The problem with Sebelius as VP

[woolldog]

I've seen a lot of talk on this board about Sebelius as VP. I have a few problems with that:

1. Lack of foreign policy/military credentials.

McCain will be campaigning on national security and Obama needs a VP pick who can answer that criticism and go toe to toe with him on that and have credibility doing so, i.e. has served or otherwise has extensive national security credentials. As governor, I don't think Sebelius brings this to the table.

2. Not that well known across the country

To counter the fact that Obama is still relatively new and an unknown quantity to many in the electorate, Obama needs to pick someone who is fairly well established. Preferably someone who has a national reputation and has been on the national scene for a while. I don't think Sebelius fits the bill here.

3. Can't deliver her state

It doesn't look like Kansas will be turning blue anytime soon. Even if it does it isn't the kind of state that is critical to the Democrats winning in the fall. Virginia, Ohio, PA, MO even CO+NM+NV are more critical states in this election. And the VP pick should be made with an eye towards improving democratic chances in these critical states.


4. The Bubba vote

Obama needs to pick a VP who will draw in this constituency like a magnet. I don't know if Sebelius brings that to the table.

I'd welcome people's thoughts on the issue.

[MadBadger]

1. Jim Webb, Jim Webb, Jim Webb

Wont it be great when Webb puts the GI bill front and center, and to see McCain have to respond to it? It would seem as if McCain wasnt supporting the troops.

[RepublicanElephant]

14. agree, agree, agree...

webb is a fighter who didn't take crap from dubya, and sure won't take it from mcsame.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

28. I think Webb is the best choice as well...

[woolldog]

45. ditto

Webb is my preferred choice.

[sfam]

53. So the anti-woman rants from the 80s are not a problem? Why exactly?

Noboby ever answers me on this. I'm just wondering why????

[woolldog]

55. he's said he's sorry.

[karynnj]

50. NO NO NO

I know he's a huge hero here and his winning gave us the majority, but he is wrong on many issues - he voted against Kerry and Feingold's amendment that would have required the corps of engineers to consider global warming when sizing water projects. He really is barely a Democrat. He also is a loose cannon and I doubt that's what's wanted. (Not to mention the Republicans could go after his books and even his service.)

[Carrieyazel]

63. Webb nearly let himself get beat by Gorge Allen, with everything going right.

Maccaca and other idiocies from the atrocious Allen campaign should have been enough for Webb to score at least a two-point victory in VA. But it very well could have gone the other way.

How could Webb as a #2, bring home VA to B.O.? I don't see it.

[thatsrightimirish]

2. I agree

Sam Nunn would be a good choice, but his social positions will be tough for a lot of people to swallow. It is really hard to find someone with foreign policy credentials so I say we go after Ohio. Obama should choose Strickland

[woolldog]

7. A perfectly reasonable approach

There are a few competing strategies. And I'm not sure which one is best. Here are the leading candidates, imo, and the strategy they work with.


1. Webb--(Military-foreign policy + bi-partisan + swing state strategy)

2. Strickland/Rendell (swing state strategy)

3. Richardson (experience + Western coast/TX + Hispanic strategy )

4. Wes Clark (Military-foreign policy strategy)

5. Clinton (Reconciliation strategy + female)

[AllentownJake]

8. No Rendell

that man would shoot off his mouth way to much. He will ensure PA on his own because he's a good soldier and he wants to retire as a Senator or in the Cabinent.

[thatsrightimirish]

16. Im for swing state strategy

I know it kinda goes against the 50 state strategy that I'm in favor of, but I think Obama does a good enough expanding the map into places like Colorado all by himself. Gore lost Ohio by around 3%, Kerry by around 1%. If we add on a popular Governor from that state I think that will tip the balance in a state that is trending our way anyway.

[woolldog]

21. I can't argue with you.

Even though I'd be underwhelmed with Strickland as the VP. If Obama can win both Ohio and PA then he'd be virtually assured of winning the GE.

[karynnj]

54. Actually without Blackwell, Kerry would likely have won

given there would have been adequate machines.

You also have to consider Bush was at around 50 then, now he's 30 at best - and McCain can be tied to him. The economy is FAR worse now and people have shifted a huge amount on the war. Bush would not beat Kerry now ---- and McCain shouldn't be able to beat Obama.

[MrSlayer]

3. Yes.

It's Wes Clark time.

[NightWatcher]

4. he needs someone who can guarantee him a state the dems didnt take in 04

and someone who is not polarizing would help. Yes, I'm playing the "white male" card on this one

[dansolo]

56. Bob Graham

Popular ex-governor and ex-senator from Florida. Oh, and he also was the head of the Senate Intelligence Committee during the IWR vote, and voted against it. He is the perfect choice, and he satisfies all of the criteria.

[Faygo Kid]

5. Agree with 1. Disagree with 4.

2. and 3. are speculative.

1. has validity, and is why I don't favor her at this point. 4. is silly. I don't know if he can get the Bubba vote, but Bubba is hurting big time now, and those without jobs or health care are likely to vote for those who provide solutions.

[gcomeau]

6. Not entirely sold on Sebelius myself yet. However...

1. Foreign Policy/Military

I personally think Domestic/Economy creds in a VP will go further. On Iraq we've already got not only the "everyone knows it's a disaster" angle covered but also the "most people agree what to do about it" angle. Get the hell out. I don't think that's going to be the problem for Obama against McCain that some people seem to think it is.

The economy on the other hand, that's where there's room to improve. Everyone agrees that's a disaster to, but as for what to do about it? That's a lot more murky, and thus takes more work to convince people Obama is the one to handle it. Sure, McCain's whole "I don't understand economics" factor is going to do wonders there, but I still see this as trumping Foreign Policy/National Security when we're looking at VPs

2. Not well known...

No argument. Of course that would change fast.

3. Can't deliver her state

Probably not. But I think this is an over-rated criteria. I'd prefer to have a VP that swung a wide swath of the electorate over one that gave a one state edge.

4. The Bubba vote.

The "Bubba vote" is probably 20 or 25% of the electorate (I think I'm overestimating there, but whatever)... but do you really think the people not voting for Obama because he's a liberal black guy with Hussein in his name are going to change their mind because of a VP?

Women on the other hand are over 50% of the electorate, and they would mostly LOVE to see a woman in the White House, especially after they just got so close to having one as the presidential candidate. I can see Obama consolidating the female democratic vote and swinging a lot of female independents with a woman as a running mate.

[woolldog]

9. excellent point about the female vote

making up such a large % of the electorate. I hadn't thought of that.

[hokies4ever]

29. I like Sebelius

She's a woman who goes along with Obama's message of a new style of cooperative politics. She has executive experience and seems like she would be 100% dedicated to Obama, not like Clinton who would be dedicated to herself to a large degree.

[MediaBabe]

31. So you'll throw me a bone by naming a woman.

It would be a slap in the face to all women to have spent months watching a most qualified woman trashed for the sake of Obama and then have him choose a female to serve as VP as a sop.

"Hey, you got a girl on the ticket, what are you bitching about? Is it that 'periodic' thing again?"

[woolldog]

49. Clinton is no more qualified than Obama

and I can think of several female senators who are more "qualified" than both Clinton or Obama.

The presidency isn't about selecting the person whose resume is the longest....which is why Senators like Clinton, Edwards, and Obama had a shot to get nominated over Dems like Biden, Richardson, and Dodd.

[gcomeau]

61. Oh for cripes sake.

"It would be a slap in the face to all women to have spent months watching a most qualified woman trashed for the sake of Obama and then have him choose a female to serve as VP as a sop."

Give it a rest. Clinton trashed for the sake of Obama?

"I have a lifetime of experience that I will bring to the White House. I know Senator McCain has a lifetime of experience to the White House. And Senator Obama has a speech he gave in 2002." -Hillary Clinton

==================

“I think that since we now know Sen. (John) McCain will be the nominee for the Republican Party, national security will be front and center in this election. We all know that. And I think it’s imperative that each of us be able to demonstrate we can cross the commander-in-chief threshold, I believe that I’ve done that. Certainly, Sen. McCain has done that and you’ll have to ask Sen. Obama with respect to his candidacy" - Hillary Clinton

===================

I think in addition to the questions about Reverend Wright and what he said and when he said it, and for whatever reason he might have said these things, there were so many different variations on the explanations that we heard.

And it is something that I think deserves further exploration because clearly, what we've got to figure out is how we're going to bring people together in a way that overcomes the anger, overcomes the divisiveness and whatever bitterness there may be out there. You know?

It is clear that, as leaders, we have a choice who we associate with and who we apparently give some kind of seal of approval to. And I think that it wasn't only the specific remarks but some of the relationships with Reverend Farrakhan, with giving the church bulletin over to the leader of Hamas, to put a message in.

You know, these are problems. And they raise questions in people's minds. And, so, this is a legitimate area, as everything is, when we run for office, for people to be exploring and trying to find answers. -Hillary Clinton

Clinton doesn't get trashed for the sake of Obama. Clinton gets trashed for the sake of Clinton. Those are 100% indefensible things to be directing at a fellow democratic candidate for the nomination, especially after it has already become clear, after MANY states have voted, that they are the frontrunner. Hamas... She tried to play guilt by 6 degrees of separation with another democratic candidate, on NATIONAL TELEVISION, with HAMAS. And she TWICE explicitly stated that the Republican nominee was preferable!

Don't give me this crap about how we're oh so unfairly mean to Clinton just so Obama can win. We're entirely fairly mean to Clinton because she's repeatedly acted like she's being fed her script from Karl Rove through a transmitter in her brain.

As for the offense at being "thrown a bone"... every discussion of VP candidates includes demographic analysis of their effects. I was just responding to that exact point regarding the "bubba vote", are we supposed to get outraged on their behalf as well if we select anyone who appeals to them because we want their vote? How dare we say we want a candidate because you think this or that demographic will be in favor?

How about you answer one simple question. Given the opportunity and the choice, do you want to see a woman on a winning presidential ticket or not? Do you want to see that precedent set or don't you? If the answer is yes, and Obama decides to make it happen, then you're damn right "what are you bitching about?". If it's about it not being Hillary, she decided that all by herself. You want to blame someone for it, she's right there.

[femmocrat]

10. 5. Not an exciting speaker.

Of course, Obama is probably exciting enough for both of them, but she really lacks charisma. JMHO

[Muttocracy]

60. I was certainly underwhelmed by her response to the State of the Union. nt

[AllentownJake]

11. My top choice

is General Clark because he's a Clinton guy who could be a single that we aren't going to throw them out of the party. Plus all the upsides and if something happened I believe he would be fit to be President.

Sebelius is my second choice for the woman's vote and as a Govenor in a GOP state I think she'd have something to bring. Also since she was a govenor she has executive experience if something bad happens.

The number 1 requirement is that the person needs to be able to be a good President.

[grantcart]

12. He needs to solidify the woman's vote as much or more than the Bubba vote

while she might not be able to deliver KS - It makes McCain spend a great deal of time in the midwest where he shouldn't have to. Obviously she would energize the professional women and soccer moms.

Obama could strengthen, and I believe he will, by announcing his key national security appointments ahead of time Sec of Defense, State, Ambassador to the UN and Nat Sec Adviser. Atleast one of those positions will be a Republican.

McCain will have to respond and it will force him to pick non Bush people. He is unlikely to get any Democrats to join except Lieberman and I can't see how that helps him.

I am not sold on Sebelius but we have a problem with Hillary's constituency that has to be addressed.

She would almost certainly force McCain to select Fiona as his running mate. I can't see how McCain can throw away the minority vote and the woman's vote and have any chance to compete.

[woolldog]

15. You don't think women are going to vote democratic anyway?

[grantcart]

26. Its a question of enthusiasm

but if McCain picks her we could have a problem




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carly_Fiorina

Cara Carleton "Carly" Fiorina (née Sneed; born September 6, 1954) is an American business executive, best known for her leadership of Hewlett-Packard (as chief executive officer from 1999 to 2005 and chairman of the board from 2000 to 2005. Fiorina is also a contributor on the Fox Business Network.<1>

[bigwillq]

13. She's too regional of a candidate.

I am not sure how many average Americans, and even average Democrats (so to speak) know who she is.
She's not a very powerful figure.
She didn't make the best impression when she gave the SOTU rebuttal.


And I agree with you on point # 1.

[crimsonblue]

17. speaking as a KANSAN...

Sebelius most definitely can help carry the state. She is the most popular democratic governor in some time here, and she has lured many former GOPers to the Democratic Party-- think Paul Morrison (or maybe not.. he resigned for sexual impropriety), and the lieutenant governor used to be the GOP state chair. on to the other talking points:

1. Military credentials/ foreign policy
No VP can bring credentials that surpasses Obama's. He has opposed the war from the beginning, and bringing on someone who supported the initial war (ahem, Webb) would be a liability. Plus, Webb is too far right on many issues, namely the PAA.

2. Not that well known
Neither was Obama 6 months ago, so what's your point?

3. Can't deliver state
She can and will.

4. Bubba Vote
WTF does this even mean? Seriously... keep the Clintons the hell as far away from the GE as possible.


People like to knock Sebelius for her "crappy" SOTU rebuttal.. I don't know what you were watching, but it was a helluva lot better than Dumnya's speech. And it played VERY well in the media in the state. Sebelius has vast executive experience, both private and government, and would be a great adviser to Obama (as the VP should be.. NO MORE Co-Presidencies, please!) Is Sebelius my first choice? No, I prefer Richardson. But I would be more than satisfied to have Sebelius as VP.

[woolldog]

33. whoa, looks like I hit a nerve.

1. experience

Many VP's can bring foreign policy/military credentials that surpass Obama. You have to realize that when McCain talks about foreign policy he will be doing so with the authority of someone who has been in the military and is perceived as having "expertise" on the issue. I know I know, it's silly. :eyes: But it is what it is. He will contrast his resume with Obama's on the issues. And McCain will represent his views as being "expert" opinions, being formed out of the crucible of his experience in the military as a POW and deep knowledge of foreign affairs, and that because of that they must be right.

It will be extremely helpful to have someone on the ticket that will be able to say "hey I'm a veteran and a war hero too. I've studied military affairs too, John, and you're wrong on this."

Webb did oppose the war, from what I know.

2. not that well known

My point is that having two people on the ticket new to the political scene doesn't help Obama. Part of the reason these issues about him being a Muslim and patriotism etc, have taken hold the way they have is because he isn't well known. It would be suicide to put another political unknown on the ticket. Putting a well known and respected national figure on the ticket would help with (1)the experience question and (2) it would allay some people's fears about not knowing enough about Obama and electing a relative unknown to the Presidency, to see someone familiar on the ticket.

3. can't deliver the state

As I noted, even if she does deliver the state, it will have limited significance. Kansas simply doesn't compare to the importance of Ohio, PA, or VA.

4. Bubba vote

I just mean blue collar dems who have shown an aversion to Obama. I'm not convinced they are so much pro-Clinton as they are anti-Obama. I think Hillary Clinton wouldn't really draw these voters like, say, a Jim Webb. But even she would be an improvement over Sebelius. It's unclear Sebelius could get those votes. Clinton has gotten them. For whatever reason, she's gotten them.

[crimsonblue]

37. This election is going to be a cakewalk..

McCain makes about 5 mistakes a week, and he will fully become the second coming of Bob Dole. The best thing to do is get a VP that can be President in 8 years. I don't like Webb's conservative tendencies, and Clinton is too vitriolic to help Obama. I think Richardson would be the best: he has ample foreign policy cred, he was former energy Sec, and a governor in a "swing state" to boot.

[NJSecularist]

62. Sibelius is not helping Obama carry Kansas.

Period.

[Auntie Bush]

18. She's not a very inspirational speaker and I doubt if she would

raise much money or be of much help in general.

[hokies4ever]

24. Yeah, she needs more energy in her speeches

But perhaps there are other reasons for choosing a V.P.

[OhioBlue]

19. She is from Ohio - her father was Governor

She can help with Ohio.

Not that she is my first choice, but I'm sure she is still plugged into things and can pull some votes in Ohio.

[hokies4ever]

22. Great point - especially if McCain chooses Romney

Since Romney's father was Governor of Michigan.

[mystieus]

32. Like Sebilus . We should not shape our vote around what republicans want

If there was a woman to be a Vice President, this is the one! She is the example of a strong woman without barking and pretending something other than self.

[woolldog]

35. See my post #33

You're trying to force a square peg into a round hole. Sebelius is wonderful I'm sure as a politician and a person. But she's not what an Obama ticket needs against McCain.

[JerseygirlCT]

20. I think that "national security" concern is pretty easily answered

McCain is supposedly awash in national security experience, right?

Who supports this war?

Who thinks it's dandy if we're there for 100 years?

Who is all on board with attacking Iran?

THIS is what that experience buys us.

I'll take intelligence from someone who hasn't spent a lifetime bathing in a military outlook on the world, thanks.

[riskpeace]

23. It's the narrative

Senator Obama's mother was a white woman from Kansas....
And Governor Sebelius is a white woman from Kansas....

[woolldog]

42. OMG,

that has Oedipal undertones.

I never thought of that

[AllentownJake]

43. If he picks an older male with foriegn policy experience

Its going to be he's searching for the father and mentor he never had.

The media narrative is going to be negative no matter who he picks.

[mmonk]

25. She's a white woman. That's how I look at it.

Where was Hillary's strength? If Obama/Clinton was a dream ticket to many then why not Sebelius? She's a Washington outsider than is congruent with the change theme and has "executive" experience.

[Hatchling]

30. If he wants a white woman on the ticket

it had better be Hillary. I would be really insulted if Obama thought Hillary and Sibelius were simply interchangeable.

If he won't/can't choose Hillary then I think someone with foreign policy experience would better suit. I like Joe Biden personally. Richardson would annoy me, confirming my suspicion that the only reason he changed camps was to get the VP slot.

[mmonk]

38. I don't think he thinks they are interchangeable.

She's outside Washington thus keeping his theme for change. Biden would be great but can we afford to be without him in the Senate? Maybe. Richardson works with his theme of diplomacy so I could be for that.

[MediaBabe]

39. One woman is as good as another.. Really?

Just to appease the females. Just to get the girl vote. That kind of attitude isn't going to unite anybody. Not the women who are can recite Hillary's qualifications for hours. Not the men who won't vote for a woman for anything.

Yeah, I'd be very insulted if Obama slapped the face of all women by naming a female VP choice just because of her gender.

[AllentownJake]

41. Relax

If he picks Govenor Sebelius it's because he feels she would work in his administration and she can take over the job if something happens to him. She's run a red state. No one is ready to be President I don't care how much experience you have. You have a suitcase that can end the world next to you at all times. However being in the top job in a GOP state is a very enticing prosepect for a VP.

The first qualification is can you be President and if he picks anyone who can't fit that bill than the media is going to call him on it.

I prefer Wesley Clark on those grounds but Sebelius is my second choice.

[mmonk]

44. Yes, by running a red state, she proves her mettle

in being able to govern with republicans and get things done which also parallels with the new kind of politics he's looking for in a VP spot. Hillary Clinton doesn't fit the new politics bill and change IMO.

[AllentownJake]

46. It would be a losing ticket

All the negatives he has with this Rev Wright thing compounded with all the negatives Hillary has.

There is something to be said about picking someone who isn't as well known. Of course they all have to be vetted very hard. However why pick a VP that already has 1200 pages of oppo research ready to go.

[mmonk]

47. Exactly. It's one reason I think she'd make a good choice.

[AllentownJake]

40. Hillary

would be a drag on the ticket. Hillary on the ticket you have all the attacks on Obama with the attacks on Hillary and you could just play videos of the two of them saying them about each other.

[hokies4ever]

27. Choosing a white woman from Kansas

will force the race-baiting media to race-bait on him having a white mother nonstop. :rofl:

[Orangepeel]

34. There's no way Obama would win Kansas without her, but I don't know that he couldn't with her

keeping in mind that she got elected statewide and Bob Barr will be in the race to siphon off some crazies.

[mystieus]

36. Kathleen Sebelius is a really smart and appealing person.

Sebelius embodies what a great female politician should have.

[sfam]

51. Its more than that - she has solid executive experience, Republicans like her and...

She doubles down on the change message. This is a good thing, not to mention she isn't from Washington. I don't know that foreign policy experience is really as much of a weakness as people are talking about. Bush had THE MOST EXPERIENCED national security team ever - look where this led us. There's something to the judgment thing.

[TBF]

48. I can't stand Hillary, but replacing her with Sebelius would be a big mistake - it would be

seen as trying to placate women at best - pandering at worst. He needs to find someone with military or serious international relations experience, and yes someone to help bring the "bubba" vote. Clark or Webb seem like good candidates.

[AllentownJake]

52. He needs to pick

the person he thinks would be the best President and would follow his goals if something ever happened to him and can help him get elected.

General Clark is my first pick Govenor Sebiluis is my second.

[woolldog]

57. 55 posts, 670 views, and no recs.

:cry:

[Gore1FL]

58. Well to answer those

1> she knows enough about what the depletion of a nation guard does to states. I am not clear as to why foreign policy is lacking in Obama or why military credentials matters considering who has run and who has lost the last four elections.

2> She is known well enough. She also has a number of months to become known.

3> She can help put the mid-west in play. KS borders MO, CO, and NE. NE could yield 2 electoral votes out of 5 due to the way theyor electors are distributed. It gives benefits in ND, SD, as well. Every place McCain has to campaign to keep,is a place he can't campaign to take.

4> How do you think a Dem won statewide in KS?

Frankly, she is a better Hillary than Hillary in a lot of ways--except she fits ideally with the 50 state strategy in play with the DNC and Obama. This election is about changing the map. even if it doesn't pick up everything red, it has the power to make permanent inroads.

[proud2BlibKansan]

59. I'll give you #1

2. She is the most popular Democratic governor in the country. She gave the Dem response to the SOTU. Yes she is well known.

3. The misconceptions about Kansas are frustrating. The upcoming election is the best chance we have had in my lifetime as a Kansan to turn this state blue. Republicans are switching to the Democratic party in droves here. Several high profile Republicans have switched. The nonsense with the state school board and evolution split the Republican party here. Democrats came out in larger numbers than Republicans on Super Tuesday. In my very red county, twice as many Democrats voted than Republicans. So yes, with our wonderful Democratic governor in the lead, we can indeed turn Kansas blue.

4. Kansas is full of Bubbas. And they LOVE Governor Sebelius.

[smalll]

64. Also, her last name is kind of long. Obama/Sebelius is a total of SEVEN full syllables.

He needs to pick someone with as "normal" a name he can find. A lot of people will see "Sebelius" and think, what is this, some old Roman Emperor or something? Even "well-educated" people will have problems with it, as it appears to be pronounced Seb-EE-lius, not Seb-AY-lius as with the composer.

At the same time, it would be better than General Zinni (for whom there has been a mini-groundswell of support.) Zinni sounds as out-of-nowhere alien as Obama. And the intials would be O.Z. -- opening the Dems up to a lot of jokes about the Wizard of Oz, "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" etc.