Could it be? Latest Exit Polls show Obama up in Indiana 50.5 - 49.5

[JackORoses]

and up 22 in NC!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/06/exit-polls-indiana-north_n_100447.html

UPDATE, 6:05 PM: Another round of exit polls has better results for Obama (who generally overperforms in exit polls):

Indiana

Obama: 50.5%
Clinton: 49.5%

North Carolina

Obama: 60%
Clinton: 38%

[Kaylee]

1. Don't believe the hype

Let's be pleasantly surprised.

[Leftist Agitator]

2. Cue the Hillarites whining in 3, 2, 1...

[AllentownJake]

3. Take 7 away

From Obama in each one.

Kept it to single digits in Indiana.

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[AllentownJake]

15. Obama is unique

With exit polls

1) His supporters are more likely to fill out the surveys
2) People lie to hide their racism
3) Clinton supporters are embarrased or secretive about their votes and are less likely to agree to the survey.
4) GOP people who vote like to lie.

[leeman67]

22. Sadly, you are mostly correct.

exit polling always seems to overstate Obama's share of the vote. The "Bradley Effect" lives on.

[GoesTo11]

36. Maybe the Limbaugh effect, not the Bradley effect

Why do people assume that the Limbaugh party crashers are telling the truth in exit polls, or even allowing themselves to be polled?

If a few percent of the voters are of this ilk, that would lead to a big difference in exit vs. actuals.

[Emit]

33. You should add Machine vs Hand Counts and Caucus vs Primaries

to your list, too.

Even my SO noted after watching Chuck Todd try to explain the discrepancies in exit polls to Charlie Rose last night that true election reform (e.g., Voting machine manufacturers oppose open source code because they consider it to be proprietary information was the concern my SO had) was never addressed adequately, and we're still left wondering WTF is up with the more recent anomalies with exit polls.

:crazy:

[babylonsister]

23. Ha! Play nice, boys. nt

[Hippo_Tron]

21. I think in Indiana you may be right, but I woldn't be surprised about a blowout in NC

Take away 3 or 4 from Obama in NC maybe.

[AllentownJake]

28. The southern exit polls are more accurate

For some reason.

[bluestateguy]

4. All that means is that Obama will lose respectably in Indiana

The networks monkey with the numbers throughout the night--and always in a pro-Hillary direction.

Either that or we may have something of a Bradley Effect going on with these exit polls.

[sellitman]

5. exit polls are usually a very poor indicator.

I'd be happy if Obama is within 5% of Hillary in Indiana.

[dchill]

6. "...a very poor indicator."

Only since 2000.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Since 1988 When Raw Exit Polls Showed Dukakis Beating Bush Pere

~

[PM7nj]

7. Exit polls showed him up in PA too.

[leeman67]

18. Not true. Exit polls DID, however, show it to be much closer than it

ended up being. I seem to recall 52-48, and of course it ended up 55-45. Exit polls are not reliable, so your overall point is correct.

[karynnj]

8. Obama people - remember that Lake county usually comes in late

because it is on chicago time. (Though even when I was a native Hoosier living in Indiana - I never knew what time it was in the rest of the state. :) )

[babylonsister]

26. And is Lake County a biggie for us? I'm not familiar with this part of

the country at all.

[Cant trust em]

11. I'm trying really hard to not get excited about this possibility

I've been saying since PA that Clinton will probably will by 4-8 points. So now that he might squeak this out I don't want to set my expectations high. I'll just keep them right where they are and be happy with my ability to see the future.

[sweetrage1913]

14. I got duped by the PA exit polling too...

I think I learned my lesson though. I refuse to trust any exit poll in this primary ever again. Can't wait to get to the real numbers.

[Cant trust em]

17. They're really using our weakness of hunger for information against us.

They know that we're starving here, so they'll just give us some scraps to keep us happy.

[sweetrage1913]

31. What an awesome analogy...

Made me LOL in my cubicle... Man, I can't wait to get off work.

[ORDagnabbit]

12. exit polls only count for other countries. n/t

[leeman67]

13. Would be nice, but NEVER believe exit polling

ever since 2004 it seems that exit polling is always wrong.

[nebula]

25. 2004 is also when e-voting came into wide use for the first time.

Coincidence?

[leeman67]

37. Nope. Not. At. All.

[johncoby2]

16. Obama was up by 17 in California.

Lost by 22.

Everyone get a grip for a few hours. Only 3% of the precincts are in in IN.

[democrattotheend]

20. No he wasn't

Early exit polls showed him losing California by 3

[johncoby2]

27. Oh you are right. Up by 17. Lost by 3.

Either way, he was a loser.

I loved hearing all the liberals on the radio saying "HE IS UP BY 17 POINTS!" and then making excuses the next day.

Eitherway, there is only 3% in.

[BlooInBloo]

19. Sounds nice, but we'll see when it's all said and done.

[Seabiscuit]

24. CNN has Clinton up 61% - 39% in Indiana with 2% reporting.

No exit polls available for North Carolina yet.

You made your first mistake by relying on huffingtonpost. It's become www.clintonhatersblog.bleah.

Now with 4% reporting Clinton is up 59% to 41%. Still an 18 point margin. IOW, a blowout. 46K + to 32K+.

See:http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IN

Edited to add: Now with 11% reporting, Clinton 58%, Obama 42%.

WIPEOUT!

[PM7nj]

32. You do realize all of the urban areas aren't in, right?

Lake County's polls just closed.

[Seabiscuit]

34. So? Indiana isn't Georgia or South Carolina.

It's not even Pennsylvania.

Fort Wayne is in, BTW.

[Auntie Bush]

29. 59 Clinton -41 Obama

[Kittycat]

30. Nope - don't believe it.

[Hutzpa]

35. I guess it makes for good reading

if you can scream it from the top of your lungs.....right.

I already have this up.....

here; http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5845987&mesg_id=5845987