About that Working Class White Vote - An Unpleasant Truth

[Catherina]

According to CNN's 1996 exit poll, Bill Clinton lost the white vote (Dole 46%, Clinton 43%, Perot 9%). He lost the white male vote by an even larger margin (Dole 49%, Clinton 38%, Perot 11%). And he lost gun owners badly (Dole 51%, Clinton 38%, Perot 10%). However, Clinton won the popular vote overall 49%-41%-8%, and he won 70% of the electoral votes.

In 2000 -- when Al Gore won the popular vote by half a million votes -- he lost white males to Bush by a whopping 60%-36%, according to CNN's exit poll. He lost men overall 53%-42%. He lost whites overall 54%-42%. He lost gun owners 61%-36%. He lost small-town voters 59%-38% and rural voters 59%-37%. He lost the Midwest overall 49%-48%.

I'm not saying these are goals to aspire to. I'm saying it's a myth that Democrats had Joe Sixpack in their back pockets until that snooty arugula-eater Barack Obama came along, and it's a myth that they suffer crushing defeats when bowlers and boilermaker-drinkers aren't on board.

*****

And while we're talking about voting blocs: Since it's now an article of faith that Barack Obama will lose every voting bloc to Republican John McCain that he lost to fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton by essentially the same margin, shouldn't we extend that rule to Clinton as well? Following that logic, shouldn't we assume that she'll get less than 10% of the black vote against John McCain, just as she does against Obama?

http://nomoremister.blogspot.com/2008/05/white-people-all-important-just.html

Just sayin'

[anonymous171]

1. K&R

We just need to maintain that 30% baseline.

[anonymous171]

2. kick. nt

[anonymous171]

8. kick. nt

[K Gardner]

3. "CLINTON LOST THE WHITE VOTE". "GORE LOST WHITE MALES"

Sorry, it bears repeating for the hard of hearing :-)

[napi21]

4. The Dems lost the Joe Sixpack vote with the demise of unions.

Unions not only provided money, but LOTS of on the ground organization and canvasing for the dandidate.

[EFerrari]

6. That's right, I think. Reagan Democrats were f#cked over by Reagan. n/t

[K Gardner]

10. I wish I knew where Maddow got her stats she used yesterday on her show.. I believe

she said NO Democrat (in a long long time) has won the majority of the white working class vote.

[EFerrari]

12. It would be good to track that down. Does she have an email address? n/t

[K Gardner]

35. I'll see if I can get somebody in her show to answer an email :-)

[gkhouston]

16. LOL, I originally read "unicorns" not "unions"

and was wondering why Joe Sixpack had a thing for animals. Must. Clean. Glasses. ;-)

[pnorman]

31. "The Dems lost the Joe Sixpack vote with the demise of unions"

That is a significant observation. Before Reagan, union strength was about 1/3 of the work force. That was low by European standards, but still high enough to constitute a yardstick. Non-union wages & conditions were kept high to be "competitive" with union contracts. But at its present strength it works the other way, and union contracts are sucked DOWN by non-union standards.

So with unions no longer perceived as "being in his corner", the American worker feels not only abandoned and disillusioned, but ANGRY ("I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it any more!"). He becomes a ready target of those who want him vote against his own better interests, with "God, Guns, and Gays" providing the mind-fuck triggers.

I'm a fairly recent convert to Obama, having evolved as so many here -- via Kucinich and later Edwards. But I now feel GOOD about him, and believe that that the movement he's inspiring will also lead to (among other things) a resurgence of the American labor movement. GO Obama, GO!

pnorman

[EFerrari]

5. Shhh!

lol

:kick:

[redstate_democrat]

7. Good Post!

Kicked!

[tularetom]

9. The 'necks won't vote Dem in the general election

They dislike Hillary as much as or more than Obama. They've been poisoned against all things clinton for twenty years by their puppet masters on the radio.

They've been conditioned by racist appeals to vote for the people who have fucked them over as bad as the blacks.

The blacks have figured out the scam and refused to go along.

WTF is wrong with us whites?

[Catherina]

15. Nothing! If Whites hadn't figured out this scam too Barack wouldn't be where he is

We've come a long way baby :hug:

[FrenchieCat]

11. Very true.....

Democratic candidates received the following percentage of the white male vote:

1980 Presidential Election:
Carter: 38%

1984 Presidential Election:
Mondale: 32%

1988 Presidential Election:
Dukakis: 36%

1992 Presidential Election:
Clinton: 37%

1996 Presidential Election:
Clinton: 38%

2000 Presidential Election:
Gore: 35.2%

2004 Presidential Election:
Kerry: 38%
------------------------------------------

The DLC: The White Male Problem (2001) http://www.ndol.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=127&subid=171&contentid=3564

Here's a more recent article: Clinton, Obama Make Push for the Neglected White Male Voter
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/03/03/clinton-obama-make-push-for-the-neglected-white-male-voter.html

One more: Salon: So Long, White Boy
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/09/17/white_man/

[Catherina]

19. That's some interesting stuff, the DLC article is an eye-opener

Nearly every major development of the past generation worked to push white men away from the Democratic Party. For some, the civil rights revolution was the trigger; for others, it was the rise of feminism and its institutionalization in the party's official structure that drove them away. The rhetoric employed by high-profile extremists in these movements, who denounced white men as racist and patriarchal oppressors, exacerbated these effects. Conflict within the Democratic Party sparked by the events of 1968 led to rules changes that diminished the power of labor unions, for decades centers of white male political influence and social standing.

Developments in foreign and defense policy also played a role. The Democratic Party became the epicenter of opposition to the Vietnam War, a stance that spilled over into a broader critique of the Cold War, the defense budget, the foreign policy establishment, our assertive internationalism, and of the United States itself. These developments offended many white men who were traditional patriots and favored a strong national defense.

Gun control, which many white men saw as the translation of defense dovishness into domestic policy, made matters worse and helped cement the Democrats' image as the party of weakness.

...

How can Democrats cut their losses? In many respects, white men are looking for the same reassurance that the Democratic ticket failed to provide voters in the 1970s and 1980s, but successfully conveyed in the 1990s -- that Democrats share their values, look out for their economic interests, and will stand up for America's role in the world. In 1996, that message helped Bill Clinton to carry white voters in the East and Midwest and to nearly do so in the West.

...

It is clear from the evidence that white men have a distinctive cultural outlook. Even more than most Americans, they prize independence, individual choice, and personal integrity and strength. Men gravitate toward candidates they see as having the courage to stand up against the odds, even against the majority (witness the strong white male support for Ross Perot in 1992 and John McCain in 2000). White men care less about verbal facility and eloquence than they do about the reliability of words spoken. Gore's poor showing among Perot's former followers and McCain's disappointed supporters substantially weakened his candidacy. And by defying conventional wisdom about the irrelevance of defense issues in the post-Cold War era, Bush parlayed his advocacy of a rebuilt military into a perception of firmness and strength that fortified his standing among white men.

...

http://www.ndol.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=127&subid=171&contentid=3564

[Exultant Democracy]

28. They lie their asses off by Pretending that Clinton wa better in the 90's with while male voters

38% isn't much better then 36% and the DLC is full of shit.

[TragedyandHope]

33. The flip side

Thanks for those stats. Here are some I looked up the other day.


Kennedy, 1960: 68% of the black vote

Carter, 1976: 85% of the black vote

Clinton, 1992: 82% of the black vote

Clinton, 1996: 84% of the black vote

Gore, 2000: 86% of the black vote (some sources say as high as 90%)

Kerry, 2004: 88% of the black vote

[VolcanoJen]

13. Oh noes!!!!!

I dun just lost mah talking pointes!!

:hi:

[stray cat]

14. Democrats have trouble with this group routinely; why else do repubs paint dems as liberal elitists

[slinkerwink]

17. exactly.

[RainDog]

18. Just sayin'

:rofl:

If someone chooses to vote against his self-interest because he wants to have a beer with the prez... we'll just have to bring them along with us anyway with voters who don't have so many anxieties about their "manliness" or "womanliness."

that's how I see it.

gotv.

[Hansel]

20. Good post!

Hillary knows this too, which makes her argument all the worse. On top of playing the race card, she is using a premise that she knows is bogus just so she can do so.

Good job on pointing out that her argument can be turned on her with much more effective results. If her argument holds any water, she is completely unelectable. Because she cannot win in November if 90% of black voters and the "elitists" do not vote for her. And that is a much more risky scenario for the SDs to ponder.

[featherman]

21. Aways a good thing to remember that in the Dem's Blue State base these

numbers are a great deal tighter. National numbers can be deceptive since they are inflated by a vast discrepancy in the hard-core GOP base states.

Remove the solid GOP "Old Confederacy" and the Plains/Northern Rockies bloc out of the equation and the white male vote for DEMS improves considerably in the DEM base states (New England, Mid Atlantic, Upper Midwest, Pacific Coast)

I expect all the Kerry states to be solid this year and we should add in IA, NM, CO, and NV without too much trouble. The GOP is in chaos in Ohio and the entire state government is DEM for the first time in a long while. I expect to win Ohio. That settles the election by a comfortable margin but there are more states to be picked off: I like the DEM ticket to make a serious run at: MO, ND, 1/2 of NE, VA, NC, FL, GA (don't be surprised).

McCain is a very weak candidate from a party whose registration base has shrunk to 27% nationally. The GOP is in a world of hurt this year. All of this will be much clearer as we start seeing the Sept-Oct polling after the conventions.

[OHdem10]

22. jNo Democrat can win without 40+ % of the WWC vote.

Bill Clinton got 46% which put him over the top.

No one else has attained the 40% and no one else has been President.

[anonymous171]

23. Al Gore won.

[anonymous171]

25. Oh and it was a 3 way split.

[atufal1c]

24. What?! Why wasn't I informed?!

I can't believe I didn't know this.

Why didn't I know this?

If true, it's over.

Unless someone really believes that 30+ percent of white males are racists, Obama should be able to at least equal the previous numbers.

This is awesome.

[bigbrother05]

26. Sounds like you're arguing that Obama wins the Dem base

Think that's right. Why would the so-called Reagan Dems come back to HRC with a chance to vote for a Vietnam hero? AWOL W got close enough to Nam vets Gore & Kerry to steal it, so how is Hillary with "war protester" Bill stack up to McCain?

Think I'd rather take my chances with a real agent for change. Maybe I give the US voter too much credit, so call me a liberal.

[izquierdista]

27. The reason white males vote Republican

is because they want to be rich white males who vote Republican. They may not have finished their education, they may drive a shitwagon and have a mostly manual labor job, but dammit, just because they don't have any money doesn't mean they can't vote like somebody who has money!

When people are asked how they fit in the economic pyramid, what percentile they are on the salary or wealth curve, they invariably err on the plus side. They think they are richer than they in actuality are, and they vote accordingly (i.e., as if they WERE in the 90th income percentile, rather than the 40th).

Until they get slapped and realize exactly how they are getting screwed, they will never vote in their own interests. They respond more to fear that someone else might pull up even with them, that those people need to be held down so that they can get theirs, that they don't realize that for every dollar they get, 10 dollars goes to the level above them.

I think that Michael Moore was onto something with 'Sicko!' In that movie, he concentrates not on the uninsured, but those who thought they were insured until they got screwed. Once they finally realize that the system is rigged, that it cares nothing for them, that is when they can be receptive to arguments that they should vote in their own self-interest.

[aaaaaa5a]

29. "What's The Matter With Kansas"

is a great book!

Of course reading it makes me an "out of touch" elitist!

Anyway, it chronicles this ongoing voting problem very well. It is a Democratic issue. It is not an Obama issue. Or even a race issue. Democratic white males struggle with this voting block too.

And anyone who thinks Hillary Clinton would carry West Virginia or the "T" in Pennsylvania vs John McCain is delusional.

[Mooney]

30. I agree with this 100%.

Whenever I hear people talking about how blue-collar whites are the Democratic base, it automatically signals to me that whoever is advancing that argument is completely full of shit. Those people have been voting Republican for years.

[TragedyandHope]

32. You Democrats and your pesky facts!

[Bensthename]

34. Hillary has me thinking the white vote is the only one that matters. Is it not?

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ClassWarrior]

37. What electoral college? Bush** was coronated by his Daddy's Extreme Court...

...when it became inconvenient to properly count Florida.

NGU.

[anonymous171]

38. kick. nt

[Joe Chi Minh]

39. I'd believe any poll touted by CNN. Ab-so-looot-ly! I can just hear

Bill "Father Christmas" Schneider's wheedling tones now: "Here's the thing though, contrary to what people think....blah, blah"

[NashVegas]

40. Gosh ... If Obama's the Nominee, He's Pretty Fucked Without the Female Vote

Isn't it just a shame the campaign spent so much time and energy pissing off the 55% or so who didn't swallow the line about how only bad women vote for HC?

Have fun with that.

[union_maid]

41. Sorry about that

He'll get the female vote, to at least the extent that his Democratic predecessors have. And he'll bring out younger voters and African American voters in far greater numbers, thereby solidifying a Democratic majority for years to come. It's not just about what percentage of what demographic. It's also about who feels motivated to vote.

[meow mix]

42. omg your going to scare the sheeps

shhhhhhhhhhhhh