In case some of you Hillary supporters are worrying about Obama defeating McCain, read up:
May 08, 2008
POBLANO'S MODEL
My latest NationalJournal.com column, about the remarkable success of the non-poll statistical model created by Poblano of FiveThirtyEight.com, is now online.
-- Mark Blumenthal
May 08, 2008 in The 2008 Race
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Black, Youth and Latino Turnout, and Obama's Electoral Map
This analysis is prepared in conjunction with Progress Illinois, which has posted a separate article on the findings. The Progress Illinois blog is relatively new to the scene -- just as mine is. But it's extremely well designed and extremely well written, and I hope that you'll get in the habit of checking it regularly. Thanks to Josh and the rest of the gang for their assistance.
As the Democratic primaries come to their slow, if increasingly certain conclusion, the media narrative has tended to focus on the alleged inadequacies of each candidate: Hillary Clinton's lack of support among black voters, or Barack Obama's supposed inability to resonate with certain types of white voters. What has been lost, however, is a story that could turn out to have far more relevance for the general election campaign in the fall: the emergence of a "big tent" Democratic electorate that has increasingly begun to reflect the full diversity of America.
What follows is a table comparing the composition of the Democratic primary electorate in 21 states in which exit polling data is available in both 2004 and 2008. We focus on three particular groups: black voters, Latino voters, and young voters. As a fraction of the Democratic electorate, African-American turnout has increased from 19.8 percent to 21.5 percent -- a 7.8 percent increase. Latino turnout has increased from 5.3 percent to 7.5 percent -- a 41.9 percent increase. And turnout among voters aged 18-29 has increased from 9.0 percent to 13.7 percent -- a 52.4 percent increase.
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The ability to bring new voters to the polls remains Barack Obama's most significant electoral advantage, both relative to Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Indeed, current polling may already be underestimating Obama's strength against McCain if it does not account for improved turnout among Democratic-leaning groups like young voters and African-Americans, who have participated in record numbers in this year's primaries. If Obama can parlay that advantage with a strong ground game, he very much could redraw the electoral map.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/black-youth-and-latino-turnout-and.htmlObama's VOTE FOR CHANGE unprecedented 50 state voter registration drive
We can change Washington if more Americans get involved, get registered and show up to vote on November 4th. Vote for Change is an unprecedented 50-state voter registration and mobilization drive. To kick off the event, the campaign held more than 100 events across the country on May 10th. Obama volunteers will register new voters as the start of a six-month voter registration drive.
We can send a powerful message to the special interests that dominate the old politics if millions of people get registered to vote. Recent voter registration drives have registered more than 200,000 new Democrats in Pennsylvania, more than 165,000 new Democrats in North Carolina, and more than 150,000 new Democrats in Indiana. Those numbers just scratch the surface of what's possible.
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http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/vfchome 
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