Are the Southern States In Play Now?

[aaroh]

Since Obama is winning 80-90% of the African American votes will all the southern red states (heavily populated african-americans) become swing states in the general election?

You have:
Louisiana (33.47% african american, 9 electrol votes up for grabs)
Missisipi (37.24%,6)
Alabama (26.7%,9)
Georgia (30.29%,15)
South Carolina (29.68%,8)
North Carolina (22.29%,15)
Virginia (20.65%,13)

Those 7 states represents a total of 75 electoral votes in the general election. 270 electrol votes are needed to win the GE so they represent 28% of the total electoral votes needed to win.

If Obama repeats his 80-90% gain of african-american votes he only needs on average 35-40% of the white votes to win these states, which is easily do-able.

[AllentownJake]

1. I think

SC, NC, and Virginia are the most in play. They have been trending more an more purple lately due to the large influx of transplants from the rest of the country.

Georgia will be tough as well with Louisana (Bobby Jindal has a 50/50 shot of being VP)

Alabama is not in play. Too old south.

[Yukari Yakumo]

2. GA may not be as difficult as you think...

Prior to Bush, I think it was a fairly blue state.

[tekisui]

44. If Bob Barr makes a good showing, GA and VA will be very much in play.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Al Gore Won 92% Of The African American Vote In 00 And Lost Every Southern State But Florida*

~

[AllentownJake]

6. What was the turnout?

Turnout is the key not percentages.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Here's The Math

Let's take Mississippi...

African American comprise 37% of the population...Let's say all African Americans over eighteen vote and ninety five percent vote for Obama... That's 35%...Now, sixty three percent of whites vote and he gets 18% of them (same as Kerr) That's 11%... 35% + 11% = 46%

Under the most wildly optimistic scenario - a one hundred percent African American turnout and ninety five percent of the vote Obama still doesn't win...

There's a reason that out of the twenty six Senate seats in the Old Confederacy only seven are held by Democrats...

[AllentownJake]

8. I never though MS

would be in play

however VA, SC, and NC are more moderate than their cousins.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Kerry Got 22% Of The White Vote In SC, 27% In NC And 32% In VA

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297188

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297180

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297194

If you look at the percentage of African American voters in those states it is close to their percentage of the entire population...


I suspect the 08 map will look very much like the 04 and 00 maps with a few changes that might determine the winner...

[AllentownJake]

10. VA looks promising

and its only been getting more and more democratic there since 2004.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. VA And FL Are In Play

The other states, unfortunately aren't...

Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Mondale and Carter* didn't lose the south because they didn't get enough African American votes; they didn't get enough white ones...


*1980 campaign

[AllentownJake]

13. NC will be in play in 2012 and 2016

That state is getting more and more Yankees everyday.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Plus It's A Really Beautiful State

~

[AllentownJake]

15. Lived there for 2 years

and if you want to talk about a place that got a big part of the Education Equation right...they invested very heavily in their colleges which has modernized the state.

[marions ghost]

18. lots of those Yankees

that NC is getting vote Republican, typically moderate R--but R nonetheless. The idea that Yankees are turning North Carolina Blue is an exaggeration. North Carolina's biggest influx of newcomers are from California, Mexico, and New York. So it's a mix, certainly good for change--but let's not call it a Yankee effect.

More to the point is that NC's Jesse Helms Rethuglicans are not tolerated as much anymore (which IS (partly) an effect of these new residents). But what must be recognized equally is that NC activists and state politicians have brought about some real changes in election procedures. NC elections have been notoriously corrupt. Helms' successes depended on it. Those who have worked for these critical changes are people who have been living in the state for the last few decades, NOT newcomers.

[supernova]

26. Thank you, marians ghost

:applause:

While it's fun to welcome all our new neighbors, there's no discounting the liberals who were born and bred here (me for one!) who are making this election season a reality.

:bounce:

[marions ghost]

42. you're welcome supernova

I will refute the simplistic idea that migrants from the Northeast are responsible for the changes in North Carolina where ever I see it. It's just not the truth.

That notion reflects the superior attitude that a lot of people from the 'blue" states have...they want to think that they're spreading their blues genes or something. I invite them to visit NC and talk to people in the political trenches and get out of their fond fantasies and regional superiorities.

Though 'born/bred' in VA I have spent much time in NC in the last two decades and have seen what's gone on first hand. Got enough relatives in the state (and in the graveyards of the state) to qualify as a VA/NC dual citizen. I know for a fact how hard the natives and longterm residents--the more liberal-minded--of both states have worked to effect significant changes in the entrenched conservative political structures.

Why do people assume that every native or longterm resident of a Southern state is backward? That in itself is an ignorant assumption. You wouldn't think that any smart person would want to own that. :shrug:

[Carrieyazel]

34. Yes, promising for 2012 and beyond. Not this year.

[Exilednight]

23. There's a flaw in your math. It also depends on what the White voter turnout is .......

I see McCain being a turnoff to many white republican southerners.

[BklynChick]

25. i'm sure the turnout will be much greater this time

[Kolesar]

4. IIRC, the AA GOTV effort has always been good, so Obama can only get incremental gains

I don't know if that is true everywhere. The Democratic party barely had an organization in some counties in the deep South.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I'm Lookling At 04 Exit Polls

Kerry got 18% of the white vote in Mississippi and 23% in Georgia...

Except for FL and VA the south really isn't in play...

[woolldog]

22. Wow.

Those are shocking stats.

[Zynx]

40. Wisconsin whites vote quite differently from Mississippi whites.

They are practically a different political genus, not just species.

[woolldog]

41. lol @ "wisconsin whites"

sounds like you're talking about a type of wine or cheese.

I mean I knew there were differences....big differences. But Kerry getting only 18% of the white vote in Mississippi is stunning.

[elizm]

11. You bet we are! And those who have wanted to write us off for years...

Can stand up and take notice that it was SC and NC who delivered the pivitol wins for Obama in this primary.

[Benhurst]

16. Dream on. Twenty years ago we enthusiastically nominated

Harvey Gantt, an African American, in the NC primary to run for the U.S. Senate. "Harvey Gannt?" you ask. Maybe you are familiar with Jesse Helms. He won.

Who are our senators now? Right-wing Republicans Dole and Burr. If you want an idea of our chances in the general election, Google their abysmal voting records. They make John McCain look like Bernie Sanders.

[elizm]

19. Myabe you should look at the latest poll on Dole and Hagen...Neck and neck..

Instead of passing it off as DREAMING, maybe you should get out and join the rest of the folks in NC fighting for a victory. I knocked on doors in NC for 3 days last week to get out the vote for Obama....and I am from SC! If you are calling us just dreamers, then perhaps you are just part of the problem.http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/rasmussen_gop_sen_dole_in_dead.php

[Benhurst]

46. I'm well aware of the polls as far as Dole is concerned and we do have have a chance

of getting rid of her.

As for my activism, I'll match my record against yours any day. Perhaps you should go back to South Carolina and tend to business there, since Obama has a slightly better chance there than up here.

But thanks for your magnificently condescending comments. With such an attitude, I'm sure you'll do us loads of good in the Palmetto State.

[Maddy McCall]

20. Hahahaha!

Neither of those states will go Blue in the general.

Nor will any of the deep, deep south states.

[Mudoria]

27. True.. NC will vote Republican like it has for many years

North Carolinians vote Dem locally and Repub nationally. Not going to change anytime soon either I think.

[NC_Nurse]

30. More and more folks are moving here from elsewhere...I wouldn't

give up yet...;-)

[Maddy McCall]

31. Same with Mississippi.

[BlooInBloo]

32. Those states wrote themselves off.

[last_texas_dem]

17. Probably not

The problem is that the states with large black populations that it seem logical would be in play based upon that factor tend to have white populations that vote almost as heavily Repug as the black populations vote Democratic. So, despite MS, SC, and LA looking like they could be in play it's highly unlikely. Of the "Confederate" states, VA is the only one I'd see as a possible pick-up, based on the direction that its Partisan Voting Index has been trending in recent Presidential elections. However, they may not quite be there yet, and McCain is probably stronger in that state than the typical Repug would be. I would say FL would be in play, but I just still don't trust a fair vote count coming out of that state; apologies to any Floridian DUers if that's a prejudicial statement on my part.

[Secret_Society]

21. No

[BlooInBloo]

24. No, Western states are.

[kentuck]

28. Yes.

The South is much more Democratic than the West, if given the opportunity to vote for the right person. And wouldn't it be grand to slay all the stereotypes? :-) Just a dream, huh??

[SoCalDem]

29. if Bob Barr is really running, Georgia may be

Virginia is..

[Carrieyazel]

33. No way. And him averaging that much of the white vote in South is impossible.

That's how polarized the electorates are in most southern states. McCain will get an overwhelming % of the white vote, while Obama gets a massive percentage of the black vote. Since no state has a black majority, no way for him to win.

[crankychatter]

35. Do not discount the White Southern vote... we are more in tune than the media would have you know

my belief is they are most certainly in play

Louisiana... possibly Georgia... Florida and Missouri

Given exposure to new ideas and appropriate education, Southern people are well able to recover from parochial racism

give them a chance

Obama will

[gravity]

36. Virginia

I don't think it is certain, but Obama has a chance there.

I know many republicans who are talking about voting for him here

[Gore1FL]

37. yes they are... here is why:

from am OLD DU article

http://www.democraticunderground.com/articles/01/08/27_map.html

You can see many of those states really aren't that far off. Consider southerners disgusted with McCain and GOTV for Dems, even if the majority of the states don't turn blue, outright, there are plenty of House and Senate seats to pick up.

[smalll]

38. Um,

no.

[Zynx]

39. Nope. How is he going to get more of the white vote in the South than any Dem has since Carter?

The higher the percentage of African Americans in a state, the more Republican the White vote is. Virginia the Republicans average 60% of the white vote, but in Mississippi they average 80-85%. We can't overcome those margins. They have a lock on the South for the time being. Virginia is doable, but only if Obama cracks 40-42% of the White vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. If You Look At Mississippi Bush* Got Almost As Much Of The African American Vote As Kerry Got

Of The White Vote...

[Lyric]

43. Not a chance. He won't even get all of the swing states.

At least not without a LOT of damage control and cozying up to Clinton's base. I hope for America's sake that Obama isn't nearly as blind as some of his supporters appear to be.

[hokies4ever]

47. They'll be in play at the local and other levels

That's the beauty of Obama's campaign. He's worked hard to create a huge grassroots movement that will be able to challenge all public offices from the local to the state level even in the reddest of the red states.

[Tesha]

48. No. The South will vote for the Republican (NT)