2 links to rasmussen polls

[jerryster]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_presidential_race_state_by_state_snapshot


The article in the first link shows McCain leading Obama by 11 points among white women. So Obama (whom I support) definitely has some bridge building to do.

[still_one]

1. sorry, but until this race focuses on the TWO final candidates, it is meaningless

mccain has been given a free ride. That will end once our candidate is official

It will become very clear on what the issues our:

1. mccain against national healthcare Democrats for it
2. mccain for permanent prescense in Iraq Democrats on getting out
3. mccain against head start programs Democrats for head start programs
4. mccain against the GI Bill Democrats for GI bill
5. mccain for judges like scalia and thomas Democrats for judges to preserve the right to privicy
6. mccain for continuing bush policies Democrats against it

right now the impression that the MSM have been giving is that mccain is some sort of moderate

mccain is NOT a moderate, he is an EXTREME right-wing neocon

[jerryster]

5. I don't think it's meaningless.

I understand what you mean. As always, once the race is defined as between 2 candidates in the GE, the differences become more defined as well. Still, I think this poll is a barometer and has some meaning.

[still_one]

16. OK, I just don't think at this time it is particularly significant, especially since

the media has hardly touched mccain

[yourguide]

2. He will have some bridge building to do with Hillary's core supporters...

However Hillary will have a lot to do with whether or not the bridge gets built itself.

She employed a scorched earth campaign, burning that bridge on her way out of Super Tuesday...she will have to help in the rebuilding effort. And considering the fact the majority of folks feel that HRC has unfairly attacked Obama it will be interesting to see if her true motives are to support and unite the party or if they were truly selfish and self centered from the beginning.

The way she loses will indeed reflect what truly lies in her heart.

[jerryster]

6. Your last sentence is perfectly phrased.

I agree with you. In spite of her talk about ultimately uniting the party, she may have a preference for seeing Obama lose. Then she will have 4 years of I told you so moments. I hope that's not the case and that she ultimately rises above that. But at this point that's all it is, hope.

[still_one]

17. I definitely agree /nt

[Mz Pip]

3. Democratic women

who would vote for McCain over Obama better come down to earth and take a long hard look at McCain's pro-war and anti-choice policies. Anyone who supported Hillary would hardly be considered a pro-war anti-choice individual.

If this is done out of spite, it is to their detriment. I hope none of them are of the age where reproductives rights may become an issue, or have daughters who share those issues. I hope none of them have sons or daughters in the military.

Unless you are a white woman who has no children, is post menopausal and with no health care issues you voting for McCain is definitely voting against your best interests.

[jerryster]

7. I was concerned about it being spite as well.

My first reaction to that disparity in McCain's favor was one of disbelief. That is why I wondered if there were enough women who support Hillary who are angry enough to vote for McCain.

After stepping back for a moment I'm not so sure. I agree with everything in your post because I share your positions on those issues. What has to be considered and acknowledged is that there are many people (men and women) who don't share our views. I wonder what percentage of that 11 per cent advantage are women who do not share our positions as opposed to and in addition to disaffected Clinton supporters.

[Mz Pip]

9. Those are just my top two.

There's everything else to consider. Hillary and McCain agree on nothing that I know of except the gas tax.

I can't imagine that saving $15 over a period of weeks is so important that they would throw everything else out.

Spite seems to be the main driving force of this defection.

I don't think spite should figure into our founding fathers' desire for an informed electorate.

[cd3dem]

19. Take off your Obama-rose-colored glasses!

If you wish to understand Hillary supporters, stop looking at things based on your Obama beliefs!

As a female, who still ovulates and has four teenage children, two who ovulate, and only one who would be disqualified from the draft if implemented for males and females, disqualified on disability... someone who has not had medical insurance for two years, unemployed or under-employed for two years... hard-core lifelong dem and feminist...

I will never vote for Obama!!!

Why: multiple reasons but some... Obama and his campaign took advantage of the media's attack of the Clintons as racist! This to me was inexcusable! Those with ORCG will say the Clintons played the race-card or say Obama never said anything... I say yes, he did not! If I were to respect Obama as above race and not the "black" candidate.. then he should have spoken up and defended the Clintons as having worked for diversity and helping persons of color throughout their careers... he did not speak out to defend the Clintons.. he quietly waited for the numbers to turn and for him to collect 90 plus percent of the black vote... dividing this country and the race issue is dividing us not uniting us... Obama and his supporters have treated Hillary disrespectfully and with a sexist tone... his comments have been dismissed and overlooked.. not only has he spoken in a sexist tone.. but his behavior toward her as a senator and first lady are a huge turn-off... he slams Hillary on her character and her personality... to me this is just plain rude! His tone and behavior toward Hillary has greatly harmed the stature of women and the respect women have received. It has been said that women and women's issues have taken a slide downward during this election... This indicated to me that he is not a uniter again! Obama does not address the issues and has built his campaign based on spiritual rhetoric. I believe he would be a president in training and if he managed to get elected, which I do not think he can, he would be a bad president and we would end up with a republican in 4 years as president and possibly lose control of the House and Senate... I do not like his ties to Wright, Rezco and Ayres... it shows lack of judgment! What are his beliefs on race in America? Has he ever defined his beliefs? I do not like how this race has been about who can raise more money and excessive spending! Yet, Obama claims he is the new kind of democrat! I also do not like the way Dean, Pelosi and the media have shoved Obama down America's throat! Is it not our decision? And, I have heard too many reports of fraud first hand... and believe this election has too many irregularities.

Will I vote for McCain? No, I have never voted for a republican. I will vote for Hillary Clinton, and so will my ovulating daughter!

[jerryster]

27. I appreciate your passion

Nit being a woman, I can't pretend to know the journey a woman goes through. Being Caucasian, I can't pretend to know the journey African Americans go through. Nonetheless, I will try to address some of the points you make.

First, I believe it was up to the Clintons to defend their efforts on behalf of ALL Americans. This a contest, after all, and it is not the opponent's responsibility to extol your virtues. If Obama waited for the numbers, as you say, then it was a winning strategy. I understand it's not pretty, but elections never are.

I also think that Hillary has run an uneven and surprisingly unprepared campaign. These last couple of weeks have done nothing to change my opinion of that.

I do agree that Obama has built his campaign on spiritual rhetoric. Soaring, eloquent rhetoric at times, but it may not be enough to win the GE.

I'll end this response with a plea that you cast your vote for whoever the Dem nominee is. Your paragraph about who you are - woman, mother, uninsured - describes the kind of person who would fare badly under a McCain (Bush 3) administration. I urge you to reconsider and vote for the Dem nominee, whoever it may be.

[Douglas Carpenter]

4. there certainly is some good news too...but yes they need some bridge building

with both white males and white women:

"Sunday, May 11,"

"Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 61.3% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants"

"Underlying this dismal outlook for the GOP is the fact that more and more people are considering themselves to be Democrats. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago. "
link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. (see recent daily results). McCain leads by twelve percentage points among White Men and eleven points among White Women while Obama overwhelmingly attracts the African-American vote. Among Hispanic voters, Obama leads 58% to 35%. "

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The ongoing competition between Obama and Clinton may be causing angst for party leaders, but the competition has been good for the Party label.

Among all voters nationwide, Obama is viewed favorably by 51%, McCain by 49% (see recent daily favorable ratings).

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 52% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally (see recent Democratic Nomination results). As noted Friday, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%"

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[jerryster]

12. Another challenge for you:

The article shows us with an electoral lead of 260 to 240. I went thru Rasmussen's state by state poll and circled the states the poll did not rate overwhelmingly Dem or Repub. There were only 2! And the 2 are Nevada and Virginia. However, according to the poll, both are favored to go red; Nevada by 8 points, Virginia by 11.


In your view, Mr. Carpenter, what needs to be done to overcome this deficit? (as a side note I can't even begin to think of having to wait on election day for these 2 states to be the deciders). And this is with Rasmussen giving us OH, PA, and MI.

[hokies4ever]

8. Just wait till they hear about McCain's flipflopping on abortion

not even wanting to include rape/incest/health exceptions. As soon as this gets some big play in the MSM McCain is toast!

[MadBadger]

10. Bush beat Kerry by 11 points Among White Women

This isnt an Obama thing. I think that is usual

[jerryster]

13. Interesting.

I wasn't aware of that. Thanks for the input. But if that's what put Bush over the top in Ohio, then I remain concerned.

[MadBadger]

14. Also, according to Rasmussen, Obama leads 59-35 among hispanics

Kerry only won 53-44 among them. Not to mention we expect African American turnout and the youth voters to increase and to gain a larger margin of victory among those groups

[jerryster]

20. The youth vote...

While it's always encouraging to see the youth vote increasing, I never count on it. If during the campaign someone from our side says they're counting on the youth vote to put us over the top, that's code for WE'VE
LOST.

[MadBadger]

24. The difference between this year and all other years is the candidate

We expected the youth vote to turn out in larger numbers because of what was going on in the country relative to Iraq, the environment, etc. Now, I think they did turn out in larger numbers, its just that so did everybody else. The difference between four years ago and this year is that a lot of the new youth voters are not just turning out for those issues, but they are turning out for Obama. I think they have a candidate that they can believe in and that will drive them to the polls.

Oh, and I'm one of them.

[jerryster]

28. I agree that it is Obama the man

who is stirring up that energy among young voters. You're one of them and I think it's great. Unfortunately, the youth vote turnout on election day is usually not what a lot of candidates believed, thought or hoped it would be.

I really hope that this year is markedly different and that most of your peers (and mine!)realize that turnout is everything and come out and vote for Obama OR Clinton.

[MadBadger]

29. For example, lets go with Wisconsin and their primary

I go to Wisconsin and this number makes me feel good. In 2004, the primary was 11% 18-29. In 2008, it was 16%. In Iowa in 2004, 17-29 was 17%, this year 22%. In California in 2004, 11%, this year 16%. In CT it was 5%, now 10%. IN GA, it was 11%, now 18%. Can you sense a trend?

[jerryster]

31. Great trend!

I had heard someone (I think on Air America) citing the increasing percentages of young voters. I admit that bodes well and the optimist in me believes that it bodes better for Dems than Repubs.

[rodeodance]

11. Face it, Democrats: Barack Obama's got a growing problem with whites

shall we talk about this issue without calling posters Racist please?





http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/05/11/2008-05-11_face_it_democrats_barack_obamas_got_a_gr.html


Face it, Democrats: Barack Obama's got a growing problem with whites
BY JUAN WILLIAMS

Sunday, May 11th 2008, 4:00 AM

Hillary Clinton, down to her last straw, is making the case that she is the better candidate to run against the Republicans because, unlike Barack Obama, she can win white Democrats.

She is right. But because she is daring to touch the hot button of racial politics, she is being told to shut up or risk being charged with exploiting racial tensions for political advantage.

The facts are stubborn, however. Since his phenomenal win with 33% of the white vote in nearly all-white Iowa, Obama has been unable to get a firm grip on white Democrats. He has won a majority of these voters in only six states, the biggest of which is his home state of Illinois. Clinton has defeated Obama among white voters in key states such as California, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Exit polls show Clinton winning an overwhelming average of 57% of white Democrats since the February Super Tuesday elections.

..........

And now we are heading into a general election with an even larger group of white voters in play, key independents and suburbanites in "toss-up" districts that swing between Republicans and Democrats.

So it is critical for the Democrats to focus on what it means to nominate this particular black candidate. It is critical for them to honestly assess his strengths and weaknesses, even when those are uncomfortably intertwined with his race.

…………….
To some, any reference to such numbers is desperate at best - and race-baiting at worst.

"I have much broader base to build a winning coalition on," Clinton told USA Today this week, making clear that she consistently does better among white, working-class voters. "There is a pattern emerging here."


More.....

[jerryster]

15. no calling anyone racist from me

One of the reasons I started my own thread was because I've been disgusted by the low level of discourse lately at the DU. So far this thread has been at a level that I expect from DUers. My thanks to all who have responded that way.

Hillary's words, I have to admit, reflect some truth. It's unfortunate how they came out and how they were perceived ie; that hard working Americans can only be white Americans. I don't believe for one second that she believes that.

[still_one]

22. She knew what she was doing, just like Bill Clinton making the Jessie Jackson comment

Bill Clinton, whose wonderful speech on how Democrats unite while republicans divide

This primary was a very eye-opening experience for me, I learned who the Clinton's rally were by the way they ran their campaign

[still_one]

21. The only problem that Obama has with whites where race is an issue, is among white racists

and there is no way Clinton will get that vote either

When they start actually looking at mccain's record, and debating the real issues then it makes sense

Clinton was suppossed to win the nomination, REMEMBER. Over a year ago, SHE was the CHOSEN candidate

She ran a terrible campaign, and that reflects more than anything why she doesn't deserve the nomination

[cd3dem]

25. Obamanites do not care about the reality of winning the GE!!!

They only focus on winning the nomination.. Dean, Pelosi, Kerry, Kennedy... only want to defeat Hillary.. they think the presidency is in the bag for the democratic party... so they have fed the Clintons to the wolves to get BO's name on the ticket!

When McCain becomes president, they will blame it on Hillary Clinton not dropping out sooner!

[Mz Pip]

26. No the blame will go

to people like you who stick their fingers in their ears and hold their breathe refusing to see what a disaster a McCain presidency will be.

Perhaps you need a bit of a reminder. Hillary was all but the inevitable a year ago. It was going to be a Clinton v Giuliani race. Then people voted. What a concept. They didn't vote because anyone was shoved down their throat.

If Clinton is the nominee I will vote for her. 4 more years of Bush policies are not worth hanging on to your perceptions that Clinton has somehow been wronged.

[karynnj]

18. I predict that that will change within weeks of Clinton conceding

Why? Abortion. I hate that our politics for the last decade or more have been influenced so much by something that affects neither the foreign policy or economic direction of the country. (I am not demeaning its genuine importance to either side - on our side, women's right to make that decision on theirs - a moral certainty that it is imperative to end this. ) This year, there are likely many Clinton supporting feminists saying McCain - though I doubt they will stay with him as it becomes real and the choice is fixed.

In 2004, Kerry won white women - even though he lost some, who might otherwise have supported him to fear. The level of fear has diminished and I would bet if the Kerry/Bush vote were now - he would not only win, but he would specifically regain the "security moms". On the issue of the war, McCain really is Bush 3 - he and his surrogates are speaking of how he criticized Bush, but there are likely many videos from 2004 where he validated Bush on that issue. He is not fighting a Republican abortion plank, that is for a constitutional amendment that excludes even things like rape and incest. I think this goes beyond reversing Roe vs Wade, because it makes it harder to change and it would seem prevent blue states from having laws keeping it legal. In fact, it is immensely difficult to pass a constitutional amendment, but in the election - if it is kept - McCain will be questioned on it and for the first time the issue may cut against the Republicans rather than the Democrat.

Given those two issues - I would be willing to bet that given the shift in public opinion on the war, Obama will do at least as well as John Kerry did in getting the votes of white women. The key is that people are not focussed on the issues and McCain's moderate image is helping him now.

[still_one]

23. not only abortion, but the Iraq war, the economy, food and energy prices, and mccain

promising to be bush the third

[jerryster]

30. Kerry won white women?

I'll admit I don't know who is correct, you or hnmnf (response # 10).
You say Kerry won, hnmnf says Bush won? Help me out here so I can better respond to your post. Thanks.

[karynnj]

32. She's correct - I meant to say women

I still stand by my arguments.