My Take: If Hillary Nets 540,000 Votes Out Of WV, KY, And Puerto Rico..We're Going To The Convention

[malik flavors]

I just want to send a little wake up call to my fellow Obama supporters not only to stop harassing Hillary supporters (because it's rude, divisive, and immature), but also to not get too far ahead of ourselves when saying this nomination is a wrap. If the Clintons are known for anyhting it's that they never give up and, whether you want to believe it or not, they still have a chance to pull this off. Much like the author of the article I'm basing my argument off of, i'm a bit of a contrarian and I'm also not one to claim victory until I can hold it in my hands, and this victory is still outstanding.

Here's the scenerio:

Kentucky and West Virginia are built perfectly for Hillary. Even in the states Where Obama was victorious, in the regions of those states where the demographics were similar to Kentucky and West Virginia's Hillary won those regions overwhelmingly, we're talking 70%/30%.

For the past week Bill "Bubba" Clinton has been making 7 campaign stops a day in West Virgina galvanizing the Hillary base and getting out the vote, Obama hasn't even been there yet. They're looking for a serious landslide. If West Virginia turns out in the same margins that states since March 4th have averaged, that would imply a net of about 150,000 votes for Clinton.

The week after West Virginia we go to Kentucky where the demographics are basically the same and she could win yet again by 40 points, doubling up on West Virginia with a net gain of about 140,000 votes.

So she just netted 290,000 votes cutting Obama's lead to about 410,000. Obama then nets about 100,000 out of Oregon, so now he's up by 510,000 votes.

Then it's on to Puerto Rico where there are 2 million registed voters. Puerto Ricans vote in abnormaly large number and this will be the most important primary of their lives, so I guarantee turnout will be enormous. Hillary could net up to 250,000 votes out of Puerto Rico cutting Obama's lead down to 260,000.

Obama will then net about 50,000 votes out of Montana, and another 50,000 out of South Dakota. That ends the primaries with Obama ahead in the popular vote by about 360,000 votes...but, you didn't forget and Michigan and Florida did you? Because I assure you the Clintons won't.

Hillary won Florida by 300,000 votes, and in Michigan (though Obama wasn't on the ballot) even if Clinton agreed to a compromise there she could push for it to be seated in a way so that she nets around 100,000 votes out of it. There will be no compromise on Florida from the Clintons. They won't budge unless it's seated as is, and Obama won't budge either because they agreed those states wouldn't count, SO IT'S OFF TO THE CONVENTION. The only place where this sort of thing can be settled.

If at the time of the convention in August polls show Hillary running stronger against McCain nationally and in battle ground states don't be suprised if she gets the states seated in a way that gives her the popular vote count and a metric that would allow her the nomination. We thought it was unfair when courts gave Bush the white house, but they did it anyway. Just because it might be unfair to give Hillary the popular vote doesn't mean they won't figure out a way to do it anyway. Yea Afircan-Americans might stay home, yea young voters might stay home, bla bla bla they don't care. I promise you it could happen.

So there it is, Hillary's path to the nomination and whether people want to believe it, or not, it is possible. But what's REALLY possible is this going to the convention if she wins big on Tuesday and then again in Kentucky and Puerto Rico. So what happens on Tuesday is going to be huge.

I already know what a lot of you will say: "It's delegates that elect," "Puerto Rico can't even vote for president," "The super delegates will end the race in early June," "They'll never do that," "It won't happen."

Go ahead and keep thinking that if it gives you comfort and allows you to sleep at night, but don't forget who we're dealing with here. No offense to the Clintons but I think we can all agree that they're probably the most power hungry and relentless family in American politics, and as an Obama supporter I'm very aware of their ability to take this to its furthest limits.

I can guarantee you that if Hillary can get within 400,000 votes of Obama before the seating of Michigan and Florida she WILL take this to the convention. That's regardless of whether or not you think popular vote should be a deciding factor, because it is a deciding factor in HER mind, and that's all she's really concerned about at the moment. She feels dissed and rejected. She saw Obama take his victory lap on Capitol Hill, she saw the cover of the new Time magazine, she heard what Ted Kennedy said, and she's pissed. She will absolutely burn down this town if it could mean she'll get the last word, and that's exactly what she's planning on doing. Bill's already said they're taking it to the convention, and he meant it.

If you're going to prove me wrong, please do it with some numbers, or facts, or atleast a decent argument. Trust me, I want to be proven wrong but it's going to take more than the usual response that comes along with a thread like this. PLEASE prove me wrong, but do it with something solid to stand so I can actually be somewhat convinced, because in my mind we're already at the convention.

Here's the source for my numbers and info.: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/05/not_quite_yet_1.html

I'd also like to add that I was very fair to Hillary and that this is an honest analysis. I didn't attack her (unless you consider "power hungry" an attack, and if so I apologize), so I'd appreciate it if her supporters didn't attack me. Hell, they should be happy about this thread. It's certainly the scenerio they're hoping to see this fall.

[BearSquirrel2]

1. We've heard this before ...

Dude, have you been even remotely paying attention? Hillary starts with these leads in pretty much ALL states (except Illinois). Than Obama arrives and he either beats Hillary or closes the gap. This is why the Hilbot insistence on including Florida and Michian are so ridiculous.

[malik flavors]

4. Well let's see what happens Tuesday then. I hope you're right.

But if she nets 150,000 on Tuesday, she'll be on track to the convention.

That's all i'm saying.

[Kahuna]

60. Nonsense. It's over. Period. The elected delegates are all that matter now.

Not a popular vote lead with PR, MI and FL. The SDs have already taken those vote totals into consideration and they matter not.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

69. Rassmussen says if she won every delegate next that she's still out

they are going to quit tracking polls of Hillary vs Obama soon, they said
Obama is the presumptive nominee.

[ORDem]

86. Yep. Straw grasping is growing extremely tiring.... nt

[my3boyz]

97. Not gonna happen in a state like West Virginia. nt

[tabatha]

2. That does not help with delegates.

Hillary said it was all about delegates at the start of the primaries.

[malik flavors]

3. She doesn't care about delegates anymore. She hasn't cared about delegates since Feb.

She's going for the popular vote.

I already predicted people would make this argument. It doesn't matter what the rules are, she's going to the convention.

[tabatha]

18. Is this to be the only election in the history of the United States

that does not count delegates?

[malik flavors]

36. Well, that is what the super delegates were created for.

There's a first for everything.

[ButterflyBlood]

And she needs over 80% of those remaining to win

It's not going to happen. End of story.

[rocktivity]

41. She's "going for the popular vote" because she CAN'T get the delgates

She doesn't like Obama's speeches because hers aren't as good

She doesn't like Obama's rallies because hers aren't as well attended

She doesn't like caucuses because Obama defeats her more often

She doesn't like delegates because she doesn't have as many as Obama does

And rules don't "matter" to her whenever she can't win by them.


:headbang:
rocknation

[Kahuna]

61. Who gives a hoot what she goes for. The rules have already been established

and they won't be changed to suit her.

[cali]

98. highly doubtful

Why? SDs don't want it going to the convention. They'll keep endorsing Obama, and by June 4 he'll have 2025.

[MonkeyFunk]

94. of course it's about delegates

superdelegates.

[VolcanoJen]

5. Well, I've been working my ass off for Obama in Northern Kentucky...

.. the second most populated area of Kentucky. It's strong for Obama, and from what I've seen of crosstabs so far (polling in KY has been slight), they haven't been polling it, maybe because they consider it "Cincinnati" and not "Kentucky."

Another important "fine print" point likely missed by many pundits... Kentucky isn't just a closed primary state, their registration rules are positively draconian. The deadline for currently registered voters to switch parties was December 31, 2007. Long before this contest ever began, so no chance of crossover shenanigans in the Bluegrass. It's all down to the diehard Democrats, and I'll take my chances as an Obama supporter with that crowd. I have a feeling a lot of voters on both sides are going to be surprised when they show up at the polls and find that they are registered Independents, something Kentuckians take pride in.

I don't see Obama winning the state... but he'll close that ridiculous gap. All I've seen out of this neck of the woods is utter disgust at the Clintons and their race-baiting and whipping-up of old wounds lately. Kentuckians take offense at it. Give them a little more credit, and let's see what happens.

Isn't Oregon more populous than Kentucky and West Virginia, by the way?

[malik flavors]

12. That's good to hear, thanks for the report. A truly closed primary.

No independents hurts a bit, but atleast there won't be any operation chaos.

If he campaigns there I think he can cloase the gap for sure. My worry about WV is that he hasn't even been there yet. Hopefully he spends equal time between Kentucky and Oregon.

I think Oregon has 2 million registered dems, but i'm not sure how much Obama is truly favored by. SOme polls suggest solid double digits and some single digits. If he can pull another North Carolina there I think that will go a lon way.

In my mind, his goal should be to be able to seat Michigan and Florida as is, and still be ahead in the popular vote. That's the only way he can prevent this from going to the convention.

[John Q. Citizen]

59. If that happens then the goal of every state party in the future should be to break the

rules to help yourself.

I still believe that the enough super delegates are going to go for Obama (about 60 more) so that he has 2024 total by June 3rd. I don't believe the party is suicidal enough to allow this to go to the convention.

[davidpdx]

35. Jen, that's interesting about Kentucky's voter rules

I had no idea about that. I think you are right about people showing up to the polls and not realizing they can't vote. We've heard reports of this happening in other states, but since the deadline for people in Kentucky to change their registration was so long ago, this might be a huge factor in the outcome. Hopefully he'll close to within 12 points and the outcome will be 56-44%.

West Virginia and Kentucky are pretty close in population. Oregon has just over 3 million, so it's a bit bigger.

[VolcanoJen]

78. Kentucky party-switching hasn't been very well advertised

There have been huge "new" voter registration drives, but I think some GOPers are going to be in for a little surprise when they try to pull The Rush and show up at Bluegrass polls come a week from Tuesday. :-)

[davidpdx]

81. No kidding

That could actually be pretty funny.

[Cha]

40. Thanks so much, VolcanoJen!

I talked to my daughter in Portland, Ore tonight and she said.."I hear we're going to decide the primary?!" I said, I dunno but please vote for Obama on the 20th and she said "no problem".

[VolcanoJen]

77. My pleasure, and Obama will give his victory speech in Oregon, most likely

Your daughter should be THRILLED!!! She'll be a part of history, and I can't wait. :bounce: :bounce:

(I'm kinda jealous)

[Cha]

82. Oh, that's right..I forgot..

May 20th..Declaring Victory Day. That's what she was talkin' about..thanks:) 6 degrees of declaring victory day:P

[PBS Poll-435]

48. Jen -

Oregon awards one more delegate than Kentucky.

Puerto Rico awards 3 more delegates than Oregon


Assuming every state goes to who we think they are going to,

Hillary's KY, PR, WV total 134 delegates.

Obama's MT, SD, OR total 83 delegates.

[mckeown1128]

67. You realize 1 it isn't winner take all...

and two... even if she took all the delegates...(and I mean ALL) she prob still wouldn't make the cut now that Obama is picking up SDs.

[PBS Poll-435]

70. WHOA

Just clarifying how many PDs were left.

You asked about KY vs OR and I just decided to give all the information I had.

:)

[VolcanoJen]

74. Obama's already won the pledged delegates.

And it's a race for delegates. It's called "How The Party Chooses Its Nominee."

I was just kinda playing along with this new "popular vote including Michigan+Florida+Puerto Rico but caucus states that don't count popular vote don't matter" game you're all so fond of playing lately.

You're adorable.

[PBS Poll-435]

76. Please read post 70. I replied thinking that it was you, but alas

I was fooled again.

I was making NO argument, estimation, or inference.

Just providing the facts.

[VolcanoJen]

80. Thank goodness you admit you weren't making an "argument"

Because Post #70 doesn't catch Hillary up in pledged delegates. Not even close.

[PBS Poll-435]

85. I never said it did.

Just listed delegates.

HILLARY IS NOT GOING TO CATCH UP IN PLEDGED DELEGATES. EVEN COUNTING DELEGATE-RICH CUBA, CANADA, AND MEXICO.

There, you have me on record.

;-)

[Secret_Society]

68. I would think a closed primary would help HRC

Since Obama has broader appeal among independents and disgruntled republicans?

[VolcanoJen]

75. Until one discovers that one has been a Registered Independent

And can't vote in the Kentucky Primary, no matter how much they like Hillary or Barack.

And no GOP Shenanigans. Let's be honest with ourselves about those crossovers.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

72. have you heard of the robo calls by "Lamont Williams"

a voter registration group has been making robo calls in NC with a fictious
african american male voice claiming to be "Lamont Williams".

It tells the voter that a registration packet is on the way, and that they
are to complete the registration form AND THEN they can vote.

So registration forms, maybe not ones that are legal to use in your state - are
on their way from Womens Voices, Women Vote. Also called "The Voter Participation Project"
(but in fine print).

The mailers provide a postage paid envelope to be sent to your SOS, and many recipients
mistakenly believe the mailer was approved by your election officials.

[ORDem]

88. Yes, OR will be producing 65 delegates total: 55 PD, 10 SD. Our rep. DeFazio

helped Obama go ahead of Hillary on the SD count today. :bounce:

May 20th is our primary (but we've had our ballots for a week or so already) and we'll be putting Obama over the top (as in a majority of) the pledged delegates on that day.

I think Hillary's last tactic is going to be holding a gun to the head of a small animal and threatening to blow its brains out if she doesn't get the nomination "right now! Dammit!". "Give me the nod or the squirrel dies!" :rofl:

:dem:

[FrenchieCat]

6. I'm still trying to figure out why Puerto Rican people would vote for

someone who is racially divisive.

What am I missing? Do they like voting for someone using who in essence only cares about them....for now? :shrug:

[anigbrowl]

15. I don't think Puerto Rico is necessarily going for Clinton

She says she has the Latino demographic, but then she says she has the white working demographic as well, which is BS. California has a lot of Latinos but they've tilted to Obama according to recent surveys. What's Clinton going to offer Puerto Ricans, say she'll make them a state? BS. Obama has just as good a chance there as she does.

[FrenchieCat]

24. That's what I'm thinking.....

Cause any of them who have followed this contest can see that this woman doesn't have their best interest at heart. People of all hues seem "expandable" depending on the need at the time it is required.

So Obama is out there saying what a good person Hillary is,

Meanwhile both Bill and Hillary and all of their surrogate continue to trash Obama and cast doubts on his Presidency.

I ain't welcoming Hillary supporters till this is a done deal. I'm not gonna have them lull me into a false sense of security. Like Obama said, it ain't over till it is all the way over....and as long as Hillary's campaign breathes anykind of life, and like Skinner said; it goes on.

[ZinZen]

29. My opinion is she got the Latino vote

here in CA on 2/5 was on name recognition only. Plus the Latino mayor in L.A helped, but she does not have a monopoly on the Latino vote.

[FrenchieCat]

49. I don't think so either....especially after revealing her true self.

It ain't like they weren't paying attention, I would hope. Nevada was a long time ago. Texas even.

[RaleighNCDUer]

56. And you know, of course, that there really is no such thing as the

'Latino vote'. There are Mexican Americans. Cuban Americans. Puerto Ricans. All very distinct and seperate communities, and there's no reason to think that any one necessarily has the same priorities, or proclivities, as any other.

Basing her expectations with Puerto Ricans on her reception by Latinos in the SW is unrealistic, at best.

[4themind]

57. And she'd probably not be well served in referring to Puerto Ricans as Latino's

:9

[VolcanoJen]

87. Has she made a wispy "I'll fight for your statehood" promise to them yet?

You know, like in Guam? Still waiting for her to find a House member to propose a Constitutional amendment.

Guam is tapping its foot...

[Tatiana]

95. Mark my words: they won't. n/t

[DevonRex]

104. And most Puerto Ricans are of mixed heritage, AA/Latino along

with indigenous from way, way back.

However, it is true that Puerto Rico and New York have strong ties. The term is New Yorican. I know this because my first husband was a New Yorican. Until then I didn't even know there was such a term.

[frogcycle]

7. well done

you lay out a scenario that could come to pass, Then again, she could do less well in all or some of those states. Time will tell. I neither support nor attack your numbers - it sounds like you did your homework, and there is no point in quibbling over them - they are somebody's projection, and only the reality that will come in due course can prove them right or wrong.

The main point to be taken from your work is - everyone should stop yammering and inventing "facts" and just play it out, campaigning their butts off for their candidate. All the whining and demanding is unproductive since it won't influence anyone, and is energy that could be put into actually SUPPORTING the candidate.

[Ioo]

8. You forgot that you have to ignore all the Causus states

I am sorry but this is total BS. You are saying that if she wins this way and that way and maybe this way, she wins this group. Now keep in mind this TOTALLY IGNORES ALL CAUCUS STATES. So to win Hillary has to tell the people of Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, Hawaii, and Wyoming that because they did not VOTE, the CAUCUSED that they do not count...

Sorry if that is how you have to win, you have lost...

[malik flavors]

21. She's already said caucus states don't matter time and time again.

That doesn't phase her even a bit. She'll wear t-shirts that say "suck my caucus," just to let you know exactly how little she cares.

That means NOTHING to her. She wants this nomination, and caucus voters certainly won't stop her.

[Ioo]

25. So she says puerto rico counts, but real states don't - if that is how she plans to win F HER!

I mean it people, I think they both suck, but looking at how she is acting, I hope that she has her ass handed to her. She is acting like such a republican.

[datopbanana]

9. Maybe if popular vote mattered.

[FrenchieCat]

10. I agree.......

They will never give up....and the media will help them, when the times comes......cause this is the media's last chance before their asses get regulated. They do not want to see an Obama Presidency if it kills them and they lose all credibility.

[milkyway]

11. I'm actually looking forward to hearing the Clintons argue that Puerto Rican voters count and caucus

voters in Iowa and other caucus states do not.

For years I've thought that the democratic nomination should be decided by whoever wins the popular vote in Puerto Rico. I'm surprised the DNC hasn't changed the rules already. :)

The Clintons actually sound like they're threatening to take it to the convention. Bill told WV voters that if they come out in large numbers for Hillary they'll give the supers a lot to think about for three months this summer.

I don't know if they actually mean this, or if they're just saying it to suck more money from their marks.

[Ioo]

13. Don't forget Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska....

Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, Hawaii, and Wyoming

Hillary wants all of these states to not count...

[VolcanoJen]

20. I mean, really. Try selling "Puerto Rico counts" to the supers, let alone the media.

The whole thing just contradicts the Clintonian "electoral polls" argument on its face, doesn't it?

[tabatha]

47. I thought they had changed and are not going to hold cacuses.

[grantcart]

14. You are aware that he just packed away 10 super delegates today

some of them like 'undeclared' SD from Hawaii and 2 Richardson confidents were on the shelf ready for movement.

Expect another 10 tomorrow and Sunday talk about the math


Also on May 21st the Clintons are going to have a major PR problem when their finance numbers come out and it shows that they 'exaggerated about their $ 10 million day' and they are flat broke.

Today only 16 of 69 Congressional supporters offered to sign a letter reaffirming their support of Hillary.


May 20th this whole thing ends.

[malik flavors]

55. I guess if enough supers actually go to him it could end it, but...

the thing is everyone has to feel like this contest ended fairly for the party to truly unite.

If the supers end the raise before MI and FL are seated in a way Hillary agrees to, she will feel it wans't fair and neither will her supporters.

That's why supers aren't flocking now, they can't just end it. They'll have to figure out FL and MI and Obama will need to still lead in the pop. vote for everything to work smoothly.

[4themind]

58. Obama will still control the credentials committee at the convention IMO

as long as he has more pledged delegates on the floor of the convention, even if she brings up a minority report, I don't think it'll pass. ALthough if it gets to that point I think we're fucked either way.

[ShortnFiery]

16. The Clintons are doing a political remake of "The Devil's Rejects" and it's Freaking me OUT!

And yeah, I'd cast Terry McCullife as Capt. Spaulding. :scared: :puke: :scared: :nuke:

[TexasObserver]

17. My take: it's OVER. Her campaign is on life support and dying fast.

Like a team far behind and trying to get some cheap baskets at the end of a blow out loss, she will try to make the score look better, but she's beaten.

Her backers among superdelegates are flaking on her big time. It's over.

[Joe the Revelator]

19. WV has less then 2 million people total in it

She's not netting 150k out of WVA nor is she getting that from the 3 million people in KY. Of these states, Oregon is the largest population wise, and Obama has a huge lead there, just as large as Hillary's in WV and KY.

[Ioo]

23. I live in WV and voted today... for John Edwards... Did Hill know that?

I was at the court house today to early vote here in Jefferson Co. I think what Clinton is not seeing is that many people see the end is near and do not want to throw away the vote... there was a chat about it in the line...

The other thing is JOHN EDWARDS is still on the ballot in most of the state...

[dbmk]

108. Well..

Since Edwards supporters seem to break more for Obama than Hillary, thats actually to her advantage. More so if he stays under the 15% viability. Which is probably a 99.99% certainty.

[VolcanoJen]

26. And, I posted this above, Kentucky's draconian party-switching rules present problems...

... for Clinton that nobody seems willing to point out. In order to vote in the primary, you had to have switched party affiliation on December 31, 2007, long before Kentuckians were plugged into this race.

I'll take my chances in Kentucky. And from what I'm hearing around the water cooler, folks are good and pissed off about this latest "hard working white Americans" tack.

Plus, it's the Bluegrass State, home of the Kentucky Derby. Folks don't much like betting on losers.

If anything, I think the turnout in KY and WV will be slightly depressed, with OR more enthusiastic. And Puerto Rico? That's just crazy talk.

[CakeGrrl]

22. She's *been* yammering about the popular vote

and even if she closes the gap, the SDs are taking more into account.

SDs are trickling toward Obama AND defecting from Clinton as we speak. For them, the popular vote arguments forthcoming from the final contests are moot. They've based their decision on other considerations, as have a number of other undeclared - but not unDECIDED - superdelegates.

As has been said, there are several factors that can work for Obama to close the gap in WV and KY. Look at the final PA results - not even a 9% win for Clinton and she lost 20K votes out of that, and IN was whittled down to 0.8%.

Since the Clinton supporters are so fond of asterisks, let's put a big one next to any popular vote gain in Puerto Rico if they're not going to count as votes in the GE.

Then there are the caucuses...you can't make a conclusive popular vote argument without being able to factor them in, but how do you factor them in? That really makes the PV argument even flimsier.

Then this last-ditch "I'm bringing the uneducated white vote / whites won't vote for Obama" Clinton campaign meme might just be annoying enough to backfire on them down this stretch, as so much else has for them during this campaign. As well it should.

And then, there's always...the money. How much can she funnel into this campaign to push it this far? We'll see in a couple of weeks how bad off they really are.

[still_one]

27. This goes to the convention undecided, we lose.

There is no way in hell that they can seat MI without a compromise, because Obama wasn't even on the ballot.

[Ioo]

31. Hillary does not care about Nov, she will sink us all if she does not win. All about her!

the dems can kiss her ass if we do not hand it to her

[still_one]

92. I agree, but I also believe the more she trys to destroy Obama, the stronger he gets

[Blondiegrrl]

28. If Hillary nets only 100 votes, we're still going to the convention.

The woman is too egotistical to know when to quit.

[RBInMaine]

30. No, it's not a wrap as of yet, but the NEGATIVITY has come from Team-Hilly, NOT US !

[PM7nj]

32. The Superdelegates won't let that happen... nt

[RBInMaine]

33. If he's got the delegates sewn up, it AINT going to the convention.

[IsItJustMe]

34. You have to be a Republican. This goes to August and any fool know the Democrats loose in November.

[malik flavors]

42. Are you kidding? This is a worst case scenerio for me. I'm just saying it's possible.

[tabatha]

51. It is "lose" not "loose".

Loose sounds like moose.

No, the democrats will win in November no matter what.

[Nia Zuri]

37. One little problem with that...

It's about delegates. She doesn't get to change the rules just cuz she doesn't like the outcome. She lost. That is all.

[barack the house]

38. You're more than right.

[Gore1FL]

39. Two issues

1> You left out Oregon.

2> The popular vote is a canard.

[rocktivity]

53. Three more issues

3> Obama now has 262 superdelgates
4> Obama is now 8 delegates away from making it impossible for Hillary to take the delegate lead
5> Obama could be 127 delegates away from having 2025 before the WV polls even open

:headbang:
rocknation

[Snarkoleptic]

43. 39 posts and zero recs...because...you know...you suck....

Keep moving those goalposts...mebbe it will help...NOT.

[malik flavors]

52. Uh, I'm an Obama supporter. I'm just giving us a dose of reality that this thing isn't done yet.

Don't get mad at me, get on the phone and starting calling people in WV and KY if you're concerned.

[Erin Elizabeth]

44. Have you seen that he's ahead in superdelegates now, too?

[casus belli]

45. So how does she get there broke?

I don't care if she wins both contests 70/30, it does nothing to change Obama's lead in popular vote, delegates, and now super delegates. Unless she wants to end the race broke, she should start looking for a way out.

[malik flavors]

46. All of you that think the popular vote holds no weight in the democratic party after what...

happened to Al Gore in 2000 are crazy.

The rules say it's delegates, but there will be an intense argument by the Clinton camp for the popular vote.

AND, if she does win the popular vote and doesn't get the nomination her supporters will have a more legit reason the start protests and stay home or vote for mcCain.

Right now they have no argument against Obama, but if she wins the popular vote they will raise hell, and I guarantee you that.

Obama has to has to win this by every metric to keep her supporters from screaming foul and starting trouble.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

62. I didn't know there were caucus states in the 2004 general election...

[Hippo_Tron]

50. I will believe her winning 70/30 in West Virginia when I see it

Obama didn't even do that poorly among her prime demographic of "working class whites" in Pennsylvania or Ohio.

[4themind]

54. Very good analysis but I think there are a few things you may want to consider

-I think your estimate on W.V. could be that grim for obama, especially since WV IS an open primary, so that's another thing to wonder about, but:

-I think obama's margin in Oregon will be higher by 100,000 based upon the polls now have obama trending upward to 12% by the latest RCP estimate and and average of 9% over the past month. 2.2 million ballots were mailed out, and I think this will facillate even higher turnout than we've seen thus far, possibly netting obama and extra 40,000 votes or so (or 140,000 total).

-Also the official results from Ohio just came in today, and buttressed obama's win there by over 20,000 so let's say that's +60,000 for obama over your estimate

-In puerto rico, hey have a very high turnout, so let's take the recent presidential election (2004, which are traditionally higher than primaries) and just use that number, so that year the total number of voters (who can also vote in the dem primary) is 1,994,269. Let's assume that obama loses by 13%, which is from what I believe to be the most recent poll <http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/10/3556/36298> (he's been weakned now that the govenor was endite, but he does have a hispanic U.S. govenor in richardson who can be sent out too). So 13% of 2,000,000 is 260,000 give or that would be -10,000 for obama under your estimate.

-In total then I would have him up by an extra +50,000 votes or 410,000 votes so he'd still be short, but here is the thing!

-The other thing is that the ~700,000 estimate that you have from RCP does NOT include IA, NV, ME, WA* , and they can't make a logical argument for having MI, and FL in but without data from IA, NV, ME, WA, that would be by definition not "counting all of the votes" regardless of the reason. And we need OFFICIAL releases on those numbers not just RCP estimates, just like the superdelegates should be using secretary released state numbers for ALL the states.

-Now assuming she's still ahead, I STILL think it may not necessarily go to the convention, the superdelegates know that going to the convention essentially = failure if the last 40 years have taught us anything especially with an electorate split down the middle. They WILL go to one side or the other. Now the loser can hang around afterwards for as long as they want, but I imagine the winner will focus on McCain, while shoring up the superdels behind the scenes. It would be counter productive for the losing candidate to run attack ads against the winner, especially after all of the votes are in, they will appeal directly to the superdelegaes or risk a back lash from this same group in my view. Heck they may even be able to organize enough to create a draft agreement for the candidates to agree to some rules on this (a cease fire if you will) . I HOPE it works out in obama's favor but we'll see

[malik flavors]

63. Those are all really great points, but even under your analysis it's still likely...

we'd go to the convention.

Figuring out the votes from the caucus states (you're talking about those states caucus votes, correct?)would take time, and the number would be disputed, and that in itself would be a healthy fight. And then Fl and MI would need to be figured out and all of this would be happening between June and August. By the time it all got figured out, we'd already be at the convention.

The Supers would certainly like to just end it by going to the delegate winner, but as long as Hillary has an argument to make she won't feel the nomination was fairly given to Obama, and neither will her supporters. The party won't be able to fully accept Obama as the nominee and fully come together unless Obama without question wins the pop. vote, the delegates, and contest won.

If it all ended right now Obama would win it fair and square and we'd be in great shape, but if he can't seat FL and MI and still be leading in the Pop. vote, Hillary and her supporters won't be happy and there will protests a plenty.

Sucks but it's true. He has to win every metric with FL and MI counted in order to truly put it to bed.

[Hamlette]

64. how good of an argument is it to include PR when the point you are making is popular vote

plus, seems you need to count some factor for caucus states which puts Obama at 820K lead right now

And I don't see PR turnout that great, TPM guessed 900K.

I'd also be surprised to see her get 70/30 in WV and KY

She might cut into his lead by a max of 150K meaning with FL he is STILL way ahead.

I don't think anyone will take her seriously if she wants to count popular vote in MI.

That's just crazy.

[malik flavors]

66. Howard Wolfson said on hardball that they're counting the Pop. Vote out of Puerto Rico.

Chris Matthews was shocked.

Wolfson was shocked that Matthews was shocked.

[Hamlette]

96. I just saw that, Chris was laughing at Wolfson.

as well he should have.

It is ridiculous.

[Colobo]

65. Puerto Rico will be closer than what you think.

[cemaphonic]

71. Why should the SDs care about the popular vote in PR?

I've seen this sort of scenario before, and I find it puzzling. The whole point of Clinton's popular vote gambit (setting aside for a moment the many flaws in that strategy) is that it paints her as more electable against McCain in the fall. Puerto Rico sends no electors to the EC, and thus is a complete non-factor in the general election. In the unlikely event that Puerto Rico puts her over the top in the popular vote, does anyone really think that any of Obama's delegates will defect, or that it will be *the* deciding factor for the few remaining fence-sitters?

[Danger Mouse]

73. The Supers, Pelosi, and Dean all realize that if it goes to the convention, we all lose...

the supers will end it before it gets that far.
or else we're fucked.

[Dems to Win]

79. I agree 100%. I just posted this at mybarackobama.com

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/blog/sharonsharealike

Please, Obama campaign, don't believe the media hype. It is not over. The Obama campaign has been smart and thorough and consistent for months on end -- that cannot stop now.

Senator Obama must continue to campaign vigorously to win the Popular Vote! Senator Clinton certainly is. She thinks it could win her the nomination. She might be right. If Clinton wins the popular vote, there will certainly be a fight at the convention.

My congresswoman, Lynn Woolsey, has endorsed Senator Clinton but says she will cast her vote at the convention for the winner of the popular vote, excluding Michigan.

It is very, very important that Obama continue to "Win Big, Lose Small" in the six remaining contests. Including Puerto Rico, which has 2 million voters and holds its primary on June 1.

Obama has not yet opened an office in Puerto Rico. This could be a grievous error, resulting in a fight on the convention floor, if Clinton wins by a 400,000+ vote margin and thus wins the total popular vote.

Keep your eye on the Prize! There are 6 more contests for the Democratic nomination. All are important. Only after Obama has won the popular vote is the nomination securely Senator Obama's.

If you agree with this viewpoint, please add this concern to your own posts. We need to create such a racket that the campaign pays attention, and fully contests the remaining primaries.

[malik flavors]

90. Yea, they're talking about going to general elections states instead already.

Obama's going to Florida after Oregon.

I didn't know they didn't have an office in Puerto Rico.

This could be a mistake on their part. I hope they know what they're doing.

[AtomicKitten]

83. The SDs will stop her in her tracks very, very soon by putting Obama over the top.

The blustery threats and nonstop goalpost moving by her campaign are entertaining though.

[book_worm]

84. And Obama will take Oregon, Montana and South Dakota by wide margins

Going to the convention? and you're happy about that? No time to prepare for the fall campaign against McCain or deliberate on a VP. Yeah, Hillary is a big help. And get another thing straight it's not only Obama supporters who are devisive.

[ShadowLiberal]

89. You forgot one factor, news media + late night comedy

You forgot one big factor, now the media and late night comedy hosts treat Hillary Clinton.

Late night comedy hosts like Jay Leno have regularly been turning Hillary Clinton into a joke now, making jokes about how she's refusing to accept that she lost.

Hillary can't just go into the convention after getting media stories like that about her for months, it would absolutely murder her argument that she's the best general election candidate, her numbers would drop like a ton of bricks over the few months gap.

Plus, if Hillary somehow wins the nomination now all of Obama's supporters are going to be really pissed off, and feel like their votes didn't matter, especially after the recent media stories that'll likely keep on coming. It's just not going happen that the super delegates will give it to Hillary, they want to do what's best for the party's future, and pissing off all of Obama's youth vote by snatching the nomination away from him like this would be almost declaring the democratic party the minority party for a generation or two. You don't piss off the one age group of voters that supported you over the GOP in 04, especially considering the fact that a lot of them are first time voters, and first time voters often vote the same way the rest of their lives that they vote in the first few elections they vote in.

The real problems for us right now are these.

1) Obama and the super delegates need to be very careful to end this fight in a way that won't piss off Hillary supporters and make them feel like the system was unfair. For example, lets say Obama needs just 10 more delegates to lock up the nomination, then one state votes and gives Hillary 70% of their vote (unrealistic yeah, but basically she gets a landslide win) and then Obama says "we now have 2025 delegates despite our loss of this state today, it's over". Seems like a pretty strange way for the contest to end doesn't it.

2) The longer Hillary stays in this contest, the longer the party is divided, and the more damage Hillary inflicts on Obama's chances at the White House.

[gkhouston]

109. agreed about the late night comedy factor. Hillary won't benefit from being a joke

for the next three months. Neither will her claim to the nomination.

[earth mom]

91. I don't think Hillary would stay in if she didn't think she could pull off a win.

I think she's staying in because she really believes beyond a doubt that she is the best candidate.

I'm not for either candidate, but I will say I respect Hillary more now than I did a few months ago for her tenacity and toughness-I have no doubt she will kick some, though not all, rethug a$$ if elected.

Meanwhile, I respect Obama WAY less as time has gone on. Because of Rezko, Wright, Ayres and rethuglican/corporate a$$ kissing but also for what I just saw on PBS tonight: that Obama didn't even hold his hand over his heart for the National Anthem. WTF?! Where in the fucking hell is Obama's patriotism?! My husband served 11 years in the Navy and he is so disgusted he's talking about voting for McCain if Obama is the nominee. :grr:

And for the record, we are both full on Edwards and Gore supporters and don't get cable t.v. so we're not listening to some corporate media a$$hole telling us what to think or feel about Obama.

Oh and one more thing, don't think that the corporate media won't grill Obama big time for his lack of patriotism if he's the nominee, because they will to the point that what they did to Kerry will look like a cake walk.

[malik flavors]

103. Since when do people put their hand over their heart during the National Anthem?

It's the pledge of allegience that you put your hand over your heart for.

George H.W. Bush didn't put his hand over his heart during the National Anthem either, but nobody acussed him of being unpatriotic. I think it's unfair to make that claim about Obama. If you read his books his patriotism is evident.

Also, why would you take offense at Obama over Rezko, Ayres, "rethuglican," or corporate ass kissing, but not fault Clinton for Shu, their pardoning of Weather Underground members, her "rethuglican" tactics she's used throughout the primiaries, and the fact that she's taken more money from corporate America than and candidate republican or democrat?

If you just prefer Hillary that's totally fine, but I don't feel it's right to be forgiving of Hillary for her faults and to be so unforgiving of Obama for the same exact sins.

[earth mom]

105. Like I said before, I don't support either candidate-because they are both DINOs.

Everyone knows the * family hates the United States. I'm not surprised that family doesn't show any respect to the flag, etc. Hell, they are working overtime to destroy the United States! We may all soon be looking at a completely shredded Constitution with the United States as just a memory and in it's place have the North American Union with King Georgie boy at the helm.

FYI-in the video I'm talking about, everyone BUT Obama had their hands over their hearts! You can bet your sweet bippy the corporate media will play that clip over and over if Obama is the nominee.

What pisses me off the nth degree with you Obama supporters is that Obama can never do any wrong! Oh Hell No! Rezko? No worries. Wright? No big deal. Ayres? Who cares? Patriotic? Who gives a shit? Sorry, but this SHIT about Obama is extremely bothersome to me and many others and I'm not about to sit there and ignore it! It is disturbing and at this point I don't trust Obama at all because he LIES about it all and then his supporters support those LIES by being in DENIAL about it!

Sorry, but this is the EXACT same way the rethuglicans and freepers have behaved about * ever since he stole the 2000 election and look where that got us all!

NO THANKS, I'M NOT DRINKING THE KOOL AID! :grr:

[malik flavors]

106. Haha, I never said Obama wasn't flawed, or that I didn't have problems with him...

I said if you're going to lash out at Obama because of his flaws it's only fair that you lash out at EVERYONE that has those flaws.

You named the things that bother you about Obama, but you didn't seem to have the same problem with Clinton though she has her own Rezko, weather underground, an "rethuglican" problems. All i'm saying is if you're going to spread the hate, it should be spread out evenly.

There is no perfect candidate and I certainly don't find perfection in Obama, but thanks for making assumptions about me, writing in all caps, and posting fire breathing emoticons. For whatever reason I can see that you've taken this personally.

I'm well aware what the republicans will do in the fall, but so what? What can I do about that? They'll make a caricature out of any democrat, and that certainly includes Hillary. They've had adds ready to go for years, just praying she would run for president, so it's a bit silly to think she'd have it any easier than Obama. Atleast we already know about Wright, Ayers, and Rezko, we don't know what could crall out of Hillary's closet because nobody's been going after her or even attempting to vet her. It's Obama that's been getting vetted, so that's actually a positive for him.

I admit that video will be turned into a commercial, but I don't hold it against him that he didn't put his hand over his heart. I mean, who goes to a ball game and puts their hand over their heart during the national anthem? Some do, and some don't. It's not the pledge of alliegence.

Anyways, you're correct the fall will be a struggle (with either candidate), and you're correct that Obama is flawed, but you're wrong in assuming people are drinking "Kool-aid" just because they disagree with you. Perhaps you're drinking your own "Kool-aid," in thinking that you know so much about other people, and that you're so much smarter than everyone else.

Good Day

[earth mom]

110. I've blasted Hillary too. I don't like either candidate-they are DINOs picked by the GOP.

Yes, the corporate media and the rethuglicans who own the media picked the candidates. It's obvious when you look at how they totally ignored someone as popular and well liked as John Edwards!

So you don't think Obama's perfect? Well, why not say that, instead of all this rah rah stuff? It would have been breath of fresh air to see some honesty about Obama from DUers these past few months, instead of this Obama walks on water crap we've all been seeing.

It also would have been nice for Obama to admit to his mistakes, but he only does it as a last resort and solely for political purposes, not because he thinks honesty is the best policy. Look how he threw his so called mentor and friend Wright under the bus just to make it all go away! That was awful!

I don't think I'm smarter or better than anyone else. I just think people around here are heading down the same old road; thinking that a closet rethuglican like Obama is gonna change things when it's obvious he won't. Look no further than Nancy Pelosi or John Conyers to see how quickly politicians will turn on a dime to serve themselves and not follow the will of the people they were elected to represent.

A little dose of common sense and reality would go a long way around DU. That's what I'm saying.

[Leopolds Ghost]

93. How the hell do you "push for MI to be seated so that she nets around (X%) of popular votes cast"??

I thought the delegate selection rules and penalties applied to delegates,
not which popular vote totals "count" or "don't count" towards the totally
UNSCIENTIFIC and UNMEASURED popular vote differential.

Does she get "takesies-backsies" out of Michigan too? Does Obama get
cooties or become "it" if the delegates are seated in such a way that
x% of the voters who voted in Michigan count? Or will each voter in
Michigan be counted as 3/5 of a man or something, thus yielding fewer
delegates while simultaneously ensuring a popular vote majority using
fractional persons? This reminds me of a Calvin and Hobbes episode.

Hey, Hobbes is just like Obama -- he's even taller than Calvin!

[undeterred]

99. People who understand that its practically impossible

for Clinton to win won't turn out in large numbers.

[Warren Stupidity]

100. Start from the end point: Clinton wins nomination.

Now rewrite the rules such that whatever situation Clinton happens to be in: that is what is required to win.

No problem with that?

[Samantha]

101. She cannot make a legitimate case for winning the popular vote

There is no "popular vote" available for some of the caucus states. Nada. Nothing. Not even an estimate.

The only measure of who wins is the pledged delegate count. Add to that number, votes of superdelegate votes. Who ever has the larger number, or hits the target number needed, wins. That's it in a nutshell. Come back when she surpasses Obama in that regard.

[dcindian]

102. Why vote at all if all you are going to do is take some arcane

partial measurement to install your messiah as queen mother?

[dansolo]

107. A lot of supers are waiting for Obama to get the majority of pledged delegates

Once he gets that, after Oregon, there will be a flood of superdelegates who have publicly stated that they will go with the pledged delegate leader (including some who have endorsed Clinton, like John Murtha). Clinton only hope is to appeal to the superdelegates, but it they start endorsing Obama in droves, what would be the point of carrying on any further? The superdelegates are NOT buying the popular vote argument.