CNN Exit Polls: WV 65.12 - 31.9

[mohc]

Delegate breakdown should be close to 19-9 for Clinton

[islandmkl]

1. is 34 43?....

oh, it was 43 on 5.08.08....

[MattNC]

2. if it's 65-31

I'd be more than content with that actually.

[SoCalDem]

3. actually 31.9 is pretty good ... considering n/t

[Ichingcarpenter]

8. I called it a 63% yesterday I wonder if it will change

later on tonight? I hadn't seen any numbers up yet.

[PoliticalAmazon]

30. Bill Clinton said it would be 80-20. Wrong again, Bill. n/t

[Aloha Spirit]

32. I think it will, that Edwards will get 4-5%, so 63 for Clinton looks right to me!

[oviedodem]

4. Whoopdee freaking dooo... A whopping 10 delegates.

[writes3000]

7. I'm willing to congratulate Clinton on her decisive win.

It doesn't change the delegate race much but I'm sure it feels good for her and her supporters.

[PoliticalAmazon]

15. Me too, but I dread to see how McAuliff is going to spin this....

McAuliff reminds me of Karen Hughes during the 2000 GE. No matter WHAT Bush did, she would crow out "He hit a HOME RUN!!"

At one point, after Bush Jr had appeared at a debate or something, she went out to the attached press pool and told them that according to the media in that state, Bush had hit "a home run." The problem was this: the event hadn't been seen by the media in that state yet because of a time difference.

Whenever McAuliff starts his Spin-O-Rama, all I can think of is Karen Hughes pathetically crowing out "He hit a HOME RUN!" every time Bush did anything, including taking a dump.

[writes3000]

18. Here's the thing. No media pundit wants to look like an idiot...

So while they may entertain the notion of a Clinton comeback, their hearts won't be into it. It makes them look foolish. Terry M can't spin a new narrative out of this one. It's too late.

[PoliticalAmazon]

23. Hasn't McAuliff defiled the position of DNC chair?....

I was thinking today that, as much as Bill has defiled his own legacy, he has also defiled the standing of all past presidents to some degree.

Same with McAuliff. He's not just defiling hs own legacy, he's defiling to some extent all past DNC chairs' legacy.

[mohc]

10. Another 16 states and she will erase Obama's lead

Oh wait....

[thoughtcrime1984]

24. 16 West Virginia's?

There is but one.

[MadBadger]

5. For now, Obama would win 39% of the male vote.

[tekisui]

6. IF the exit poll math is accurate and IF the delegate breakdown accurate....

Obama nets +18 delegates for the week since NC.

[iamthebandfanman]

9. isnt that whats been expected? n/t

[MadBadger]

11. Actually, Obama only lost Catholic voters by 7

[Barrymores Ghost]

12. Good for Hillary. I hope this at least puts some coin back in her coffers. n/t

[LSparkle]

13. Jeepers, she got a NET GAIN OF 10 DELEGATES!

Big f***ing deal ...

[high density]

17. Yep MSNBC is live until 2am for 10 delegates

:crazy:

[Yael]

14. 19-9 is what I am coming up with as well

4-2 in each district (3)
5-2 in Pledged Addons
2-1 in PLEO

[mohc]

16. Yes

The downside would be if one district had Obama below 25% with the others bringing his average to 32%. In that case it would be 20-8 but that is fairly unlikely. It is even more unlikely that Obama could have taken a district over 42.3% to take another district and even if he did there would almost certainly be a district below 25% balancing it out.

[WeDidIt]

19. It's a ten delegate pickup

She needed this right after Super Tuesday instead of losing 12 in a row.

End of the day, this ends up being a +18 delegate week for Obama.

[Life Long Dem]

20. Compare it to these states

The races, so far, in terms of margins. Obama won them all except the two in italics and now it sounds like Clinton can add WV.

1. Virgin Islands (84.4%)

2. Idaho (64.4%)

3. Hawaii (52.6%)

4. District of Columbia (52.0%)

5. Alaska (50.6%)

6. Kansas (48.4%)

7. Washington (36.8%)

8. Georgia (36.2%)

9. Nebraska (35.4%)

10. Colorado (34.6%)

11. Minnesota (34.6%)

12. Dems Abroad (34.0%)

13. Illinois (32.8%)

14. South Carolina (29.1%)

15. Oklahoma (27.4%)

16. Arkansas (27.1%)

17. Maryland (25.8%)

18. North Dakota (25.2%)

19. Mississippi (25.0%)

20. Wyoming (23.8%)

21. Lousiana (23.8%)

22. Vermont (23.4%)

23. Maine (19.3%)

24. Utah (18.4%)

[DerekJ]

25. Put it in a thread by itself. n/t

[4_Legs_Good]

21. About exactly what was expected

A net loss of 10 delegates sucks, but it could be worse. We knew all along this would be a bad one for team Obama. Feels kinda like ripping off a scab.

Well, congrats to Team Clinton

Next week should be more fun for everyone! Today was kinda like I expect Mississippi was for the Clinton fans.

David

[PseudoIntellect]

22. Good, I was expecting 19-9 so he'd still be up by over 160 del's.

[Yukari Yakumo]

26. If it's 19-9...

Then Obama's magic number shrinks to 24.

All he would need is 24 more pledged delegates to clinch the majority of PDs.

[mohc]

29. I'm getting 26.5

He currently has 1591.5 (this includes the switch from MD). 1627 is the number needed to claim a majority. With 9 tonight Obama will move to 1600.5 and need 26.5 more to get a majority.

[Yukari Yakumo]

33. 1618 is what is needed to claim the majority.

Regardless, he'll cross the that line on the 20th.

The 20th will be the last day Clinton will be able to leave the race with any dignity intact.

[mohc]

38. 1627

There are 3253 pledged delegates. Half would be 1626.5, plus .5 to have 50% +1 makes 1627. Perhaps you meant the number guaranteed to have more delegates than Clinton, not the majority. Obama could lead in pledged delegates without having a majority because of Edwards 19 delegates. That drops the pool to 3234, 50% +1 would be 1617.5 (I'm guessing you rounded this up to 1618). So 1617.5 for a plurality or 1627 for a majority.

[Yael]

36. He picked up 3 pledged earlier today to add

2 in Ohio's certification and 1 pledged DC Al-Large (not super) switched.

[mohc]

40. Those are in the GP numbers already

The Ohio certification moved the initial net gain of 9 for Clinton to 7, but The GreenPapers had already moved to this estimate based on results as they updated. They have also already adjusted their numbers for the MD PLEO that switched today (not DC). 1591.5 is the latest count for Obama, plus 9 tonight.

[Seabiscuit]

37. What's with this "majority" stuff? It's irrelevant.

Short of 2025 "pledged" delegates, it's going to the Convention, unless someone drops out. And when it does, because it doesn't look like anyone's dropping out, ALL delegates, both "pledged" and "super" are free to make up or change their minds right up to the final vote. Sorry to disillusion you. But. That's. How. It. Works.

[Yael]

34. He picked up 3 pledged today (2 in OH and 1 in DC) along with the ~9 tonight

That is a net 12 pledged (no supers).

I have 1594.5 + 12 (1606.5) or 20.5 short

[Aloha Spirit]

27. I can't believe it was only 51% female. That's, like, not a question you can lie on. It could have

been a lot worse for O'Bama, methinks.

[MadBadger]

28. that number will probably increase

[Aloha Spirit]

31. 10% of her voters would vote McCain in the fall over her.

[Aloha Spirit]

35. 49% say most important candidate quality is "can bring change", interesting!

[Aloha Spirit]

39. Just want to point out that young people are polling at a higher voting rate than people over 30----

18-29 is 12% of the population in WV, and they are polled at 14%.
It's just a stupid exit poll, but the young people are seriously voting today.