An Uncomfortable Truth: Hillary is our strongest candidate against McCain

[Apollo11]

I have been closely following the general election match-up numbers published by Rassmussen Reports.

It is a rolling poll (or "tracking poll") - updated every day.

Over the past two weeks, Hillary has been polling consistently better than Obama.

Over the past 7 days, Obama has had an average lead over McCain of just 1.4%.

Over the same period, Hillary has had an average lead over McCain of 4.3%

See: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

I know that superdelegates are also paying close attention to these national polls.

[democrattotheend]

1. Check the Real Clear Politics average

I just looked at that yesterday, and Clinton leads McCain by an average of 5 points, Obama by an average of 4.8 points. So they are basically tied against McCain.

[dkf]

19. Its 4.8 and 4.8 today. same same.

[datopbanana]

2. wrong

thanks for playing

[Doityourself]

15. lmao perfect answer

[mmonk]

3. If she wins by overthrow, she won't get enough GE support to win.

Nobody figures in that probability. Second, the GE campaign and debates haven't started.

[Apollo11]

7. What - you mean the general election is gonna be decided by debates!?

Someone should warn Senator Obama. You know how much he hates those televised debates! ;-)

[SteelPenguin]

11. All 20+ of them

[chascarrillo]

12. Yeah, he's only participated in, what, TWO DOZEN of them?

[cascadiance]

78. Maybe he figures he doesn't need to make up for her running out of money!

And getting a lot of the extra "campaign ads" for free. The way some of those were run and what questions were asked it certainly seemed like those like Stephanopolis and Gibson were doing campaign ads for her...

[mod mom]

8. If she does that she won't get enough to win back her senate seat in NY nt

[RichGirl]

37. It's always funny to me...

when someone on this board thinks that the entire general public is made up of political junkies, like us, who know everything we know. I know people who are really interested in politics who have totally tuned out and are just waiting for an announcement of who won. Go out there in the world and take a survey. Ask ten people about superdelegates and you'll get ten blank stares. They don't know, they don't have time for it, they aren't interested. If she got the nom they would simply know she won. They aren't going to get out their calculators and tally up superdelegates. LOL!

[SteelPenguin]

38. Totally

and by the same token those people aren't paying attention right now and any poll taking for a general election is nearly meaningless and based simply on name recognition.

[RichGirl]

51. I agree on the polls.

If you are right about name recognition, then that would give Hillary a better chance at beating McCain then Obama.

My view of Hillary's support is not based on polls. It is based on the number of votes she has gotten. Just because she is slightly behind Obama doesn't change the fact that millions of people have gone to the polls and cast their vote for her. The difference between her and Obama is minimal.

[GarbagemanLB]

75. The AA voters and youth voters would sure as hell know, and they would not turn out, costing

Hillary the election by reducing turnout in the metro areas where she needs to overcome the rural voters for McCain.

[splat]

45. 'Overthrow" of what? His game plan? Supers exist to rescue the party from a fading candidate

They were put in place after they were stuck with McGovern. Despite "endorsements" they are free to vote as they see fit at the convention for the candidate they think can win. That's their job.

[rodeodance]

54. yes, their job is to pick the strongest candidate for the GE.

[splat]

57. I loved the old contested conventions -- they're great TV

[rox63]

4. That must be why more and more superdelegates are endorsing Obama every day

It's only 8:00 AM, and Obama has already picked up two more SD's today.

Edit to add link about new Obama SD's: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5962867

[ej510]

5. Hillary can go shake a cow bell at wal-mart.

Obama will beat McCain. If he doesn't then America gets what it deserves. It's as simple as that.

[RichGirl]

44. No...

If Obama loses it's because we picked a candidate based on pie in the sky instead of solid experience and accomplishments, because we wanted a rock star hero to worship, not a qualified, capable person to take on a tough job, in tough times, because our candidate whines at attacks, refuses debates, instead of someone who knows it will be a huge fight and is ready to go in with both barrels loaded, who will debate anytime, anywhere on any subject and WIN.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

66. Whines?

"Enough with the speeches..."

Debate?

Tasini.

And don't get me started on "WIN."

:eyes:

[Summer of 41]

6. AGREE

Necessity not dream ticket.

[SteelPenguin]

9. Well there are a few arguments to that

Most people, unbelieveably but it's true, are not yet following the race, and those numbers are primarily based on name recognition. Once a campaign starts the independents need to be won over. Those numbers over around there being 10% undecided but while Obama has a chance to win them over and win the election 55-45, Clinton's numbers don't seem like they will budge with her numbers staying at that same level of suppport for long stretches, and other polls showing many of those independents far more reluctant to vote for her.

The second argument is that we need to select a candidate that WE want to see up for election, not who we think is the most electable. In the last election everyone rushed to Kerry because they thought he was more electable than Dean or Clark, etc and we saw how that turned out.

[Apollo11]

16. So you think people don't know who Barack Obama is?

Maybe that's why 76% of Democratic primary voters in West Virginia just rejected the "mathematical presumptive nominee"?

Because they just have no idea who the guy is? :eyes:

[Medusa]

28. Yeah, WVA where most voters aren't well educated

or well-informed.

[JoFerret]

87. We do need to stop the denigration

of our fellow citizens whatever their lack of, or perceived lack of, intelligence or education.
The superior tone is very distasteful and denies the reality of the progressive history and social change.

Classism is poisonous. Those who are underdisadvantaged should know better.

[SteelPenguin]

31. Most people? No they don't

Most people haven't even begun to pay attention yet. Far more people vote in the general election than do in the primaries. For these people they're going based on name recognition. My wife for instance was a 100% die hard Clinton supporter and wasn't really paying attention until the primary came to PA. She hadn't really been paying attention. She has never missed a vote in her life, and takes her responsibility serious, but just doesn't have the time/patience/inclination to follow a 6 month primary fight. If you had asked her prior to really paying attention her vote would have been for Clinton. After she started paying attention she changed her vote, albeit she didn't make up her mind until she was at the polling place.

So no, I don't think the general population really 'know' him yet. Not from lack of exposure, but lack of desire on their part to pay attention yet.

And there are other reasons that West Virginia went to Clinton, and never would go for either of them in the general election.

[NOLALady]

86. You're probably right.

[babylonsister]

10. If she's so strong, why don't the numbers reflect that? Nice try. nt

[RichGirl]

60. Why don't the numbers reflect it...you ask?

Because the namby pamby democrats don't want strength...they want hopes and dreams and rainbows and lollipops!

[sellitman]

65. If "Hopes and dreams and rainbows and lollipops" beat Hillary

Guess she wasn't as tough as you thought?

:think:

[babylonsister]

73. Namby pamby? Check this out, and weep:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5963280&mesg_id=5963280

[jefferson_dem]

13. Poll just released disputes this. Obama does better. He dominates among independents.

May 14, 2008 - Obama, Clinton Both Top McCain In November Face-Off, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Most Democrats Back Obama-Clinton 'dream Ticket'

Either one of the two Democratic contenders, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, leads the likely Republican presidential nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain 47 - 40 percent while Sen. Clinton is up 46 - 41 percent.

In an Obama-McCain matchup, independent voters back the Democrat 48 - 37 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, while women back Obama 49 - 36 percent. McCain leads 47 - 40 percent among white voters, while blacks back Obama 87 - 4 percent.

In a Clinton-McCain contest, independent voters split with 41 - 41 percent. Men go with McCain 46 - 42 percent while women back Clinton 51 - 36 percent. White voters back McCain 48 - 41 percent, the same margin as the Obama-McCain matchup, while black voters back Clinton 79 - 8 percent.

Among Democrats, Obama is ahead slightly as 45 percent say they want to see him win the nomination while 41 percent want to see Clinton as the nominee. And Democrats say 63 - 34 percent that Clinton should stay in the presidential race.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1177

[Apollo11]

20. "63%" of Democrats believe that Hillary should stay in the race!

Thanks for posting this! B-)

[bowens43]

27. So? The race is over hillary has been rejected.

Get over it.

[jefferson_dem]

34. If you look at the RCP Average, both Obama and Hillary lead McSame by 4.8%.

No problem. Cute change of subject. :hi:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

[mdmc]

14. If we just endorse McCain, we would be sure to win

He would beat Nader and Barr.

[rocktivity]

17. Head-to-head matchups aren't valid unless each side has only one head.

As long as there is a "choice" of Dem candidates versus Repug, you just can't get an honest read nationally.

:headbang:
rocknation

[elocs]

18. How and who made this "truth"? n/t

[Apollo11]

22. Numbers don't lie

At least - that is what Obama supporters are saying every single day here on DU! B-)

[globalvillage]

21. ABC/Washington Post poll

Has Obama beating McCain by 7 and Clinton over McCain by 3.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_051208.html?hpid=topnews

[bowens43]

23. No, she isn't.

Obama is obviously the stronger candidate. Only a fool would argue that the loser of the primary race is a stronger candidate.

IKt's over. Hillary has been rejected and rightfully so.

[indimuse]

24. she is the ONLY one to turn RED states BLUE!

Her #'s in WV were GE #'s NOT primary.Obama will never win the GE if the nom.

[bowens43]

26. bullshit

[beachmom]

30. Obama puts Colorado and other Western states in play. Hillary does not.

Also, Obama is performing better in Wisconsin than Hillary. It is up to voters to decide whether Hillary is more "electable". The verdict is nearly in that they have chosen Obama. Superdelegates are not going to override voters.

[indimuse]

49. Watch and LEARN.

:hi:

[Meshuga]

25. You are basing this over statistics in May of 2008

The election is in November. Let the focus of the election change and those numbers are going to be meaningless.

Keep repeating your mantra if it makes you feel better. There is nothing wrong with that.

[spanone]

29. an uncomfortable fantasy

[Ganja Ninja]

32. Here's another uncomfortable truth.

Hillary needed to win WV yesterday and all the remaining primaries by taking 75% of the vote in order to catch Obama in pledge delegates. She may win KY by the same margin she won VW but after that it's over. She'll lose in OR, MT & SD. The uncomfortable truth is she's going to the convention in second place in the pledge delegates race.

[GermanDem]

33. Simply not true

Obama does mucher better with independents, and even republicans than Hillary does. Where I live, in the South, a lot of people HATE Hillary with such passion, they would never vote for her in the GE. The polls right now are worthless once November rolls around.

[proud2BlibKansan]

35. And the last 7 days will determine the outcome of this election!

:sarcasm:

[onenote]

36. "I know that the superdelegates are paying close attention to these national polls"

Really? Then how come more and more superdelegates are coming out for Obama?

Since you "know" what the superdelegates are doing/thinking, could you get in touch with them and report back as to why so many of them are throwing their support to Obama?

[quantass]

39. Remind me again: How can she beat McCain if she cant beat Obama?

[splat]

46. No caucused to pack in the GE

[graycem]

40. You do realize

that Obama has been attacked in this primary while Hillary has been essentially skating by except for her own fuck-ups. She will not have the luxury of a fellow Democrat's restraint in a national campaign. NONE of their business dealings have effectively been in the news, the only reason many of us know about Colombia, Dubai, etc. is because we bother to look around on the internet. I find that argument ridiculous for that very reason.

[BeyondGeography]

41. Can Hillary afford to run for President?

[splat]

52. Sure, Bill can always easily make more money

[Phillycat]

42. Well, duh.

A little late to think about that now. :rofl:

[JTFrog]

43. Beautiful plumage! n/t

[berni_mccoy]

47. Laughable.

[randr]

48. How soon we forget the derision

and fervor the Clinton's evoke from the fundies. A continuation of past political division would bring us closer to a McCain presidency than anything else

[splat]

53. Funny how the economy makes us feel we're all in this together again

[Marrah_G]

50. I think so also, and that is my reason for supporting her over Obama

I want to win in November. I fear Obama will be eaten alive by the rovian machine

[rodeodance]

58. And we already know that the Repugs want Obama cause they see him as weaker than Hillary to

go up against McCain

[sellitman]

62. In a reverse Universe maybe.

Ask yourself why Hillary has become the star celebrity over at Fox Noise and with Rush, and Scaife.

If you come to the conclusion its because they like Obama so much then ask yourself the question again.

[MethuenProgressive]

59. I recommend this post!

:kick:

[bowens43]

63. that's crazy.

Obama has baggage, yes, but hillary has train cars full of baggage. They have been salivating over the idea of a hillary candidacy for years. Obama can hold his own, hillary can't.

[Marrah_G]

69. We all have our own opinions

[Lilith Velkor]

84. Yup.

Sure as the turnin' of the earth.

[Hepburn]

55. Reality Check....

....Obama historically polls better against McGrandpa.

But...don't let the facts get in your way, OK? :hi:

[rodeodance]

56. off to the greatest.

[baldguy]

61. If Hillary can't beat Obama, why do you think she can beat McCain?

The answer is: SHE CAN'T




He CAN!

[Tippy]

64. No, you are wrong

Do you folks really believe the Republicans will alow another Clinton in the WH? If you do. would you be interested in some ocean front property in Arizona? Republicans HATE the Clintons.

[splat]

67. Things change fast in hard times

[grrr050]

89. And they love Obama more?

What kind of support or proof do you have that the repubs will allow Barrack to occupy the Oval office? As racist as most of them are, dont think that they wont do everything in their power to prevent him to even get near the White House. I'm not saying I support their racist agenda but stop being fucking arrogant like you know what your talking about you narcissistic fool, that's how we lose election every four years.

[dionysus]

68. and then we all hopped on santa's sleigh with the tooth fairy and easter bunny and went to live in a

giant shoe...

[nichomachus]

70. GE Polls this far out are absolutely meaningless

In 1992, Bill Clinton came in a distant third in June polls.

[Apollo11]

74. You are right. We should never underestimate a Clinton.

:kick:

[mrreowwr_kittty]

76. But we should underestimate Obama, who is beating a Mighty Clinton right now.

:eyes:

[nichomachus]

79. No -- it has more to do with

people saying who they think they might vote for before the campaign has even started.

And, I still think there's a chance the Democrat will not be running against McCain. If the GOP thought there was even a snowball's chance that they could take it without McCain, they would find some way to get him out of the top spot -- and you can take that to the bank.

[saltpoint]

71. I think History will put the lie to that claim.

[Upton]

72. Quinnipiac poll

Obama leads McCain by 7%, Clinton leads by 5%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1177

[nomaco-10]

77. I'm a democrat dammit.....

and I'm sick of being told the only way we can win, is to be more like republicans. We have a great nominee at this point and you'll never convince me to buy into that crap. Furthermore, I will never get behind a candidate like lieberman, zell miller or hrc because guess what, I'm a democrat dammit!

[book_worm]

80. bunk in the end the racists in the Dem party will vote McCain but Obama will more than make up for

that with independent and enlightened republicans and the vast majority of democrats who will vote for the nominee no matter what.

[Texas Hill Country]

81. truth.

[MercutioATC]

82. Sure, run "sniper fire" against a war hero...

...see where that gets you.

[Scriptor Ignotus]

83. exactly -nt

[Lucky 13]

85. Our President isn't chosen by POLLS in MAY.

FAIL
:nuke:

[rucky]

88. How does Hillary trend as elections get closer?

How does Obama trend?

[Thrill]

90. Keep trying. Maybe just maybe you'll find someone to believe this nonsense

[EnviroBat]

91. When are you people going to realize that this polling

against McCain is completely meaningless. Until there is a nominee, there is bullshit.








That nominee, by the way, WILL be Barack Obama.

[krkaufman]

92. Utterly irrational ... to choose ONE polling company and only look at the very recent numbers.

Regardless, it is most unfortunate, then, that we'll be putting Obama up against McCain. This thing is over.

[sfam]

93. Keep repeating the same thing without basis...perhaps someone will believe you...

I doubt it though...

[stevietheman]

94. Since Obama is the nominee, these "what-if" scenarios with respect to polls...

that are so far out from the G.E. as to be worthless is not beneficial to the selection process. We don't choose nominees *only* on their perceived chances against the opposition candidate. And we don't trust polls this far out.

[AtomicKitten]

95. No, she's not.

Barack has the most of every metric (including delegates which is the actual metric that counts), his ground-game and fundraising are second to none, and the best ammunition the GOP has against him was proven to be kryptonite in the last three spectacular upsets in red state seats. He is best positioned to give McCain a run for his money with independents, a group Hillary runs very poorly with. He puts at least 10 red states into play. Plus the momentum of superdelegates is clearly in his favor.

Plus, and listen up here because this is the money point, she can't beat Barack. Please she has, um, her own issues that Barack has been polite enough not to point out. You should be grateful for that.

Hillary has no case. Period. It's over for her. Barack will be the Democratic nominee.

And, for the record, the longer Hillary stays in the race is directly commensurate with her status as a pariah within the party. For future reference, she is entirely responsible for how she is regarded.

[SoonerPride]

96. By November her campaign would be $150 million in debt.

She can't run or manage a campaign for shit and would get blown off the face of the earth by gramps mcsame.

[judasdisney]

97. JOHN EDWARDS polled strongest against any GOP candidate

http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/1520155/

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/12/11/93812/044

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/10/poll.head.to.head/index.html

[Douglas Carpenter]

98. a mute point:"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee"

and it is simply ludicrous to imagine that Sen. Clinton can catch up barring some cataclysmic event - according to the same exact polling firm; Rasmussen:

""Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. "

"At the moment, Senator Clinton’s team is busily trying to convince Superdelegates and pundits that she is more electable than Barack Obama. For reasons discussed in a separate article, it doesn’t matter. Even if every single Superdelegate was convinced that the former First Lady is somewhat more electable than Obama, that is not enough of a reason to deny him the nomination.

With this in mind, Rasmussen Reports will soon end our daily tracking of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama."

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/rasmussen_reports_to_stop_tracking_democratic_race

[Douglas Carpenter]

99. the same exact polling firm (Rasmussen) gives Sen. Obama a 61.1% chance of winning in November

" Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 61.1% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

"State polls for the Obama-McCain match-up have recently been released for Virginia, North Carolina, Oregon and Michigan (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. "

"New polling data shows that Democrats are now trusted more than Republicans on all ten key issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports. Democrats even have the edge on national security issues. This comes as confidence in the War on Terror has dropped sharply over the past month. Just 22% give the President good marks for his handling of the situation in Iraq. "

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. "

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Kahuna]

100. Hillary hasn't been savaged by distractions and the GOP who love her

for the moment like Barack has. If she had all the negative press that was contrived against Obama (Wright and "bitter") she would be down a few points too.