Examining who "won" the swing states, using Chuck Todd's map

[sfam]

The theme of Hillary's speech tonight was that she has "won the swing states" so she would be the strongest candidate in November. She delivers this message as if its a stunningly clear difference between the two candidates. Interestingly, MSNBC's Chuck Todd put up a map of what he saw the states that would be in play in November. In all, he listed 21 states as potential targets for both the Dems and Republicans. Here's the breakdown of who won those states, along with their election value in the GE:


OBAMA won 12 states, for a total of 115 electoral votes (assuming he wins Oregon):

Colorado - 9
Georgia - 15
Iowa - 7
Louisiana - 9
Minnesota - 10
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
North Carolina - 15
Oregon - 7
Montana - 3
Virginia - 13
Wisconsin - 10


HILLARY won 9 states for a total of 120 electoral votes (assuming we give her Michigan and Fla):

Arkansas - 6
Florida - 27
Michigan - 17
Nevada - 5
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
Ohio - 20
Pennsylvania – 21


Interestingly, a good percentage of the republican leaning states, Chuck Todd mentioned that really, Obama is the only one capable of challenging in North Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and Louisiana, whereas Hillary would challenge in Florida or Arkansas. Her referred to her approach as a "One state solution", meaning she either picks up Ohio or Florida. Obama brings a completely different map into focus.

In any event, using Chuck Todd's map, a difference of 5 electoral votes at this stage of the campaign doesn't really seem to be a persuasive argument to convince the Supes to jump ship on Obama.

[Bread and Circus]

1. Obama polls better in Michigan and would beat her and McCain head to head here at this point.

[Texas Hill Country]

27. no, actually according to current polls Obama trails McCain by 1pt in MI and Clinton is tied.

[Radical Activist]

29. Polls won't measure a 30% increase in new black voters

Not in Michigan or Southern states.

[Zynx]

2. Calling Georgia and Louisiana targets is a pretty silly proposition.

I also doubt Hillary could win Arkansas.

[sfam]

4. Todd included right leaning and left leaning states, along with toss-ups...

Clearly, those three were right-leaning. His point was that Obama could cause enough trouble there that McCain would have to cover either by a VP selection or by spending resources there.

[Zynx]

7. Georgia is as in play for Obama as Tennessee was for Clinton: not much.

I respect Chuck Todd for most of his analysis, but not on this point.

[sfam]

8. Well again, I think he's a pretty good numbers guy. It gives us a comparison tool if nothing else

[milkyway]

18. Could Barr take enough votes from McCain to make Georgia competitive?

[Zynx]

20. Possible, but Georgia is a blood red Republican state.

This cannot be emphasized enough. What's more is that the demographic changes actually have not been favorable. It is a rapidly growing state, but they are upper middle class whites predominantly.

[sfam]

23. Upper middle class whites have become a Democratic base...

Yes, as strange as this seems the Dems have traded the republicans. The Dems now get a lot of the suburbs and the republicans get the rural poor in places like WV.

[Zynx]

25. Ummmm...No.

Republicans clean up among whites who make between 75,000 to 100,000, particularly in the South. Look at the collar counties of Atlanta.

[rufus dog]

37. and dems are now getting the over 100k vote! n/t

[Zynx]

39. Not in Georgia we're not.

[Orangepeel]

30. Obama won't win Georgia, but McCain will have to defend it anyway

There is a large African American population who will come out to vote and McCain will lose votes to Bob Barr. So even though Obama won't win, McCain will have to spend time and money that he won't be able to spend in PA, OH and MI.

[Dawgs]

35. Bullshit. I actually LIVE in Georgia, and know a little bit more than you on the state.

Obama CAN win here.

It makes me sick when people say he can't.

[Zynx]

36. Living there does not make one an expert on its politics.

I knew people who lived in Jim Sensenbrenner's district who swore Bryan Kennedy could knock him off. I happen to live there too, but I didn't need to in order to tell them that such a thing was impossible.

I've spoken with plenty of others that have told me such a thing is impossible. What makes Obama so much more likely to win in Georgia than any other Democrat that has run? Sure he might carry it if he gets 56-57% nationwide, but in a close election not a fucking chance.

[Johnny__Motown]

3. I also believe Michigan would go for Obama

[PseudoIntellect]

5. This is disillusionment to me. I thought Hillary was beating him by far in swing states.

That was all because of the standard talking points, though. The talking points that say Hillary has won more big states, more blue states, more primaries, more votes, etc, all of which are false.

[sfam]

6. Hillary's argument is a simple one - she can take either Ohio or Fla and ALL of Kerry's states...

While this may or may not be true, if we decided we would go with this, we might as well have skipped the voting process. Her set of arguments she puts forward, including the swing states, don't seem to be that convincing when you look at it.

[Texas Hill Country]

26. according to this she takes both...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May14.html



while Obama does not...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May14.html

[DeschutesRiver]

9. Thanks for that

I heard a news commentator make the remark that Obama had won his share of swing states, but that conversation went no further, and it made me wonder just how things stacked up. All I knew is that whatever Hillary said, it likely wasn't either accurate or the whole picture.

Was going to look this up on the slow boat dialup, so saved me time. So Hillary knows all of this (I presume, since she claims to be capable of being CIC), and just keeps shining on voters who likely don't keep up with this stuff by these omissions and fabrications. I don't like her style or tactics.

[sfam]

15. That was my concern as well. We shouldn't take ANY of Hillary's arguments at face value...

Now that the majority of the votes is no longer relevant (as Obama will win this), the next argument was sewn today - ONLY the swing states matter.

Hillary of course will have a VERY different map of swing states than Chuck Todd. Missouri won't be on it, neither will Wisconsin, etc.

[Gore1FL]

10. Chuck todd?

[sfam]

11. He's the MSNBC Political Director - the "numbers" guy, has a goatee...

I like him a lot. He generally keeps off the spin.

[Gore1FL]

12. He was called Chris in the earier post

just trying to make sure it was the same guy.

[sfam]

13. My apologies. Thanks for the catch...I was so focused on the numbers...that I...

stuck Tweety's first name with Chuck Todd's last name. I fixed the OP. Thanks again.

[Gore1FL]

14. Glad to be of assistance

Awesome news, no matter the name attached to it!

[rufus dog]

38. and a bit of a geek

also one of the best guys on cable. Honest and likable. Seems to be happy with his lot in life, not trying to climb the ladder!

[Anderson Perez]

16. Does Chuck Todd ever say anything favorable to Clinton?

Oh yeah, if he did that, Olbermann would stop inviting him to his show.

[sfam]

21. Yeah, he seemed to buy into her "One State" strategy. He said that...

Hillary probably could take either Ohio or Florida, and the rest of Kerry's coalition.

[milkyway]

17. Hillary would be completely unelectable if it weren't such a great year to be a Dem. She will

be playing with the same exact map as Kerry and Gore--whoever wins two out of three of Florida, Ohio, and PA wins the presidency. But get this--she'll have to do it with a weak African-American vote, thanks to her antics of this campaign.

Obama, on the other hand, changes everything. Ask Greg Davis, the loser repug in Missisippi tonight, how easy it is to win when running against Obama, even in a red Southern district.

[Quixote1818]

19. Obama now polls better in Michigan. Also, Nevada and New Mexico were near dead even. nt

[sfam]

22. Agreed, but so was Missouri...I think taking Chuck's map is reasonable to...

analyze Hillary's comment that she is winning all the swing states.

[ej510]

24. I believe that he could put GA,NC,VA, and SC in play.

[Zynx]

31. VA maybe and possible NC, though I doubt it. GA and SC, no fucking way.

[rucky]

28. This indicates nothing about the GE.

nothing. nada. zipzerozilch.

If it were 200-20 in favor of Obama, it would still say nothing. Primaries are not representative samples of the general voting population.

[sfam]

32. That's not my point. My point is that Hillary has NOT won all the "swing" states but Chuck's map...

as the arbitor. This may have absolutely nothing to do with the GE, but this IS the argument Hillary is making.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[sfam]

34. I donated $25 two days ago. Can I get one of those robots?