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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:03 PM
Original message
My first post in GDP . . .
. . . Please read the whole 'ball 'o wax' and try to be constructive in your assessment and ultimate reply.

So, here is is --->> How can Obama win the general election against McCain in November? In spite of the fact that the Democrat/Republican divide in the United States breaks out at a virtual 50/50 tie, the disparity breaks out somewhat differently racially. According to the 2006 U.S. Census Bureau*, the United States consists of 80.1% white persons and 12.8% black persons. Obama has been winning 92% of the black vote, but that is 92% of 12.8% of the population at most. Obama won my state of Utah, but come November, Utah will go to the Republicans. That's a fact. So, how does this work? I keep hearing about "the math." Could someone please 'splain it to me? Personally, I believe that Obama is the wrong candidate at the wrong time. I don't believe he can win against McCain in November. I DO believe that Hillary Clinton CAN win against McCain in November. So why would the so called 'Super Delegates' hand this nomination to Obama when the numbers are so egregiously stacked against him? Try to be kind with your replies. Math was never my strong suit. Can anyone explain how Obama can win in November when the United States is over 80% white, considering the racial bent of these elections so far? Oh, and another thing - more that 50% of the United States if female. As an aside, here in Utah, people believe that Obama is a Communist. That is a new one on me, but I heard it first hand this past Saturday night while talking politics to the unwashed masses at the local watering holes. Not only aren't they voting for Obama, but they actually prefer McCain over Hillary. This in typically Democrat strongholds like gay bars. Seriously, I'll don my flamesuit and await your thoughtful replies. This presidential race has been reduced to one of racial divide. That's unfortunate but true. So, from a strictly racial perspective, of the 12.8% black populace, a disproportionate number of those people (mostly males) are in prison. Don't kill the messenger, I'm only stating facts. Racially speaking, the percentage of blacks to whites in America's prisons is ridiculously slanted toward blacks. (A topic for a completely separate discussion on another day.) Something like 44% to 35%. "Although blacks account for only 12 percent of the U.S. population, 44 percent of all prisoners in the United States are black"** Like I said, math is not my strong suit but I can't help but wonder how this will all shake out in November. Everyone knows that prisoners can't vote. A salient point to be sure. So that decreases Obama's 12.8% of the population somewhat. Then, let's not forget the illegal suppression of the black vote and Democrat vote in general, through 'electronic voting shenanigans (Diebold),' and other dirty tricks politicking... I'll stop with my soliloquy, but I would appreciate a 'well though out' reply, based on hard facts and not emotion... Please try not to attack; just spell it out for me. What is the plan? How can he win against McCain in a situation where he is so clearly outnumbered by people 'not like him?' - considering the flavor this campaign has taken; and don't try to blame any racial division on Hillary. I've been a member of Democratic Underground, or most recently, 'Obama Underground', since 2001. Obama supporters didn't stay home today in West Virginia because "Obama didn't campaign there"; Obama supporters are too passionate for that. They were just plain and simply outnumbered; as they will be again in November... "Super Delegates should pick the winner"... How does Obama possibly fill that bill? Please keep in mind that the role of president is not the only position at stake. Let's not forget the importance of the role of Congress in all of this. Not only do we as Democrats need to win the presidential election but we also need to hold on to and increase our numbers in the House and Senate . . .

Be kind. ~TYY

*http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html
**http://www.hrw.org/backgrounder/usa/incarceration/

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texastoast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:07 PM
Response to Original message
1. I can't read it
Need some paragraphing.
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tabatha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:07 PM
Response to Original message
2. Try using paragraphs.
It is unreadable.
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Lautremont Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:07 PM
Response to Original message
3. I'm sorry. I can't answer you.
I'm too busy thinking about all those McCain voters sitting in Utah gay bars to answer your question of why a white person might possibly vote for a black one, or a woman for a man.
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BlueJac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:08 PM
Response to Original message
4. Are you from WV?
Sorry!
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:09 PM
Response to Original message
5. Paragraph breaks are your friend. Your post is unreadable.
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patrice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:09 PM
Response to Original message
6. no thanks
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:10 PM
Response to Original message
7. I gave up four words into it
Your formatting hurts my eyes.
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bobbert Donating Member (548 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:11 PM
Response to Original message
8. I made it about 1/3 of the way in
Edited on Tue May-13-08 09:11 PM by bobbert
Then I realized you're a racist and a paragraph-hater

edit: I only stopped because I have a massive headache from the lack of formatting
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Hansel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:12 PM
Original message
Easy. Obama has twice as many votes as McCain right now.
And Clinton has twice as many votes as McCain. So the Democrats have 2/3's of the votes cast so far.

Either one of them would trounce McCain in the general. Since Obama will be the only one of the 2 in the general, Obama will be the one to do the trouncing.
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:42 AM
Response to Original message
53. .
Thanks Hansel. Your math makes sense. I'm not convinced that Obama can win in the general, but I do appreciate your reply.

TYY :hi:
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A-Schwarzenegger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:12 PM
Response to Original message
9. What a whole lot of words to say "Whites wont vote for Obama."
:*
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texastoast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:15 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. If that is what the OP wrote
Wrong.
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A-Schwarzenegger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:17 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. That's my synopsis. I dozed off halfway through.
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meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:15 PM
Response to Original message
11. translation: "obama cant win because he's black"
Edited on Tue May-13-08 09:16 PM by meow mix
you need to learn how to shorten your posts i usually condense to 3 sentences no matter what.

oh and you post was racist bullshit,
and it was the same one made 100000000 times by hillary supporters.

major yawn material.

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The River Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
13. Paragraphs are the Least of It.
Try using facts; only 35% of voters identify as being "Republican".

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PermanentRevolution Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:18 PM
Response to Original message
14. Here... EYE-FRIENDLY REPOST
...Please read the whole 'ball 'o wax' and try to be constructive in your assessment and ultimate reply.

So, here is is --->>

How can Obama win the general election against McCain in November?

In spite of the fact that the Democrat/Republican divide in the United States breaks out at a virtual 50/50 tie, the disparity breaks out somewhat differently racially. According to the 2006 U.S. Census Bureau*, the United States consists of 80.1% white persons and 12.8% black persons. Obama has been winning 92% of the black vote, but that is 92% of 12.8% of the population at most. Obama won my state of Utah, but come November, Utah will go to the Republicans. That's a fact.

So, how does this work? I keep hearing about "the math." Could someone please 'splain it to me? Personally, I believe that Obama is the wrong candidate at the wrong time. I don't believe he can win against McCain in November. I DO believe that Hillary Clinton CAN win against McCain in November. So why would the so called 'Super Delegates' hand this nomination to Obama when the numbers are so egregiously stacked against him?

Try to be kind with your replies. Math was never my strong suit. Can anyone explain how Obama can win in November when the United States is over 80% white, considering the racial bent of these elections so far? Oh, and another thing - more that 50% of the United States is female.

As an aside, here in Utah, people believe that Obama is a Communist. That is a new one on me, but I heard it first hand this past Saturday night while talking politics to the unwashed masses at the local watering holes. Not only aren't they voting for Obama, but they actually prefer McCain over Hillary. This in typically Democrat strongholds like gay bars. Seriously, I'll don my flamesuit and await your thoughtful replies.

This presidential race has been reduced to one of racial divide. That's unfortunate but true. So, from a strictly racial perspective, of the 12.8% black populace, a disproportionate number of those people (mostly males) are in prison. Don't kill the messenger, I'm only stating facts. Racially speaking, the percentage of blacks to whites in America's prisons is ridiculously slanted toward blacks. (A topic for a completely separate discussion on another day.) Something like 44% to 35%. "Although blacks account for only 12 percent of the U.S. population, 44 percent of all prisoners in the United States are black"**

Like I said, math is not my strong suit but I can't help but wonder how this will all shake out in November. Everyone knows that prisoners can't vote. A salient point to be sure. So that decreases Obama's 12.8% of the population somewhat. Then, let's not forget the illegal suppression of the black vote and Democrat vote in general, through 'electronic voting shenanigans (Diebold),' and other dirty tricks politicking...

I'll stop with my soliloquy, but I would appreciate a 'well though out' reply, based on hard facts and not emotion... Please try not to attack; just spell it out for me. What is the plan? How can he win against McCain in a situation where he is so clearly outnumbered by people 'not like him?' - considering the flavor this campaign has taken; and don't try to blame any racial division on Hillary. I've been a member of Democratic Underground, or most recently, 'Obama Underground', since 2001.

Obama supporters didn't stay home today in West Virginia because "Obama didn't campaign there"; Obama supporters are too passionate for that. They were just plain and simply outnumbered; as they will be again in November...

"Super Delegates should pick the winner"... How does Obama possibly fill that bill? Please keep in mind that the role of president is not the only position at stake. Let's not forget the importance of the role of Congress in all of this. Not only do we as Democrats need to win the presidential election but we also need to hold on to and increase our numbers in the House and Senate...

Be kind. ~TYY

*http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html
**http://www.hrw.org/backgrounder/usa/incarceration/

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A-Schwarzenegger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:22 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. woops, wrong place...
Edited on Tue May-13-08 09:22 PM by A-Schwarzenegger
:*
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 10:12 PM
Response to Reply #14
29. Thank you . . .
. . . Anyone who chooses not to read my post because of (lack of) formatting, doesn't want to read it anyway. All the paragraph formatting in the world won't inspire a thoughtful reply, but at least they'll have no excuse now. We'll see . . .

Thanks for trying. I doubt it'll make a difference . . . :shrug:

~TYY
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LiberalAndProud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #29
36. That's not snark TeeYiYi
Edited on Tue May-13-08 11:26 PM by LiberalAndProud
It was hard to read. I got halfway through it the first time. Really.

Utah will vote for McCain in November. Yes. No matter who we nominate that will be the case. You are choosing the ignore the many non-black voters who have voted for Obama (and some of them are female). I happen to believe that McCain is a far less formidable opponent than Hillary, dispite the 527s and the whispering campaigns and the political shills who masquerade as fundamentalist religious leaders. My belief that he can beat McCain is based largely in the fact that he will win against Clinton.

--edited to add

I also believe that Clinton WILL keep her word and campaign for the eventual nominee. And I absolutely believe that will make a difference.
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #36
42. .
Thank you for trying to explain. I'm still not sure I see it but I do appreciate the measured, thoughtful response. I agree that Clinton will keep her word.

TYY
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PermanentRevolution Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #29
45. You's is welcome.
You're probably right, it may not make a difference. But in my opinion, you might as well make an effort to make posts as easy-to-read as possible. It does give the grammar/spelling/punctuation brigade less to complain about...

As to the post itself, I don't wholly agree with you, though you raise some valid concerns. The black vote is not a large percentage of the whole in the general election, so of course Obama has to pick up a sizable percentage of the white vote as well. To date, he's struggled with this in the primaries. The problem comes from attributing his primary numbers as an indicator of his strength (or lack of it) in the general election. Just because white Democrats are opting for Hillary over Obama doesn't indicate that those same Democrats would refuse to support him in the general election. It means that, given the choice, they'd prefer Hillary. And it can't be used as a valid determination of anything else. Many of us have voted in primaries for candidates who don't receive the nomination. But come November, we've still gone all-out for the nominee, despite our initial leanings. We have no reason to believe things will be significantly different this time around.

In essence, as with all elections, the key will be relative turnout. Whichever side gets more voters to the polls will win, regardless of candidate. It helps that the traditional Republican base is apathetic towards McCain, but it's true that Obama's candidacy may bring the kind of voters who despise the thought of a black president out in force. However, I believe Hillary to be just as energizing a figure for the GOP base, so I disagree that she would have been a surer choice to defeat McCain. The Clintons were absolutely demonized by the right for all of Bill Clinton's presidency. If anything, Hillary was hated more than Bill was, and I don't see that attitude going away.

Honestly, ever since McCain got the nomination, I've been certain that this will be far, far closer than a lot of people on here believe, in both sides. It won't be the McCain blowout that the gloom-and-doom posters fear, but it won't be the Obama blowout that some expect. McCain and Obama have relatively the same appeal to independent and swing voters, as both are generally perceived as moderates to average voters (NOT to DUers or Freepers, obviously, but neither site really represents the average voter terribly accurately, IMO.) So conventional wisdom holds that this election will be decided by energizing the base, and frankly, I think it's almost even either way. I'm predicting another 50/50 split, or close to it.

That's using conventional wisdom. In this particular election, conventional wisdom may be invalid. This may be one of those moments that defies all logic, a spontaneous realignment of political opinion in general. It all depends on how sick the average voter is of the current vicious cycle - one party wins, makes life hell for the other party until the pendulum swings again, and then reaps the same treatment until the next electoral shift. The negativity, the divisiveness, the vitriol. Obama has the potential to challenge that with his message of a new kind of politics, and his somewhat meteoric rise indicates that there may be a real resonance among the electorate for his style of politics. He may be able to command a blowout, based solely on some fiery rhetoric and a promise of a better future. And I think that's the gamble the Democratic party leadership is making. It's a big gamble, and only time will tell if it pays off.

But if it doesn't, I'll still feel just as I do now - that he had as good, if not better, a chance of winning as Hillary did.
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bhikkhu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:54 PM
Response to Reply #14
46. A further simplification
Q: How can Obama win the general election against McCain in November?

A: By winning the most electoral votes. Look at http://electoral-vote.com/ for current projections, but be warned - it varies wildly from one day to another.



Q; "Super Delegates should pick the winner"... How does Obama possibly fill that bill?

A: First by winning the most delegates, then by winning the popular vote, then by winning the support of the constituencies that most SD's are committed to represent.

I hope this helps.
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A-Schwarzenegger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:23 PM
Response to Original message
16. Are there a lot of Republican gay bars in Utah?
"As an aside, here in Utah, people believe that Obama is a Communist. That is a new one on me, but I heard it first hand this past Saturday night while talking politics to the unwashed masses at the local watering holes. Not only aren't they voting for Obama, but they actually prefer McCain over Hillary. This in typically Democrat strongholds like gay bars."
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #16
27. No. Not to my knowledge anyway. . .
. . . That's what made it so surprising. I assumed that if they weren't voting for Obama, then they were surely voting for Hillary. I'd never heard the "Obama is a Communist" meme. Maybe I ran in to a Log Cabin Republican, but seriously, McCain over Obama OR Hillary? Who woulda' thunk it?... I would have guessed that all gay bars and their patrons voted Democrat by default.

TYY :shrug:
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kwenu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:25 PM
Response to Original message
17. You can now return to your silent status. This post was stupid.
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jbm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:29 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. care to elaborate?..n/t
,
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kwenu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:45 PM
Response to Reply #19
22. If you need elaboration on that crap you're hopeless.
Edited on Tue May-13-08 09:46 PM by kwenu
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jbm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:28 PM
Response to Original message
18. I didn't have any trouble reading it..
and yours is the math that matters. This has been my argument all along, although I never spelled it out as well as you did.

I think the Obama people don't see it that way, partly because some honestly don't have enough experience with the election process to really grasp how much different the GE is from the primary. The rest of them just want Obama so badly that they've traded reason for belief in miracles.

The only people that I struggle to forgive in this whole mess are the super delegates who have gone for Obama. I have a friend who is deeply involved in the election process, and we have discussed this issue many times. His theory is that in many cases they're trapped. If public perception gives Obama an edge, it's tricky to dispute that. There's other reasons too. I'd like to believe that all our elected officials are politically aware, but sometimes when you meet them, you have to wonder how they ever got elected. I also wonder if the Kennedy/Clinton thing isn't Ted and Bill having a pissing contest.

Your post is right on target, but unfortunately, it probably won't change any minds. If disputes could be solved simply by explaining things rationally, the world would be a totally different place. I do appreciate all the work you did though!
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:15 PM
Response to Reply #18
34. .
Thank you. Yours was one of two, maybe three measured and thoughtful replies out of almost 30. The first 12 or so replies devolved into the typical Obama blind supporter circle jerk. One poster refuses to read my comments 'because of formatting' and before you know it, eleven more posters pat each other on the back with an additional gratuitous reach around for good measure. I was surprised and disappointed to see some "paragraphs are your friend" posts made by people I used to respect from the Democratic Underground of old. Oh well . . .

Thanks again for daring to stand against the tide and attempting to answer and defend my queries.

TYY
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Tarheel_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:21 AM
Response to Reply #34
51. talk about a circle jerk...
:puke:
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Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:31 PM
Response to Original message
20. If the House races are any indication, either Dem should do fine in the GE
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last1standing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:32 PM
Response to Original message
21. As politely as I can...
You're using statistics to show that white people outnumber black people but then you quickly veer into opinion to suggest that those white people won't vote for a black person. From there you venture into personal examples that have absolutely no bearing on fact whatsoever.

I'd suggest you look deep into yourself and what you believe and try to represent your concept in a less prejudiced manner. I'm hoping I didn't get a fair assessment of your character from this post.
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Tinksrival Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:50 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. Perfect reply!
Thanks for making it.
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DearAbby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:48 PM
Response to Original message
23. Cut the shit...Obama cant win because he is black...
for those who got a massive headache trying to read that post...typical bullshit. not worth commenting.
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boston bean Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:51 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. but according to most O supporters, O lost WV because of racism. nt
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DearAbby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #25
28. that is true....but WV hardly meant much in regards
Edited on Tue May-13-08 10:13 PM by DearAbby
to the race, Clinton gained very little from her win tonight. I doubt Clinton could win WV in the GE...This would have been the perfect opportunity for Clinton to withdraw from the race with DIGNITY, and GRACE.

That being said, Since Obama is leading the primary, shows he is electable. I dont believe the entire country is filled with racists.
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RainDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 09:56 PM
Response to Original message
26. Obama doesn't just appeal to blacks. wtf? you think that's his only base?
he's winning with votes from whites, blacks, men, women. I'm a white woman and I support Obama.

Your post is uninformed about voting patterns. In West VA, Obama won the WHITE MALE educated vote.

You are in Utah. One of the most conservative states in the U.S. I'm not surprised ppl say Obama is a communist. The level of stupidity in this nation is astonishing. anything left of Attila the Hun is a commie for some.

My state may be in play for the first time in forever and 87% of ALL groups voted for Obama. Hillary will bring out the nutcase right to vote against her. She cannot win on that argument.

We will have to work to get out the vote among those who have felt so disenfranchised by the right wing trend in this nation that they haven't even bothered to vote.
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 10:48 PM
Response to Reply #26
30. I have a question . . .
Obama won almost 60% of the Democratic primary vote in Utah. Mitt Romney won at least 90% of the Republican primary vote in Utah. McCain won around 5%...

Question: . . . Do you believe that Obama will win Utah, or any other traditionally red state in November?

TYY
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NanceGreggs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:08 PM
Response to Original message
31. Are you actually an ignorant rascist in real life?
Or do you just play one on the internetz?
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:21 PM
Response to Reply #31
37. You caught me Nanceey. You're on to me.
TYY
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:09 PM
Response to Original message
32. This line caught my eye "This in typically Democrat strongholds like gay bars."
I was actually giving the poster the benefit of the doubt until then...
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:17 PM
Response to Reply #32
35. How did that change your opinion?
TYY
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #35
43. Well, Democrats typically would say "Democratic strongholds", not "Democrat strongholds".
Substituting "Democrat" for the proper "Democratic" is something that Rush Limbaugh prides himself on.

...but that's just nomenclature.


Where did you get the idea that a "gay bar" was a "Democrat(ic) stronghold"? That's akin to suggesting that "straight bars" are "Republican strongholds". Being gay doesn't determine one's political affiliation...and there are plenty of gay Republicans (though I have no idea why).
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 01:12 AM
Response to Reply #43
57. Actually . . .
. . . in my experience, being gay does usually determine one's political affiliation. Log Cabin Republicans claim to represent 25% of the gay vote but I believe that figure to be closer to 10%. Another thing... If a person from Utah goes to bars, they are more than likely a Democrat. Like I said, that probably only applies to Utah.

TYY
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akbacchus_BC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:14 PM
Response to Original message
33. Your first post has a big FAIL. Try using some paragraphs. Stupid post! n/t
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amelia Donating Member (261 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:21 PM
Response to Original message
38. Good post and good questions that the BO people will refuse to answer. BO won't win the GE.
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Tarheel_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #38
39. I'm not at all surprised that you agree with that horrendous o.p.
:eyes:
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bhikkhu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:01 AM
Response to Reply #38
48. A more thorough simplification and answer
Edited on Wed May-14-08 12:05 AM by bhikkhu
Q: How can Obama win the general election against McCain in November?

A: By winning the most electoral votes. Look at http://electoral-vote.com/ for current projections, but be warned - it varies wildly from one day to another.

(* Point: In spite of the fact that the Democrat/Republican divide in the United States breaks out at a virtual 50/50 tie, the disparity breaks out somewhat differently racially. According to the 2006 U.S. Census Bureau*, the United States consists of 80.1% white persons and 12.8% black persons. Obama has been winning 92% of the black vote, but that is 92% of 12.8% of the population at most. Obama won my state of Utah, but come November, Utah will go to the Republicans. That's a fact.

* Rebuttal: 92% of a demographic isn't bad. It reduces the percentage he needs of other demographics. And sorry to hear about Utah.)

Q: So, how does this work? I keep hearing about "the math." Could someone please 'splain it to me? Personally, I believe that Obama is the wrong candidate at the wrong time. I don't believe he can win against McCain in November. I DO believe that Hillary Clinton CAN win against McCain in November.

A: The Democratic Party selects its presidential candidate by a series of primaries and/or caucuses in each state. Delegates are awarded to candidates according to the rules of each state party, and generally proportional to their popular support. Obama has won a sufficient number of delegates to more or less guarantees his nomination, according to the rules. As for how he can win against McCain, that is answered above.

Q: So why would the so called 'Super Delegates' hand this nomination to Obama when the numbers are so egregiously stacked against him?

A: Because he will have a majority of delegates sufficient to make him our nominee. SD's are mostly elected officials with constituencies to represent; the majority of constituencies have chosen Obama as their nominee.

Q: Can anyone explain how Obama can win in November when the United States is over 80% white, considering the racial bent of these elections so far? Oh, and another thing - more that 50% of the United States is female.

A: Sometimes white people vote for candidates who aren't white. Sometimes women vote for candidates who aren't women.

( * Aside: Here in Utah, people believe that Obama is a Communist. That is a new one on me, but I heard it first hand this past Saturday night while talking politics to the unwashed masses at the local watering holes. Not only aren't they voting for Obama, but they actually prefer McCain over Hillary. This in typically Democrat strongholds like gay bars. Seriously, I'll don my flamesuit and await your thoughtful replies.

* Rebuttal: Ummm...I don't think most people worry about communism much anymore. Perhaps Utah is different - particularly if its gay bars are also its Democratic strongholds.)

(* Point: This presidential race has been reduced to one of racial divide. That's unfortunate but true. So, from a strictly racial perspective, of the 12.8% black populace, a disproportionate number of those people (mostly males) are in prison. Don't kill the messenger, I'm only stating facts. Racially speaking, the percentage of blacks to whites in America's prisons is ridiculously slanted toward blacks. (A topic for a completely separate discussion on another day.) Something like 44% to 35%. "Although blacks account for only 12 percent of the U.S. population, 44 percent of all prisoners in the United States are black"**

* Rebuttal: Prisoners don't get to vote. So if your point is that most blacks vote for Obama and most blacks are in prison...I can see how that would be a disadvantage. I think it can be overcome by the popular support of the non-imprisoned. The primaries are a good example. )

(snip)

Q: "Super Delegates should pick the winner"... How does Obama possibly fill that bill?

A: First, by winning the most delegates, then by winning the popular vote, then by winning the support of the majority of the constituencies that SD's are committed to represent.

I hope this helps.
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:38 AM
Response to Reply #48
52. .
Thank you bhikkhu, for taking the time to reply to my questions in such a thoughtful and itemized manner. Your formatting is impeccable! :hi:

I agree with you about Utah. It is unfortunate on so many levels. And yes, it will go to McCain in November. So will most, if not all of the other red states.

I was pretty thrown off by the Communism comment, but again. this is Utah. I was so surprised, in fact, that I Googled 'Obama is a Communist' when I got home just to see where this guy was coming from. I was surprised to see that the history of this particular line of thinking is pretty extensive.

My main concern is the popular vote in the general election in November. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens. I'm not ready for four more years of Republican rule, but I fear that it's out of my hands at this point.

Thanks again bhikkhu.

TYY

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bhikkhu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 01:12 AM
Response to Reply #52
58. So we share concerns...but the primary hasn't really told us much about the GE
the electoral-vote.com site is a good one that was up and running for Bush/Kerry in 2004. It was a terrible ordeal how the numbers went back and forth from one day or one week to the next.

I imagine the same in this election, but one thing we have seen is that Obama can positively turn out the vote, while enthusiasm for McCain is questionable even among repugs. Another trend is the self-identification of more voters as dems and less as repugs, as a 8 years of * takes its toll. There is much to be seen, and I for one am looking forward to it.
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 02:57 AM
Response to Reply #58
61. Unfortunately, I think the primaries have told us plenty . . .
Obama's campaign supporters have been antagonizing and effectively dismissing white voters in general for far too long. I don't believe that Obama is necessarily at fault for this vitriolic attitude but his supporters have been extremely divisive toward supporters of both Clinton and McCain.

I don't recall this campaign ever being about race until Obama's supporters made it that way. It was a mistake and may come back to bite Obama in November. That's why I posted my concerns in the first place. If this campaign hadn't devolved into one of escalating racial divisiveness, I wouldn't be concerned about Obama's ability to win in the Fall. Unfortunately, that ship has sailed and middle class whites and women have been marginalized by Obama's campaign via his supporters.

It is my opinion that Obama is going to have to take the focus on race and class out of his campaign equation to win. He needs to rein in his supporters if he's to have any chance of patching the damage done through the blatant ageism, racism and sexism that his supporters have inflicted.

My thought is that most of the red states are predominately white. Since the red states are the ones that Obama has been winning in the primaries, I don't see how he can swing any of those states to blue unless his campaign stops marginalizing and offending white voters, female voters and older voters.

The tone of this campaign to date has been increasingly and surprisingly rude. I don't see how this approach is going to work to win against McCain in the general election. Maybe that's just been the primaries and possibly it's only reflective of this particular message board, but somehow I don't think so. Look at what happened in West Virginia today.

I agree with you, bhikkhu, there is much to be seen but I'm afraid it's going to get complicated.

TYY

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eridani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:51 AM
Response to Reply #48
55. There is one really serious Communist threat remaining
If you aren't careful when visiting ex-Soviet client states, you just might get crushed under a statue of Lenin being toppled by a crowd of Latvians wearing Guess jeans.
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #38
49. .
Thanks amelia. Tough crowd in here. My first post in GDP and definitely my last. I don't have the intestinal fortitude nor the patience for it.

I appreciate your kind and thoughtful reply.

TYY
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eridani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:47 AM
Response to Reply #38
54. Clinton would? Is that because voters too racist to vote for a black man-
--magically quit being mysogynists as well?
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Tarheel_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:30 PM
Response to Original message
40. Is it too late for you to edit that crap? Where the hell did you go to school?
Edited on Tue May-13-08 11:33 PM by Tarheel_Dem
As far as Obama winning, I think with the entrance of Bob Barr into the race, we'll see a perfect storm come together, like we did in '92. Do you remember '92? The three way race? Bill Clinton owes his first presidency to Ross Perot.
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Hutzpa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #40
41. lol!!

:rofl:
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LiberalAndProud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #40
44. And his second to Bob Dole.
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TeeYiYi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:55 PM
Response to Reply #40
47. Feel free to attack me rather than answer my questions. . .
. . . Would it help if I post my picture so that you can further deflect from the issue at hand by commenting on my looks? Maybe I could throw you a few tantalizing bones so that you won't have to hurt yourself by giving my post any serious thought. . .

TYY

PS--->> So you edited your post. Congratulations. Bob Barr is the answer? I hope you're right. Did you know that Ralph Nader is jumping in again?
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Tarheel_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #47
50. Your post was summed up by previous posters. It made me dizzy...
but the gist was whites won't vote for a black man. And we hear this story after each Clinton win. Doesn't change the dynamics of this race at all. We didn't win WV in '00 or '04, even though "technically", Gore & Kerry really did win. You guys make a huge deal about Obama and white vote, but try winning a national election with no black participation, everything down ticket loses. SD's know this, and they're trying to hold on to their own seats; they'll do the right thing...bank on it.

You may have some valid points in your o.p., but I'm damned if I'm gonna try to read it all. I mean, afterall, writing is a skill that should invite the reader to sit back, relax, and absorb the written word. Yours fails on several counts.

For evidence of an appealing & well written opinion piece, try this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5944534

Now that's good writing.
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Lady-Damai Donating Member (756 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:54 AM
Response to Original message
56. So, how did Obama get so far by only black voters and white guilt?
:popcorn:
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Lilith Velkor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 02:03 AM
Response to Reply #56
59. What works in primaries doesn't always work in generals.
:silly:
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datopbanana Donating Member (938 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 02:14 AM
Response to Original message
60. P
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