of this.

[lapfog_1]

25. In a previous article on this at HuffPo, the author

listed all of the members and their declared support.

In the article you link he says this...

"With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party's 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee committed to Clinton, her backers could -- when the committee meets at the end of this month -- try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-member Florida and 156-member Michigan delegations. Such a decision would give Clinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according to Clinton campaign operatives."

So... if you have other information than what they listed... I'd like to see it.

Besides, as I've said, all she needs is enough votes on this committee to produce an appeal and issue a minority report. And that would refer this to the credentials committee and then, very likely, to the convention. She cannot win that appeal.

But THAT is why she (and her surrogates) not longer talk about 2025 as the number needed for nomination. Because they want this issue (of seating the FL and MI delegations AS VOTED) to stick around...

And it will cause disruption to the process all the way till the 2nd day of the Convention.

And THAT might cause Obama to lose the GE in November.

That's her goal right now. Not to win the nomination, but for Obama to lose.

I hope I'm wrong... but I've been right about the Clintons waaaay to often in this primary season.

[grantcart]

26. 1) There is no previous article

he simply added it the supposed 'revelation' Clintons had admitted their treachery to the top of the article as he states


quote
The Huffington Post ("Clinton Camp Considering Nuclear Option," see below


2) He doesn't list any likely conspirators only those likely not to go ahead - including Dean.


3) Moreover there has been articles in DU outlining how this kind of move would be impossible

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5337739&mesg_id=5337920
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5362737&mesg_id=5362737


If the fight over whether to count the results in Florida and Michigan makes it to the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton will not have enough pledged votes on the 169-member Credentials Committee to deliver a majority decision in her favor, according to an analysis conducted for Politico.

Her only hope of getting the key committee to vote out a “majority report” supporting her position rests on her ability to persuade an as-yet-undetermined number of the 25 members appointed to the committee by party Chairman Howard Dean to cast votes for her position.

The DNC’s Credentials Committee consists of 144 pledged members (Florida and Michigan are not included) plus the 25 party leaders and elected officials appointed by Dean. The 25 Dean appointees include a mix of Dean loyalists, Obama supporters and at least several individuals who have endorsed Clinton.


The 25 members appointed by Dean are all independent democratic loyalists who only have a secondary committmment to their candidates. They were hand picked by Dean for that reason. Most of them, including those supporting Clinton have a longer history of supporting Dean.

The Rules committee decides nothing, it is the credentials committee that has the initial power and then the entire convention would have to vote on the credential committee report.

[lapfog_1]

29. Again, we aren't talking about the Credentials Committee...

And Dean has named 25 people to the Credentials committee..

We are talking about the 30 member Rules and Bylaws committee. Since the rules are what FL and MI broke by moving their primaries, it is this committee that addresses challenges to the sanctions imposed by the DNC. Hillary has already had two challenges filed, one for each state.

This is the committee that the author claims to know that is at least 50% Clinton supporters.

Not the Credentials committee (who's full membership isn't even known yet).

The Rules and Bylaws committee decides one VERY IMPORTANT ISSUE, and that is "Were the sanctions imposed by the standing committee on Florida and Michigan in error?" If they decide that it WAS in error, then they can impose their own sanctions... or no sanctions at all. The Credentials committee would then decide if the slate of delegates from each state should be seated (or not). And Clinton will have representation on THAT committee in proportion to her pledged delegate count. That representation is MORE than sufficient to force a minority report to the floor of the convention along with an appeal.

Once it reaches the appeal reaches the floor, Obama's majority of delegates will likely vote it down, thus ending the hopes of seating anyone from either state. But that won't happen until August.

And therein lies the rub, as they say.

[grantcart]

32. no the credentials committee handles all challenges to the convention

even if the rules committee were to challenge then there would still be a challenge.

But what makes this ridiculous is that many many many Clinton surrogates have said that sitting the MI delegation as is wouldn't be fair.

but you go ahead get your self hysterical. Its not based on any facts. Even the idiot that started this said it could only suceeed with Deans agreement and no one believes that is going to happen.

[lapfog_1]

33. I'm not hysterical, just cynical when it comes to Hillary.

and you should not label me or anyone else reporting this as "idiots".

I haven't done that with you.

I am basing my opinion on Hillary and this possibility on a long history of her pulling just this type of crap in this election.

Or have we all forgotten the lawsuit to prevent casino workers in Las Vegas from attending a caucus?

I think even Hillary knows that Obama will reach 2025... that's why she now talks about 2206 as the number to reach... and the only way that happens is if the FL and MI delegates are seated.

Again, I do NOT think she can "steal" the nomination... but she will TRY to screw things up for Obama so that the convention is not a planned coronation event and so that Obama will not be able to take it to McCain from now till August.

[myrna minx]

2. K&R n/t

[grantcart]

4. tks

[mohc]

5. Not to quibble

But the Texas add-ons are selected by the state convention, which will be made up of delegates selected at the senate district and county conventions. The delegates at those conventions were selected at the precinct caucuses, which Obama won. In other words, as far as add-on delegate selection goes Obama will hold the advantage in Texas.

[grantcart]

8. its not quibblilng I agree

also CA has 5 SDs and I don't add any in there for him either. I wanted to take the most conservative numbers.

The percent that Hillary needs seems excessively high so I am waiting for somebody to figure how how I screwed that up.

[bigbrother05]

7. Please explain to me, what Hillary is stating

the new number 2209?

[grantcart]

9. that is the number that includes MI and FL

while she continues to argue for that position I don't believe that there is some conspiratorial move at the rules committee.


She can say it - it doesn't mean that its going to happen.


Of course if there is some unbelievable upset tonight and she gains 20 super delegates she will continue to fight


I just don't believe the wild conspiracy theories without any supporting evidence - especially one that is based on Dean agreeing.

[bigbrother05]

10. Thanks, I told you May 6th lol

[phrigndumass]

11. You hit it right on the nose, grantcart ... 87.5%

That's 90% if we round it (lol)

K/R

[grantcart]

12. wow now I can relax lol

question if you add the 34 'well known' SDs for Obama

and take out the pledged delegates that are decided today then what is the Huckabee number?

[phrigndumass]

15. Huckabee Index would be ** 23 **

... if (when) the 34 SDs are added.

Secondly, here's an illustration of how you are correct in your OP:



The Huckabee Index in your OP scenario would be 30.

:toast:

[Tresalisa]

13. K-ing and R-ing!

Your well-reasoned posts always calm me down, Grantcart!

[grantcart]

16. yeah we can get hysterical anytime lol

[berni_mccoy]

14. EIGHTY SEVEN PERCENT! Ain't gonna happen.

:kick: & R

[grantcart]

19. Intrade seems to agree

although if they read this thread I am sure it would go lower than this

[WeDidIt]

17. The only way the nuclear option works is if she wins BOTH NC and IN

We shall see.

If she loses either one of those two contests, the nuclear option will be completely off the table.

And right now, the nuclear option is her last hope of winning the nomination.

[grantcart]

18. it also requires Dean's participation

it would still have to go to the credentials committee and the floor of the convention.

[WeDidIt]

20. True enough, but it's also why the 2209 threshold was floated by them

today.

They have set the stage to go nuclear.

My bet is the plan is to hold Dean hostage by forcing a choice between seating the delegates from Florida and Michigan as is with full voting rights or no seating at all. The thinking would probably be that we have to seat them and if this is the only way, it's the only way.

Again, it depneds upon a lot of things falling in place and step one is winning both North Carolina and Indiana.

[grantcart]

21. they are not setting up the nuclear option they are simply spinning for their

supporters. They have to convince their supporters read their financial supporters to keep giving money.


The Super Delegates are not going to buy this for a minute - even Clinton SDs are going to laugh this out the door.



Would they like to seat FL and MI yes but not in a back room it would have to have widespread SD support. Even if they got FL and MI under the most favorable conditions they would still need massive SD support.

[thevoiceofreason]

23. A modern Gods of the Copybook Headings

With apologies, Mr. Kipling

In the hopes of election we were promised tax holidays and abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though she had plenty of delegates, there were no more delegates to buy,
And the Gods of the Obama O-Team said: "If you don't have the numbers you die."

Then the Gods of the Hillbots tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Obama O-Team limped up to explain it once more.

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since primary elections began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after all this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all delegates choose their new heroes, and the convention finally ends,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Obama O-Team, in victory and with hope return.


Edited to take out brackets

[grantcart]

36. tks

[Arugula Latte]

24. If she doesn't get 87 she'll be 86ed!

[grantcart]

28. 10-4

[quantass]

38. LOL!

[cliffordu]

27. Alright, grantcart...I'm not leaving home again cause I keep missing

these tasty posts of yours...

Sorry I'm late again...

KandR!!!! :kick:

[grantcart]

30. I am not going anywhere now

[Mme. Defarge]

31. Thanks -- I needed that!

[WillyT]

34. Thank You For That !!! - K & R !!!

:bounce::woohoo::bounce:

:hi:

[grantcart]

35. thank you

[bhikkhu]

37. K&R - what the heck

Maybe it will help the news sink in for a few.

Thanks grantcart, for a timely and detailed post.