Childers is going to win the Mississippi special election

[Mariotti]

With 51% of the votes counted, Childers, the Democrats, holds a 8% lead over his Republican opponent Davis.

This is, IMO, unsurmountable, and will be a big blow to Republicans, being a very conservative district and all.

[Yael]

1. Oh please, oh please, oh please!!!

This would make 3 seats grabbed up in the last, what 3 months?

:woohoo:

Go Childers!!!! :woohoo:

[roguevalley]

47. Russert says repugs are absolutely dying over the changes going on and the

losses they are taking. They are aghast and terrified. Good.

[SeattleGirl]

2. Wow! That's great news!

Been wondering what the result are, so thanks!

[K8-EEE]

3. God I hope you're right but

WAAAAY too early to count our chickens!

[Alhena]

14. Childers has big increases in his margin of victory in 2 key counties from last time

Yalobusha and Panola county were both basically tied last time, this time Childers beat Davis handily in both. I think it's pretty clear he's going to win.

[YDogg]

4. sweet

[MissWaverly]

5. sent a vote your way for the Greatest Page

Hoping that he makes it, Childers, go Childers go

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. This is more important than WV in many ways

this is TREND

[KingFlorez]

7. This would be a fantastic pickup

It was supposed to be a safe seat for the GOP, but it looks like it might swing. If this results in a win, it would be the second swing of a GOP seat in as many weeks.

[Barack_America]

8. I don't know.

I'm still watching DeSoto. Lots of votes left to be counted and breaking heavily for Davis.

[MonkeyFunk]

9. Where are you getting the numbers?

I'm looking at http://www.djournal.com/pages/election2008.asp

and it's 51/49 with about 35% reporting.

[DearAbby]

15. Link inside

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_county/MS_Page_0513.html?SITE=MSJADELN&SECTION=POLITICS

[MonkeyFunk]

55. Thanks

Excellent!

[Kittycat]

10. This is going to make the republicans SERIOUSLY rethink their gameplan

for this fall. No way can they tie Obama as a negative after this. It will be two loses in a row, with this tactic.

[dsc]

11. It depends on where the outstanding votes are

if they are in DeSoto we still might lose, but if they are elsewhere, we should win.

[RBInMaine]

12. The GOP will literally shit their pants over this if he wins. Can't wait for their spin if he does.

[NJSecularist]

13. Umm.. no.

There isn't even 50% of Desoto County precincts in, which is the GOP's biggest stronghold.

It's still way too early to call this.

[Ichingcarpenter]

49. Care to comment now!!!!!!

[NJSecularist]

51. It looked like Childers was going to win the district

but it was still way too early to call, when Davis's biggest stronghold hadn't even reported fully.

[Ichingcarpenter]

52. Bullshit he won........

This is a great win for the party

[NJSecularist]

54. When did I ever say it wasn't?

I'm celebrating..

[Yael]

56. I am terribly sorry for your loss

:eyes:

[John Q. Citizen]

16. Why IYHO is it insurmountable? Do you know the district and the precincts well enough to

be able to make that claim with any authority?

Or are you just glad the Dem is up by 8% and hope it holds?

I know I want Childers to win, very much, but I don't know anything about the district on a precincts basis to know if that will or won't hold.

My fingers are crossed and I'll keep watching. Being up is always preferable to being down.

[Seen the light]

17. It's not insurmountable at all from what I know

Just went through Barone's book and checked the counties....Davis still has a chance.

[Mariotti]

22. I've never seen a candidate blow a 8% lead with over half reporting

We'll see.

[cali]

18. I do so hope you're right, but who knows what strongholds for which

candidate are still out.

[thewiseguy]

19. Uh oh the lead is down to 2 points...

With 294 precincts reporting

[Mariotti]

20. My bad, the lead is now 2%

but Hey, CBS did worse calling Indiana for Hillary too early.

:evilgrin:

Plus Childers is goingto win anyway.

And heres the link, that I believe to be updated faster than Daily Kos and others.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_county/MS_Page_0513.html?SITE=MSJADELN&SECTION=POLITICS

[thewiseguy]

21. DeSoto is not all in yet

[jobycom]

23. You can't judge an election lead like that. That's how conspiracy theories get started.

If the majority of uncounted votes are in Republican districts, and the majority of counted votes are in Dem districts, the numbers will swing quickly when the rest of the votes come in. It's not like a NASCAR race, where a driver has to make up the distance to the lead in a set number of laps. It's more like a jigsaw puzzle, where you haven't even pulled half the pieces out of the box. The parts you've assembled may look blue, but the rest of the pieces could all be red.

[harrison]

24. I know Childers personally and he is a good guy

who has worked hard all his life. And while some disagree with some of his stands, Travis has spoken out against the war which is pretty courageous thing to do in the REDDEST state in the Union. He has campaigned on the theme that the average person is being left behind and they need some help. He has hammered on gas prices, the loss of jobs because of NAFTA, etc. If he wins, it will be a blueprint for other Southern Democratic politicians to follow. If a Dem can win here, then they can win anywhere. I think we are seeing the crumbling of the present incarnation of the Republican Party. People are voting with their pocketbooks and have basically ignored the race card played by the Republicans.

[JerseygirlCT]

25. Oh I hope you're right! nt

[Doityourself]

26. yes!

[thewiseguy]

27. Childers now leads by 4

Lowndes, Marshall, and Monroe are going big for Childers while DeSoto is going big for the rethug.

[kevinbgoode]

28. OMG....the Pukes threw a bunch of money in there...and sent

practically every tarnished "star" they had to help them hold this seat. They also mounted a fear-and-smear campaign on their usual massive scale. . .if it ain't workin' in Mississippi, the Pukes are gonna be wiped out in the fall election all over the country.

[thewiseguy]

29. 50-50 now with almost all DeSoto in

[mohc]

30. Most of the outstanding precints favor Childers

113 of the remaining 137 precincts come from these counties
Calhoun 54-39 for Childers on 4/22
Clay 65-29
Itawamba 59-36
Pontotoc 51-43
Prentiss 85-13
Tate 31-65

[PermanentRevolution]

33. Relative populations?

Is Tate bigger, smaller, or about the same population as Prentiss?

[mohc]

43. Total votes from 4/22

Calhoun: 1278
Clay: 2458
Itawamba: 2003
Pontotoc: 2601
Prentiss: 4881
Tate: 2014

[Colin D Cops]

35. I've heard that one before

And I hope that's the case, but I remember in Texas, I was hoping Obama would catch up to hillary because reportedly the remaining counties were urban, Obama-type of counties, and he gained no ground.

[Thrill]

31. Wow now look at it.

[Zynx]

32. I really think Obama has little to nothing to do with this one.

Childers is a strong candidate.

[Thrill]

36. Well they ran ads talking about Obama against Childers

[Zynx]

37. As I said, I don't think he has anything to do with it.

Evidence is that this race didn't budge since the primary.

[harrison]

39. Travis is a strong candidate who has not forgotten

the struggles he had growing up. He has great empathy for people. He has often said that his family would not have made it without government assistance in some form. He is sort of like an old FDR Democrat and has reunited the old coalition of working class folks, somehow playing off the race card which normally divides down here. Again, I would repeat that Travis has come out against the war in Mississippi. That was a huge risk to take and a friend of his said to me that Travis simply did it on principle. He didn't believe in it, felt as if we were misled. And has said so.

[ossman]

34. Ummmm..... 50/50 and the GOP base area isnt done reporting

[mohc]

38. There are more outstanding Democratic precints than GOP

See my post upthread.

[Zynx]

41. Desoto is in.

That's the biggest of the GOP areas.

[Barack_America]

40. This is going to be close. Bet those "Operation Chaos" jackasses are cursing Limbaugh now.

Lol, lol and lol.

:rofl:

[Ichingcarpenter]

42. He Won....... Some need to apologize on this thread

[Barack_America]

44. Sweet! Thanks Rush!

Really thought this whole "Operation Chaos" thing through, didn't you. King of the Morans.

[mohc]

45. Honestly

Why would anyone have been down on a possible CD pickup?

[Overseas]

46. Si Se Puedes !! /nt

[Occam Bandage]

48. And AP declared it. Given how they tried calling Childers an "Obama liberal," this is a good sign.

[Stop Cornyn]

50. K & R

[New Dawn]

53. K&R