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mccain enjoys the reputation of being a maverick (whether or not he's a maverick i have no idea but that's his reputation) he'll appeal to the same independents that he's always appealed to. he's been in the senate about 100 years and his record can be construed as not being hard right. he voted against the bush taxcuts. compared to the gop idiots that are currently in charge he's a moderate so he'll pull some of the more conservative democrats that are uncomfortable with obama. the rightwing really hates him which in my opinion really helps him with the moderates.
he doesn't appear to the public to be a bush republican, in fact he has publicly disagreed with bush on a number of occasions.
i know it's not a popular opinion here, but obama has a few negatives of his own. he turns off many older voters who aren't comfortable with a message of change. his race will come into play in some states (that said those voters wouldn't have voted for hillary either) there are a lot more people like that than you would think. they're not sheet wearing crossburners but they will consider obamas race in their decision.
obama doesn't have much of a track record, and i don't just mean his voting record. the dust-up with rev. wright caught a lot of people by surprise. what other surprises might be lurking out there. plenty of people here say that doesn't matter, but polling data showed differently.
mccain is already well known. the people that hate him are going to always hate him, but to a lot of voters he's a reasonable moderate fiscal conservative.
obama isn't as well known and it remains to be seen how he'll hold up once he's running against mccain. imo he'll be forced to move to the center and the younger obama supporters are untested. will they turn out if he starts looking like a moderate as opposed to a liberal. will they stay on when he starts making compromises, and he will.
and lastly, the media is going to show mccain as a reasonable moderate. anything they say about him that's contentious will be to the effect that the hard right doesn't like him, and so it will actually help him with indies and conservative democrats. i'm expecting the media to ride obama as hard as they can. everything and everyone connected to him will be under a microscope. the rev wright type smears will be constant, as well as any questionable statements by michelle obama.
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