I think that Obama can totally re-draw the electoral map

[Obamamaniac_25]

If Obama runs the general election campaign as well as he ran his nomination campaign to defeat one of the most powerful names in American politics of the last 50 years, I see a victory in November that will boggle our minds. The below states are states that Obama has an excellent chance of carrying that Bush did in 2004 in order of likelihood.
1. Iowa
2. New Mexico
3. Nevada
4. Ohio
5. Colorado
6. Virginia
7. Florida
8. North Carolina
9. Montana
10. South Dakota
11. Mississipi
12. Texas
13. Georgia
14. Louisania

If Obama can win 92-93% of the AA vote and just a third of the white vote in Mississipi, he carries the state. Obama, according to the latest Rasmussen reports presidential tracking poll, carries the Hispanic vote 58-35% over Mccain. If he holds this type of lead over Mccain in the Hispanic and AA communities, he'll make all states with heavy Latino populations incredibly competitive. Texas is within 5 points according to Rasmussen. I saw a recent South Dakota poll that had Obama trailing Mccain by just 3. Montana was roughly the same. I bought into media perceptions that Obama has trouble with the hispanic community but the polls belie this.

He also beats Mccain among Jewish voters. If he can appeal to them further, he can perhaps win Florida.

So, if Obama runs a terrific campaign, he'll re-draw the map, bring us 400 electoral votes possibly, and come in with close to a fillibuster proof senate majority and a huge house majority. He'll be able to implement sweeping progressive reforms.

We are on the cusp of something. It'll take a tremendous effort but Obama has the potential to bring in an electoral landslide that would rival Reagan's 1984 effort.

[knixphan]

1. I'm willing to put my muscle behind that effort.

[agingboomer]

33. I read Audacity of Hope

and I certainly don't remember anything about him taking about Muslims like that. I got that through an e-mail. I think its bogus. I think its a big smear. If you think its true, please provide the page and I'll look it up.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

2. I agree.

Everything's different than it was four years ago.

[Obamamaniac_25]

5. Obama can also appeal to religious voters

If he can get past the distraction of Wright, I think that his christianity will be very attractive to voters we never get. That's why we were treated to the Wright cable news marathon. The republicans are terrified that for the first time, we have an evangelical democratic candidate who doesn't just appeal to secular-types. The way that Senator Clinton and Senator Obama have both spoken about their faith is very appealing. That'll help him redraw the map as well.

[On the Road]

10. THAT is the Silver Lining of the Wright Controversy

Nobody can insinuate that he's a Muslim now without being laughed at.

[aquarius dawning]

14. “I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds of war shift in an ugly direction"

Barack Obama, From Audacity of Hope

“The person who made me proudest of all though was my brother Roy, he converted to Islam”.
Barack Obama, from Dreams of My Father

“Lolo followed Islam....”I looked to Lolo for guidance”.
Barack Obama, From Audacity of Hope

[uponit7771]

41. Do you think the rest of America hates Muslims? Jus askin

[aquarius dawning]

50. Some do. Other's just distrust them. Others love them, I'm sure.

That was never really my point though.

[DemVet]

61. Uh yeah, a good portion of them.

9/11, Iraq, and Afghanistan are still too fresh in most people's minds. They don't blame politicians, they blame the "enemy."

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. Plus Obama's grassroots network

will help make sure folks go to the polls.

You don't have Arkansas on the list; I could see Obama picking up my state, especially if Ron Paul decides to help Bob Barr. The right wingers are concentrated in NW Arkansas, and most of them like Paul or Barr---I could see a lot of them voting Libertarian, which will only help our cause. The Paul factor is one to also keep in mind.

[YvonneCa]

4. Okay...

...the sooner the better! :7

[democrattotheend]

6. Winning a third of the white vote in Mississippi is going to be impossible

Kerry only got 15% and he's white! Obama couldn't even win 30% of the white vote in the primary...I doubt he could in the general. I looked into this at one point, wondering why a state with such a huge black population was such an uphill climb for Democrats, but the white voters there are so overwhelmingly Republican that it makes it impossible.

[Obamamaniac_25]

8. I see-that's unfortunate-n/t

[SoCalDem]

12. don't need Mississippi

:)

[papau]

7. Without Clinton as VP the map will be either Mondale or if he's lucky - Dukakis

[democrattotheend]

9. I don't know that Clinton adds all that much to the ticket

She's winning a lot of people who won't vote for a black man, and that's not going to change with her at the bottom of the ticket. She is also winning people who think Obama does not have enough experience, and there are more experienced people he could put on the bottom of the ticket. She's strong among women, and might help him in that regard, but she also brings a lot of negatives. I think his best bet might be to pick another woman who has less baggage for the bottom of the ticket.

[NJSecularist]

17. He may even be McGovern. n/t

[Obamamaniac_25]

19. 80% think the country is off on the wrong track

The president's approval rating is at 28%. John Mccain is an old and tired candidate with an unpopular war and a looming economic disaster wrapped around his neck.

Mcgovern 1972? Good god. No chance. Worse case is we lose 284-252 or something.

And we won't lose.

[w4rma]

57. Hillary detracts from any ticket that she's on. (nt)

[SoCalDem]

11. I can see THIS map

With Bob Barr & Ron Paul still in it, I can see THIS map

AZ (in case he chooses Napolitano)

and you'll notice I did NOT give us PA, FL or OH..(we'll surely pick up ONE of them)

[democrattotheend]

26. No way on Arizona and Georgia. Pennsylvania is much more likely than either of those.

And 2 different polls taken recently have given Obama a 7 or 9 point lead in PA, so I am not that worried about it. With the state machine behind him in November Obama should do a lot better in PA than he did in the primary.

[SoCalDem]

38. Bob Barr is a Georgia favorite son..he takes from Mccain

and napolitano is MORE popular in AZ, than Mccain

That's why I mentioned THEM :)

AK is blue too, because Ron Paul beat Mccain there and they are not all that keen on their republican slimeball pols up there these days :)

[PBS Poll-435]

13. He Will Definitely Change the Map...

:hide:

[Obamamaniac_25]

15. Are you serious-prodn2000?

Even in an electoral disaster, he'll carry Washington, Oregon, Delaware, CT, Rhode Island, and New York. And that's being conservative and not giving him California, Iowa, etc.

[PBS Poll-435]

16. Totally SERIES!!!1!

:rofl:

[Obamamaniac_25]

18. It'll be Hugh!!!!!!!1111!!!!!!!!!

LOL.

[PBS Poll-435]

20. CALL RIGHT NOW!!!1!

;-)

[democrattotheend]

22. A Republican is going to win DC?

We have a better chance of winning Idaho than McCain has of winning DC. Kerry carried it 91-8.

[PBS Poll-435]

23. We are in unprecedented territory, though.

:rofl:

[democrattotheend]

25. The first African American nominee is going to lose a city that is 56.5% African American?

He'd lose his home state of Illinois before that happened.

[PBS Poll-435]

27. As much as he bashes DC,

I am sure that you realized my "map" was not representative of reality, right?

:toast:

[uponit7771]

39. too funny

[Hawkeye-X]

35. Uh great. Puff, puff, pass please.

That's where you are wrong.. dead wrong...

Hillary is finished, and now it's time to put some effort in securing the election of one Democratic President, by the name of Barack Obama.

Hawkeye-X

[PBS Poll-435]

40. Hi - Humor Calling. Is he in? I know it has been a few months, but I am sure he will remember me.

No I don't want to go to voice-mail!

Yes, I will hold.

[Cosmocat]

21. People are buying into the republican driven ...

electoral map ... The MSM definitely ...

Basically, if a state has been red since 96, it will be red until the end of time ... Meanwhile, the battle ground will ALWAYS be Florida and Ohio, states that went from blue to red, with Pa in play ... Again, until the end of time ...

Thing is, the electoral map has evolved on a regular basis during the whole existence of the United States, and it is going to continue to ... And, in the year 2008, more governorships and more state majorities are in D hands than in R hands ... There is NO reason to think the dems have to stay boxed into the 16 state strategy ...

Frankly, I am writing Florida off, but I think Virginia clearly is in play ... I also cannot see how some of those midwesterns states, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, I just don't see how some of them won't go blue ...

For the reasons noted in other posts, Missipppi, Alabama ... They are lost causes, the DEEP south states ... But, I think he can make NC competitive at least ...

[paulk]

37. "Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada

I just don't see how some of them won't go blue ..."

I can - John McCain, who is from Arizona, a western state.

[VotesForWomen]

24. he is BARELY winning the dem primary, fer christ's sake!!! what in the hell makes you think the rest

of the country is going to have some giant left-ward landslide if/when O gets the nomination??? that's why they call the Obama campaign a cult; it's members have lost all grasp on reality.

[FrenchieCat]

28. Watch and listen.....

and maybe even you will learn something.

Most Americans are tired of war, voodoo economics, and laisser faire government. Those are the big issues, and they are the issues that will count way more than melanin at the end of the day.

[aquarius dawning]

29. He's barely beating a woman with the highest negatives ever according to his own supporters no less.

He's gonna change the map all right.

[Hola]

47. At least he's winning

Clinton is losing to a guy no one had heard of 4 years ago. What does that say for her popularity?

[aquarius dawning]

48. barely winning and that only by excluding the voters of two states

and what good will it to him or us to win the battle only to lose the war? There is no data to suggest that he's going to change the map in the ways being talked about on this thread. There is a large amount of data which suggests that he will actually lose the key swing states against McCain. That same data strongly suggests that Hillary's chances of winning those states are far better than Obama's. Obama is only more electable in the primaries/caucuses.

[gmudem]

54. Obama has had the nomination since the Wisconsin primary

Everything else since has been Clinton wasting time trying to tear Obama down to no avail.

[rockymountaindem]

31. As opposed to Clinton, who is losing the primary

Which according to you must mean she will somehow do better in the general election.

[aquarius dawning]

32. She'll do better where it matters. Who cares if we lose NC by 50,000 fewer votes than last time?

[rockymountaindem]

34. "Where it matters"

Is that in the "states that matter" as defined by the Clinton campaign? Such as Florida, which we lost by 300,000 in 2004 and which I'll remind you is dominated by the same political machine that brought us Recount 2000.

Heaven forbid we try to compete more strongly in the west and in the "border states" like Virginia and take advantage of the pronounced increase in Democratic strength there? Nahhh...

[VotesForWomen]

46. where it matters- you know, states which will actually contribute electoral votes to the dem nomine

[aquarius dawning]

52. We lost virginia by 262,217 votes in 2004 which gets back to my point.

Do you really think Barack Hussein Obama is going to pick up an extra 262,000+ votes in a southern state that has voted Dem twice in the past 60 years? Recent polling data has Hillary ahead of McCain in florida by 1.7 points. the same data has Obama losing to McCain in Florida by 9 points. So, to summarize, your post is utter bullshit.
links:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_clinton-417.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

[rockymountaindem]

53. Recent polling has the Republican suppression machine beating any Democrat in Floriday

100-0.

Also, nice of you to sneak in the whole "Hussein" angle.

[aquarius dawning]

55. Obama loses swing states. Hillary wins them.

She's up by 1.7 against McCain in Florida and he's down by 9. It's the same in Ohio and Missouri. By willfully ignoring this reality, you are complicit in our pending November defeat.

[rockymountaindem]

56. Let me put this more explicitly

We can't win in Florida because the deck is stacked against us. Counting on Florida to go into our column is like waiting for Santa Claus on Dec. 26th. On the other hand:

"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Colorado shows the race for the state’s Electoral College Votes is still close between John McCain and Barack Obama. Obama leads McCain 46% to 43%. At the same time, McCain has a fourteen-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the Centennial State."

From April 21st at http://www.rasmussenreports.com

[aquarius dawning]

58. "We can't win in Florida because the deck is stacked against us."

Bullshit, we didn't win Floirda because 362,000+ people voted for George Bush instead of John Kerry. There was no cheating in the 2004 race (no more or no less than you might find in any other state at least). For someone to argue that we have a chance in Virginia with BO and then try to play down Hillary's lead in Florida against McCain is Naive first and formost and is furthermore, completely disingenuos. You have no objective data to support your arguments. All you have is conjecture and subjective speculation. Barack's 9 electoral votes in Colorado will cost us 57-74 electoral votes in Ohio, Florida, and Missouri and Michigan. Hillary beats McCain in Flrida. Barack doesn't. Hillary beats McCain in Ohio, Barack doesn't. Hillary does better against McCain Missouri than does Barack (she is within the MOE, he isn't). Hillary ties McCain in Michigan. Obama loses to him. I have objective data to support every one of these statements. You have nothing but subjective opinions. Try again.

[rockymountaindem]

62. Two questions:

What happened the last time we won in Florida?
What has changed to make you think that if, *if* we win there again the same thing that happened in 2000 won't happen in 2008?

I'll also point out that as long as we hold Michigan it won't matter if we win Florida or Ohio, because we can take the WH by winning Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada/Colorado, all of which would be easier to win than Florida, not only because of the shenanigans that we risk down there but because should Crist be the VP nom. that would take Florida out of our column regardless. On the other hand, if we get Richardson on our side, NM and Nevada would be practical shoo-ins, or if we get Strickland from Ohio to be our man we'd be well on our way to cementing victory there. It's a long way to the election, and things can change, but what is for sure is that we can win in multiple ways without putting all our eggs in the Florida basket, which as we see didn't work out to well for Gore, who probably should have spent his time campaigning in NH where he lost by a very small margin.

[VotesForWomen]

45. exactly. O-ists think O's going to win UT, WY, SD,ND, GA,SC, NC, etc, so the count just as much as F

FL, OH, PA, etc. no wonder they get called naive.

[VotesForWomen]

42. clue for the naive: the GE electorate is a little different that the dem primary electorate.

[VotesForWomen]

44. another clue: O's not going to win WY, UT, SC, GA, etc. in the GE!! talk about the electoral map,

guess what? some states couunt, and some don't, and Hill's winning that states that count. deny that all you want.

[rockymountaindem]

49. Right

They like Hillary even less because of the irrational hatred of all things Clinton which unfortunately permeates so much of the discourse even among independent and moderate Republican voters.

[Cosmocat]

36. But, Hil ...

the candidate losing to the loser you note, SHE is the one to win it all !!!

[VotesForWomen]

43. clue for the naive: the GE electorate is a little different that the dem primary electorate.

[aquarius dawning]

51. some lessons just have to be relearned.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

30. That's a good list, except FL should be at the bottom of it.

assuming they've found machines that can count, they still get to choose who's on the rolls and where those machines go (or don't go)

[wiggs]

59. Agree. There's a lot more support than is showing in polls. nt

[baldguy]

60. Johnson lost the South in 1964

Will Obama be able to win it back?

[roseBudd]

63. It's like the 137th episode of Seinfeld, Obama is the The Bizarro Jerry

Like George Will said, he is our Ronald Reagan.