Obama Has Absolutely No Chance in West Virginia

[FatDave]

He will lose in a landslide. Hillary is poised to win by more than 20 points.

Why, as an Obama supporter, am I bringing this up? Because I remember Pennsylvania. I remember the Clinton supporters, here and all over TV, spinning a victory that everybody saw coming as some kind of game changing event when it was nothing of the sort.

So I just want to point out today, the day before the West Virginia primary, that a large Clinton victory in that state's primary is a foregone conclusion. It won't change anything. She might net 10 delegates which will be undone by Obama's looming Oregon victory.

So please, don't go acting like the West Virginia primary outcome is some kind of surprise mandate. We all know it isn't.

[Blue_Roses]

1. why is W.Virginia so stuck in a time warp?

It's like they isolated themselves from the rest of the world.:shrug:

[MercutioATC]

13. Not just WV...all of West Pennsyltucky (and southern Ohio, too).

Eliminate the cities, and it's all blood red.

We "northerners" in Cleveland think it's something in the water...

[RazBerryBeret]

22. and some of us in Columbus feel the same way, Merc!

obviously not enough of us, though!!

[MercutioATC]

28. Well, that's because Columbus is right on the Mason-Dixon Line...

Half of it is in the north and half in the south.


(yes, I know that's both historically and geographically incorrect, but you'll never convince southern Ohioans of that)

[theHandpuppet]

39. Gee, that explains a lot

Like why, in the last two congressional elections, Jean Schmidt's Democratic opponents were supported by 2 to 1 margins in the Appalachian counties of District 2. It makes you wonder how Ted Strickland, Governor of Ohio, who was Scioto County born and bred, ever managed to crawl out of his outhouse down thar in the hills to become a serious Democratic leader and potential VP.

Yes, all us rural and/or Appalchian folks are nothing but a bunch of ignorant bigots. Why don't you climb down off that high horse?

[riskpeace]

42. The view is too self-satisfying up there.

My opinion is that when you combine this arrogant smugness towards working class voters with the complete screw up by the DNC of the FL and MI primaries, the Democratic nominee will have some real serious obstacles to getting the needed electoral votes to win in the fall.

Of course, I live in a small town, so I am bitterly clinging to my Bible and my rifle. What do I know? :sarcasm:

[MercutioATC]

44. You're attributing words to me that I didn't type.

It is a fact, however, that poorer rural communities tend to be less politically informed (often due to lack of access).

It's also a fact that, for some reason, Western PA, Southern OH, most of KY and WV are essentially the same voting demographic. They vote red. As a group, they are the mythical "God, Guns and Gays" voters we all hear of.


None of that has anything to do with my Mason-Dixon Line statement.

Draw an east/west line through Columbus. Drive 10 minutes north and talk to people. Their accents, their views, their priorities are mostly stereotypically "northerner". Drive 10 minutes south of the line and the accents, views and priorities are those of "southerners".

Yes, it's a generalization, but it's one of those strange facts that does exist. Ohio is the easternmost Midwest state and is on the northern boundary of the lower 48, yet the entire southern half of the state is more "southern" than some actual southern states.

[BlooInBloo]

31. Yup.

[WinkyDink]

36. You "Northerners" are Mid-Westerners. We in PA. are the Real Deal.

And we Yankees (Philly, Gettysburg, Ben Franklin, etc.) don't care to have our Democratic bona fides sneered at by anyone not from the Original 13 Colonies, thankyouverymuch.

[FatDave]

18. They just have no large metropolitan areas

Biggest city in the state, Charleston, has a population of just over 50,000. The whole metro area has a little over 300K. Obama does well in the cities and Hillary does well in the rural areas, at least in the east.

[NOLALady]

41. Maybe West Virginians live in the past...

the past of the days Gone With The Wind.

[MindMatter]

45. It would be a little more relevant if he actually campaigned there.

[YOY]

2. It'll be a win for Hillary like Indianna was

A weak win and nothing more.

[MadBadger]

3. Hillary will win like 66-33, but that should surprise nobody

Obama lost by that much in Southern Indiana and Southern Ohio, sometimes more. I see West Virginia as just the same thing.

[Triana]

4. WV is over - Hillary will win as expected - it won't change anything - Obama is still the nom...

...nothing to discuss, IMO.

[FatDave]

30. I'll bet Team Clinton is discussing it plenty wednesday morning (nt)

[skipos]

5. "The tide is turning! How can Obama win in the fall if he cant win WV?!?"

I can't wait to hear this delusional nonsense tomorrow.

[livetohike]

6. Obama hasn't spent much time there at all and I think it

is because at this point, he wants to let Clinton go out with winning something.

Last week, I thought he should blanket the state with appearances and have a team of surrogates out there campaigning for him. But now, I think it's part of the strategy to give Clinton a way to get out.

[susankh4]

40. I think it's part of his strategy to....

stay away from states where he knows he will lose badly. Like MI. And W.Va. And KY.

Axelrod wants us to think that the only reason he lost those states is because he did not campaign in them.

[livetohike]

46. MI he did lose because his name wasn't on the ballot!!

Also, I believe the candidates agreed (signed a pledge) not to campaign there. Obama was behind in huge double digits in OH and PA before he started campaigning there and while he did lose those states, he closed the gap significantly.

I disagree with what you say. He is not agressively campaigning in W.VA. If he did, his loss would not be so great, imo.

[NJmaverick]

7. Follow the lead of your candidate and forget WV, there are more important

matters to attend to

[FatDave]

21. Well, I have forgotten about winning it.

Hell, he didn't even campaign there. My point is only demonstrating that we all see it coming. I know tomorrow the Clinton supporters will be screaming "w00t!" and "in your face Barry", so I just want to head that off.

[tridim]

8. Hillaryis44 delegates will be here claiming her WV win is the greatest comeback in all of history.

[Texas Hill Country]

9. actually, its more like 35-40pts... pretty brutal

http://www.pollster.com/08-WV-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[iamthebandfanman]

10. youre right, but it doesnt matter

cause its already over.

[Ian David]

11. But if she wins West Virginia, most of her staff say they will quit if she doesn't drop out.

[Texas Hill Country]

16. who said that? link please

[Ian David]

26. Andrea Mitchell

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5933367

[grantcart]

12. expect a bunch of super delegates on Wednesday and Thursday to counter the news

[Hippo_Tron]

14. I say it's a good night if Obama olds her to his winning margin in neighboring Virginia

Which was 64-35. Virginia is also a big state that we have a chance of carrying in the General Election. West Virginia... not so much.

[PBS Poll-435]

47. That'll be the day.

VA goes blue and WV goes red?

Not bloody likely.

WV voted for freaking Dukakis.

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. I agree with you. n/t

[indimuse]

17. Couldn't win in MI either..Tis the REAL reason he took his name off the ballot!

[FatDave]

19. Now Indimuse, you and I both know...

..that that is utter bullshit. Not many straws left for you to grasp at these days though, are there?

[MadBadger]

24. Don't give indimuse too much credit.

[democrattotheend]

23. He could have won MI

There was a poll taken a couple months ago, when a revote looked like a possibility. Clinton and Obama were tied at 41 each, with the rest undecided. And that was after Clinton had taken up the mantle of being a "champion" for the people of Michigan to have their votes count, and in the middle of the Wright controversy.

[FatDave]

27. I know.

I also know the real reasons everyone else removed their names from the ballot. It's just not worth the effort of typing it yet again, especially when I know the person I was replying to knows it also.

[Blondbostonian]

37. You're a liar Indimuse

I can't wait for your girl to drop out and have you implode over the news.

[Pachamama]

20. Another reason why a Hillary win of WV is insignificant - because even if she was the nominee, she

would not beat McCain in West Virginia in the General Election for President. So any win by her tommorrow there and efforts by her supporters to show it as being a sign of how she is better qualified to be the nominee is just ridiculous.

So she gains 10 more pledged delegates from WV....yawn....it changes nothing and means nothing....

I am so tired of Hillary and just want her to go away....I have had it and I think one more week of this is all the majority of this country can take....

[Eurobabe]

25. She wants to go out with a bang

that's my guess. Kind of like, in your face, now I will bow out. :shrug:

[FatDave]

29. I'm familiar with that theory.

But I won't believe it until I see it. I think it's more likely that she'll say "why would I ever drop out now after such a spectacular victory in WV?" And her bitter-end loyalists will be right there saying the same thing.

But now I'll be able to say "we all saw it coming" and point to this thread.

[BlooInBloo]

32. Yup.

[L0oniX]

33. After WV it's full steam "on to the white house". Yea right !

:evilgrin:

[Window]

34. True that.

Peace:thumbsup:

[tularetom]

35. It doesn't matter - she will call it a comeback win

and try to make us all believe she was the underdog in WV from the beginning.

Y'know, just like she was in Indiana.

[kevinbgoode]

38. *sigh*. . .Guam was more exciting. . .

eom/

[riskpeace]

43. If Gore had won West Virginia,

this long national nightmare known as the Bush Presidency would not have been.

West Virginia is a state in the US. Senator Obama is going to likely lose in the primary there by more than 30 points.

[FatDave]

48. kick for the evening crowd (nt)

[Kahuna]

49. We know.

What's with the big announcement? :shrug:

[FatDave]

50. Just want to make it excruciatingly clear so Hillary's supporters can't act like it's some kind

of validation. You know, the way they did with PA? I just want to make this point: we know Hillary will win and win big. No one will be sirprised. It changes nothing and does not mean she should continue her campaign.

[PermanentRevolution]

51. ---RESURRECTION---

Because, in light of some of the current threads so far tonight, I think it's somewhat appropriate.

I am zombie thread. I crave brains...

[Overseas]

52. I agree and am surprised at the super duper whoopee headlines I see

We were expecting a huge win. She's getting 20%. Not so huge. Time will tell what the final outcome is.
We were expecting a significant double digit HRC win in Indiana and it was only 9 point two percent.