Obama’s Support Similar to Kerry’s in 2004 (Gallup)

[Pietrogustapov]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama's current level of support among white voters in a head-to-head matchup against John McCain is no worse than John Kerry's margin of support among whites against George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election



...But it appears that the way Obama stacks up against McCain at this point is similar to the way in which Kerry performed against Bush in 2004 within several key racial, educational, religious, and gender subgroups.

...

This overall comparison, in and of itself, suggests that Obama, assuming he captures the Democratic nomination, begins the general-election contest in roughly the same position in which Kerry ended his unsuccessful quest in 2004 -- that is, with the prospect of a very close race.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107110/Obamas-Support-Similar-Kerrys-2004.aspx

[BattyDem]

1. 6 months before the GE, Obama has the same numbers Kerry had on the day of the GE

That sounds great to me! :bounce:

[Pietrogustapov]

3. 6 months before the GE, Kerry had better numbers than he had in November

Zogby, May 10-13, 2004: Kerry by 5% over Bush.
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=826


Pew, 5/3-9, 2004: Kerry by 3%
http://people-press.org/reports/print.php3?PageID=824


See more polls from 2004:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/bush_vs_kerry_historical.html

[BattyDem]

7. But Obama's already been through the swiftboating.

The GOP will certainly attack him, but he's already proven that he will handle the attacks far better than John Kerry did. :-)

[Leopolds Ghost]

23. Not really, both men failed to respond forcefully as they could, but then they got no support either

From the "hateful" sunshine Dems (see post below).

[ecstatic]

2. True, but the energy behind him is different. That is key

I was rooting for Kerry, and was very disappointed when he lost, but I was never passionately involved in his campaign. And my feelings for him quickly shifted into hate when he lost.

[DB1]

14. Much more energy and much more GOTV fever.

[Leopolds Ghost]

24. Well that's not very productive.

[ecstatic]

31. I just want to clarify that I really like Kerry now

Time heals.

[MannyGoldstein]

4. Six Months Ago, Clinton's Support Similar To God's

Things change.

[Pietrogustapov]

6. Difference: The media doesnt' hate McCain as much as Clinton

Very, very different.

[MannyGoldstein]

9. Six Months Ago, The Media Was "All Inevitable, All The Time" On Clinton

Glowing articles on her "perfect" campaign.

[Muttocracy]

5. thanks little raincloud! enjoy your stay! nt

[BayouBengal07]

8. What about turnout?

Polls can't predict record turnout from new voters energized after 8 years of Bush, right?

[Gore1FL]

13. exactly. There has been a lot of party building going on.

McCain doesn't have the following Bush has--Hell, he doesn't have the following Hillary has.

The right is not energized, and the left is. Additionally, the left is growing while the right is shrinking.

There are a lot of states opening up now and in play that we would have never dreamed about being competitive before.

Obama should keep most, if not all of the blue states while putting the following states into play:

VA
NC
SC
LA* (minority turnout required)
MS* (minority turnout required)
MO
KS* (if he chooses Sebelius as VP)
NE* (if he chooses Sebelius as VP)
SD* (if he chooses Sebelius as VP)
ND* (if he chooses Sebelius as VP)
CO
NV
NM
TX (of all places...)

The economy may put IN on the List with OH

McCain is going to be busy and underfunded just trying to keep red states red.

[Zynx]

33. There was a huge increase in turnout in 2004 over 2000, but didn't help us.

[Hippo_Tron]

10. Very different election, we're not running against an incumbent this time

[MadBadger]

11. Those numbers are off

May 1-5 represented Obama's worst period of the campaign in the Gallup tracking poll. He was down six points from May 1-3. But today, he is up 1.

[ProSense]

12. How completely idiotic!

Forget the terror alerts, the war, an incumbent president: Are they going to have the same level of vote suppression and machine problems?

[mtnsnake]

15. I love how all the Obamawhiners can't face the music that Obama is virtually unelectable

:thumbsup:

[Frances]

16. Well, Obama will almost certainly be our nominee

and Obama is 1000% better than McCain

[ProSense]

18. You're talking to pizza! n/t

[mtnsnake]

20. Jeesh, the Obamawhiners Mass Email Banning Alert is gettng more efficient by the minute!

Yikes

[Cha]

29. Oh really?

'Cause that's Ignored for me..did it get tombstoned?

[sniffa]

21. I love how you show up on every zombie's thread nowadays

:thumbsup:

[Colobo]

22. Mtnsnake, the people have spoken: Obama will be the nominee.

Admit it and you will be free.

[TheDonkey]

27. You lost, get over it.

:rofl: or come up with something more original.

[Occam Bandage]

32. You lost, move on.

[cali]

34. golly. maybe, just maybe, folks disagree with the bitter likes of YOU

I've always said I think both Clinton and Obama are eminently electable. You seem so self-absorbed that you believe that you're the only one who could possibly have a meaningful opinion. I've long said that anyone who say's either is unelectable is simply full of shit.

[MattBaggins]

38. Almost as funny as the Hillary followers

who think she can win the GE. Folks who think the 527s won't unleash a rain of fire down upon the Goddess of Obliberation Peace.

[Arrowhead2k1]

17. McCain is gonna get smoked either way.

He's another Bushy idiot. He admits to knowing fuck all about the economy, and the economy happens to be a BIG issue this year. People want to see us get out of Iraq. People don't want to 'bomb bomb bomb' Iran and get into an even bigger mess. People want change, and Obama will deliver as soon as he gets this annoying Hillary out of the way.

[Life Long Dem]

19. Clinton was competing with Kerry at the time as well? n/t

[PBS Poll-435]

25. I have heard that argument around here before....

[Leopolds Ghost]

28. Remember when Clinton folks insisted on tweaking the format of Kerry's convention?

They were bitterly opposed to a populist message, and didn't like Kerry portraying himself as a war hero, (because Clinton and other DLC insiders refused to characterize him as such, and vocally took the Swift Vets at face value saying "as far as I know" Kerry served honorably -- sound familiar?) but they wanted lots of flags and patriotism to show that Dems were not anti-war. Clinton was pro-war at the time and fought the anti-war forces at the convention.

Media folks AT THE TIME speculated openly that talk was, Clinton wasn't particularly mind Bush defeating Kerry because it left the field open in 2008. They were VERY OPEN about this.

[Leopolds Ghost]

26. Yes, she and her husband trashed Kerry & his policies at every turn, accused of being too anti-Bush

"It was a different world then" and all that.

[DrFunkenstein]

30. Bush Won Because of Fundamentalist Turnout That McCain Ain't Got

McCain faces a real problem because whatever he does will piss off either the fundies or the independents. Meanwhile, no one even cares that he is running. He can't even get Wall Street to back him for a chance at some golden access, and that says something!

[goclark]

36. and don't forget Blackwell in Ohio and little old Rove

Bush didn't really win, Kerry did but he didn't couldn't do anything about it.

When it gets to the general,Obama has got to have a dynamite team of "VOTE WATCHERS" they need to be trained from the day of his nomination in the Primary.

Every committed supporter needs to have training and volunteer, just like a VOTER REGISTRATION training.


I have worked the polls 6 times and each time it has been the same.

In a highly African American district,guess who is always the surprise guess to make sure everything went as planned at least three times that day?

A White female ( I have nothing against White females other than that in this case, I have never seen a minority in that position in all my Precinct work.)

I don't know who picks them.

I volunteered for the position three times and was told "Oh, we have enough trained volunteers to be the "Supervisors."

So I had one of my White friends call and see if those positions were filled -- Bingo! They had openings, and this is what happens in multi-racial Los Angeles.

That is just one example.

I was assigned once to a Precinct in Beverly Hills. I was floored!

The Beverly Hills police department blocked off spaces for three blocks just for voters. I think that is great and should be done everywhere. But not done in our neighbor.

The location was an Elementary school and the PTA had a bake sale going and hot dogs for sale -- it was lovely!

Another Blonde Supervisor walked in that day and took over! The Captain of the polling place was shocked and hurt that they sent someone to "oversee" her work.

She called in and they told her that this would be her "helper."

Supervisor was extra nice to everyone,knew everything about everything.
Took charge of "helping" people getting to other polling sites etc.

Then,about 2 PM PST, a young voter came in to vote, crying her eyes out, she had just heard on the radio that Bush won.
I encouraged her to vote anyway and she did.

When I mentioned to the "Supervisor" what had happened, she didn't appear shocked, she just kept being in charge. Helped us and then took those ballots in her car to "be counted."

I've often regretted not following her in my car and being with her when she dropped the ballots off.

We all have to immediately volunteer for every aspect of the process. There should be no voter "surprises" on that day, when it is too late.

[uponit7771]

35. How does Hillary do against McSame? Thx

[blm]

37. Bush was at its PEAK POWER THEN. And DNC was too weak to counter RNC election fraud.

Kerry would have won against Bush at his peak power if the DNC had done its job for four years after 2000 and secured the election process.

Obama will win because he will be facing a much weaker RNC and a much stronger and more honest DNC than Kerry had.