Where's that flood of super-delegates?

[Austinitis]

I mean, I'm not trying to say that Hillary can still win this thing (barring major scandals, etc.). As sad as it makes me, it's over.

But really, why did Obama only pull 4 delegates yesterday? He only netted three more than her (since she picked up one) and that's no more than he was pulling before Tuesday. One would think he would be able to secure more than that (and if he's holding them in reserve, why did he send out those 4?). Wasn't the end-game supposed to involve a rally of super-delegates around Obama?

I mean, if they can't force her out by the end of today, this is probably going to June 3rd. Tomorrow is Friday and they can't really exert that much leverage over the weekend. Monday is right before Tuesday, when she's probably going to win big, and I don't think they'll be able to put any serious pressure on her after that.

[GarbagemanLB]

1. 4 just yesterday. It has begun.

[Austinitis]

4. Maybe, but I don't know why it's taking this long

I would have thought he would have 15 or 20 by now. 4 isn't any better than what he was doing a week ago.

[cali]

2. I don't think that Obama wants to force her out

If he's perceived to have done so with the aid of SDs then he further alienates many of her voters.

[Occam Bandage]

3. I'd think they want to keep her around until after WV and KY. It looks rather bad

to get walloped in two successive contests by a candidate who's been forced out by party elders. Keep in mind that the real contest is against John McCain.

[Austinitis]

8. It would have looked way better to minimize those losses by having her out

She's going to pound Obama in WV and KY and that just reinforces the whole "Obama doesn't connect with working class whites" thing.

[Occam Bandage]

16. While that would result in a few days of bad media, I'd think the Obama camp should be

more concerned with not alienating the Hillary half of the party. After all, WV/KY is going to be a blowout regardless of whether she's in or out; the media storyline will be the same regardless. However, if Hillary's been forced out by supers, then there's an additional, extraordinarily damaging side line:

Hillary Clinton was forced out by the party, despite the fact that she's still winning states in blowouts. If you're looking to make her a political martyr, and if you're looking to make sure that HRC supporters refuse to support Barack Obama, then by all means, kick her out. If you hope for post-primary reconciliation, then let it play out, and take the nomination cleanly.

Obama's going to keep trickling the SDs, to avoid the appearance of a superdelegate boot kicking her out prematurely. He's doing the right thing.

[babylonsister]

5. Don't worry about it; they're on their way. David Bonior, Edwards'

campaign manager, jumped on board the Obama train today. Stand by!

[Austinitis]

11. Edwards could be enoigh to end it before WV

but why is he taking this long?

[Bensthename]

6. 4 a day at this pace it will be over for clinton is a couple of weeks. + his Oregon win

She is done. dont worry. It is time to focus on grandpa.

[Austinitis]

10. But are you saying 4 a day is the most they can pull

or they're just spreading them out, or what? Because I think it would be way more effective to have them all come out at once.

[Inuca]

17. Most likely

they are spreading them out.

[Bensthename]

24. I have not reason for their logic but they are coming faster now

then last week. Also a couple of big Hill backers are now pressuring her to drop out.
No matter, this time next month Obama will be the nominee and this will be over.

[nomorewhopper]

7. they're giving hillary a chance to save face and drop out

and trying to court her supporters who don't appreciate being strong armed

if hillary stays in the race for too much longer, the boom will be lowered.

[Inuca]

20. Exactly n/t

[rodeodance]

31. “Electability” is important to Undecided SD’s , 5/06/2008

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject “Electability” is important to Undecided SD’s , 5/06/2008
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5880488#5880488
5880488, “Electability” is important to Undecided SD’s , 5/06/2008
Posted by rodeodance on Thu May-08-08 04:44 AM


http://www.thehill.com/leading-the-news/superdelegates-say-we-will-decide-2008-05-06.html

"Superdelegates say, we will decide"

By Alexander Bolton

Posted: 05/06/08 07:57 PM

Uncommitted Democratic superdelegates in Congress overwhelmingly say they won’t necessarily back the presidential candidate who wins the most primary delegates. Instead, electability will be very important in their decision…........


The congressional superdelegates’ independence is precisely what Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is banking on as she trails by about 130 pledged delegates behind rival Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).

It also means the Democratic Caucus is unswayed by its leader, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), who has warned that the party will suffer if superdelegates overturn the will of primary voters. Pelosi has said superdelegates should take into account whatever is important but not give the nomination to the candidate who lags in delegates.







……Lots more…..

[nomorewhopper]

32. supers are going to flood to obama

anything else is just wishful thinking

reports yesterday said that superdelegates in masse refused to even meet with clinton anymore. they either 1) don't want to hear another bogus sales pitch or 2) have already made up their minds about who to support

you need to come to grips with the fact that this race is over

obama is on the cover of time magazine listed as the winner.

nothing can stop it now.

sorry to disappoint you

[TwilightGardener]

9. They know it's over. They're just letting it play out.

[Inuca]

12. My take

the most important thing at this point is not whether she drops today, tomorrow, or in a couple of weeks or even a month. It is instead to allow her to get out gracefully, avoid the perception that she was pushed out, and start the reconciliation process. An avalanche of SDs, especially major ones (the few that are left), announcing their support would be in a way counterproductive.

Also: Diane Feinstein publicly voicing her doubts is more telling than 20 SDs announcing today. IMHO of course.

[WA98296]

13. He JUST now wrapped up a meeting with SDs. So, let's see.

[babylonsister]

14. A bunch of them met with Obama in DC this a.m. I wonder what they

talked about? :dilemma:

[Avalux]

15. They don't want to appear to be forcing Hillary out.

She'd be like a rabid dog backed into a corner - god only knows what she'd do.

[Egnever]

18. As long as she keeps the fight clean they wont jump en mass to embarrass her out.

They will let the clock run out first. Its good for these late states to get a chance to rub elbows with the candidates as long as they aren't at each others throats. It lays groundwork in those states and drives up registration.

As long as she runs a clean anti McCain campaign from here on out. I think its good for her to stay in. Hell if i wasn't afraid she was going to go into attack mode again I would donate to help her run it out, and I pretty much despise her at this point.

[babylonsister]

22. Clean like this?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5882386

[Egnever]

35. I gotta admit that does concern me

And I think thats a shot across the bow from her. I bet she doesn't do it again and if she does I think the hammer will fall pretty hard.

In fact I just heard someone mention that intervue just now on MSNBC and it wasnt positive.

[AllentownJake]

19. At this point

its about appearences....no one wants to look like they pushed her out.

Winning West Virginia is like Obama winning Mississippi....it will have no effect on Oregon.

[dbmk]

21. Pretty sure they could roll out more.

But for a couple of (or three) reasons they might not.

1) Each superdelegate gets a little of the limelight. If 50 came out at the same time, each of them would be drowned out by the sheer number.

2) Some might have asked to come out as late as possible and not at all if possible, due to their private or proffessional relations (some might sit on boards or the like, where a partisan image would work agains them)

3) They don't want it to look like they force her out.

The end game you talk about might come when he crosses the point of having won the pledged delegates - but I don't think there was an endgame in the works like you lay it out.

Note: Atm they are not "pulling" the SDs that are coming out. They know who they have for a large part and have known for some time before they announce them. its not something that is finalised, necessarily, on the same day as the announcement.

[Pisces]

23. They were trying to let her exit gracefully, but she is incapable. She may need her nose rubbed in i

[Texas Hill Country]

27. how friggin rude is that.... you just had to go that extra mile, didnt you?

[Orangepeel]

25. Probably May 20.

He'll win Oregon, she'll win Kentucky, and she can exit on a high note.

[gabby garcia]

28. great minds!

lol

[Orangepeel]

34. *clink*

:toast:
:hi:

[gabby garcia]

26. May 20

he'll have the necessary delegates.

[JimGinPA]

29. Here's Your Answer...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5883717

[rox63]

30. They will likely split the last 6 contests

The net result will still be an Obama win. He'll likely take OR, MT and SD by large margins. She'll probably take WV, KY and PR by large margins. But the end result will be the same. She can not catch up. I expect to see a daily trickle of super delegates endorsing Obama. The flood will probably wait until after the 5/20 primaries. He'll have more than half the pledged delegates by then, making him the winner in pledged delegates. Then the rest of the super delegate will flood over to him.

[oviedodem]

33. There is a certain level of "class" in obamas campaign and there is no

need to embarrass her.

[madwivoter]

36. Patience grasshopper

They'll be moving soon

:headbang:

[backscatter712]

37. The flow is increasing.

They're not going to declare in a big block - most of the superdelegates are elected politicians, and want to make a little song and dance in front of the TV cameras when they endorse, so they're gonna do it a few a day, steadily, every day from now to the day Obama hits 2,025. The pace will be increasing now that it's clear that Obama's the one that's checkmating Hillary in 4 moves, and none of those superdelegates want to be number 2,026.

So be patient. Last week, it was just one or two a day, sometimes none a day. Now it's four or five, maybe even more a day, and they'll keep coming.

[marlakay]

38. I heard obama had a smile on his face

after talking to alot of supers so I think he will have them come out at the right time. His campaign seems to know when.

I don't think he wants to look like he is forcing her out, bringing a few out at a time instead of a bunch might help with her supporters.

I think the only reason his campaign and the supers will all come out in a big bunch is if she keeps being negative. Her comment today about his not having the white vote might piss off alot of them.

[democrattotheend]

39. I think the superdelegates are waiting to see what she will do

Give her time to get out without pushing her out. Or they may let it go on until June 3...there's no indication that Obama's campaign is trying to push her out. I'm an Obama supporter and I don't think she should be pushed out so long as she keeps it positive. If she starts attacking him again I expect to see more supers come out for him.

I want Obama to have full legitimacy as the nominee, and the best way for that to happen is if she either drops out on her own or if the supers come out for him after all the states have voted. Obama is better off if the superdelegates don't come out and push her out now while she is still vowing to push on.