Math reveals seating Michigan and Florida in any way other than 50-50 is a trap for Obama

[Tropics_Dude83]

I don't care what the media says. Seating Michigan and Florida in any other fashion than 50-50 or giving the existing delegation a half vote each is a trap. Why? It makes the magic number required to win 2,208 delegates? If Obama agrees to seat Michigan and Florida, he will by definition be agreeing that 2,208 delegates are needed to win the nomination. I just used slate.com's delegate calculator and if Michigan is seated 69-59 and Florida is seated to give Hillary a net gain of around 25 delegates combined with her big upcoming wins that are expected in Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico, she could end the primary season trailing by just under 100 delegates. I came up with Obama leading her by 95 delegates using the slate.com calculator. If you add in the current superdelegate total, Obama's lead will probably stand at around 60-80 delegates going into the convention with him needing around 385 superdelegates to reach 2,208.

I read somewhere that Harold Ickes's goal is to take it to the convention if he can see Obama's delegate lead to fall under 100 by the end of the proccess. If you seat Michigan and Florida with a net Hillary gain of 30-35 delegates, that's exactly what we get. Like I said, his lead going into Denver is around 60.

Hillary and Bill Clinton in that scenario will be pulling out all the stops with the supers. We'll hear talk about how pledged delegates aren't really pledged. They'll try to flip. If Obama accepts that Michigan and Florida need to count, Hillary and Bill Clinton will twist that gracious gesture and stab him in the back. They'll say even my opponent Senator Obama accepted that Michigan and Florida needed to count. Hillary is likely to be leading in the popular vote at the end of the proccess if we count both Michigan and Florida in the popular vote.

Obama needs to play hardball. Hillary Clinton has shown no reluctance. I believe that it is a huge mistake (unless he is extremely confident that he can win the support of around 400 superdelegates even with the seating of Florida and Michigan favorably to Clinton) to be gracious. He cannot "afford" to make a deal at all.

I hope his staff realizes this.

[PBS Poll-435]

1. But what will the stripper in the cake do on May 20th with nothing to celebrate?

[bowens43]

2. There's going to be strippers?

[leftofcool]

6. Oh I gotta see this

[BeyondGeography]

26. One guy just redid his calendar

[rug]

3. What are you afraid of? It's supposed to be over.

[quantass]

10. Think about it for a second. It's more about being fair! Recall he followed the rules.

[rug]

29. It's not at all about being fair. He signed off early because it looked like a sure win for Clinton.

Clinton, on the other hand, thought the nomination was wrapped up, and she would not need those states.

They both miscalculated for separate reasons of political expedience.

So, this campaign is not about fairness. No one is getting a Scout Merit Badge.

If Obama wants to eliminate an issue from his GE campaign and if this thing is truly wrapped up, they should be seated.

But neither should be spouting platitudes about fairness. Nor should their supporters. People are not stupid, even in GDP.

[Iceburg]

31. Obama, Edwards, Richardson colluded, pulled a dirty trick that back fired

they collectively thought that if they withdrew their names from the MI ballot that the resultant candidate name ie "Uncommitted" would receive far more votes than Hillary -- but their evil plan backfired and Hillary received 55% of the total vote.

Further, not only was the initial plan by the terrible triumvirate a nasty trick, they followed up by having their respective campaigns encourage (via ads, flyers etc) the Michigan voters to vote for the "Uncommitted" candidate.

[cali]

4. I don't get that.

the number is 2025. It's always been 2025. And nothing can change that for this year.

[Tropics_Dude83]

13. Wouldn't it become 2,208 if Florida/MI are added to the voting totals?

Wolfson and Ickes seem to think so.

[ieoeja]

15. No, the number is "> 1/2".

If the total number of delegates at the convention increases, the number needed to win increases by half that number. So if Michigan and Florida delegates get to cast a vote, the total needed to win increases by half their vote.

However, the OP has made a mistake as well. If we revert to the minimum 50% punishment -- each vote cast by a Michigan or Florida delegate counts as only 1/2 a vote -- then the total needed to win increased by 1/2 of 1/2 which means a 25% increase in the total needed to win.

[AtomicKitten]

5. Because the contests were disqualified, a 50:50 split to seat the delegates is the fair solution.

[SoCalDem]

12. I would seat them with NO super delegates and proportional

disbursement of delegates..based on the final TOTAL pledged delegate percentages..

Those two states CHOSE to eliminate themselves from the legitimate process, so they should get pot-luck at the end..

If Obama ends up with a higher percentage of pledge delegates, that percentage of MI & FL goes to him..and the rest to HRC.. it's just that simple..

The Popular votes, as with ALL THE OTHER POPULAR VOTES FROM THE 48 STATES that followed the rule, are for "informational" purposes only...especially since Texas forward, the totals cannot be trusted for Hillary..

[AtomicKitten]

20. I believe the bylaws state clearly reinstating the disqualified states cannot change the outcome.

This is particularly of interest because the Clinton campaign is banking on it doing just that. Regardless of the final disposition, it appears Obama's lead is unassailable.

[Tropics_Dude83]

24. Can you confirm that bylaws info for us?-if so great news-n/t

[Andy823]

7. The way it looks

Hillary is not going to agree to anything unless she gets all her delegates in Michigan, and Obama gets none!

[On the Road]

8. I Think It's Important for FL and MI to be Seated

in order to prevent a Humphrey-style delegate challenge on the convention floor. If Obama accepts the actual results, even though the selection and favored Clinton, he eliminates that possibility.

I can't believe that Clinton would be successful in wooing superdelegates after she mathematically lost, no matter how close the margin.

[quantass]

9. k/r

[Hawkeye-X]

11. Hey look - just last week Tropics_Dude83 is for Hillary

And now he changed his avatar for Obama.

I'd take his word with a grain of salt.

That is all.

Hawkeye-X

[malik flavors]

17. i think the other one is tropics dude 88

[Joe the Revelator]

14. If he has more delegates he has more delegates. It doesn't matter if they cut the lead to even

one delegate, in the eyes of the supers, and the American people, Hillary would still be the loser.

[Tropics_Dude83]

16. Wolfson/Ickes say an under 100 delegate lead is what they need to fight all the way-n/t

[Joe the Revelator]

18. You're failing to understand that Wolfson/Ickes don't make the rules.

six months out, in order to buy time, they can talk about fighting for a hundred delegates until the cows come home. As it stands, the race has changed, and Hillary has lost. No more goalpost moving is going to change that.

[MadBadger]

19. Do you know if the Michigan Popular vote will count under the new plan?

[Tropics_Dude83]

21. Hillary will no doubt try to make it count-n/t

[SoCalDem]

22. popular vote counting is a Clintonian gimmick

popular vote was NEVER included in primary counting..

[Tropics_Dude83]

25. Chuck Todd wrote last week that regardless of what the Obama campaign thinks

That for many superdelegates, the popular vote will be considered an important factor, unfortunately. That was in first read.

[SoCalDem]

27. Maybe once, but no longer.. here's why..

She's BROKE.. the DNC has no money to prop her up
She has no coat-tails
She has no support from the African American community
She's never risen beyond the 40's
She's never lowered her negatives
She's got lots of "suspect" votes in her totals *post McCain clinching the nomination
They don't LIKE her (most of them)

[rodeodance]

28. Of course it will be important.

[AZBlue]

23. I don't know why the 50/50 plan isn't promoted more?

[Gore1FL]

30. The 2208 only counts if they take away ALL penalties

Hillary picks up 9-10 from MI, and about 35 from FL. the total delgates available = 157 of those He'll get 56,she'll get 101.

In the mean time, 2025+ 157/2 = 2103.5

of the 78.5 delegates he has to make up, he'll already have 56. Thus he has to add 22.5 to his magic number.-- So he'll need 198.5.

Hillary will subtract 23 from her magic number and need 303.5

Considering she is 20 Million in the hole, the SD's seem to be leaning towards Obama, and only need 100 of them by the end of the race in a worse case scenario. She'll need over 170.

FL and MI don't mean as much as the rhetoric from the Clinton camp makes it appear.

[FlyingSquirrel]

32. Obama can get 2208 easily.