Couple of questions for those expecting an Obama landslide in the fall

[Bake]

1. Please define "landslide."

2. How exactly do you expect that to happen? What states do you expect to win, and what states do you concede to Grandpa McLame?

In particular, I call your attention to

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May08.... .

This shows, as of current polls, that Obama would lead McCain by only ONE electoral vote, 264-263.

So where's the landslide?

Bake

[EFerrari]

1. I don't know about a landslide but we've had a brazillion new

registrations and the Republicans are being split because, hold onto your hat, McSame isn't conservative enough.

I think we can and will do this.

[Bake]

10. I think we can win.

But I also think it's going to be a squeaker, simply because the country is so divided. I'll be pleasantly surprised if I'm wrong, but the last thing we should do is get overconfident.

Bake

[dchill]

17. it's going to be a squeaker, simply because the...

media want it that way.

[Perry Logan]

57. Good point. I think it'll be a big win, but the media will try to make it look close.

[newmajority]

69. Not to mention the DIEBOLD machines

[EFerrari]

Imho, he'll get the votes. We have to mind election protection

because Rove has been setting up vote caging operations all over the country.

If our votes are counted, and we have to make damn sure they are, we'll win.

[4_Legs_Good]

26. I don't think the country is quite so divided as you believe

I may be wrong, but just the fact that George Jr. has a, what, 69% disapproval rating shows that almost everyone is fed up, almost everyone has buyer's remorse, and wants a new direction, and when looking at John McCain, the one thing I don't see is "a new direction".

David

[sandnsea]

50. See your sig line

Well, do you? I think the American people are finally ready to hear the bell of truth.

[Bake]

52. I **hope*** they are finally ready!

But sometimes I feel like a "stranger in a strange land."

Bake

[Kesaco]

2. Also, all the "CHANGE" he speaks of has to

pass the House and Senate first, otherwise it's just "HOPE".

[TNOE]

7. Its very likely to be a Dem

House & Senate. If they play the way the R's played under Bush - than Obama gets everything he wants.

[Bake]

TNOE, I think you used the term landslide in another thread.

I'd appreciate your perspective on my original question.

Thanks,

Bake

[TNOE]

45. Good memory.

I sure did.

My thoughts:

Luckily for us - Bush has pretty much destroyed the R party, just like everything else he has touched. Many, many R's that I have personally spoke with have said "never again" - I'll vote the for the black man - OR the white woman - I DON'T CARE WHICH.

The Evangelicals are unhappy - many will sit this one out.

Many of the black and white christians who voted for Bush based on his "christian values" (i.e. abortion) will go over to Obama.

The ECONOMY - and that's going to be the biggest one. Things are going to really be rough for a WHOLE lot of people by November. Food prices (shortages), gas prices, home foreclosures keep coming, jobs keep leaving, Iraq, war, etc., etc.

Once Obama and McCain get in a debate - its just going to be a slaughter. McCain is senile and he's so wrong on all the issues most Americans care about. McCain CANNOT INSPIRE. As a matter of fact - I'm willing to be - they (the R's) will have to pull McCain out once the spotlight really gets on him. He is stark raving mad.

[depakid]

56. Unfortunately, certain Democrats consistently cross over and vote with the far right

The same isn't true of Republicans- who can and do sustain filibusters.

Even with a 60 vote majority, it would still be very difficult to get responsible legislation passed.

Therein lies the structural fault with America's antiquated system.

[Skidmore]

8. The House and Senate will be Democrat too.

[Carrieyazel]

27. I agree. But Obama could be one of the few Dems who doesn't win in November.

[Skidmore]

41. Oh, he'll win.

Hillary would crater.

[Stop Cornyn]

3. "what states do you concede" -- that was part of Hillary's electoral model; it isn't part of Obama's

[Bake]

28. Do you really expect Obama to win any states in the South?

Or what about Florida?

I'm not willing to concede Ohio and Pennsylvania at this point, obviously. But I seriously doubt Obama will carry MS, AL, GE, LA, TN, SC. He may have a shot in NC but frankly I doubt it. He won't carry KY. He won't carry the safely "red" states, and surely his campaign knows that.

So my original question still stands.

Bake

[Carrieyazel]

47. He won't win any states in the South. Not a single one.

North Carolina, Florida and Virginia will likely be the closest, because of changing demos.
But not even close to a win. Too many of the "old guard" still remain there in a general election.

Obama's only hope is holding on to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin while flipping a number of states that went narrowly R last time around.

[AllentownJake]

4. Ask Hillary

About Obama's ability to turn things around given 6 months.

Tied with McCain going into the campaign against him....sounds good to me.

[wileedog]

5. Because the Polls 5 months ago had Hillary up by 30.

They are meaningless before the campaign has even started

[AndyA]

6. You're asking members of the Obama Glee Club to realistically answer you?

They have totally bought in to the M$M's "Let's make history!!!!!!!" campaign.

Barack can do no wrong.

Barack is perfect.

Barack is a saint who will lead us from these dark times into the light.

Barack wants equality for all. (Except gays, of course. :eyes: )

Blah blah blah.

You won't get a straight answer from them. They don't care about facts. They don't care about his record in the Senate which belies what he says he's going to do. They don't care about any of it. They're too far gone.

So please don't bother them with asking them to explain why they say one thing despite the fact that the facts aren't on their side.

:sarcasm: (For the challenged DUers.)

[hokies4ever]

11. Don't be a sore loser

and a prick at the same time. Quit crying and stick a pacifier in it. :rofl:

[AndyA]

62. I guess you (like so many others) assume I'm a Hillary supporter.

because I don't like Barack. Well, I'm not.

I don't support either of the current inferior Dem candidates.

Face the facts: McCain will move into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. While you've had you nose up Barack's butt, the M$M was planning the whole event.

I guess anyone who hasn't bought into the Obama bullshit is a prick in your book. You're not an @sshole. Really, you're not. :eyes:

[EFerrari]

53. Oh, please. And Hillary's record on GAYS is much worse than Obama's. n/t

[AndyA]

63. And here we go, ladies and gents...yet another ill-informed Obama supporter

(is there another kind?) who just naturally assumes if you don't like Barack, you gotta like Hillary.

WRONG.

Just like you're wrong about Barack being the answer to our problems. :eyes:

You always have to respond by condemning the other candidate, because you got NOTHING to defend Barack with. That sucks, doesn't it?

Well guess what: the GOP is going to spit Barack out in short order if he's the nominee.

[EFerrari]

73. No, Andy, I'm not an Obama groupie.

And I don't believe he is the answer to many problems. But he never ran national radio ads endorsing DOMA as the Clintons did, right?

Look to your own level of being "ill-informed".

And, he will win. The GOP is split and we will take the White House.

[scheming daemons]

9. Polls six months out are meaningless... ask President Dukakis....

[SurfingAtWork]

23. You stole my thunder, although I'll add

One of the big reasons why it is impossible to say how the polls will look 6 months from now is because a very big part of how McCain polls is tied to how the present situation is in Iraq. If things deteriorate there even more than they are now, it will hurt his #'s allot. Conversely, if we are going through a smooth patch, or unexpected political progress is made it will help his #'s somewhat. But yeah, the "my candidate can beat up your candidate and here are polls that were taken this week that are supposed to reflect how they will be half a year from now" arguments are pretty weak.

[bowens43]

12. I'm not expecting a landslide. I expect it to be close.

McCain is not the piss poor candidate many here would have us believe. And as we've seen , a large percentage hillary supporters intend to support McCain

Your 'electoral vote' vote poll is complete nonsense. Obama hasn't started running against McCAin yet.

[Bake]

16. I would imagine a lot of minds are made up by now.

Hard to turn on the TV without seeing something about the campaigns.

Bake

[Secret_Society]

13. I don't envision a close electoral race

I imagine that Obama either wins big or receives a spanking. Unlike Kerry, this won't be an election over Ohio and Florida. He is hoping to rework the map and when you try and do that you either win big or fail, IMO.

[TNOE]

54. And hopefully

Ohio and Florida won't be stolen this election cycle like it has been in every election since 2000.

[Bake]

64. I agree that we MUST ensure that doesn't happen again!

Not only OH and FL but other states as well!!

Bake

[baldguy]

14. 40 states

25% of registered Republicans will vote Democratic this year.
10% of registered Republicans will not vote at all.
and Democrats have a 10% advantage from new registered voters.

Obama also has FOUR TIMES more money than McCain.

[4_Legs_Good]

22. In 20 years I want to be hearing the term "Obama Republicans"

like we hear "Reagan Democrats" now.

David

[baldguy]

32. People are sick & tired of the status quo and see Obama trying to end it.

McCain/Clinton IS THE EMBODIMENT of the status quo.

[Carrieyazel]

33. 1/4 of all Republicans will vote for one of the most ideologically progressive Senators?

This is delusional. He'll be lucky to get 8%, as most Dems do.

[melody]

43. Half of Republicans have no idea why they're Republican

They choose it because their family did or their church did. When they see someone else they are more drawn to, they'll jump in a second. Most modern GOP wouldn't know what a "progressive" was if it bit them on the ass.

[baldguy]

49. They'll vote for someone with honesty & integrity who offers hope for the future.

Something McCain/Clinton can't offer.

[hokies4ever]

15. Just wait till it's Obama vs. McCain

and McCain finally realizes how much this country hates Bush. McCain's conservative base won't be turning out for him in the fall. Ron Paul supporters are NOT going to vote for McCain. Democrats will denounce McCain's never-ending Iraq War. Don't put money on McCain for the fall.

[FrenchieCat]

18. Here's my take.....

The GOP Base dislike McCain intently. Unless Hillary supporters are going to defect to McCain and become his base to help him turn the Supreme Court into a bastion of RWingness, he loses.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5880104

[Bake]

51. If the GOP base really loathes him as much as you say, how is he their nominee?

The GOP has a long history of getting in line and marching in lockstep. I realize some of the GOP base are not thrilled with Gramps, but I think by fall they'll get used to the idea.

I don't seriously expect a big flow of Hillary supporters to go to McCain, and I'm a Hillary supporter (as I'm sure you are aware). I was a Democrat long before I was a Hillary supporter.

Bake

[FrenchieCat]

59. By default........

They felt that they needed a war hero. Mittens is a mormon and a New Englander; they didn't want that. Hukabee is a fundie with scrupples; couldn't have that. The rest were the shits.

[4_Legs_Good]

19. These silly polls are a result of a 3 way race, which is fiction

I know they ask McCain v. Obama and McCain v. Clinton, but it's still a question that suggests a third choice. When it's down to Democrat v. Republican, these old polls will vanish.

George Jr. has the worst disapproval rating in history. Republicans WILL NOT win in November, and it's not just because Obama is a great candidate. We'll win big in the House, Senate and the White House.

Then we have 2 years to fix this country or our party is f*cked.

As to States, I'd say the following are in play:

NV, CO, NM, TX, KS, NE, IA, MO, LA, MS, AL, GA, FL, SC, NC, VA, IN, NH, OH

Most of which went George Jr. in 2004

David

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

20. Something like this:

[Bake]

31. Nice, but hardly realistic.

Thanks for wasting everyone's time.

Bake

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

36. Hope.

:rofl:

[sampsonblk]

21. This is an easy one

The landslide comes from the fact that the GOP faithful are as disgusted with their own party as the rest of the world is. Their turnout is a fraction of what our turnout has been. The polls you show reflect the middle of a nasty primary fight, in which our candidates aimed at each other instead of the GOP and their "war." Soon, Obama and Clinton will be working together to shore up our numbers.

Also, our big name party leaders have not been out carrying our party's message. They have been waiting on the sidelines hoping the voters would decide on a nominee. Once our guys take the field, the number will go back to being heavily in our favor.

I agree with Newt gingrich: Landslide.

[Carrieyazel]

37. That only applies to Senate, House, state races. Not Obama.

Obama will be a rarity on Election Night. A Democratic candidate who loses.

[Bok_Tukalo]

24. I would consider 350 electoral and 55 popular a landslide

He might do the popular vote but the Electoral will be difficult.

The states he has a good chance of poaching will be Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado. There are a few more that might make it but those are probably the best bet.

McCain has a shot at New Hampshire. That is about it that I can see this early.

[Exilednight]

25. Three months ago that same poll showed Obama winning by 30-40 electoral votes .........

basically, polls for the GE are meaningless. Theoretically, you could 1% of the popular vote and become President. Obama was smart enough to have a better strategy at winning the primary, (i.e.) win more delegates, and he is smart enough to put together a strategy to win the GE. You don't train to compete against the Indianapolis Colts the same way you train to compete against the New England Patriots.

[Bake]

35. C'mon, let's not bring football into it ...

And the Giants beat the Pats anyway!

:rofl:

Bake

[Exilednight]

46. That's because the Pat's trained to beat the Colts. New England was inevitable too. n/t

[SteppingRazor]

29. The electoral-vote.com map...

has NM, VA, FL, and OH going to McCain, and I think all of these can easily go blue. I think Obama can pursue a 50-state strategy, forcing McCain to spend money in otherwise uncontested areas (read: The South), leaving normally slightly red states there for the taking -- including not only the aforementioned states, but also Nevada and several others.

Played properly, a 50-state strategy coupled with a properly tailored regional mass media campaign could result in an electoral college win of about 340-198 or so.

[Bake]

38. Thanks for actually responding to my question!

I didn't post the OP to be flame-bait, but to encourage a serious discussion (and because I'd really like to know the answers ... I actually come here to learn sometimes).

Thanks!

:hi:

Bake

[Carrieyazel]

40. No, that is never going to happen. McCain has at least 240 EVs right now.

Ohio, Florida and Virginia are not winnable. He could make these three somewhat competitive, but still a loss.

[SteppingRazor]

48. I don't think you can show that definitively.

In the most recent polls (using electoral-vote.com as our guide, just to stick with the OP), McCain is only carrying Florida by a single percentage point. That will certainly change as we get a legitimate nominee and head into the general election. Regardless of which candidate gets the nod, they'll get a bump in the polls. And a Democrat can certainly take Florida -- Hillary's currently in the lead there.

Ohio, same deal. And Virginia will be bluer than ever this election season due to both down-ticket races and the expansion over the last four years of the deeply blue D.C. suburbs.

To sum up, I don't think anyone can characterize any of these states as "unwinnable." The demographics of all three of them, while differing from each other, all add up to possible -- perhaps even probable -- Democratic pick ups.

[Bake]

66. I disagree about Ohio.

The Rust Belt economy has been ravaged by years of the Bush corporate-friendly administration; lotsa folks out of work. We can win Ohio, if we WATCH THE DAMN VOTING MACHINES!!

Bake

[SteppingRazor]

68. The machines that, I'd like to point out, Florida has banned in time for the 2008 election...

it ain't like 2000 down here anymore.

[TNOE]

76. Now that's some great news

right there.

[Bake]

77. Yes it is!

Good news indeed!

Bake

[Exilednight]

58. If I were Obama, this is what I would do......

I would take a long hard look at Texas. Texas is currently, and has consistently been since McCain won the nomination, up for grabs. I would look at the possibility of putting a full court press on Texas. Obama will have the money on the money on his side. Obama still might lose, but heres the golden nugget. Texas has been a rethug stronghold since 1980, McCain does not want to be seen as the rethug who lost it to a Democrat for the first time in nearly 30 years. Push McCain to defending Texas. Make him waste his two most valuable resources which he has very little of, time, money, and surrogates, to defend rethug home turf. In turn, even if he loses Texas, this gives Obama a major edge in other states by keeping McCain tied up in one area.

McCain will then have to make a decision, defend Texas, or go after states like Pa, Fl, and Oh. Obama will be flush in cash in the GE, and McCain will scraping pennies together. Democrats can roll out a whole host of surrogates, there aren't that many rethugs that are currently in favor of the public. Who are they going to roll out? George W Bush?

[SteppingRazor]

60. That's what I'm talking about. Tack Richardson on the ticket, turn out the Latino vote...

win New Mexico, make McCain pay dearly for Texas, and even fight him in Arizona.

[Exilednight]

65. Exactly, and even if you lose; so what? Trade time and money in Texas ......

for winning other states. The playing field favors Obama. They're suiting up for the same game, but Obama has more resources at his disposal.

[stray cat]

30. I think a win for Hillary or Obama is not all that likely

[The Night Owl]

34. A lot of Obama supporters are counting on the youth vote coming through for Obama...

... you know... the same youth vote which let us down in 2004... and in 2000.

We are repeating the past. I've heard more than a few people here and on TV talking about how the youth vote is energized. BFD. Every election season, people talk about how the youth vote is energized and every election the youth vote screws us.

Maybe this time will be different, but I wouldn't bet anything of value on that. Fool me once and all that...

[H2O Man]

39. An Obama victory

by one electoral vote will be fine.

[Bake]

70. I don't disagree, but I've seen many throw around the word "landslide"

That's why I framed the OP the way I did. Overconfidence will kill us. I thought Kerry was a good bet in 2004, and Gore a sure bet in 2000. We don't need a rerun of those years.

Bake

[H2O Man]

75. Right.

I compare everything to boxing, and the only easy fights I ever had were those where I was fully prepared for anything and everything. It's the same with politics: we have the potential for a large democratic gain on all levels, but we must be fully prepared. The republican machine is not going to lay down without a fight.

[ClassWarrior]

42. I expect we'll have to work hard to earn whatever victory we get, thanks to the criminals...

...who run the Rape-Publican Party.

NGU.

[Faygo Kid]

44. Let's see: Today is May 8. Say what?!?

I'm planning for a win, not a landslide.

And it's all of May 8.

And you're bitter.

[Bake]

74. Who's bitter? I'm getting over it, like you told me to do.

As I said elsewhere, I was a Democrat before I was a Hillary supporter (she was my third choice, after Gore - sigh - and Edwards), and for the record I support our nominee. You've been telling me to get over it, to start thinking about the GE. So that's what I'm doing, and you trash me for doing it?

Looks to me like somebody ELSE needs to let something go ...

Sigh.

Bake

[damonm]

55. Linky no worky...

..although I worked around and got to it anyway.

And, while I don't expect Obama to win in a landslide, I DO expect him to win. He will hang on to the traditionally blue states, and there are several states Bush won in '04 that should go blue this time around, CO and IA in particular. If you look more closely at the state-by-state data, you'll see that McCain has but a single-digit lead in OH, ,SC, NC, TX, NM, NV, NE, MN, MO, FL, IN, AZ (!) and AK. Given Obama's demonstrated ability to close leads, his superior resources and fundraising ability, and the simple fact that he hasn't yet BEGUN to take his real shots at McCain, all leave me feeling warm & fuzzy about Obama's chances in the GE.
Add to that that Obama's already beaten the most formidable candidate out there (Clinton - let's face it, McCain isn't in her league), and I see Obama winning handily.

[livingmadness]

61. I absolutely expect a landslide

for EITHER Obama or Clinton. I wonder if people realize, now only how bad things are, but how much worse they are going to get. Really. The cost of gas is never, NEVER going down again - expect constant rises which is now and forever going to effect the cost of food and pretty much anything that we rely on coming to us from a distance. There are whispers about an attack on Iran - MORE war. The Republicans are in a panic now (see Gingrich yesterday) they're losing special elections all over the show. Pull up all of the data you like on polling at present, but any expert will tell you it is essentially meaningless this far out and with a nominee still not crowned. Bush's approval ratings are crap, more people are worried about his ties to McCain than Wright/Obama and the Republican base is not even unified around their candidate. This is going to be a great year for Democrats IMO, but a really, REALLY tough road is ahead cleaning up the mess the Republicans have created. If Obama had relied on polling data 12 months ago for the likelihood of him winning the nomination, he probably have bothered. And look what has happened.

[depakid]

67. McCain has a pretty decent shot at 270, even without New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Ohio

People calling for a landslide aren't being realistic. At best, this will be a squeaker, which need I add, makes it much easier to steal.

[GoesTo11]

71. I think HRC is a much tougher opponent than McCain, so Obama should do well in GE

McCain might have the same consultant-driven kitchen sink as HRC, but he isn't personally much of a strategist and his team isn't all that clever. He sort of backed into the nomination as all the other Republican contenders self-combusted. McCain is not 1/10th the debater that HRC is - he doesn't seem to understand the issues himself and he doesn't think on his feet that well, and he can't even book up that well. He can't deliver a canned line effectively. He probably can't keep up as hectic a schedule. He has a lot of gaffes. He has all sorts of questionable things from his personal life and lobbyists etc. He's tied to Bush. His main positive attributes are: war hero, has occasionally bucked his party line (to his credit) and has a little more convincing old boy thing going.

McCain is on paper a very weak candidate - compare to Bush Jr., Dole, Bush Jr., Reagan, Ford, Nixon, Goldwater, Nixon, Eisenhower. He basically seems weaker than the ones who have won.

Obama has some strengths (charisma, ran a damn good campaign), some weaknesses (experience, effects of racism). Compare him to:
Kerry, Gore, Clinton, Dukakis, Mondale, Carter, McGovern, Humphrey, Johnson, Kennedy. He basically seems stronger than those who have not won.

It's hard to say exactly how it will play out, but we could be pleasantly surprised by the dynamics.

[Carrieyazel]

78. Hillary is not a tougher opponent than McCain. She showed that all year.

Hillary is not a good politician by any measure, not very skilled, makes boneheaded errors, has no original or creative thinking in her skill set; she never has been a natural politician like her husband, and blew a nomination in which she held many of the cards.

McCain came back from the dead, and showed shrewdness by skipping states he knew he wouldn't win, (like Iowa, where Hillary foolishly spent $20 million in a lost cause).

[Rowdyboy]

72. Only someone ignorant of American history would predict a landslide of any sort this year....

Just think how many Democrats have won in the last 100 years. There was 1964 when, following an assassination we ran against a right-wing nutcase, Barry Goldwater. The Great Depression helped FDR to a few landslides but thats it.

I expect Obama will win, with 20-30 electoral votes to spare. Same with Senator Clinton. Neither will deliver a landslide in 2008, but 2012 is a different story altogether. If Republicans lose in 2008 they will implode and the far right will take charge making a 2012 re-election bid a potential blowout.

Time will tell, but I'd be amazed at a landslide in 2008.