If Obama wins Oregon I think he's unstoppable

[Tom Rinaldo]

If not the wheels on his bandwagon might still get wobbly. Obama should win Oregon. I think he will win Oregon easily but all he has to do is win it. That's what he needs to do in order to put a 40 point loss in West Virginia and another likely loss in Kentucky behind him. If Obama wins Oregon than the conventional wisdom about there being Clinton States and Obama States will remain conventional wisdom. The only danger left for him at this point is if Obama starts losing in places where he is expected to win easily, and Clinton closes with a clean sweep other than her loss in North Carolina.

[dkf]

1. He needs 19 pledged delegates.

She has to get 91% in order to win.

That looks unstoppable to me.

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. A Clinton pledged delegate defected to Obama

It could happen in the other direction, but Super Delegate defections are a more plausible potential threat to Obama's nomination.

[Kittycat]

6. He's not even counting those. He will handily get 19 delegates out of OR

the minimum he'll get is 26 - but likely far more.

[cali]

2. I think that's about right. Obama's margin in OR is increasing

According to the latest poll, he's up 20 over Clinton there. I think he'll probably win it by 15+. And I think he'll win SD and MN handily and make it close in PR.

[Thrill]

3. Hillary knows she has no chance in Oregon. You can tell with Terry last night

continuing to mention Kentucky and not Oregon. Nevermind they vote on the same day

[John Q. Citizen]

8. oregon is voting as we keyboard. They count the votes next Tues, but they are all cast by mail,

aren't they?

[Arugula Latte]

33. Yes indeed. We've had our ballots and voter guides for a couple weeks.

Most people mail in their ballots, but if it is getting "too close for comfort," i.e. it's a couple days before the deadline and might not make it to be postmarked in time, you can drop it off at a designated site (library, etc.).

[Justitia]

26. LOL - Terry McAwful NEVER mentions Oregon & I think that is hysterical - LOL -eom

[Renew Deal]

5. The risk for both of them has been losing at home

since Super Tuesday. I agree.

[SoonerPride]

7. It is already over and has been for some time.

Playing out the clock still doesn't erase a 40 point deficit on the scoreboard, even if you let the other team score a meaningless 4th quarter score in the waning minutes of the game.

The only people that get mad at that point are the bookies.

This one was done in March.

[ProSense]

10. You have to love the title of the OP though, moving the goal posts after every contest n/t

[Tom Rinaldo]

11. You might want to know what you are talking about before commenting

Maybe you have your own goalposts set up in your backyard, but the opinion I expressed here is perfectly consistent with what I have been saying at DU and elsewhere since well before the North Carolina and Indiana primaries. It happens to be my opinion, my goal posts if you will. Yours may differ.

[SoonerPride]

12. It makes no difference who you are and what you've been saying.

Math is math.

This race was over 2 months ago.

Playing out the clock doesn't change the scoreboard.

Time to focus on the general election.

[Tom Rinaldo]

14. Math? That includes Subtraction, doesn't it?

Personally I think that the race is almost over and that Obama will be our nominee. I agree with those who ask Clinton to stick to a positive message about herself and a negative one about McCain from here on out. I think it would take an earthquake for Clinton to win Oregon, but if she does, that is exactly what it would feel like; an earthquake. The dynamics of the race would be severely shaken by an Obama loss in Oregon. Super Delegates can shift with the tide if it is strong enough.

[SoonerPride]

17. So now Oregon is a make or break state?

If Obama lost Oregon that would signal the end?

OK.

Hope Fantasyland is nice this time of year. Maybe I'll come visit this weekend.

The game is over and we're just playing out the clock. You can hope or dream that a late TD changes the outcome, but this one ain't going to overtime. The lead at this point is insurmountable. Period. She has to win EVERY STATE by 90% AND get 80% of the supers to go with her. The game is over. Get that through your head. IT IS OVER.

June 4th hits and all the supers in Obama's pocket will be unleashed and that will be that.

With or without a win in any particular state from here on out, it makes no difference whatsoever.

None.

[Tom Rinaldo]

22. That's not what I said, is it?

I said the wheels on his band wagon could begin to wobble if he lost Oregon. Do I have to translate that for you? OK, it means that an element of doubt about whether he is our certain nominee may reenter the picture if Obama loses Oregon.

I said it is a make or break state for Hillary to win Oregon, not Obama.

[SoonerPride]

24. Element of doubt? Really?

Math is math, my friend.

Win or lose, there is no doubting the cold hard math of the race.

It was over 2 months ago.

He could lose ALL of the remaining contests and it makes no difference AT ALL.

Math is math.

Period.

[Tom Rinaldo]

27. Addition and Subtraction

The SD's giveth and they could taketh away. Highly unlikely but in an unlikely scenario (Clinton winning Oregon) it is possible.

[SoonerPride]

30. Well sure, we could learn tomorrow that Obama is an alien from planet Xenu

And all of them could switch to Clinton. Sure. Why not?

Back here in Realityvlle, the contest has long since been decided and the supers are leaving Hillary and flocking to Obama at a rate of 100 to 5.

Game over.

[Tom Rinaldo]

32. He could still win the Catholic vote if he was though

The Vatican said so :)

[ProSense]

13. It's over, that's what I know. You can have your opinion. n/t

[ampad]

29. Yup

This thing has been over months ago.

[backscatter712]

9. He's already unstoppable.

In Oregon, he'll get that magic 1,627th pledged delegate and thus earn that mathematical majority.

And there's no way the superdelegates won't go the same way.

[shomino]

15. More like "when" he wins Oregon.

[Tom Rinaldo]

16. I will be shocked if you are wrong, and yes that would end it. n/t

[underpants]

18. If his campaign runs at even 75% of how it has run so far he is a lock

he has run possibly the most perfect campaign ever in American politics. The media has "left him alone" for two reasons
1. the lilywhite upper levels of the media have no idea how to talk about "the black guy"
2. He hasn't given them anything to feed on.

[bigtree]

19. It will be an important milestone for his campaign

[Guaranteed]

20. He's already unstoppable. None of the coming primaries are going

to change anything, either way.

[SparkyMac]

21. Looking at yesterday's returns, I'd say the Illinois Illusion has been stopped

[GarbagemanLB]

28. Yes, we had the old, dumb, white state have its say last night. Now we look to more advanced states.

[grantcart]

23. And since it is by mail perhaps most of the ballots have been mailed already

[Tom Rinaldo]

25. A lot of them have anyway, which should help Obama

I really doubt he can lose Oregon, and a win would be a decisive win there for him, as long as it is by at least one percent anyway. But should Obama somehow lose Oregon, the fact that a lot of people probably already voted for him there before Clinton's WV landslide would be spun against him.

[Reader Rabbit]

31. Hillary's getting a lot of publicity here.

A local radio station (KINK, 101.9 FM) did an extensive interview with Senator Clinton, and they played it throughout the morning drive time today. I emailed to find out if they were going to have an interview with Obama, as well. They responded that they had repeatedly contacted the Obama campaign about interviews, but no one had responded.

Obama supporters might want to address that or contact their headquarters about that.