A funny thing happened on the way to the numbers - what happened to Hillary's Add On SDs?

[grantcart]

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/add-on-superdelegate-selection-schedule.html
All the numbers from DemconWatch - the most authoritative source on all delegate matters.'

In calculating the numbers for phrgndumass Huckabee index we made an assumption that add on delegates (superdelegates that are chosen by state party's late in the process) would follow their state's vote - especially if they were won by substantial numbers.

While that has been true in Obama's case with him picking up all of the add on SDs projected (including 1 from Utah this weekend) the same has not been true of the Clinton campaign.

This week we expected that the Clinton campaign would pick up 4 super delegates from MA and OH add ons.

Instead it is one for Hillary and one for Obama and two unannounced. Given the fact that Obama has now taken over the talking point of leading in SDs you would have thought that the two unannounced would have announced if they had a Clinton preference.

Massachusetts 2 5/10/2008 Arthur Powell (C) and Martha Coakley elected by the State Party Committee
Ohio 2 5/10/2008 Dave Regan (O) and William Bashein selected by the State Executive Committee

And here is the Super Delegate today for Obama





http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/california-superdelegate-pledges-to.html

CALIFORNIA SUPERDELEGATE PLEDGES TO BARACK OBAMA

Young Democrats of America DNC Member Cites Obama’s Ability to Bring Young People into the Process


CHICAGO, IL – Today, Young Democrats of America Board Member and Former California Young Democrats President Crystal Strait pledged to vote for Barack Obama for president. Strait is a superdelegate and Democratic National Committee Member from California. Strait is the 276th superdelegate to endorse Obama. Obama is 155 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.


Strait said, “While representing the Young Democrats of America at the DNC, my number one priority is to ensure that young people are fully represented at the polls and in the Party. Barack Obama has shown a real commitment to young voters in his campaign and in response young people have overwhelmingly voted and caucused for Obama in these primary contests. We know that if a young person votes three times in a row for a Party, they become a Party voter for life. We know that because of high youth turnout in 2004 and 2006, 2008 is the third and critical election for young voters. And that’s why I know I want to pledge my delegate vote to Barack Obama.”



DemconWatch also has a new graph showing Obama's SD lead:





With a pick up of one SD today Obama's numbers are


Super Delegates Obama 275 and Clinton 270.5

Pledged Delegates Obama 1590.5 and Clinton 1426.5

Total Delegates Obama 1865.5 and Clinton 1697


Magic number Obama only 159 and Clinton 327.5

Pelosi magic number Obama only 36.5 and Clinton 200.5



On a related note Senator Clinton had a fund raiser in NY that was shown on C Span. An enthusiastic crowd of what appeared to be highly motivated professional woman were treated to a nice introduction by a very articulate and engaging Chelsea Clinton who made nice remarks about her mother before Mothers Day.

What was missing? Some of the 3 dozen Clinton Super Delegates. Rep Charles Rangel and one other congresswoman was there but none of the other heavy weights (Schumer, Patterson, Andrew Cuomo, etc appeared to be there as she went through a list of politicians in the audience and it consisted mostly of borough city councilpeople)

[grantcart]

1. And here are this week add on SDs

Colorado 1 5/17/2008 Selected during the State Convention

Kansas 1 5/17/2008 Selected during the State Convention

Nevada 1 5/17/2008 Selected by the state convention as a whole

California 5 5/18/2008 Selected during the Delegation Meeting

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Expect more tomorrow... the trickle will accelerate

the media poobahs were talking today as presumptive nominee

Remember that post on dog whistles, that is another one and this one is from every major media outlet

[grantcart]

3. I wouldn't be surprised that tomorrow and Wednesday is a big day for SDs

they will want to box in the WV primary results with good news cycles on both days.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. I will not fully count on that...

but Wednesday probably

My gut feeling is that most SDs will leave this alone tomorrow and tuesday... and then go for it....

Of course my gut has been wrong before

[grantcart]

7. well they have a number of them up their sleeves that will come out when they want

they still have two unannounced SDs from Hawaii for example lol

[Boz]

8. There might be a whole group of California SDs this week

They've been shopping weakness all this last week and are close to leaping.

They may have already and the announcement may be forthcoming.

[grantcart]

9. next Sunday they appoint 5 add ons that will be telling

[Boz]

11. They might be waiting for enmasse, as I understand it there are 4 or 5 tipping in addition to the

Addons, a one time tip of 10 or so california supers at this time would put to rest the big state fall question.

[cliffordu]

5. Her add on superdelegates are waiting for the sniper fire to let up.

No, wait: They're waiting to get off work in the coal mines and come to her side.

No, wait: They're in line for their gas tax rebates drinking Royal Crown.

No, wait: They're moving the goalposts to San Juan.

No, wait: They're too busy trolling on GDP.....

[grantcart]

6. and the SDs that were not at the NY fund raiser to give her moral support?

OMG its on CSPAN right now

actually a very nice appearence by Chelsea but you will see kind of a slim turnout of big names compared with her earlier fund raisers where the stage was jammed with folks trying to get in the range of the camera.


If you watch she will say something to the effect

If you don't like what your seeing about the campaign just turn off the TV.

lol

[grantcart]

10. good night

[grantcart]

12. a final kick

[Snarkoleptic]

13. All your delegate are belong to us. - CATS