When did you first realize Barack Obama would win the nomination?

[BluegrassDem]

Well I say when he won Iowa, I knew something was in there air, but never could feel comfortable counting out Billary.

After Super Tuesday, I began to breathe a little better, but yet, there was still those big states left.

I say the big Wisconsin win sealed the deal for me. I knew this guy would be unstoppable. That huge Wisconsin win was a turning point in my mind. I knew when he trounced her there that and ran the tables in February, that he'd end up the nominee. I knew that the Democratic Party would not take it away from him, even if Hillary won Ohio and Penn., in which she did.

[AZBlue]

1. January, when I saw him here in Phoenix.

I knew he was the real thing and have known 100% ever since.

[Xipe Totec]

2. June 2008, or thereabouts

maybe....

:evilgrin:

[Labors of Hercules]

67. Nah, it's over. NC completely sealed the deal.

Yes we did. :party:

[Xipe Totec]

76. Maybe...

:evilgrin:

[dubeskin]

3. I'd say March 4

With Ohio/Rhode Island/Texas/Vermont. During the long 3 weeks between Super Tuesday and then we rally learned about Hillary and Barack's characters, and what they were running for. We had the "Yes We Can"ers and the "Yes She Can"ers. Then after Pennsylvania it completely sealed the deal. That was the final nail in the coffin.

[rocktivity]

63. Between Super Tuesday and March 3, Hillary lost.

On March 4, Hillary failed.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Beregond2]

4. I knew

as soon as Edwards dropped out. He was the only other candidate who ever had a chance. There was no way the Democrats were ever going to give the nomination to a completely unelectable candidate like Hillary. It has been mind-blowing to me how otherwise sensible people could have imagined such a thing.

[gristy]

5. When Tim Russert told me last Tuesday!

:D

[TragedyandHope]

6. Sometime in late February

I was completely convinced that Obama would be our next President. It was probably just after Wisconsin and during the run up to Texas and Ohio.

[EFerrari]

7. I don't know. It was sometime after Super Tuesday

when I was watching him on CSPAN and he was smiling and laughing and taking visible pleasure in talking to people. You can't hire that or buy it or fake that.

[Diane R]

8. Feb 9th...my Eastern Wa. caucus. 72 people, 75% Obama. Then, I knew something was going on.

[saltpoint]

9. I felt John Edwards would be the nominee, especially after the Obama -

Edwards - Clinton finish in Iowa, but actually realized Obama was a force to be reckoned with owing to the undeniable appeal he had with people sending in 5 bucks, 15 bucks, and 25 bucks. Obama is an organizer and grassroots progressives speak that language.

When Vilsack and Bayh stepped aside, I sensed more than just an arithmetic narrowing of the nomination process.

When Biden and Richardson bowed out, and Bill Clinton's careless mouth converted what might have been a moderately impressive Obama win in South Carolina to a total rout, it was clear the Afro American base which was such a big part of Hillary's 12-month-long commanding lead in the national polling from Jan. 2007 through Christmas Eve, 2007, was gone, and with it, any mathetmatical chance she had of defeating any superior grassroots effort. Iowa demonstrated that Obama and Edwards both had organizations like that.

When the numbers weren't there for Edwards, and Super Tuesday's impressive showing by Obama rolled across the screens and monitors and airwaves of the country, I thought it was still no better for Obama than 50-50, until 1 week prior to the Wisconsin Primary.

In that very chilly post-Feb. 5th primary landscape, Barack Obama, a week or so prior to the vote, packed to capacity Madison's Kohl Arena with not fewer than 16,000 people and possibly as many as 20,000, counting the overflow and turn-aways. Five days later the Clinton campaign booked another Madison venue with a capacity of c. 4,500 and it didn't fill.

I didn't need any polling after that to know who was going to win the Wisconsin Primary, and could tell also that Hillary Clinton had not bothered to put into place any mechanism to contest any state post-Feb. 5th because she believed, as did her handlers, that she would not need to.

Senator Obama begged to differ.

[NeedleCast]

10. I Felt Pretty Good after TX/OH

After Obama's 11-state win streak I figured things were looking good but Hillary could have turned it around by winning decisively in Texas and Ohio. Instead, what was once close to a 30 point lead in Texas turned into a draw where Hillary edge Obama in the popular vote but Obama won more delegates. Hillary's win in Ohio wasn't big enough to counter what happened in Texas. After that, I figured there was no way for her to catch up in pledged delegates, although there was some fear that this would go to convention and the DNC would award Hillary the nomination.

[rocktivity]

33. Did you plagiarize me

or did I plagiarize you?

:rofl:
rocknation

[crankychatter]

11. I'm just registering voters and pretending it will be... I still don't "know" n/t

.

[rwheeler31]

12. When J.E. left.

[jgraz]

88. Yep. That was disappointing, but it meant Hillary would eventually lose

Edwards' departure signaled the coalescing of the ABH forces. I was hoping we'd see Obama go first, but he's dramatically improved as a candidate since those early primaries.

[galledgoblin]

13. I had a toast as I watched the Iowa results come in... but

I have been and still will be nervous and cynical until the official decision is made.

[SoCalDem]

14. Wisonsin made me hopeful..But when she said "white people"..I knew it was over for her

That was the culmination of months of sly, slightly- explainable "slurs"..but this one was so over the top.. Obama never personally attacked her, and yet she's done nothing BUT..so it serves her right

[Colobo]

15. By the end of February.

[FrenchieCat]

16. In September of 2007, when I went to go see him in San Francisco

with my daughter.

He spoke. I shook his hand. Got my book Autographed. saw my daughter's face, and how many young people were at the rally and how politically enthused they were.

It became clear to me that this man, who is really much more impressive in person, and appears more "real" than any politician that I have ever encountered , could be our voice.

Still, like a good citizen not about to be taking in by charisma, I did my research. Actually read both books, and navigated through the website. And so, I didn't declare support until December ......

When I watched his interview to that Reno Newspaper (the one in where he talked about Reagan, where everyone got so excited, many didn't hear the whole interview) in where he tells exactly how he was going to get it done, then, I knew for sure.

Here's that interview video, if anyone is now interested. http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080115/VIDEO/80115026&oaso=news.rgj.com/breakingnews

[Milo_Bloom]

17. About 1 week before Iowa

The polls were looking like an upset in Iowa and since all Clinton had going for her was the "inevitability" meme, once she lost any contest she was originally expected to win, she was done for good.

The only thing I didn't really expect was Clinton to hang in so long beyond the point where she couldn't win anymore... That day was Wisconsin.

[TexasObserver]

18. When he reeled off a dozen wins in a row.

That's when I knew everything that had come before was not happenstance or good luck, but real skill at putting together, funding, and running a quality organization.

His campaign has been a picture of steadiness and effectiveness. Hers has been a picture of chaos, poor leadership, and ineffective, overpaid buffoons.

[HuffleClaw]

19. when the MSM reported on the OBAMA SNEEZE

it was then glaringly obvious he would be continue to be propped up until it was time to tear him down

[EFerrari]

21. I missed The Sneeze?! Damn.

:rofl:

[canadian_is_cold]

20. July 2004 n/t

[progdog]

65. Exactly!

n/t

[TBF]

71. Many of us knew we were looking at our best chance to recapture the white house when we saw that

speech at the convention - too bad Hillary didn't realize it.

[Hansel]

72. Same here.

[PM7nj]

22. Iowa. nt

[davidpdx]

23. I'd say that about the time he won Wisconsin

It became apparent he was on his was to winning.

[Forkboy]

24. When all the Wright stuff came along and he ended up going up in the polls the week after.

[rocktivity]

25. The "second" Super Tuesday (March 4)

during which she had to hit her first "magic number" of 60% of the vote in all five of the contests to catch up pledged delegate-wise. I bought into the hype that "big wins" in OH and TX would offset the 3-17 record that Hillary started on the first Super Tuesday. When I finally went to bed that night, she seemed to be on the way to succeeding. But when I checked the numbers on CNN.com the next morning, the closest she came to 60% was in Rhode Island, and her winning the Texas primary by only four points was like icing on the cake!

:headbang:
rocknation

[mikelgb]

26. I haven't realized it yet

until she who must not be named concedes I don't think I'll realize it

[texanwitch]

27. At the last Democratic National Convention in 2004, I knew he would be the next President.

I liked him back then.

He will make a great President.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

29. Funny thing about that convention appearance...

Here's a DU post I did back on January 17, 2007:

"I wanted to share something that happened to me when I was watching the Democratic Convention that featured Barrack Obama as a speaker.

First, I should say that I regularly have these "flashes" of future information -- just a little internal voice that will give me a declarative statement that will later turn out to be true. I think the weirdest one I ever got was during a pre-release screening of "Ghost". When Whoopi Goldberg first came on screen, my little voice said, "She is going to win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar for this." Even as I listened to the little voice, I thought to myself, "That is fucking crazy!"

Well, it turned out it wasn't that crazy after all.

Another time, I was coming home after a very long day of work and parked my car on the side of my house instead of putting it in the driveway like I normally do. The little voice told me I needed to move the car to the driveway, but I was too tired to move the garbage cans from the drive. So I left it there. The next morning I wake to find my car had been stolen and that it was totaled in a hit and run accident.

I have learned the hard way to pay attention to the little voice.

So, fastforward -- I am watching the convention. Obama is introduced and starts to walk out onto the stage. I have never heard of him, have no idea who he is or what he stands for. Before he even speaks, that little voice says to me, "This man is going to be the first black President of the United States." Clear as a bell.

With Obama's announcement he has formed an exploratory committee, I am thinking back to that flash. A lot.

Was his Presidency supposed to be 2008 or some future date? I have no idea, there was no indication of that in my flash.

But I will be watching the next two (four? eight?) years with extra interest."


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=245&topic_id=34863#34917

[JanusAscending]

34. Same here.......

I felt the same way. I KNEW it in my bones!...and felt it in my soul.:applause:

[texanwitch]

35. I taped that convention and so I have his speech on DVD.

Need to look for it and listen again.

I worked early voting and and I saw first hand how excited voters were to vote for him.

So many young people and people who had never voted before came out to vote for him.

I am looking forward to working early voting and on election day in October and November.

[my3boyz]

49. I had the very same feeling. At that moment I knew he would be president. nt

[TheDonkey]

90. I thought the same thing.

I knew Obama would be President someday after that speech.

[mntleo2]

28. When he spoke at the convenstion

...I turned to the people I watching it with and said, "there is the next president of the United States!" They all guffawed and told me that was impossible. I don't know I just knew
I did support Edwards until he dropped out, so I do not think it was wishful thinking on my part to have had that flash of future insight, but he was my 2nd choice and I still say my dream ticket was/is Obama/Edwards or Edwards/Obama ...

Cat In Seattle

[DerekJ]

30. When phrigndumass and grantcart told me so

:P

[Bethany Rockafella]

31. Once Edwards dropped out.

I thought there was no way, a women would get the nom. I would give them a vote but a lot of other folks won't.

[gblady]

32. Feb 08

My WA caucus had 94 participants, 85% Obama...
the passion with which folks spoke about him was convincing.

[cliffordu]

36. When I realized he was coming up on a million individual donors....

[bhikkhu]

37. Iowa caught my undivided attention, but Feb 5 was it!

I think every opportunity for politics to follow its customary course since then was defeated by pure popular support, and for once in an age (since Carter) I am looking forward to my winning candidate's inauguration, and the years to come.

[book_worm]

38. I felt it with the Iowa victory, but I guess I felt almost certain after Super Tuesday with Hill out

of money and having to loan her campaign $5 million.

[Arrowhead2k1]

39. I called it after Iowa.

I didn't know for 'sure' of course(He was still way behind in the polls at the time), but I saw the energy he was quickly gathering and had this STRONG feeling. I told all my relatives that this guy was going to be the next president right then and there. They thought I was crazy, but look who's laughing now! :)

[mckeown1128]

40. Yep Wisconsin.... that was Hillary's real last chance to end him... nt

[jordi_fanclub]

41. To be honest... precisely Wednesday morning July 28, 2004 when I saw the TV news from DNC in Boston.

[leftstreet]

42. When I saw him in Seattle in Feb. The way the crowd reacted

It was unreal.

[ClayZ]

46. Me too! I was there!

It was seriously unreal! Astonishing!:woohoo:

K and R

[CalGator]

43. A week after Super Tuesday

Once he swept the Potomac Primaries and it wasn't even close, then I knew Hillary would not be able to catch up to him.

[gravity]

44. After twelve straight victories

I never considered Hillary as a potential winner after that point. Obama campaign was clearly more organized, and was gaining support the more exposure he got. It was only a matter of time

[Raine]

45. Iowa made me BELIEVE that it was possible

but I didn't know he HAD the nomination till March.

[VotesForWomen]

47. about the same time i knew dems were gonna lose another GE.

[madrchsod]

48. really? well i guess we won`t be seeing your posts

as soon as it`s official that obama has won...i`m not sure where you`ll be posting next but i`m sure they will be happy to read your enlighten insights into why the republicans will win the presidency.

[Yukari Yakumo]

50. The 11 state winning streak

That showed who had the ground game to win.

[mmonk]

55. Yep. That's when it became apparent to me.

[Vinca]

51. The day he started his campaign. I wasn't supporting him at the time,

but it was apparent he was the person to bet on.

[BklynChick]

52. after Wisconsin

[bowens43]

53. July 21st 2004

this is when I knew that he would President of the United States. I didn't know that it would be this year (I had high hopes for Kerry) but I knew it would happen.

[dave29]

58. both my wife and I agreed, on that night

he would be President.

[Kahuna]

54. Last week. I began to suspect after the lastest Wright dust up..but

the fact that he survived that last Tuesday, and really did win IN if you discount the dittohead vote, I'm finally convinced. I've been waiting to exhale. Last Tuesday, I finally exhaled. :)

[Adelante]

56. Mid-Feb 2008 nt

[sniffa]

57. February 6, 2008

I had a whole thread about it on the 7th.

[roseBudd]

59. I cannot remember which contest but it was when I saw his victory speech immediately before McCains

and I knew we had a winner. The contrast to McCain was so stark and unflattering.

[stevenleser]

60. Halfway through the dozen wins in a row...

I realized it was over. He had been predicted to win the 12 in a row, and after six, I knew that this prediction was correct. There was no coming back from Super Tuesday + 12 in a row. Every reasonable person knew that too, and has known what the story was since then.

[kwyjibo]

61. When I saw him speak in Austin, Texas.

Looking at the incredibly huge crowd, listening to his inspiring message, I just had a feeling. I whispered to my friend, "He's going to win." And he is.

[Warren Stupidity]

62. When I saw the crowds of young white families - 20/30 somethings

in 98% white New Hampshire flocking to the Obama rallies - I realized that this bitter old boomer had missed this wave and that something different was up. Political rallies in my state tend to be populated by the 50+ crowd and college age campaign workers. Young families are way too busy for that sort of nonsense. What was going on with the Obama campaign was not in the play book.

He didn't win New Hampshire, but he would have won easily if all the Edwards supporters like me had to make a second choice.

[rocktivity]

64. Obama's 2-point loss in NH proved that his Iowa win had not been a fluke

and got everybody else in the country to say, "You know what? This 'audacity of hope' stuff really DOES work!'"

:headbang:
rocknation

[Obamamaniac_25]

73. Just after Super Tuesday when he started winning contests

by massive margins and especially after his huge win in Wisconsin. No person has been the democratic nominee in many years without winning Wisconsin first.

[rocktivity]

75. Welcome to DU, Obamamaniac_25!

Ready to kick some John McLameBrain ass?

:hi:
rocknation

[NEDem]

66. When Edwards dropped out.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

68. 2-19-08

Wisconsin.

[niyad]

69. when he reaches 2,025 delegates.

[ej510]

70. Wisconsin.

[Blarch]

74. about 2 years ago.

[NC_Nurse]

77. When we kicked ASS in NC!!!

:bounce: :bounce:

[saltpoint]

78. I'm wondering the time it occurred to the more recalcitrant members of

the mainstream media was after the amazing address on race he gave in Phildelphia.

That had to be a guided missiel right at the heart of their media treachery. They would not have had a response to it.

It was simply too far over their heads, hearts, and level of professionalism for them to touch.

It was a landmark address, which -- like Lincoln's Cooper Union speech -- may have made Barack Obama president.

[milkyway]

79. February 12, night of Potomac primaries, when Clinton flew straight to Texas instead of Wisconsin--

She had already taken nine losses in a row, and with Wisconsin--74 delegates in a state she could win--seven days away, she instead went to Texas, which was three weeks away. Unbelievably, she was still thinking only of the biggest states, figuring that if she took Texas, Ohio, and PA the media and the supers would have to anoint her the winner even if Obama won more pledged delegates.

I still don't think she has any idea why she lost, convinced the whole process has been terribly unfair to her.

[Stop Cornyn]

80. When Edwards dropped out.

[Erin Elizabeth]

81. Iowa really surprised me.

I liked him, but I was afraid to get my hopes up for him, if that makes sense. But once he won Iowa and it was considered such an upset for Hillary, I was like "Hmmm, maybe he can go all the way?"

Then I held my breath for the next several primaries. At that point, I felt he could really do it.

[goletian]

82. when he and hillary first were at each others throats in that one debate

and he was fighting back against flimsy arguments like he voted present and other such nonsense, i realized he was a guy who didnt need anything but the truth to pave his way. i was still open to all the candidates at that point, but i was particularly interested in obama because of the straight forward way he handled himself. not combative, but smart enough to know how to shut down the oppositions attacks quickly and effectively.

and since i knew he was openly against the war, i thought that was a huge plus -- before it was ever mentioned, i knew that would provide an unequivocal contrast to any repub candidate, since all the other front runners wouldve faced attacks like "well you voted for the war." and that was and is my biggest concern at the moment. he called it a dumb war before it started. that took guts many lacked at the time. i was also against the war before it began. i was dumbfounded at the free pass the bush admin was given (by the media, by everyone) to attack the wrong country. it made no sense to me at all, yet everyone else was united in their stupor. i thought i was surrounded by zombies.

[nadinbrzezinski]

83. In january I did the math

And I knew he had it, almost, mathematically

Last Tuesday I knew it was absolutely over

I knew it was over in January though but held my "powder" as it were

[locker13]

84. april 2007

when he outraised Hillary

[Frank Booth]

85. The Potomac Primary.

Those were extremely convincing wins, and Hillary should have had a pretty good shot in both Virginia and Maryland. The fact that Obama routed her in both sealed the deal.

[peoli]

86. The day he announced his candidacy

[leeno]

87. Feb 10, 2007 ... Springfield, IL

[TheDonkey]

89. In 2004.. well I thought he'd win but it was wrapped up in my mind after Potamic Tuesday and WI

and the month long victory-fest Obama went on.

[pettypace]

91. When John Kerry endorsed him

January 10th - the significance of the previous Dem nominee coming out so forcibly for BO cannot be overstated.

[VADem11]

92. Feb 11, 2007

I saw him announce his candidacy the day before and I saw my apathetic cousin who is a marine get excited for the first time ever. The next day, I checked out his website, started reading his book, and I just knew. Even when he was 30 points down in September, I had a gut feeling that he would win and the day that he won Virginia in a landslide confirmed my feelings.

[mikekohr]

93. July 2004, BEFORE He Was Elected To The US Senate

I met Senator Obama and his wife at the Depue, IL. (smalltown downstate) VFW. It was very clear to me that Obama is not an ordinary political leader, and I've met a few.

I saw in Barack Obama what I once saw In Robert F. Kennedy: the right person, in the right place, at the right time in history to make a REAL differance.

mike kohr